Sorry struggling to supply all the details. A High level prospect is actually affected quite a bit less. For example a player like McDavid or Lafrieniere was pretty sure he was playing in the NHL post draft year. This is why I feel it directly impacts the non elite or Mid Level talent a bit more. Maybe a decent example would be a Sonny Milano. Because he didn’t report to the OHL team that drafted him he was able to collect a pay check and access the AHL post draft year more preferable for him as otherwise in the CHL he would have been back to his Junior Team? The CHL would be better off levelling the field when it comes to player advantage and go head to head based on skill development and % of players promoted to the big leagues. I believe they would “win” a lot more without this “Player Protection” agreement in place. In order to not dominate the thread I won’t answer any further questions as like I mentioned there are many scenarios with many impacts. But it’s just an IMO to your original question. Cheers
That would take a lot of analysis.
First, you’d have to create a viable number of players that are motivated by playing in the AHL at 18 years old. Most players that don’t report to the OHL do so because they feel the NCAA is a better route for them. Trying to weed out those players from the ones that are motivated to earn $70k x 2 as 18 and 19 year olds vs the ones truly looking for an education would be tough.
Second, even if you could develop a number of players that would report to the OHL were they able to play AHL at 18, you’d then have to temper that with the number of players that chose the OHL regardless of the rule change and were good enough post-draft to play AHL but not NHL.
Your suggestion is we’d have more players reporting than we’d see leaving early, thus creating a net benefit of added players to the league.
The problem with that theory is it would create a positive increase of quality players but only as 16 and 17 year olds. We wouldn’t see as many higher quality 18 and 19 year olds. Those players would be gone.
Just from this past draft in 2019 and 2020, I would suggest this list of players that would be gone for the 2021 season (our current season):
Harley
Tomasino
McMichael
Suzuki
Kaliyev
Robertson
Byfield
Drysdale
Quinn
Perfetti
Foerster
Perreault
I would argue all of those players would qualify for the AHL or at least ECHL if they for some reason didn’t quite make the cut at the AHL level for this season.
We’d then have to balance that against the impact of the 16 and 17 year olds that we attracted because they are eligible to play AHL and would forego the US route.
I don’t have the slightest idea what the net result would be but my thinking is we may get the additional players to report as you suggest but I think the tradeoff of losing the 18 and 19 year old stars of our league would outweigh the added 16 and 17 year olds. Jsut my way of thinking.