Pre-Game Talk: Week to give thanks (Dal, @Min, Cgy)

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Unfortunately they're playing themselves into the worst possible spot for a lot of us fans.

We'll be just outside of the playoffs when it's all said and done, but also stuck with a 1st round pick that just misses out on all the elite talent at the Top.


My ideal result now is that we stay in the playoff hunt right up until the deadline. Sakic sells off a couple guys(Comeau most notably, but also maybe Bernier and Barbie) and we slowly fade just a little bit down the stretch. And up picking the bottom half of the Top 10 where some high quality talent is still available. But also get to play meaningful hockey into the middle of March at least.

 

[CobraAcesS]

Unfortunately they're playing themselves into the worst possible spot for a lot of us fans.

We'll be just outside of the playoffs when it's all said and done, but also stuck with a 1st round pick that just misses out on all the elite talent at the Top.


My ideal result now is that we stay in the playoff hunt right up until the deadline. Sakic sells off a couple guys(Comeau most notably, but also maybe Bernier and Barbie) and we slowly fade just a little bit down the stretch. And up picking the bottom half of the Top 10 where some high quality talent is still available. But also get to play meaningful hockey into the middle of March at least.

1st choice - Just miss the playoffs win the lottery

2nd choice - make the playoffs

3rd choice - pick in the top 5 due to "fading" down the stretch regardless of lottery results

4th choice - pick around 12th

 

[dahrougem2]

Meh, call me crazy but I'd rather they make the playoffs than win the lottery.

 

[RoyIsALegend]

Meh, call me crazy but I'd rather they make the playoffs than win the lottery.

I would usually agree with you, but not in this situation. Drafting Dahlin means a lot more than 4-6 playoff games.

 

[Foppberg]

I'll take drafting Dahlin over playoffs too. He would solve so so much long term.

 

[dahrougem2]

Maybe he might, and this might be the homer in me coming out because we've only been able to witness 23 playoff games since the original lockout. But I'm a firm believer in this team needing to learn how to win and learn how to play when the games have more pressure added. These kids need playoff hockey.

 

[Freudian]

Even if we are really pessimistic, Avs are 5th to 10th worst team in the league. These are the odds for teams in those spots of getting 1st overall. It's such a long shot it's not worth cheering or hoping for.

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
31st	18.0	16.0	14.1	51.9
30th	12.5	12.1	11.6	33.7	30.1
29th	10.5	10.4	10.3	12.2	39.1	17.6
28th	9.5	9.5	9.6	2.3	23.8	35.5	9.9
27th	8.5	8.6	8.8		7.0	32.8	28.9	5.3
26th	7.6	7.8	8.0			14.1	38.2	21.6	2.7
25th	6.7	7.0	7.2				23.1	39.7	15.0	1.3
24th	5.8	6.1	6.4					33.3	38.1	9.7	0.6
23rd	5.4	5.7	6.0						44.1	33.0	5.5	0.2
22nd	4.5	4.8	5.1							55.9	26.8	2.8	0.1
21st	3.3	3.6	3.8								67.1	20.8	1.3	0.0
20th	2.7	2.9	3.2									76.2	14.5	0.5	0.0
19th	2.2	2.4	2.6										84.1	8.6	0.1
18th	1.8	2.0	2.2											90.9	3.2
17th	1.0	1.1	1.2												96.7

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[StayAtHomeAv]

Meh, call me crazy but I'd rather they make the playoffs than win the lottery.

You crazy.

 

[Pokecheque]

I don't think it should be presented as "Drafting Dahlin vs. Making the Playoffs."

You have to be willing to put up with the quality of hockey we witnessed last season, or what's being displayed right now in Buffalo, in order to maximize the chance to get him 1st overall. And as it was proven by the Avs' tank job and Buffalo's a couple year's back, that doesn't guarantee you get the player/pick you wanted.

That can do damage as well. How great do you think that locker room was last year? It obviously wasn't great, as one key player said he wanted out. How great do you think it is in the Sabres' room right now?

Conversely, it's not like a playoff appearance in and of itself is a waste. You can build off of success, so long as you recognize it as only a step in the right direction and not an arrival.

So...no, it's not magically getting 1st overall vs. a one-and-done playoff appearance.

I don't think the Avs have to "waste" any more years. They can be competitive without mortgaging the future. I'm not going to call this season a failure if they fall short of the playoffs, but I will if the bottom falls out and they stumble once more into a lottery pick.

So, yes...sign me up for Playoffs instead of Dahlin. Because I'm not willing to put up with what it would take to get Dahlin. Not again.

