Blue Jays Discussion: WAR! Huh! What is it good for? Quick looks at players' whole on-field contributions!

[tml19]

Revere
Don
Jose
Smoak
Martin
Goins
Pillar
Penny
Buehrle

Ouch

 

[Dingers]

Anyone have any tips on switching my lettering from REYES to REVERE on my authentic jersey? Obviously the number 7 will stay. Has anyone removed stitching from an authentic jersey? Will the imprint from the Reyes lettering still be visible? Can I get it re-stitched at the Rogers Centre? Should I even bother? I loved Reyes but I like wearing the jerseys of current players or retired greats.

 

[theaub]

Go the classy route and just duct tape over it

 

[hoglund]

So, in your mind, pre-1969, if the second place NL team had a better record than the first place AL team, the World Series should have been between the two NL teams?

No there are still 2 leagues and the top team in each league play each other for the championship, and the 2nd place NL team would still make the playoffs because the top two of each league made the playoffs.

 

[Discoverer]

But it's far from being the overlord that it's touted to be.

In my experience, it's only ever touted as being some kind of "overlord" by people who are saying it's not some kind of overlord. No one who uses or understands the stat believes it's anything more than a handy, fairly accurate representation of a player's value.

For positional players, WAR is broken because it overvalues defense, while we don't yet have an accurate way to measure defense properly.

You're right that we don't have an accurate way of measuring defense, but that doesn't mean it overvalues defense. The balance in offense and defense is appropriate.

On the pitching side WAR is slightly broken because rWAR treats pitchers who pitch to weak contact as the red-headed stepchild, and pitchers who get K's as gods.

I agree that looking at pitching WAR can be frustrating and is more of a work-in-progress than for position players.

If you're looking at offensive impact, OPS is a better measure than WAR.

If you're only trying to look at one aspect of the game, it never makes sense to look at WAR. If you want an accurate measure of offense, wOBA or wRC+ are hands down the best options.

 

[Dingers]

Countered by an even uglier

Markakis
Daniel Castro?
Freddie Freeman
Adonis Garcia?
A.J. Pierzynski
Swisher
Simmons
Bourn
Teheran

 

[hoglund]

have you learned what WAR is yet?

I'm still working on it.

 

[rojac]

No there are still 2 leagues and the top team in each league play each other for the championship, and the 2nd place NL team would still make the playoffs because the top two of each league made the playoffs.

We're talking pre-1969 -- no divisions. The team that finished first in the NL played the team that finished in the AL. So, no the 2nd place NL team did not make the playoffs.

So, pre-1969, each league was effectively one division and you had to win that division to make the playoffs (that is, the World Series). I don't see the issue to applying that same logic, when in 1969, each league split into 2 divisions.

 

[Nasty Nazem]

Bob Nightengale ‏@BNightengale 24m24 minutes ago
The #Pirates now 32-5 in one run games

Imagine the Jays record if they had that sort of luck...

Guessing Pirates will not be nearly as good next year.

EDIT:

Barry Davis ‏@SNBarryDavis 45m45 minutes ago
John Gibbons says he plans to use Martin behind the plate for Dickey as the season winds down, since he'd be doing it in post season.

Yes, thank you Gibby!

 

[hoglund]

We're talking pre-1969 -- no divisions. The team that finished first in the NL played the team that finished in the AL. So, no the 2nd place NL team did not make the playoffs.

So, pre-1969, each league was effectively one division and you had to win that division to make the playoffs (that is, the World Series). I don't see the issue to applying that same logic, when in 1969, each league split into 2 divisions.

Are you trying to argue that it IS right AND fair for a worse team to make the playoffs than a better team just because of the division they're in? come on......

 

[BertCorbeau]

Revere
Don
Jose
Smoak
Martin
Goins
Pillar
Penny
Buehrle

*gulp*

Offense may not be bountiful ... Turner Field is not much of a hitters park either, right?

Hope Martin can keep hitting, and Smoak/Goins can pick up the slack. Do not have much hope for Pillar

 

[dredeye]

The jays top 30 prospects are up on their website. I must say it's a less than impressive list "not surprising". AA is gonna need a homerun draft next year

 

[rojac]

Are you trying to argue that it IS right AND fair for a worse team to make the playoffs than a better team just because of the division they're in? come on......

There's no way to make it perfectly fair. So, why worry about it? Given that, having the best record in a division as a qualification to make the playoff makes as much sense as anything.

And you know what would happen if they changed it to your method? People like you would find some other reason to whine about why their team didn't make the playoffs.

 

[Shimso]

WAR? What is it good for? Absolutely nothing!

That's exactly what I need....to replace the "I'm stuck on a feeling" song stuck in my head with this

 

[rojac]

That's exactly what I need....to replace the "I'm stuck on a feeling" song stuck in my head with this

"Hooked on a feeling". Good grief. No respect for classics.

 

[Woodman19]

The jays top 30 prospects are up on their website. I must say it's a less than impressive list "not surprising". AA is gonna need a homerun draft next year

We still have an abundance of toolsy guys in short season ball who could come out of the gate and move us up the ranks to an upper mid tier system. Remember how when we traded Hechevarria, Marisnick, Syndergaard and D'Arnaud how we suddenly had Norris, Pompey, Osuna and Castro step up and establish themselves as top prospects the immediate season? I fully expect to see that again next year with Reid-Foley, Greene, Alford (arguably has) and Tellez types become top end prospects.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Are you trying to argue that it IS right AND fair for a worse team to make the playoffs than a better team just because of the division they're in? come on......

back then there was no interleague. So we don't know which team was the better team, the team with the better record might have been in a far weaker league because there was no crossover in the schedules whatsoever.

