Speculation: Vladislav Namestnikov next contract

[Todd1a]

I'm a bit surprised at the production he is having what do you think his next contract will look like ? it's going to be hard to sign him long term because the kucherov contract is coming up the next summer.

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[HoseEmDown]

I'm a bit surprised at the production he is having what do you think his next contract will look like ? it's going to be hard to sign him long term because the kucherov contract is coming up the next summer.

4 x 17. 4.25 AAV.

 

[The Gongshow]

He's gotten a lot better, specially at some of the tough board battles and getting in front of the net, but lets be honest he's playing with Kucherov and Stamkos. We'll have to see how the rest of the season goes but I doubt he'd get the same numbers playing with Johnson and Killorn

I don't see him getting anything to extreme that will cripple us. Specially with Kuch getting his big payday and Point coming off his ELC

 

[Leonardo87]

He's gotten a lot better, specially at some of the tough board battles and getting in front of the net, but lets be honest he's playing with Kucherov and Stamkos. We'll have to see how the rest of the season goes but I doubt he'd get the same numbers playing with Johnson and Killorn

I don't see him getting anything to extreme that will cripple us. Specially with Kuch getting his big payday and Point coming off his ELC

If you took his PP producion aside and top 6 mins with Kucherov and Stamkos probably would have around what Johnson has, which considering his current contract would be still good. Sure Yzerman knows he is riding the coattails here. I think he gets like a 4 and 4 deal.

 

[LightningStrikes]

Something around $4.5M

 

[Todd1a]

Something around $4.5M

It would be tough to pay him 4.5 avv with point and Kucherov coming

 

[RDTBay4]

Johnson or Point would be more effective on that line.

 

[Rschmitz]

For comparables. Kunitz on the Crosby/Kessel line at 3.75. Anisimov on the Panarin/Kane line at 4.5

4-4.5 is what I'd expect for Namestnikov before factoring in Yzermans wizardry

 

[xteesy]

I'd put him at 3.5 max, probably pushing it to be honest.

He's going to get a "take it or leave it" offer.

You can stay and play with the two (current) best players in the national hockey league, or you can leave and take your skill elsewhere.

Also not to be "that" guy, but Names would not be where he is from an assist/goals/points standpoint without Stamkos and Kucherov.

Stamkos and Kucherov however would still have similar numbers (albeit Stammer would probably have less assists and more goals).

Kucherov is more than likely going to get an identical contract to Stamkos (or at least really damn close, 8.5 isn't unrealistic by any means), and Point will get the same "first" deal that Johnson/Palat got (roughly 3.33).

Between those two alone we're looking at around a $12m hit.

Long story short, we're not going to have a lot of free cash to throw around.

 

[Stammertime91]

When Sustr is traded we will have nearly $2 million freed up so that's a plus.

 

[HoseEmDown]

I'd put him at 3.5 max, probably pushing it to be honest.

He's going to get a "take it or leave it" offer.

You can stay and play with the two (current) best players in the national hockey league, or you can leave and take your skill elsewhere.

Also not to be "that" guy, but Names would not be where he is from an assist/goals/points standpoint without Stamkos and Kucherov.

Stamkos and Kucherov however would still have similar numbers (albeit Stammer would probably have less assists and more goals).

Kucherov is more than likely going to get an identical contract to Stamkos (or at least really damn close, 8.5 isn't unrealistic by any means), and Point will get the same "first" deal that Johnson/Palat got (roughly 3.33).

Between those two alone we're looking at around a $12m hit.

Long story short, we're not going to have a lot of free cash to throw around.

This is terrible on so many levels. He's a RFA after this, why would we give him a take it or leave it offer? We aren't letting him walk.

He put up 35 and 28 points prior to this year without those two players, he's not solely dependent on those two to produce, yes he's producing at a higher clip but he's also finally get consistent top 6 minutes. He's also one of our best advanced stats players, he does a lot of little things that don't show up on the scoresheet which allows the other two to play their game.

He's a 15-20 goal, 40-50 point guy with great underlying stats. That's worth 4 at least. What hurts him is playoff production where he doesn't produce the same but I have no issue giving him 4+, he's easily worth it.