 

[Lonewolfe2015]

My ideal scenario is the Avs play themselves into a 9th-10th spot, competing each night but just generally still not quite there to be a real playoff team. The kids fight hard, show effort and it's not a lost season. But injuries stack up and development is still needed. So the Avs trade off the vets, add another few picks and land somewhere around 9th-11th finish in the conference. Respectable improvement but not ideal.

They hit on the lottery in some way, 1st - 3rd pick. Next season the kids mature, we add a free agent or two to fill in the gaps and hit the ground running with more development and perhaps a Jost who is ready. Maybe even Makar.

I would love to see the playoffs, but I don't want to see the Avs put everything into making it that we trade a 2nd, Wood or we overestimate what the team is capable of. Only if the team truly earns it do I feel it's a good thing, sneaking into 8th seed or renting the players needed is a waste.

 

[Foppa Frossa]

Getting 1OA worked wonderfully last year. No thanks.

 

[Ararana]

Yeah they're not drafting top 5, people need to get over that already. Dhalin is a pipedream, folks. It doesn't matter if the Avs start to fade, there are at least 3-4 teams proving they are WAY worse than them this year. And no way I'm putting any hope into actually winning the lottery. We're not Edmonton/Toronto *puts on conspiracy tin foil hat*

*I guess I'll put a caveat here that if two of EJ, Varly, or Mack go down for an extended amount of time than yeah I can see us tanking to the bottom real quick.

Like EdAVSfan said, they're not really stealing games like they have in the past, they've been earning their wins. More time together and more development for the kids is only going to help. They can and most likely will fade a bit, but not enough at this point.

They're either sneaking into the post season or draft 8-15. I have more faith the Ottawa pick will be top 15 than I do ours will be top 5.

 

[SaltySkywalker]

My best case scenario is we make the playoffs and then manage to couple some assets picks together to move up into a meaningful place in the draft. Idk though, the individual picks/assets may be more valuable to us individually. Hard to say. If we are gonna barely miss the playoffs then I really think we should do something to move up to take our guy, whoever that may be.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I agree that the dream of drafting Dahlin is extremely unlikely and talking about it happening is kind of silly. Though I also disagree with the people who think that because of this we shouldn't even be talking about Dahlin period like some have suggested in the draft thread and other threads. He's the top prospect in the draft and still worth talking about even if we're unlikely to get him.


That said, this draft isn't just the Dahlin draft. There's still a lot of really talented players just behind him that the Avs have a real chance at being able to draft. Svechnikov(Though likely in the same realm as Dahlin really), Boqvist, Zadina, Tkachuck, Hughes. The list goes on. Just because we miss out on Dahlin and do end up picking in the 6-10 range doesn't mean we're not getting a potential core piece to this team.

 

[McMetal]

What people are missing is that if we see this team race to the bottom again, that's going to mean that MacKinnon, Girard, Rantanen, Landy, and Barrie all regress as players, and some of our prized prospects will be busting. You can't hope for personal growth as players but still have them play bad enough hockey to get a high draft pick.

It really looks like this team is not going to be bad enough to get Dahlin at this point 1/4 of the way through the season. The Avs just picked the wrong year to suck. Given the choice between a bigger chance to draw a lottery pick or a lot of positive development and a look at the playoffs, I think I can let Dahlin go.

 

[Foppberg]

Basically where I stand on it is that I would love to see us continue to be playing the way we're playing, if that leads to the playoffs, I'll be ecstatic. But... If we continue to play the way we're playing and miss the playoffs, I'll be equally as happy. Because either way I feel like we're getting valuable experience about winning, if we make the playoffs they have that under their belt, if they closely miss the playoffs they know how they have to play to get in + a lottery chance at a top pick. If last years lottery showed anything it's that now it's a crap shoot on who can win the lottery.

 

[tigervixxxen]

why is it even a choice? Play the kids and see what happens. I'd prefer to see true growth over a miracle run but if it happens then it happens. I hope every night they do well collectively and individually. There will be plenty of options in the draft with both of our picks. I'm not obsessed with winning the lottery or playoffs. They'll probably do neither and that's ok.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I feel like Sakic has already done a good thing to help rectify us not getting a potential Top 5 pick this year as well.


We might not get a chance at Dahlin/Svech but have already added a tonne of extra assets to the organization and prospects that have upsided to look forward to. Especially Girard, but Kamenev and Bowers are good prospects as well. And we have another 1st round pick this year to look forward to also. We might not get the truly elite talent available, but we're gonna have 2 cracks at finding the good players just below those elite talents.

Not to mention another 2nd round pick, and another 3rd round pick in 2019.

 

[Lonewolfe2015]

Yeah they're not drafting top 5, people need to get over that already.

Anything can happen... it's just November. Not to mention the draft lottery was crazy last year, so anything can happen with the lottery.

