Post-Game Talk: We need a New Goaltender(and Coach); Devils lose 4-1 (Poll)

[Azathoth]

The Devils are the 8th best in High Danger CF and 11th worst in High Danger CA....That is essentially a wash...To me that says they are forgoing defense to generate offense. That to me looks like the essence of firewagon hockey...Trading chance for chance.


To have any chance of success trading chance for chance, one side of the equations has to be upper echelon...Goals or Goals Against..we do neither well enough to trade chances.

Fair enough, I was looking at scoring chances and not corsi. Interestingly enough those numbers are good for 3rd best in the league for HDCF% behind only Tampa and Boston. They also give up less HDCA than Tampa (300 for devils vs 310 for Tampa). There is a world of difference between Blackwood and Vasilevskiy though.

 

[BurntToast]

Time and Time again, you will see defensive/responsible coaches have success because it works. They may not always get the end result but they greatly improve their team’s success.

I love Ovi but he didn’t win a cup before or after Tortz. Look at Boston, the Blues. Look at how well Calgary is playing. The Islanders had rough start but they are still a tough out.

How many times have the Leafs, Avs or Vegas won? Why did Vegas go from free spirit Galant to Pete?

Now look at the poster boy of offense..McDavid, yeesh!?

Did the Jackets win? No. Did they play above what people excepted? Yes.

Tortz or any other hard ass would be perfect for this team..

 

[ChicksDigTheTrap]

When do you hold people accountable? I don't consider moving on from Shero holding anyone accountable.

What are you looking for? A public flogging of Fitz in front of the Rock before the next game?

 

[Camille the Eel]

T

Fair enough, I was looking at scoring chances and not corsi. Interestingly enough those numbers are good for 3rd best in the league for HDCF% behind only Tampa and Boston. They also give up less HDCA than Tampa (300 for devils vs 310 for Tampa). There is a world of difference between Blackwood and Vasilevskiy though.

Trading chance for chance leads to a goaltending contest as much as anything. That’s reflected in our record.

 

[JimEIV]

No, we're 11th best.

Boston 236
Seattle 279
Calgary 281
Colorado 282
Dallas 292
Minnesota 296
NY Islanders 296
Chicago 297
Nashville 297
Ottawa 300
New Jersey 300
Tampa 310
Pittsburgh 318
Carolina 319
Oilers 329
Vancouver 339
Toronto 341
Washington 341
Winnipeg 342
San Jose 342
Arizona 353
Montreal 359
Florida 365
Columbus 368
Buffalo 372
Los Angeles 376
Anaheim 385
St. Louis 385
NY Rangers 389
Vegas 392
Philadelphia 406
Detroit 414

Oh wow...I read the list wrong.

3rd best team in the League HDCF% - Only Boston Tampa are better - So that is definitely not trading chances and my premise is incorrect.

 

[Blackjack]

What are you looking for? A public flogging of Fitz in front of the Rock before the next game?

Now we're talking

 

[Azathoth]

T

Trading chance for chance leads to a goaltending contest as much as anything. That’s reflected in our record.

Except we are not though.

 

[JimEIV]

Except we are not though.

I'm still not sure that we are Not...At least not completely

If you remove the quality factor and just look at CF we are 14th in CF% - 51.1% - 1799 For and 1721 against -

If you look at Medium and High Danger combined - You are at 51.2% - Which is in-line with the Raw CF percentage.

It starts to look a little bit like trading chances again. My eye tells me they give up as many as they get... but just don't score on their chances...I don't think the numbers are far off from that.

