NFL GDT: Week 15
- Thread starter Marc the Habs Fan
- Start date
SJSharksfan39
Registered User
Yes. Hopefully Brock has the game he had on Sunday and Johnson plays the 4th quarter because the 49ers will have the division wrapped up by then.
This is a game I think Seattle has to sell out to stop the run and place their CB on an island vs Ayiuk and #15. No Deebo, so that helps Seattle in the pass game. SF pass game more short routes that rely on YAC than throwing the ball 15 yards plus down the field.
misterchainsaw
Preparing PHASE TWO!
Using the playoff machine, 538's game predictions (based on their QB + ELO model), and a random number generator, I simmed the remainder of the season 10 times to see what the results would be. Here is the average playoff tree over 10 runs:
AFC
1. Kansas City (won #1 seed 5 out of 10 times, but never was lower than #2)
2. Buffalo (won AFC East 8/10 times, and was #1 5 times, but dropped to #3 once and all the way down to #6 once)
3. Baltimore (won AFC North 8/10 times)
4. Tennessee (won AFC South 10/10 times - only two sims were close)
5. Cincinnati (#5 seed 6/10 times and also won the north four times. Never lower than #5)
6. Miami (won AFC East 2/10 times, 5th once, 6th 3 times, 7th 3 times, and only missed once)
7. LA Chargers (#6 3 times, #7 twice, missed 5 times...which barely beats out....
ALSO QUALIFIED AT LEAST ONCE:
New England - #7 5 times, missed 5 times.
NY Jets - #6 the only time they made it.
NFC
1. Philadelphia - #1 seed and NFC North winner 9/10 times. Dallas took it once.
2. Minnesota - #2 seed 8/10 times, and #3 twice
3. San Francisco - Reverse of Minnesota. #3 8/10 times, #2 twice.
4. Carolina - Pipped Tampa Bay by winning the South 6/10 times (ahahahahahah)
5. Dallas - #5 9/10 times, top seed once.
6. Washington - #6 7/10 times, #7 seed once, missed twice
7. Seattle - #6 3/10 times, #7 five times, missed twice.
ALSO QUALIFIED AT LEAST ONCE
Tampa Bay - won NFC South 4 times
NY Giants - #7 seed twice, missed 8 times
Detroit - #7 seed twice, missed 8 times.
The model really doesn't like the either NYC team - the Giants certainly have a tough schedule coming in, but so does Washington. New England and LA Chargers is basically a dead tie for #7 after 10 runs - the only difference being the Chargers got to #6 a few times when they made it, while NE was always #7.
AFC
1. Kansas City (won #1 seed 5 out of 10 times, but never was lower than #2)
2. Buffalo (won AFC East 8/10 times, and was #1 5 times, but dropped to #3 once and all the way down to #6 once)
3. Baltimore (won AFC North 8/10 times)
4. Tennessee (won AFC South 10/10 times - only two sims were close)
5. Cincinnati (#5 seed 6/10 times and also won the north four times. Never lower than #5)
6. Miami (won AFC East 2/10 times, 5th once, 6th 3 times, 7th 3 times, and only missed once)
7. LA Chargers (#6 3 times, #7 twice, missed 5 times...which barely beats out....
ALSO QUALIFIED AT LEAST ONCE:
New England - #7 5 times, missed 5 times.
NY Jets - #6 the only time they made it.
NFC
1. Philadelphia - #1 seed and NFC North winner 9/10 times. Dallas took it once.
2. Minnesota - #2 seed 8/10 times, and #3 twice
3. San Francisco - Reverse of Minnesota. #3 8/10 times, #2 twice.
4. Carolina - Pipped Tampa Bay by winning the South 6/10 times (ahahahahahah)
5. Dallas - #5 9/10 times, top seed once.
6. Washington - #6 7/10 times, #7 seed once, missed twice
7. Seattle - #6 3/10 times, #7 five times, missed twice.
ALSO QUALIFIED AT LEAST ONCE
Tampa Bay - won NFC South 4 times
NY Giants - #7 seed twice, missed 8 times
Detroit - #7 seed twice, missed 8 times.
The model really doesn't like the either NYC team - the Giants certainly have a tough schedule coming in, but so does Washington. New England and LA Chargers is basically a dead tie for #7 after 10 runs - the only difference being the Chargers got to #6 a few times when they made it, while NE was always #7.
TheGreenTBer
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as a bengals fan I'm all for it lol (now watch us lose to the titans in the playoffs)
i would be so disappointed if tom brady misses the playoffs. by that i mean i will laugh hysterically (now watch them beat us this week)
misterchainsaw
Preparing PHASE TWO!
