Value of: Vladislav Namestnikov

[Akrapovince]

Isn’t really a question of what he is worth, more-so a general question regarding what you guys think behind the psychology of General Managers.

If he continues to produce points, and plays himself into a position where he is worth a second rounder,

would the fact that Ottawa only got him for a fourth rounder deter some GMs to not want to offer anything more than that? Or do I not give them enough credit for professionalism and putting ego-aside?

Obvious factor being that he plays himself into 2nd round pick value.

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[MaxV]

He is a productive player in specific roles and situations (as is the case for most non-star players really). He has pretty loose reins on him in Ottawa, that probably won't be the case on a contender.

 

[AndreRoy]

Vladdy’s a good bottom six forward who can play a complementary role in the top six, but he’s overpriced, doesn’t generate any offense on his own, wilts under physical play, disappears in the playoffs, and is on an expiring contract so a team would have to either want him as a rental for a playoff push or see him as someone worth taking on in the hopes of convincing him to re-sign with them; either way I certainly wouldn’t want to pay a 2nd for half a year of his services. He’s the kind of player you’d be fine with paying $2M a year to play in your bottom six, but he’s not the sort of guy you pay good assets for in the hopes that he’ll put you over the top in the playoffs.

 

[TGWL]

Teams will pay what they think he's worth, and what they think they need for their team going into the playoffs. Namesnikov being traded for a 4th and cap space, does not change Ottawa getting a possible 2nd for him at the deadline.

However, if teams think it's situational, maybe they don't want to pay a 2nd, but it has nothing to do with what Ottawa got him for.

 

[PlayersLtd]

I lost out on the purchase of a commercial property last year and paid a considerably larger amount this year for the same property when the guy decided to flip it. I was happy to do so because it fit my needs, I still saw value in it and it was year later.

Somewhere in there is an analogy that puts me on par with 30 NHL GM's and their likely attitude toward Namestnikov... I think... right?

 

[Altimus]

the more Ott can market him as a defensive forward the greater his value at the trade deadline. teams in the hunt want to add forwards who wont be a liability on the ice since they got their top 6 set and want pkers so they arent wasting their top 6 minute ice time. him scoring will drive up the price but his defensive play will have more value. id be stoked if we got 2 2nds out of him.

 

[Mark Stones Spleen]

Even if his overall play remained the same, he's probably worth more at the deadline than he's worth now, simply due to teams being able to fit him under the cap.

 

[ccman68]

We could definitely use him again. Would give a second round pick.

 

[SpezDispenser]

He's been really good, I'm really surprised. Will be a nice depth acquisition for someone for a 3rd.

 

[DFC]

I think the book is out on him. He'd have to put up A LOT of points to make a contending team think he has much value. We've seen what he can do with better teams, and it's not much.

 

[pld459666]

Players like Vlad usually get more at the deadline that their perceived value.

While not an offensive driver, hes capable offensively.

Not a defensive stalwart, hes capable defensively

Hes a guy that's perfect for a playoff team looking to re-slot a current 4th liner playing on the third line to present proper balance and depth for the stretch run.

Solid player that will a good trade for Ottawa.

 

[Kocur Dill]

Vladdy’s a good bottom six forward who can play a complementary role in the top six, but he’s overpriced, doesn’t generate any offense on his own, wilts under physical play, disappears in the playoffs, and is on an expiring contract so a team would have to either want him as a rental for a playoff push or see him as someone worth taking on in the hopes of convincing him to re-sign with them; either way I certainly wouldn’t want to pay a 2nd for half a year of his services. He’s the kind of player you’d be fine with paying $2M a year to play in your bottom six, but he’s not the sort of guy you pay good assets for in the hopes that he’ll put you over the top in the playoffs.

Spot on.

Because the playoffs are so long, and it inevitable someone is going to get hurt and need a rest, Vladdy will garner interest from a top team at a reasonable for both teams bargain.