 

[glenwo2]

All good points. Presumably Fitz is ok with the system in place. That's an issue if the system is that flawed. He's not an idiot and I'd be surprised if you could recognize a systemic problem on the ice and he can't, which is confusing. You may very well be right about the system. Personnel is trickier. Fitz is trying to remake the defense but it's a bit of work in progress. Jaros is an injury fill in and you expect mistakes. Graves had a bad game last night but has been good more often than not to my eyes when healthy. He had that stretch after the leg injury where he couldn't move and was bad. Siegs has been very good most nights. He's carried his pairing most nights and that's impressive for a guy just getting his first shot at regular NHL minutes. I don't see why he can't function on a second pair as a solid number 4. Hamilton is a mixed bag and at times has looked bad defensively, but the game is so easy for him with the puck on his stick you live with it. Severson has been better this season than seasons past, but as you've noted he is what he is. It doesn't help that with Hamilton sidelined both Severson and Subban have to play up in the lineup with predictably meh results.

The thing is that Fitz could remake it to be the #1 Defense in NHL History....but that won't matter at all if we're not getting at least "Average" Goaltending instead of what we witnessed.

 

[JimEIV]

The thing is that Fitz could remake it to be the #1 Defense in NHL History....but that won't matter at all if we're not getting at least "Average" Goaltending instead of what we witnessed.

You'll get average goaltending when the team improves in front of the goaltender.

 

[My3Sons]

The thing is that Fitz could remake it to be the #1 Defense in NHL History....but that won't matter at all if we're not getting at least "Average" Goaltending instead of what we witnessed.

true but every bit of better defensive play in front of the goalie will help. They aren’t tough enough as a group in front of MBW to help him out either. Not enough opposing forwards getting moved out. The Crouse goal last night was an example.

 

[JimEIV]

You know why Cory Schwab did this in NJ -

3 yrs		NJD	NHL	24		7	6	2	29	410	381	.929	1.54

[TFOOT] [/TFOOT]

And this everywhere else?

3 yrs		TBL	NHL	87		21	46	5	240	2242	2002	.893	3.25

[TFOOT] [/TFOOT]

1 yr		VAN	NHL	6		2	1	1	16	115	99	.861	3.57

[TFOOT] [/TFOOT]

1 yr		TOR	NHL	30		12	10	5	75	707	632	.894	2.73

[TFOOT] [/TFOOT]

You know why....

 

[Azathoth]

I'm still not sure that we are Not...At least not completely

If you remove the quality factor and just look at CF we are 14th in CF% - 51.1% - 1799 For and 1721 against -

If you look at Medium and High Danger combined - You are at 51.2% - Which is in-line with the Raw CF percentage.

It starts to look a little bit like trading chances again. My eye tells me they give up as many as they get... but just don't score on their chances...I don't think the numbers are far off from that.

Thats fair. Glass half full take is at least if they are trading chances they seem to be pretty good at limiting the dangerous ones. Their SCF% is 51.53 good for 11th in the league and as mentioned earlier their HDF% is 3rd in the league so I think they are trending in the right direction.

Also how the f*** are the Rangers 25th in HDF% and dead last in SCF%. f***ing goaltending.

 

[Bleedred]

You know why Cory Schwab did this in NJ -

3 yrs		NJD	NHL	24		7	6	2	29	410	381	.929	1.54

[TFOOT] [/TFOOT]

And this everywhere else?

3 yrs		TBL	NHL	87		21	46	5	240	2242	2002	.893	3.25

[TFOOT] [/TFOOT]

1 yr		VAN	NHL	6		2	1	1	16	115	99	.861	3.57

[TFOOT] [/TFOOT]

1 yr		TOR	NHL	30		12	10	5	75	707	632	.894	2.73

[TFOOT] [/TFOOT]

You know why....

I have a great explanation for that.

He was extremely sheltered in his last two years here. Actually, his last year here I think he only played 3-4 games and got injured and never played again.

Clemmensen came in and looked great for 4 games or whatever he played that year too, then when he started getting used more in 05-06 he started to suck. Scott Wedgewood even gave us a great example of this in modern times when he was called in 15-16. His first 4 or however many games he played that year in like a week was very reminiscent to a couple of Schwab's years here and Clemmensen's debut season here. The only difference was that it came in consecutive games, while those guys never played consecutively.

These small samples usually have some really bad streaks and some really good ones. In a low number of games.

