Blue Jays Discussion: WAR! Huh! What is it good for? Quick looks at players' whole on-field contributions!

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Suntouchable13

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Dec 20, 2003
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Jays need to win tonight ... And hope the Yankees lose (they're facing Archer)

They should. I don't think that the 0 for 12 (or whatever it was) by the top 3 in the order will repeat for 2 nights in a row. You can't say that the bottom of the order was atrocious last night. They got on base they got some hits, they did their job, the top of the order needs to show up. If they do, the Jays will be fine.
 

Kurtz

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Jul 17, 2005
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I feel like the issue here is that you're undervaluing everything except hitting. Replacement value is real, but I can understand it being frustrating as a concept. But when one player is among the worst defenders/baserunners in the game and the other is among the best at those things, there should be a HUGE disparity in non-hitting value. And it's not like we're talking about Kevin Pillar, who can't hit but does other things well. Bourn was a good hitter that year.

Well that's just it. The reason I'm undervaluing the defensive aspect of WAR is because in contrast to offense, we don't measure defense properly. We know this. So if we know this, why are we assigning it such high value within the WAR formula?

And base-running is equally as problematic. Maybe more so. Some teams run a lot, especially in NL. Jays don't run.

Ben Revere is a perfect example. He stole 24 bases in Philly. He stole 5 here, in nearly half of at bats. WAR rewards him richly in Philly because they want him to run there, but it doesn't reward him as a Jay because they don't ask him to run. So his base running hasn't changed, but his WAR would have changed drastically based on the two philosophies. WAR is meant to be an objective measure across teams, positions and leagues...does that seem objective to you?

Meanwhile, unlike defense and baserunning, hitting remains the most measurable and objective stat of the 3. So yes, I value it more, and I think I have cause to do so.
 

AlienWorkShop

No, Ben! No!
Oct 30, 2004
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I don't believe that's true, and this would go back to my earlier point about people misusing the WAR stat.

The whole notion of positional adjustment is so you can compare WAR evenly between positions. In other words, WAR allows you to say that a 4 WAR 1B is equally valuable to a 4 WAR SS because the positional adjustment has been factored into their respective WAR calculations.

This is why the stat $/WAR exists, and why it's applicable across all positions.

Current $/WAR figure is around 7 mil. That puts Bourne's 2012 season at $42 mil value, vs Martinez's season of $28 mil value. So yes, WAR does state rather clearly that Bourne had 50% more value in 2012 than Martinez in 2014. Which is, surely, absurd.
Well, again, being 50% better doesn't exactly apply given the dollar value can go below 0 with negative WAR... but it doesn't really matter.

I was more trying to explain the reasoning behind the positional adjustment.

It's not saying Bourn's actual, on-the-field production was was 1.9 WAR better than Martinez. Take out the positional adjustments and the difference is more like 0.2-0.3 WAR. By sheer batting/stolen base contribution (wOBA), WAR has it that Martinez contributed about 44 more runs than Bourn. It's not disagreeing with your assessment of their batting contributions...

Have your qualms with the fielding component if you will (I'd agree with you and I tend to mentally halve any DRS/UZR number I see), but you're essentially arguing that batting is the only important thing in baseball and we should ignore fielding, baserunning, and the ease of replacing a player.

You can argue against how the first two are measured (perhaps the stolen base component of baserunning could be team-specific... but not really on bases gained or double plays avoided, and it's a bit silly to entirely discount a player like Bourn's speed contribution when compared to a lethargic runner like Martinez...) and the third point is a bit of a mental/philosophical point to grasp, but if anything I see a 4.3 WAR for Martinez and think, 'wow, that's a hell of a season for a 1B/DH'.

(edit: I see Discoverer largely covered this already, so cheers)

edit2: based on your second post, I can't entirely disagree, but I suspect we'll hit an impasse soon.

One point I'd definitely agree on is being wary of defense driven WAR totals. People should take multi-year samples into account when they can and/or be aware of DRS/UZR differences.

Couple quick points: the highest defensive run values you'll see are around 20, or 2 wins, and those tend to be rare. Again, I'd agree these should be tempered over multiple seasons, but defense driven high WAR totals tend to be the exception (and, who is to say a fielder can't contribute 20+ runs to a team in the field in a year?)

Revere got a whopping 2.6 runs from SB in Philly (0.9 with the Jays). The weight isn't as high as you suggest... Batting is still the obvious king the WAR calculation.

Your main example of Martinez v Bourn is a bit of an outlier given your point of view of not valuing defense at all, not valuing baserunning at all, and (I think?) disagreeing with the idea that it's harder to replace a CF or SS than a 1B/DH. I take your point, but you've found a pretty specific case.
 
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theaub

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Nov 21, 2008
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Not to get all Captain Obvious and/or narrative based here, but hell this is why you got Price. Lose a close game on the road but you have the dude out there now to make sure you get to a rubber match.
 

Swervin81

Leaf fan | YYZ -> SEA
Nov 10, 2011
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They should. I don't think that the 0 for 12 (or whatever it was) by the top 3 in the order will repeat for 2 nights in a row. You can't say that the bottom of the order was atrocious last night. They got on base they got some hits, they did their job, the top of the order needs to show up. If they do, the Jays will be fine.

Shelby Miller on the mound, not gonna be easy. Dude has really emerged as a top tier pitcher this year and was even routinely making a living of being a Blue Jay killer when he was with the Cards. His only problem is his offense sucks and gives him literally zero run support. He could throw a no hitter and still lose 1-0.