He'll fetch less than Grabner and Zuccarello for certain. If Fast is dangled at the TDL he will effect Vladdys value or vise versa, but I'd bet money Fast is valued higher by competing GM's.

My guess is a straight 3rd. Less than Grabs/Zucc for sure, but slightly more than 4th/prospect NYR just got.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

he is an average player. can be solid on a third line and can put up pts in a complementary top-6 role. a 2nd is probably an overpay and a 4th was probably an underpay.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Spot on.

Because the playoffs are so long, and it inevitable someone is going to get hurt and need a rest, Vladdy will garner interest from a top team at a reasonable for both teams bargain.

He'll fetch less than Grabner and Zuccarello for certain. If Fast is dangled at the TDL he will effect Vladdys value or vise versa, but I'd bet money Fast is valued higher by competing GM's.

My guess is a straight 3rd. Less than Grabs/Zucc for sure, but slightly more than 4th/prospect NYR just got.

yeah, fast is better than vladdy. fast should get like a 2nd+an ok prospect

 

[Qward]

If Dzingle can get Ottawa two second round picks and Anthony Duclair, then Namestikov should easy get a 2nd and a b prospect.

 

[DFC]

If Dzingle can get Ottawa two second round picks and Anthony Duclair, then Namestikov should easy get a 2nd and a b prospect.

I sincerely doubt he gets that.

Some players excel in bad situations. Valerie Bure always looked great as long as his team sucked.

Namestnikov has already been pumped and dumped once. I don't think GMs will buy it a second time.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Isn’t really a question of what he is worth, more-so a general question regarding what you guys think behind the psychology of General Managers.

If he continues to produce points, and plays himself into a position where he is worth a second rounder,

would the fact that Ottawa only got him for a fourth rounder deter some GMs to not want to offer anything more than that? Or do I not give them enough credit for professionalism and putting ego-aside?

Obvious factor being that he plays himself into 2nd round pick value.

Yes, his value will be negatively anchored to his low acquisition price but I don't think it will be a huge deal. GMs understand there is a difference between getting a discount on a player for cap reasons, and taking a player at the deadline when their cap hit has mostly been paid. Things like that affect the value of a player. We've seen players available for free on waivers only to have a GM give up a pick for them the same week because they have become (temporarily) waiver exempt by clearing.

If he plays at a 60+ point pace, he probably goes for a 2nd or at worst a 3rd. Judging by the last trade deadline, he should be worth a 2nd+3rd or a 2nd+2nd. I'm not sure he gets that much though.

I think there'll be an element of "expansion draft team" skepticism. There are always players who rack up points on rebuilding or expansion teams because someone has to score. Parenteau had 20 goals on the rebuilding Leafs and was not dealt at the deadline. This leads me to believe that there weren't strong offers. While Namestnikov is a much stronger overall player, it's not like he's some two way beast. Point being, teams might take his point totals with a grain of salt.

 

[AndreRoy]

My guess is a straight 3rd.

I’d say that’s an accurate assessment of his value, with the caveat that overpayments at the TDL are common so it’s quite possible that a GM desperate to improve his team might pay more for him. But IMO a 3rd is about what he’s actually worth as a rental.

And frankly I’m not sure I’d even pay that to bring him back to the Lightning, for the simple reason that he is not built for the playoffs. He’s soft - not mentally, as he doesn’t shy away from physical contact and has no problem jumping in and fighting someone, but physically you could knock him over with a good sneeze. My memory of him in the playoffs is of him constantly getting knocked on his ass. He’s averaged .468 ppg in the regular season and only .138 in the postseason; I don’t have time right now to search for a site that has postseason possession numbers but I suspect a similar comparison in that regard would tell the same story.

So if you’re just looking to improve your borderline playoff team in the hope of increasing your chances of making the postseason then he could be a worthy addition to your lineup, but if you’re already a solid contender and are looking to bolster your depth for a serious run at the Cup then I’d look for somebody better equipped to handle the physicality of the playoffs.