Look at Schwab's first 10 games here back in 95-96. Still not a very good sample size, but he was an .899% that year and that was almost as worthless as he was everywhere else.

You think Schwab is a .930% goalie if Marty got hurt those two years and had to miss a significant number of games? I absolutely do not.

And if you wanna keep digging up backups, Chris Terreri was absolutely and utterly no count his second tenure here. He was absolutely worthless by the time he came back here. He was a fine goalie when he was here the first time, not nearly as good as Brodeur, but decent right before he was traded to San Jose. He was insanely awful the second go around.

But then he got traded to the Islanders and in 8 games he was a .912% which was way better than anything he did here in about 7 years.

 

[JimEIV]

Thats fair. Glass half full take is at least if they are trading chances they seem to be pretty good at limiting the dangerous ones. Their SCF% is 51.53 good for 11th in the league and as mentioned earlier their HDF% is 3rd in the league so I think they are trending in the right direction.

Also how the f*** are the Rangers 25th in HDF% and dead last in SCF%. f***ing goaltending.

The Rangers the worst CF% team in the league at 44.31...And the 5th best in Points (percentage) in the league also.

 

[Bleedred]

Thats fair. Glass half full take is at least if they are trading chances they seem to be pretty good at limiting the dangerous ones. Their SCF% is 51.53 good for 11th in the league and as mentioned earlier their HDF% is 3rd in the league so I think they are trending in the right direction.

Also how the f*** are the Rangers 25th in HDF% and dead last in SCF%. f***ing goaltending.

Well you see, they play an absolutely amazing system and really shelter their goalies. Probably much thanks to Gerard Gallant. Shesterkin isn’t even a better goalie than Blackwood is, he just plays behind a really good team.

YOU HEAR THAT RANGERS FANS?! Your goalie isn’t any better than Blackwood is.

What’s that? You need to to change your pants after soiling yourself after reading that statement? Yeah, so do I.

I couldn’t even type that with a straight face.

 

[RNCDevil]

I would be curious to understand where teams are scoring against the Devils. When I watch games, the elite teams seem to score off the rush, while it seems like the Devils give up absurd point deflections or in-tight rebound goals, but that could just be my lying eyes.

 

[Devils731]

You know why Cory Schwab did this in NJ -

3 yrs		NJD	NHL	24		7	6	2	29	410	381	.929	1.54

[TFOOT] [/TFOOT]

And this everywhere else?

3 yrs		TBL	NHL	87		21	46	5	240	2242	2002	.893	3.25

[TFOOT] [/TFOOT]

1 yr		VAN	NHL	6		2	1	1	16	115	99	.861	3.57

[TFOOT] [/TFOOT]

1 yr		TOR	NHL	30		12	10	5	75	707	632	.894	2.73

[TFOOT] [/TFOOT]

You know why....

Why did Marty have save percentages of .902 and then 2 years later .927 and then 2 years later .906?

Save percentage is plenty variable, the most likely explanation is Schwab wasn’t very good, as his entire career suggests.

Otherwise, why did Schwab only have a .899 save percentage behind the 95-96 Devils? He was not good for 10 games one season and good for 14 games over 2 seasons. It’s crazy to try and draw any conclusions from that.

 

[Unknown Caller]

You know why Cory Schwab did this in NJ -

3 yrs		NJD	NHL	24		7	6	2	29	410	381	.929	1.54

[TFOOT] [/TFOOT]

And this everywhere else?

3 yrs		TBL	NHL	87		21	46	5	240	2242	2002	.893	3.25

[TFOOT] [/TFOOT]

1 yr		VAN	NHL	6		2	1	1	16	115	99	.861	3.57

[TFOOT] [/TFOOT]

1 yr		TOR	NHL	30		12	10	5	75	707	632	.894	2.73

[TFOOT] [/TFOOT]

You know why....

His entire sample size with the Devils is 24 games, and if you go back and check the opponents, I can almost guarantee you it was primarily mop up duty against the weakest teams in the league. This doesn't prove anything.

