Player Discussion Warren Foegele - next contract?

[McOilers97]

Warren Foegele is one of the only significant UFAs on the Oilers this upcoming summer. He's having a massive season - I've always liked the player, but he's totally outperforming what I'm sure any of us could've imagined at the beginning of the season. Based on the team's cap structure going forward, it seems likely that the team won't be able to retain him, so I ask the following:

- what do you think the Oilers are willing/able to offer Foegele on a next contract?
- what kind of offers do you think he'll get from elsewhere?

I'd imagine the Oilers would feel comfortable with something like $3.5m x 4, but Foegele I'd bet is looking for (and will get offers for) $4m+.

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[Canovin]

Might be best to package him and some picks for Konecny/Lindholm or someone along that line

 

[La Bamba]

IMO, if Foegele wants anything more than what he’s already getting, I’d move on

He’s a ~2.5M player being propped up by elite talent. Don’t want another Kassian like situation

 

[Soundwave]

Think the Brown cap overage is gonna screw us on this one.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

I think the Oilers are considering re-signing him, but I think, if he keeps this up through the season and playoffs, he'll probably get Paid as a UFA

 

[Da McBomb]

I bet alot of people here (including me) thought he was a bit overpaid coming into this season.... now I wonder what they think.

The risk of signing him is that he regresses back to his old self and you now have a ~ $4 million player in the bottom 6. He will be a tricky one for management.

 

[McOilers97]

I bet alot of people here (including me) thought he was overpaid coming into this season.... now I wonder what they think.

The risk of signing him is that he regresses back to his old self and you now have a ~ $4 million player in the bottom 6. He will be a tricky one for management.

Yes, as another reply said, it's a bit of a Kassian-like situation. The two players have different strengths and weaknesses, but both are prototypical 3rd line players that might make a million or so more than they are worth, which is significant.

 

[Fourier]

I bet alot of people here (including me) thought he was a bit overpaid coming into this season.... now I wonder what they think.

The risk of signing him is that he regresses back to his old self and you now have a ~ $4 million player in the bottom 6. He will be a tricky one for management.

He might well get $4M but I can't see it being from the Oilers. I had almost assumed that they would be moving on from him for cap purposes. But he has obviously opened some eyes. To resign him they will have to look at saving cap somewhere. Perhaps with some creative trades.

 

[5 14 6 1]

Will come down to what the player wants. I'm sure he could get his existing $ re-upped. But if he wants a bunch more, sayanora

 

[Green Xero]

He's playing well but I think he's good where he is on the $$, maybe a tiny raise. He's a product of the system and his line right now. I think we're best to keep him for the playoffs. If he wants a a big payday after let him walk, no big loss. Maybe he decides he likes it here and stays on a better deal.

 

[McOilers97]

He's playing well but I think he's good where he is on the $$, maybe a tiny raise. He's a product of the system and his line right now. I think we're best to keep him for the playoffs. If he wants a a big payday after let him walk, no big loss. Maybe he decides he likes it here and stays on a better deal.

That's where I'm at. He's playing very well and the team is rolling, so you have to risk losing him this summer if he wants too big of a raise. If that happens, the team can live with it.

 

[bone]

He'd be a gamble to give too much. Look back to the Hyman contract. Hyman was a career average 20 Goal ~45 Pt player per 82 games. Foegele's a 15 G / 30 Pt player per 82 games.

People thought Hyman's contract was a bit rich at the time at ~5.5. If Foegele's 2/3 of Hyman, that's about $3.7M plus whatever inflation.

We're at the point where sometimes you just have to let players like this go. We can't give him $4M+.

 

[FlameChampion]

Prior to this season, he wasn’t a 2.75m player. And it wasn’t that close. He was like a 1.5m player

Hes been good this season. He’s probably playing like a 3m player.

I’d probably pay him 2m on a short term deal. 1 or 2 year.

He might get more somewhere else which is fine.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

Foegele’s next deal will be larger than this one and not with the Oilers is my guess.