Yeah as a Bills fan I'd probably prefer to see New England in the first round than LA (although LA would be in for a much greater weather shock)...but I'm fine with letting you guys deal with the Chiefs in the divisional round this year
TheGreenTBer
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LA...you never know what you're going to get with them but they do have a QB that can make plays. The Patriots...if you get in front of them they simply can't catch up unless you self-destruct, and while the Bills definitely have a history of doing so they own the Pats right now pending Allen's health.Yeah as a Bills fan I'd probably prefer to see New England in the first round than LA (although LA would be in for a much greater weather shock)...but I'm fine with letting you guys deal with the Chiefs in the divisional round this year
I don't think we beat KC if we face them again. They'll be out for revenge big-time, and while the Titans would also be out for revenge they're not on the same planet as KC. We'd have a good chance against them.
Baltimore v.s. Miami I don't know, there's a lot of health-related and other variables with that one as things stand today.
Maybe it's because i'm pessimistic as shit, but as a Miami fan "1 miss" reads more like 11 times lol.
They're not beating Buffalo in Buffalo. I would have said that before rough stretch Tua has been on given the time of year + weather would have always been an advantage to the Bills. But now? I'm expecting an asswhooping.
Then they close out the schedule against the Jets and Pats, both of whom will likely be fighting for the playoffs right down to the last second of week 18.
I still think they get in but it isn't going to be pretty. I've also seen this story play out way too many times lol.
Edit: Also that NFC South result is ****ing hilarious lmao.
Baltimore vs Miami would come down to who can f*** up the least. Neither team can play defense particularly well unless they're facing a trash can QB, and both offenses at the moment appear to be incredibly one dimensional. Lamar absolutely torched them earlier in the year and i expect he would do so again.
In terms of ranking the Dolphins chances against teams;
Buffalo: Forget about it. Miami has historically never done well when they have to travel to Buffalo in the colder parts of the year and i don't expect that to change
Kansas City: Call me crazy, but this would probably be a really good matchup. Mahomes is prone to making errors when he feels like he has to win the game on his arm and the Dolphins definitely have the horses to get into, and potentially win a shootout if need be.
Baltimore: Also a decent matchup but Baltimore's run heavy/QB scramble offense would likely blow the doors off the Dolphins defense with how blitz heavy it is.
Tennessee: The only team i feel 100% confident in saying they would beat. Tannehill is a career loser.
Last edited:
Snow will be removed from the field before the game. But temperature and falling snow during the game more impactful.
TheGreenTBer
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Growing up in Bills territory, we used to endlessly mock any Floridians that dared venture into our neighborhood in the winter. Anyone that came for the games was a snowball target.
Then I moved to Miami, and I understood. That one year when it was 85 degrees, on Black Friday...at 2:30 in the f***ing morning? Yeah, I got it. You get used to never feeling anything even remotely cool, as the average January high is like 77 or 78 degrees. I miss Miami in January.
Then I moved to Miami, and I understood. That one year when it was 85 degrees, on Black Friday...at 2:30 in the f***ing morning? Yeah, I got it. You get used to never feeling anything even remotely cool, as the average January high is like 77 or 78 degrees. I miss Miami in January.
SwordsgoneWild
WhenyougazeintotheabysstheBuffaloSabresgazeback
TheGreenTBer
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I always tell people it's all about your proximity to the ocean in FL, or lack thereof.
Hottest part of the state in the summer from my experience is the inland corridor from Tallahassee eastward to Lake City and then southeast to about Orlando or Ocala. No ocean breeze to save you, just agony. But you do get two cool-ish months in Tallahassee at least. Gainesville might be the worst of all, both temperature-wise and the fact that f*** UF TIMES INFINITY.
I have lived both on Brickell Ave right on the coast in Miami (an absolute paradise, and not cheap) and just a little bit inland in Coral Gables (feels a BILLION times hotter) and jts amazing what a difference the ocean makes if you're right on the coast.
misterchainsaw
Preparing PHASE TWO!
Yeah, same phenomon that makes us go out in shorts when it hits 45 for the first time in February. It's just been so cold it feels like paradise.
TheGreenTBer
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I had a friend in college from Long Beach, CA. I remember her vividly saying "I like the cold!" when I met her in August my freshman year. My response was "give it time."
In January, we had a -35 wind chill one day and she's literally crying. After comforting her (I'm not a COMPLETE asshole) she confirmed to me that she was wrong and I was right.
misterchainsaw
Preparing PHASE TWO!
I honestly can't even manage living in the northern reaches of the midwest (talking like northern ND and MN). It's regularly like 20 degrees colder there than in the northeast. Sure they don't get as much snow but good lord.
TheGreenTBer
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Prarie cold is brutal. Just brutal.
The worst outside of Antarctica are some small villages in Russia that average around -50F in January. Not the low, the daily average, and I'm not talking wind chill. f***ing lunatics.
SwordsgoneWild
WhenyougazeintotheabysstheBuffaloSabresgazeback
There is a game on. I forgot.
All of this weather talk is making me wish we get a damn cool front down here already.
All of this weather talk is making me wish we get a damn cool front down here already.
SwordsgoneWild
WhenyougazeintotheabysstheBuffaloSabresgazeback
Pete's in his 13th season . Man , time flies by. Was his first season that 7-9 year where they won the West and beat the Saints in the WC round?
TheGreenTBer
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