 

[Sky04]

You've been saying he's a 40-50 pt guy for 3 years now and he's never broken 40.... guys a dime a dozen player, one we can easily move on from if the costs become too high.

Not worth 4 m once he becomes expendable off the Stamkos line - which will eventually happen as with just about every 3rd wheel. Then we have 4-5m tweener who's good for 25-35 points

 

[The Macho King]

You've been saying he's a 40-50 pt guy for 3 years now and he's never broken 40.... guys a dime a dozen player, one we can easily move on from if the costs become too high.

Not worth 4 m once he becomes expendable off the Stamkos line - which will eventually happen as with just about every 3rd wheel. Then we have 4-5m tweener who's good for 25-35 points

I think this is a *bit* more dismissive than I would be, but the point is a correct one I think. Chemistry with our top two forwards is worth something - it's not like we can plug anyone onto that line and have them be effective. But his value will be significantly lower than his point production.

He's absolutely a guy we should be careful about giving a big contract to. For all of the hate Killorn's contract (deservedly) gets, he produces roughly the same no matter where he is in the lineup. That's more valuable to me than a guy who can only produce when put in the most positive position imaginable.

 

[Sky04]

I think this is a *bit* more dismissive than I would be, but the point is a correct one I think. Chemistry with our top two forwards is worth something - it's not like we can plug anyone onto that line and have them be effective. But his value will be significantly lower than his point production.

He's absolutely a guy we should be careful about giving a big contract to. For all of the hate Killorn's contract (deservedly) gets, he produces roughly the same no matter where he is in the lineup. That's more valuable to me than a guy who can only produce when put in the most positive position imaginable.

He earns 1.975m now, which I think most of us will agree that's a fair contract based on his previous years. Signing him for 3.5-4 is nearly double what he's making now just for having chemistry with the top-line, how is that not more than fair?

As you said, Killorn makes 4.45 and produces anywhere in the lineup and the playoffs he wouldn't even be that high if not for his playoffruns... Vlad has 4 points in 29 games, no way he should be between 4-5m.

 

[The Macho King]

He earns 1.975m now, which I think most of us will agree that's a fair contract based on his previous years. Signing him for 3.5-4 is nearly double what he's making now just for having chemistry with the top-line, how is that not more than fair?

As you said, Killorn makes 4.45 and produces anywhere in the lineup and the playoffs he wouldn't even be that high if not for his playoffruns... Vlad has 4 points in 29 games, no way he should be between 4-5m.

Was referring to you mentioning him as a dime a dozen player - not getting into the ins and outs of his contract value. Like I said - I ultimately agree with you - I would just phrase it differently.

 

[JoVel]

Agree with Sky here, Namestnikov looked great last year too with Stamkos and Kucherov but as soon as that line was broken down with Stamkos getting injured, he was lost for the rest of the season. You don't want to pay much for a guy who can only succeed in one position. The 2015-16 looked promising for him but still was only able to get 35 points. As of now I have not seen anything to warrant over 4 million for him.

 

[MattM92]

A few years ago when we drafted Drouin, DFC brought up a great point. Those old Detroit teams were built around forward "pairings". Two guys who would be stuck at the hip and a 3rd guy who just fits with them. Back then we thought it would be Stamkos/Drouin and Johnson/Palat. Now we're looking like it's Stamkos/Kucherov and Point/?. Namestnikov is a useful player because he fits with Stamkos/Kucherov nicely, but I'm not sure his utility is worth >4mil. We constantly bitch about Killorn's contract, but the fact is Namestnikov has not outscored Killorn EVER. Namestnikov's BEST statistical season would be Killorn's 4th best. This is the 1st season that Namestnikov will probably have more points than Killorn and it's with two top-5 players on his line. I like Vladdy as much as the next guy, but if we're gonna pay him 4.5 million because he looks good next to Stamkos and Kucherov then I would like to throw my hat into the ring for much less.

 

[Volodya Krutov]

Namestnikov is on pace for a 30 goals / 82 points season, so let's say he gets 20/65. If he needs to, Vladdy will file for arbitration and easily get $4M.