I don't want the Avs to tank, but I do think the Avs can't afford to not hit on a huge prospect this draft. It's the same situation as 2013-14. Dropped low and picked up a good talent. Between 2012 and 2014 NHL drafts we should have had at least two core players and a ton of supporting players if the Avs were going to load up with the existing youth at the time. They hit on MacK and we're still waiting to see anything of note from the rest of those draft classes. The fact we added Kerfoot and he immediately became our best player across 3 draft classes (outside MacK) is scary. More NHL games were played from players we drafted who left the organization than we kept.

Over the past 3 drafts things are looking up, we've got Rants, Jost and Makar. Rants was a hit. This year our 3 people become Jost, Makar and Player X. Two of them need to become core players. Or we need to see someone else beat the odds (Timmins? Meloche?). Otherwise it'll be the same thing and we'll be good but never good enough.

 

[Avs_19]

Some MacKinnon talk on the PDOcast today (starts around the 17:00 minute mark):

 

[Nalens Oga]

It really looks like this team is not going to be bad enough to get Dahlin at this point 1/4 of the way through the season. The Avs just picked the wrong year to suck. Given the choice between a bigger chance to draw a lottery pick or a lot of positive development and a look at the playoffs, I think I can let Dahlin go.

There's an easy way to tank....trade your goalie. Varly has what, two years left? Move him, he's not likely our goalie of the future anyways. Or just wait for an injury tbh because that's more likely knowing him lol. We're probably a 75-85 point team with Varly, we go to a 60-70 point team without him which should be enough to be in the bottom three or four in the lottery and that's all I ask for this year. Don't have to finish last but at least be high enough to still have a chance of winning or getting a high pick if other teams win it.

I also think player development via one first round playoff exit is vastly overrated. Besides, the way we're headed right now, we probably aren't making the playoffs and we aren't finishing at the bottom either, we're in that dreaded 8-14th last zone.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

Put me in the camp that would prefer playoffs to Dahlin for these reasons:
1. The odds of getting him are slim.
2. To have better chance of getting him would mean we are having another bad year.
3. This team need to learn how to win and there isn't a better way for that than playoffs hockey. Even with an early exit playoffs hockey makes you hungry for more and a later exit the year after.

The only thing I'm afraid of with making the playoffs is to become buyers at the TDL. As long as we don't buy and let the kids show us what they have for this year I'll be happy. With the way they are playing right now and a few guys coming back (Lindholm, Jost, and later on Kamemev) I think they can make it but if they don't I want them to pick 8th at best before the lottery. This will at least show improvement and still have a very good pick. Picking better than 8th will mean we had a pretty bad rest of the season. More than anything I want to keep seeing improvement and let the chips fall where they do.

 

[McMetal]

There's an easy way to tank....trade your goalie. Varly has what, two years left? Move him, he's not likely our goalie of the future anyways. Or just wait for an injury tbh because that's more likely knowing him lol. We're probably a 75-85 point team with Varly, we go to a 60-70 point team without him which should be enough to be in the bottom three or four in the lottery and that's all I ask for this year. Don't have to finish last but at least be high enough to still have a chance of winning or getting a high pick if other teams win it.

I also think player development via one first round playoff exit is vastly overrated. Besides, the way we're headed right now, we probably aren't making the playoffs and we aren't finishing at the bottom either, we're in that dreaded 8-14th last zone.

Intentionally tanking by trading your goalie tells your entire team "I want you to fail". The locker room looks like it's finally a fun place to be again, you would risk making it sour just for the off chance at a generational defenseman? The team needs to learn how to win. That doesn't mean going out and trading for rentals, but publicly sabotaging them in an obvious way like that will really demoralize these young players. Particularly MacKinnon and Landeskog, who clearly are tired of waiting to win.

Not to mention, I wasn't saying that playoffs were what was going to develop the players. You can't hope for MacK to become a PPG center, Rantanen to build on his rookie season, Landeskog to grow into a true leader, and all of our prospects to prove they belong in the NHL, and then simultaneously hope for a high pick, because if all those good things happen, the pick will definitely not be top ten. We'll be too good to fail.

 

[henchman21]

If the season ended today, the Avs would have the 11th pick (obviously without winning the lottery). If they had lost the Wings game instead of coming back, they’d be in line to pick 6th. To say the Avs are out of the top 5 woods is way too premature. Especially with the teams in the 16-23 point range right now.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

I'd love playoff hockey. I don't think it's reasonably possible but if they pull it off I will be beyond happy. As long as it doesn't change the plan. Based on Sakic/Kroenke's offseason interviews I feel they know where they are regardless of the success of this season so I feel confident in them not believing in any false hope.