I don't think it would have been fair to pick a team with the better record when there's no games in common on the schedule at all.

Extreme example but imagine the AL was like the NHL, and the NL was like the KHL, or Swedish league or whatever, none of the Swedish league(NL) teams face the NHL(AL) teams, they each face each other so there's no way of knowing if the 2nd best record in the Swedish league(NL) means they're better than the best NHL(AL) team just because they might have a better record. If you get the analogy.

The only fair thing to do is to say win your league, in which you play nobody but the teams in your league since we can't compare records between leagues.

 

[TootooTrain]

Barry Davis ‏@SNBarryDavis 45m45 minutes ago
John Gibbons says he plans to use Martin behind the plate for Dickey as the season winds down, since he'd be doing it in post season.

Yes, thank you Gibby!

Right on Gibs.

 

[Canada4Gold]

We still have an abundance of toolsy guys in short season ball who could come out of the gate and move us up the ranks to an upper mid tier system. Remember how when we traded Hechevarria, Marisnick, Syndergaard and D'Arnaud how we suddenly had Norris, Pompey, Osuna and Castro step up and establish themselves as top prospects the immediate season? I fully expect to see that again next year with Reid-Foley, Greene, Alford (arguably has) and Tellez types become top end prospects.

Looking at the list it's still a fairly impressive list, especially when you consider we graduated Sanchez, and Travis, traded Hoffman, Norris and Castro, among other lower level guys.

Most of the impressive is at the lower levels however, bunch of guys just drafted or signed within a couple years. But I expect many of them will step up like you said and we'll be right back up there soon.

Don't think Harris should be at 2 though, 4 maximum. Alford, and SRF should be ahead of him. Possibly Pentecost too. Mayo likes him more than most though, so it makes sense.

 

[Kurtz]

In my experience, it's only ever touted as being some kind of "overlord" by people who are saying it's not some kind of overlord. No one who uses or understands the stat believes it's anything more than a handy, fairly accurate representation of a player's value.

You're right that we don't have an accurate way of measuring defense, but that doesn't mean it overvalues defense. The balance in offense and defense is appropriate.

I agree with most of your post, but somewhat disagree on the quoted. I believe a lot of people use the WAR stat without understanding its limitations.

As far as there being an accurate balance on defense and offense...also dubious. It seems to me fWar rewards defenders at a few key positions too richly, and punishes others too harshly. For instance, Victor Martinez put up an OPS of 974 last year over 640 at-bats. Monster numbers. And yet he only put up an fWAR of 4.3. I don't care what position those numbers are coming from, they have to make more of an impact than 4 wins.

 

[hoglund]

There's no way to make it perfectly fair. So, why worry about it? Given that, having the best record in a division as a qualification to make the playoff makes as much sense as anything.

And you know what would happen if they changed it to your method? People like you would find some other reason to whine about why their team didn't make the playoffs.

The only fair way would be to have a balanced schedule where all teams played each other the same # of times and the top 4 teams in mlb make the playoffs, but that's not likely to happen. In 1987 it was a bit hard to see 3 teams go to the playoffs with worse records than the Jays, that's a legitimate reason to whine about missing the playoffs.

 

[The Nemesis]

I couldn't make the revised thread title as long as I wanted to


It should read:


War! Huh! What is it good for? A quick look at players' whole on-field contributions across all possible categories and weighted against hypothetical freely available talent which could replace them, so as to provide an easy, summary number for comparing players across positions and eras with regards to the impact they have on the game in all potential fashions before necessitating longer statistical analysis in order to make more precise and categorically-relevant judgements!

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I agree with most of your post, but somewhat disagree on the quoted. I believe a lot of people use the WAR stat without understanding its limitations.

As far as there being an accurate balance on defense and offense...also dubious. It seems to me fWar rewards defenders at a few key positions too richly, and punishes others too harshly. For instance, Victor Martinez put up an OPS of 974 last year over 640 at-bats. Monster numbers. And yet he only put up an fWAR of 4.3. I don't care what position those numbers are coming from, they have to make more of an impact than 4 wins.

Such as?

 

[Bad News Benning]

Looking at the list it's still a fairly impressive list, especially when you consider we graduated Sanchez, and Travis, traded Hoffman, Norris and Castro, among other lower level guys.

Most of the impressive is at the lower levels however, bunch of guys just drafted or signed within a couple years. But I expect many of them will step up like you said and we'll be right back up there soon.

Don't think Harris should be at 2 though, 4 maximum. Alford, and SRF should be ahead of him. Possibly Pentecost too. Mayo likes him more than most though, so it makes sense.

The jays depth is now mostly in their 17/18 yr olds. There were some interesting prospects on our GCL and DSL teams who should start making their way through the system starting next year. I really think if AA has a couple strong drafts we should see the system back near the top. Many of the jays positional prospects have made good progress this year (with the exception of Pentecost being injured) so that bodes well. We are pretty weak in pitching prospects after all the trades but that should change if our pitching heavy drafts continue.

Top 3 for me would be Pompey, Alford, Guerrero Jr. SRF and Tellez would probably round out my top 5.

 

[Woodman19]

Such as?

Not understanding it, duh!