And the Killorn/Namestnikov comparison is just silly. Killer is 3 years older and has been given quantity of minutes with top 6 linemates/PP time over the past 3 season and he peaked at 41 points. It's the first time Namestnikov is in a similar position. The funny thing is that it was made possible probably because Kucherov had to publicly request his presence on the first line. Vladdy's numbers are inflated thanks to his elite linemates but you can't blame him for just gelling with them. Under such circumstances the best thing to do would be to sell him high at the end of the season.

 

[The Macho King]

Namestnikov is on pace for a 30 goals / 82 points season, so let's say he gets 20/65. If he needs to, Vladdy will file for arbitration and easily get $4M.

And the Killorn/Namestnikov comparison is just silly. Killer is 3 years older and has been given quantity of minutes with top 6 linemates/PP time over the past 3 season and he peaked at 41 points. It's the first time Namestnikov is in a similar position. The funny thing is that it was made possible probably because Kucherov had to publicly request his presence on the first line. Vladdy's numbers are inflated thanks to his elite linemates but you can't blame him for just gelling with them. Under such circumstances the best thing to do would be to sell him high at the end of the season.

This line was together when Stamkos was healthy last season - I don't buy that it was because Kucherov requested it.

And I don't think anyone is blaming Vladdy for that, but we have contract issues coming up soon and if we're in a bind, Namestnikov is one that we can part with.

 

[MattM92]

Has Killorn really consistently been with Stamkos and Kucherov? Ever?

 

[Volodya Krutov]

This line was together when Stamkos was healthy last season - I don't buy that it was because Kucherov requested it.

And I don't think anyone is blaming Vladdy for that, but we have contract issues coming up soon and if we're in a bind, Namestnikov is one that we can part with.

Kucherov's statement is a testament to Vladdy as a complementary player, Kuch wasn't happy and let know he wants to play with him. Is Vladdy a PPG player tho ? ***** no, and I'll drive Namestnikov to the airport if that means another team takes the bait in the offseason.

 

[Volodya Krutov]

Has Killorn really consistently been with Stamkos and Kucherov? Ever?

Why would I claim such things if it wasn't the case ? On his 40 point season, Kucherov, Hedman, Stamkos and Stralman were Killer's most common linemates.

 

[DFC]

Vladdy's playing with a lot of confidence now, and he's definitely improved. That said, I think JT Brown would be double digits in points if given a shot with Stamkos and Kucherov as hot as they were to start the season. That's not to say Vladdy didn't do his part, and at times he's looked very good, but he's literally the ONLY guy we've ever consistently slotted next to Kucherov/Stamkos. So until we see those two stink it up with some other player, thus proving Vladdy is an integral part to the chemistry, I'm gonna go ahead and say Vladdy's stats will wind up inflated beyond what he's capable of without a pair of top-20 linemates.

I'd rather use his top line winger/2c reputation to boost his trade value than pay him 4.5.

 

[HoseEmDown]

You've been saying he's a 40-50 pt guy for 3 years now and he's never broken 40.... guys a dime a dozen player, one we can easily move on from if the costs become too high.

Not worth 4 m once he becomes expendable off the Stamkos line - which will eventually happen as with just about every 3rd wheel. Then we have 4-5m tweener who's good for 25-35 points

He hit 35 points his first full year in the league, with natural progression you'd expect he would've hit 40 last year and stay in that range. He had a down year like several others forwards did. He's bouncing back this year, with a lot of help from the top two, but he's showing the offensive ability he has to think he could be a 40+ point guy even without them.

I disagree about the dime a dozen part. He's proven that he's been one of the best puck possession guys, his shot suppression to generation is extremely high, one of the few who can skate it out of our zone and can make zone entries. He has done a lot of those little things and now the offense is catching up. I'd rather have him at 4.5 than Killorn, he's much more versatile in the lineup, what Killorn has on him is playoff production.

 

[JoVel]

Why would I claim such things if it wasn't the case ? On his 40 point season, Kucherov, Hedman, Stamkos and Stralman were Killer's most common linemates.

How about other seasons, since apart from last year Killorn has always been on a 40 point pace in his career.