 

[McBooya42]

IMO, if Foegele wants anything more than what he’s already getting, I’d move on

He’s a ~2.5M player being propped up by elite talent. Don’t want another Kassian like situation

I'd give him up to 3.2 - 3.5 if he continues to succeed consistently like he is. This is the best he's ever looked for us. Is it coaching, line mates, confidence, or just a contract year? Maybe a mix of several, or all. Can he be that consistent 15-20 goal scorer that's a 2nd/3rd liner in a pinch? He's a good PK guy, has good speed, and seems to have figured out how to succeed with what he's good at. What's that worth to you?
Keep in mind he's also 27. How long would you want the contract to go for?

 

[fireantz]

Is he a top six player? Is Holloway his replacement and is the next Holloway ready in Bako? Do you trust Broberg to replace Kulak? Is it time to move Kane? Is Rodrique ready? Answer these questions before June then decide on what to pay him

 

[La Bamba]

I'd give him up to 3.2 - 3.5 if he continues to succeed consistently like he is. This is the best he's ever looked for us. Is it coaching, line mates, confidence, or just a contract year? Maybe a mix of several, or all. Can he be that consistent 15-20 goal scorer that's a 2nd/3rd liner in a pinch? He's a good PK guy, has good speed, and seems to have figured out how to succeed with what he's good at. What's that worth to you?
Keep in mind he's also 27. How long would you want the contract to go for?

Foegele's career high goals is 13, points is 30. He's averaged ~13 mins a game since he's been an Oiler. He'll likely surpass those totals this season but it doesn't change the fact for me that he's a 3rd line guy who's playing hot. I don't really recall him being relied upon as a special teams player. I don't see the urgency or desperation to ever overpay for players like Foegele. This is the only year he's finally lived up to expectations. From my perspective, and maybe i'm too conservative, I would MAX give him 2M for 3 years. A guy like Bjugstad is better and got 2.1 for 2 years.

This organization's problem has been overpaying for depth guys (aka Kassian and Brown). people don't realize that cap space is not infinite

 

[Duke74]

That's where I'm at. He's playing very well and the team is rolling, so you have to risk losing him this summer if he wants too big of a raise. If that happens, the team can live with it.

Connor Brown will pick up the slack. Oh wait...

 

[McBooya42]

Foegele's career high goals is 13, points is 30. He's averaged ~13 mins a game since he's been an Oiler. He'll likely surpass those totals this season but it doesn't change the fact for me that he's a 3rd line guy who's playing hot. I don't really recall him being relied upon as a special teams player. I don't see the urgency or desperation to ever overpay for players like Foegele. This is the only year he's finally lived up to expectations. From my perspective, and maybe i'm too conservative, I would MAX give him 2M for 3 years. A guy like Bjugstad is better and got 2.1 for 2 years.

This organization's problem has been overpaying for depth guys (aka Kassian and Brown). people don't realize that cap space is not infinite

I like Foegele, but I think this is the right answer. I agree with everything you say here.

 

[TheNumber4]

It’ll suck to lose him. He’s a quickly become a part of the core. But there’s no doubt he’s raised his value this season, teams are taking notice. That said I’d hope he helps us out a bit since he was overpaid a tad in the last 2 years. Maybe like he sees whatever is top offer on the market is and takes a small 250K haircut to stay.

 

[HockeyGuy1964]

He has played well below his contract until lately & he's had opportunities in the top 6 in other years.
He's found some chemistry with Leon & we'll ride it until Kane gets it going & he becomes a 3rd liner with bottom 6 production again.
Then he'll either re-sign here for what he's making now or somebody will give him term & pay him like a top 6 player & regret it by Christmas next season.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

If he keeps playing like this I'd like to see him back. That said I wouldn't go a penny over $3.5 million AAV for him and I'd honestly be reluctant to give him that. IMO it's a bit of a character flaw for guys that only do well in contract years. Where was the commitment to improve prior to that?

 

[Spawn]

Wrong time to be thinking about a contract extension for this player.

He’s got 15 points on this 14 game win streak. He’s playing great hockey, but that production is unprecedented for him and highly unlikely to ever be repeated. He was on pace for 30 points this season prior to this stretch of wins.

I think there are better gambles every offseason, even at his current pay grade.

 

[RipsADrive]

He's the kind of player you have to let walk as a capped team in their contention window.

I hope he gets a big payday elsewhere though. Love the game he found this year.

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

You probably just need to let him walk with McDrai negotiations starting up within a year or two. Unless he's willing to take a pay cut which I doubt is happening with his current play.