 

[JimEIV]

I have a great explanation for that.

He was extremely sheltered in his last two years here. Actually, his last year here I think he only played 3-4 games and got injured and never played again.

Clemmensen came in and looked great for 4 games or whatever he played that year too, then when he started getting used more in 05-06 he started to suck. Scott Wedgewood even gave us a great example of this in modern times when he was called in 15-16. His first 4 or however many games he played that year in like a week was very reminiscent to a couple of Schwab's years here and Clemmensen's debut season here. The only difference was that it came in consecutive games, while those guys never played consecutively.

These small samples usually have some really bad streaks and some really good ones. In a low number of games.

Look at Schwab's first 10 games here back in 95-96. Still not a very good sample size, but he was an .899% that year and that was almost as worthless as he was everywhere else.

You think Schwab is a .930% goalie if Marty got hurt those two years and had to miss a significant number of games? I absolutely do not.

And if you wanna keep digging up backups, Chris Terreri was absolutely and utterly no count his second tenure here. He was absolutely worthless by the time he came back here. He was a fine goalie when he was here the first time, not nearly as good as Brodeur, but decent right before he was traded to San Jose. He was insanely awful the second go around.

But then he got traded to the Islanders and in 8 games he was a .912% which was way better than anything he did here in about 7 years.

Schwab played 11 games in 2002-03 and was excellent. HE wasn't sheltered at all - How do you even shelter a goalie?

One of those 11 games was he came in relieve for Brodeur against Pittsburgh....Brodeur let in 4 in the 1st period and Schwab pitched a shutout the last 2 periods - The Devils lost 4-1 - Game 7 below

Same exact thing happen against Boston, Game 9 below....Brodeur was pulled at the half way point after allowing 4 goals on 16 shots...Schwab came in and pitched a shutout for the second half and the DEvils lost 4-3 - Brodeur got the loss ---


Schwab was excellent that year and This is what Started the whole "Brodeur is a Fraud" nonsense.

Goalie Stats
Rk	Date	G	Age	Tm	Opp	DEC	GA	SA	SV	SV%	SO	PIM	TOI
1	2002-11-23	1	32-019	NJD		TBL	L	L	3	23	20	.870	0	0	59:05
2	2002-11-29	2	32-025	NJD	@	NSH	W	W	1	29	28	.966	0	0	60:00
3	2002-12-07	3	32-033	NJD	@	TOR	L	L	1	14	13	.929	0	0	58:54
4	2003-01-03	4	32-060	NJD		TOR	W	W	0	17	17	1.000	1	0	59:50
5	2003-01-24	5	32-081	NJD	@	MDA	W	W	1	20	19	.950	0	0	60:00
6	2003-02-04	6	32-092	NJD		BUF	W	W	1	20	19	.950	0	0	59:54
7	2003-02-15	7	32-103	NJD		PIT	L		0	6	6	1.000	0	0	40:00
8	2003-03-05	8	32-121	NJD	@	CGY	L-OT	L	5	32	27	.844	0	0	61:54
9	2003-03-13	9	32-129	NJD	@	BOS	L		0	8	8	1.000	0	0	29:20
10	2003-03-21	10	32-137	NJD		PIT	W	W	1	24	23	.958	0	0	60:00
11	2003-04-06	11	32-153	NJD	@	BUF	T	T	2	30	28	.933	0	0	64:4

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Chris Terreri was 35/36 years old in second go around here he was done...

 

[Bleedred]

I still think Blackwood CAN turn it around, I'm a little more optimistic that he can than Cory was going to. As you remember I was very skeptical of Cory ever bouncing back again by early in the 2018-2019 season, or at least not for more than one year before returning to the declining version.

