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Blue Jays Discussion: WAR! Huh! What is it good for? Quick looks at players' whole on-field contributions!

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AlienWorkShop

AlienWorkShop

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Oct 30, 2004
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Kurtz said:
I think we generally agree on this. I'm not dismissing baserunning and defense outright, I just think it should represent a smaller chunk of WAR until we can measure them as accurately as we do hitting. Thus your approach of halving the defensive values is one I can get on board with, and thus why you must agree with me that defense has too large of an impact on current WAR calculations.
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Yeah I can get behind that, though I also think it's conceivable players like Machado were able to save 20+ runs in the field in a single year, so it's all up to individual interpretation in the end for defense. I think there is some merit in using a combination of UZR/DRS/Inside Edge.

I think we'd have to agree to disagree on the baserunning and positional adjustment components though. As great as a season as Martinez had, you could probably find a slow plodder in AAA who could manage a +100 wRC+ and be a replacement level DH. Not the same for a SS or CF.

And to take on your notion that SBs are team-specific, I see your point, but if Revere's being held at 1B on the Jays, it may show up in extra in UBR that he's then able to grab 3B or run to home from first. It'll also go the other way if a runner's allowed to run too much... It'll never be exact, but I think you're being picky about the edges here. Baserunning tends to be a fairly small component (and if a runner's fast enough, he'll damn well earn the freedom to run more).

Just by my quick-n-dirty method, halve Bourn's (and Martinez's) fielding runs and he's only 0.5 WAR better than Martinez that year ;)
 
Suntouchable13

Suntouchable13

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Dec 20, 2003
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dredeye said:
He's not clutch. Why would they even keep putting him out there?
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I'd be more weary about facing a guy that is 11-2 with a 5 ERA, then a guy that is 5-14 that has 2.86 ERA. He lost 14 times, which means that you can beat him (and his team sucks). I am looking at the win loss record, how likely are we to win. We may not hit Miller hard, or score many runs but we can still win because Atlanta sucks.
 

Discoverer

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Suntouchable13 said:
I'd be more weary about facing a guy that is 11-2 with a 5 ERA, then a guy that is 5-14 that has 2.86 ERA. He lost 14 times, which means that you can beat him (and his team sucks). I am looking at the win loss record, how likely are we to win. We may not hit Miller hard, or score many runs but we can still win because Atlanta sucks.
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You're right that it suggests things about the team he plays for. It doesn't say anything at all about the pitcher, though.
 
Suntouchable13

Suntouchable13

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Discoverer said:
You're right that it suggests things about the team he plays for. It doesn't say anything at all about the pitcher, though.
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I don't care about the pitcher. I care about wins and losses. How likely are we to win, that's all I care about. If we're facing a guy that has a great record, but his ERA is not good, it means that it's not going to be an easy victory.
 
King Mapes

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Suntouchable13 said:
I'd be more weary about facing a guy that is 11-2 with a 5 ERA, then a guy that is 5-14 that has 2.86 ERA. He lost 14 times, which means that you can beat him (and his team sucks). I am looking at the win loss record, how likely are we to win. We may not hit Miller hard, or score many runs but we can still win because Atlanta sucks.
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Not sure if serious...

By that token, you disagree about Hutch going to the Pen. His win-loss record is similar to Price.
 
Suntouchable13

Suntouchable13

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King Mapes said:
Not sure if serious...

By that token, you disagree about Hutch going to the Pen. His win-loss record is similar to Price.
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I don't disagree with that decision. What I am trying to say is that if a guy has a winning record despite a poor ERA, that does not mean that it is going to be an easy night for you. There is some reason why he has such a record. I can understand why Hutch is going to the bullpen, it's because he has been brutal on the road and he has been very inconsistent.

.
 

Discoverer

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Suntouchable13 said:
What I am trying to say is that if a guy has a winning record despite a poor ERA, that does not mean that it is going to be an easy night for you.
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It means you're likely to have a good night offensively because he's not a good pitcher.
 
The Nemesis

The Nemesis

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Suntouchable13 said:
I don't disagree with that decision. What I am trying to say is that if a guy has a winning record despite a poor ERA, that does not mean that it is going to be an easy night for you. There is some reason why he has such a record. I can understand why Hutch is going to the bullpen, it's because he has been brutal on the road and he has been very inconsistent.

.
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Nobody's saying that W-L indicates anything about facing a pitcher when compared to their other individual performance stats (otherwise you could easily also claim the inverse of your argument, that a bad record in spite of a great ERA doesn't necessarily mean you're in for a difficult night. The only argument being made consistently about W/L for pitchers is that they exist independently enough from that pitcher's performance (because the win or loss is dependent on factors outside of the pitcher's sphere of influence) that it's somewhat foolish to attempt to draw any conclusion from the record at all when you could probably come up with a more concretely backed on by examining their performance stats.

Hutch's bad stats in spite of his good record don't meant you're in for an easy night overall, but it does mean you're in for an easier night at the plate probably because he's gotten severely knocked around more often than not. What it does or doesn't say about the game as a whole is irrelevant because Hutch has absolutely nothing to do with what happens when the Jays are up to bat. Similarly, Miller's awful record in spite of his stellar performance means nothing about the game being harder than normal on the whole. It simply means that you're facing a good pitcher and might not score a lot of runs. Whether or not you give up enough runs to the anemic Barves offence in order to lose is an entirely separate issue.
 
Shimso

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Is it sad that the biggest thing I'm looking forward to today is seeing Price hit :laugh:
 
The Nemesis

The Nemesis

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Uh oh. Barker on Blue Jays Central again.

Anyone else hear banjos? :sarcasm:



I'm sure he's a perfectly nice guy and has some intelligent things to say, but my god, that accent just kills it..

and then Chip Carey opens his mouth and makes a mealy-mouthed non-statement about the validity of W/L for evaluating in light of Hutch & Miller. You're not your dad, buddy.
 
Canada4Gold

Canada4Gold

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Miller sucks. Can't get those wins. Doesn't pitch to the score. I'm really glad the Braves don't have someone like Hutch pitching tonight, we'd probably lose.

Says a lot about our pitching staffs, that a guy who has more than double the wins of their best pitcher can't even stay in our starting rotation :sarcasm:
 
Canada4Gold

Canada4Gold

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Some dude tweeted David Price last week and said if he hits a homerun in Atlanta that Price owes him a Price Jersey, deal? and Price told him deal. Why didn't I think of that?

Not like Price is going to hit a homerun anyway, but you know, there's no downside.
 
BertCorbeau

BertCorbeau

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Canada4Gold said:
Some dude tweeted David Price last week and said if he hits a homerun in Atlanta that Price owes him a Price Jersey, deal? and Price told him deal. Why didn't I think of that?

Not like Price is going to hit a homerun anyway, but you know, there's no downside.
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Well... Price could swing so hard for the fences he injures himself seriously, and the Jays season goes downhill from there....

:sarcasm:
 
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