They are on the cusp.
If 3 of the 4 teams ahead of them lose, they are in.
I don’t think Baylor can get there having dropped a spot.
It depends on how much you want to punish any of Bama, Cincy and UM for having to play another game. I think it is reasonable to ask why should ND be rewarded for not putting themselves at risk of missing the CFP playoffs by playing in a conference championship?
I think they are positioned to jump over OSU and Cincy if they lose but that's it. One of the likely scenarios is UM winning, Bama losing, Cincy winning and OSU losing then it comes down to Bama vs. ND for #4. ND may get in to avoid Ga. having to play Bama again.
If Cincy loses, and Bama plays OK vs. Ga. but still loses, then it can be justified to keep them at #3 to set up a UM/Bama SF and a Ga./ND.
If UM loses, I think they are still in, unless they completely crap the bed, with OSU and Cincy wins and a clear Bama loss.
A lot depends on how big Bama loses to Ga.