I still think Blackwood has a reasonable chance of pulling out of this by next year. I'm very skeptical he'll ever be a particularly good goalie or consistently good goalie, but I think he could wind up having a pretty okay career in the NHL. If he bombs again next year, I'm writing him off completely like I did for Cory after about 3 poor years. He's also younger than Cory was by the time he started looking this bad. Probably quite a few years younger. I don't think Cory really started looking this bad until late in 2018. Maybe the first part of 2018 (second half of the 17-18 season) before having a monster 4 games in the playoffs. And by that point he was 32 years old, Blackwood just turned 25 last month. The one thing he doesn't have going for him is that he was never as good as Cory was in the first place before he started falling apart.

So, I think he could be good again, there's a reasonable chance. I wouldn't bet a large sum on it, but I wouldn't bet too much against it either.

Management needs to ASSUME that he will not bounce back and that he will continue to be a below or worse than below average goalie and that he has no business being the starter or the best goalie on our roster next year and it's up to them to make sure it doesn't happen. They need to treat him like he won't be getting any better and that this is at least close to the new normal from him. I'm sure he'll have a hot streak by the end of the year regardless (Cory always did and Marty had his as well), but he would need to play his best 30 games of hockey of his NHL career and maybe even entire pro career to really finish with an overall average season this year.

This doesn't mean management needs to give up on him after this year, but they certainly need to give up on him being the best option. They really need to divorce themselves from the marriage that they have with him by playing him as much as they do.

I don't understand why they've been vocal about playing the f*** out of him. Perhaps they also feel this is his last chance and they want to be absolutely sure before they go and get a better goalie next year that he really doesn't have more to offer than what he's shown over his last 53 games? Cause he really hasn't done anything to deserve all these games, other than had a very good run of play back when Tom was still the assistant GM/interim GM and Lindy Ruff was still working for the Rangers as an assistant.

 

[Bleedred]

Schwab played 11 games in 2002-03 and was excellent. HE wasn't sheltered at all - How do you even shelter a goalie?

One of those 11 games was he came in relieve for Brodeur against Pittsburgh....Brodeur let in 4 in the 1st period and Schwab pitched a shutout the last 2 periods - The Devils lost 4-1 - Game 7 below

Same exact thing happen against Boston, Game 9 below....Brodeur was pulled at the half way point after allowing 4 goals on 16 shots...Schwab came in and pitched a shutout for the second half and the DEvils lost 4-3 - Brodeur got the loss ---


Schwab was excellent that year and This is what Started the whole "Brodeur is a Fraud" nonsense.

Goalie Stats
Rk	Date	G	Age	Tm	Opp	DEC	GA	SA	SV	SV%	SO	PIM	TOI
1	2002-11-23	1	32-019	NJD		TBL	L	L	3	23	20	.870	0	0	59:05
2	2002-11-29	2	32-025	NJD	@	NSH	W	W	1	29	28	.966	0	0	60:00
3	2002-12-07	3	32-033	NJD	@	TOR	L	L	1	14	13	.929	0	0	58:54
4	2003-01-03	4	32-060	NJD		TOR	W	W	0	17	17	1.000	1	0	59:50
5	2003-01-24	5	32-081	NJD	@	MDA	W	W	1	20	19	.950	0	0	60:00
6	2003-02-04	6	32-092	NJD		BUF	W	W	1	20	19	.950	0	0	59:54
7	2003-02-15	7	32-103	NJD		PIT	L		0	6	6	1.000	0	0	40:00
8	2003-03-05	8	32-121	NJD	@	CGY	L-OT	L	5	32	27	.844	0	0	61:54
9	2003-03-13	9	32-129	NJD	@	BOS	L		0	8	8	1.000	0	0	29:20
10	2003-03-21	10	32-137	NJD		PIT	W	W	1	24	23	.958	0	0	60:00
11	2003-04-06	11	32-153	NJD	@	BUF	T	T	2	30	28	.933	0	0	64:4

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Chris Terreri was 35/36 years old in second go around here he was done...

11 games is not sheltered for a goalie that's on the roster the entire season? He was averaging a game every two weeks that year? You don't even see goalies that are on the roster the entire year get 11 games over 82 anymore, but you seen it a lot for most of Brodeur's career.