We'll probably be fine, though, since we have Price on the hill.
 

theaub

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Guy's faced the Jays like...twice? Are we calling Jo-Jo Reyes a Blue Jays killer too?

e: pitching for Baltimore really killed his Blue Jay killer factor :(
 

Kurtz

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Jul 17, 2005
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Have your qualms with the fielding component if you will (I'd agree with you and I tend to mentally halve any DRS/UZR number I see), but you're essentially arguing that batting is the only important thing in baseball and we should ignore fielding, baserunning, and the ease of replacing a player.

You can argue against how the first two are measured (perhaps the stolen base component of baserunning could be team-specific... but not really on bases gained or double plays avoided, and it's a bit silly to entirely discount a player like Bourn's speed contribution when compared to a lethargic runner like Martinez...)

I think we generally agree on this. I'm not dismissing baserunning and defense outright, I just think it should represent a smaller chunk of WAR until we can measure them as accurately as we do hitting. Thus your approach of halving the defensive values is one I can get on board with, and thus why you must agree with me that defense has too large of an impact on current WAR calculations.
 

BertCorbeau

F*ck cancer - RIP Fugu and Buffaloed
Jan 6, 2012
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Shelby Miller on the mound, not gonna be easy. Dude has really emerged as a top tier pitcher this year and was even routinely making a living of being a Blue Jay killer when he was with the Cards. His only problem is his offense sucks and gives him literally zero run support. He could throw a no hitter and still lose 1-0.

We'll probably be fine, though, since we have Price on the hill.

Price vs Miller? Well that's a good match up

Need to pull one out here
 

Eyedea

The Legend Continues
Jan 29, 2012
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I think we generally agree on this. I'm not dismissing baserunning and defense outright, I just think it should represent a smaller chunk of WAR until we can measure them as accurately as we do hitting. Thus your approach of halving the defensive values is one I can get on board with, and thus why you must agree with me that defense has too large of an impact on current WAR calculations.

I don't think he finds defense as carrying too large of an impact in WAR. It's the inconsistency in year-to-year samples of UZR/DRS.

If you have someone like Simmons providing 2-3 wins on defence each year, then it's very likely that he is just consistently that good. The eye test supports the notion too.
 

Kurtz

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Jul 17, 2005
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Why is it absurd, though? You think it's easier to find a decent player to fill it for 2012 Bourn than 2014 Martinez?

I do.

Pillar has 19 SB on 86%. Put him on a national league team that cuts him loose, and he'll steal close to 50 on the season. And we know his defense is stellar.

So Pillar would be a 4+ WAR player on an NL team this season. Would you call Pillar a $28 mil/year player? And is a 4 WAR Pillar roughly equally valuable to a 2014 Victor Martinez?
 

Discoverer

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Apr 11, 2012
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Well that's just it. The reason I'm undervaluing the defensive aspect of WAR is because in contrast to offense, we don't measure defense properly. We know this. So if we know this, why are we assigning it such high value within the WAR formula?

The fact that it's not measured precisely enough doesn't mean it's overvalued. I agree that it's not perfectly accurate, but we're still comparing a great defensive CF and a poor defensive 1B/DH. Whether or not the difference is 30+ runs, there should be a huge value difference there.

And base-running is equally as problematic. Maybe more so. Some teams run a lot, especially in NL. Jays don't run.

Ben Revere is a perfect example. He stole 24 bases in Philly. He stole 5 here, in nearly half of at bats. WAR rewards him richly in Philly because they want him to run there, but it doesn't reward him as a Jay because they don't ask him to run. So his base running hasn't changed, but his WAR would have changed drastically based on the two philosophies. WAR is meant to be an objective measure across teams, positions and leagues...does that seem objective to you?

Of course it's objective. If a team asks a player to pull the ball more and he struggles, do we just ignore that and blame it on the team? Team philosophies and strategic decisions affect a lot of things, but the goal of WAR is to provide the value of what the player actually accomplished on the field. If a team asks a player not to run, he doesn't add baserunning value because he doesn't run. It's simple.

And, for the record, Revere has accrued more baserunning value in 169 plate appearances with the Jays (4.4 runs) than he did in 388 with the Phillies (3.8).

Meanwhile, unlike defense and baserunning, hitting remains the most measurable and objective stat of the 3. So yes, I value it more, and I think I have cause to do so.[/QUOTE]

Baserunning is just as measurable and objective as hitting, but I agree on defense. However, that doesn't mean we should discount it altogether. Like AlienWorkShop said, cut the number in half if you think it's being overvalued or that something is off. But you can't just ignore it because it's a huge part of the game.
 

Suntouchable13

Registered User
Dec 20, 2003
43,445
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Toronto, ON
Shelby Miller on the mound, not gonna be easy. Dude has really emerged as a top tier pitcher this year and was even routinely making a living of being a Blue Jay killer when he was with the Cards. His only problem is his offense sucks and gives him literally zero run support. He could throw a no hitter and still lose 1-0.

We'll probably be fine, though, since we have Price on the hill.

In the playoffs, you will have to find a way to win against good pitching.
 

Discoverer

Registered User
Apr 11, 2012
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I do.

Pillar has 19 SB on 86%. Put him on a national league team that cuts him loose, and he'll steal close to 50 on the season. And we know his defense is stellar.

So Pillar would be a 4+ WAR player on an NL team this season. Would you call Pillar a $28 mil/year player? And is a 4 WAR Pillar roughly equally valuable to a 2014 Victor Martinez?

And put Pillar on a team that convinces him not to swing at sliders low and away and suddenly he's got a .340 OBP. And put him on a team that gets him in the weight room more often and makes subtle mechanical adjustments and suddenly he's a 20 HR hitter. Add that to his great defense and those 50 stolen bases and he's an 8+ WAR player.

WAR isn't trying to look at hypotheticals or what teams tell players to do. It's looking at what was actually accomplished on the field.
 
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