So what's your point? We played a system that made goalies look great? If you really believe that then why would ''Brodeur is a fraud'' stuff be nonsense in your opinion?

 

[Bleedred]

His entire sample size with the Devils is 24 games, and if you go back and check the opponents, I can almost guarantee you it was primarily mop up duty against the weakest teams in the league. This doesn't prove anything.

I seem to remember Schwab doing quite well against Toronto, if I'm not mistaken. And I think he even had a shutout against them in 03-04, in what was one of his last 2 or 3 games played in the NHL before he got injured sometime around January when Scott Clemmensen got called up and started playing games. Maybe he wanted to stick it to them cause he played for them the year before. And I swear I remember reading at the time that Toronto offered more money on a one year deal in 2002, but he decided to sign with us because Lou offered 2 years and he liked the security.

I also seem to remember them throwing him in there (and Clemmensen as well) against Pittsburgh. I know Clemmensen had a shutout against Pittsburgh and I think he had 1 goal against game vs them in 03-04. I also remember Clemmensen beating the Thrashers that year. If that tells you anything. Those teams SUCKED back then.

The Pens in 02-03 and 03-04 (and even 01-02) were BAD teams. Even the 05-06 Pens were pretty bad. The Pens being so bad those years is what got them Fleury, Malkin and Crosby, who were a combined 1.3333 overall in the draft. Two first overalls and a second overall.

They were a terrible team and you could throw your backup against them and get a shutout. I seem to remember Pittsburgh being one team that Brodeur had racked up a lot of wins and even racked up quite a few shutouts against in his career, but when you look at his save percentage against that team it wasn't where it was against the Flyers, Islanders, Rangers. I think he even struggled against them in some of those years. Like the game where he got pulled and Schwab relieved him.

 

[Buck Dancer]

The thing is that Fitz could remake it to be the #1 Defense in NHL History....but that won't matter at all if we're not getting at least "Average" Goaltending instead of what we witnessed.

Playing a good team defence doesn't required to have 6 All-Star's on your blueline. Yes, we had Marty in nets but when he was on his decline, we had a strong team defence and iced chumps like Mottau, Volchenkov in his down years and company.

The system has a lot to do with it and Ruff just seems to employ a defensive structure that has players out of place more often then not. Running around is the key to having defensive collapses.

 

[Bleedred]

Playing a good team defence doesn't required to have 6 All-Star's on your blueline. Yes, we had Marty in nets but when he was on his decline, we had a strong team defence and iced chumps like Mottau, Volchenkov in his down years and company.

The system has a lot to do with it and Ruff just seems to employ a defensive structure that has players out of place more often then not. Running around is the key to having defensive collapses.

Slight nitpick here, but I don't consider Brodeur to have started his decline when we had Mottau, but I consider his decline to have started around January of 2010 and that was Mottau's last half season here. I think Mottau's first year here was 07-08 and that was arguably Brodeur's greatest season if I had to pick one. 06-07 was even better, but my argument was that he racked up A LOT of shutouts that year (was it 12?) and wound up playing pretty much just as good in 07-08, but only had 4 shutouts that year. So I always consider 07-08 as his pinnacle for regular season success. If you include cups it certainly was not, but those two were seasons were phenomenal when you consider all these guys that supposedly made him great were either gone or retired. Not many goalies had a season that good at 35 years old. Roy and Hasek probably did and that's it. And then you consider he played 77 or 78 games that year? f***in ridiculous. Out of this world.

After that season he got injured the next year and missed over half the season and then he had one more Vezina finalist season where he racked up a lot of shutouts (and really fell off in the second half, hence pointing to the January 2010 being the start of the decline) and that was all aside from the SCF year in 11-12.

And the 07-08 roster was not all that great, which is why we had Mottau and I think a lot of us were like ''Really? This dude is like a career AHL player that's almost 30 years old and we're gonna ice him on our defense in a full time role?''.

Either way he won the Vezina both years and I think he was top-3 in the Hart Trophy voting in both of those years. I think he was a finalist in both for the Hart.