Noooooooooooooooo. Unless you are a MAF, or Price type of prospect, I think that's a terrible idea. Highest I would take a goalie outside of those select few every 10 years or so would be in the 2nd. Great goalies come in the league every year as past 6th / 7th round picks and do well. Its a toal crap shoot.
Any other draft year I'd agree but I'm not nearly as sold on the defensemen that will be outside the top 15 as I am everyone else, and if projections are correct I'm also not totally thrilled with the forwards that will be there. I've been keeping closer tabs on this draft class than any since 2012 since with the disaster that was Carlyle this year meant Anaheim could draft anywhere from 10 to 1. I don't think that means I'm an expert but I'd at least like to think I have a stronger opinion about this year than any year since 2012.
I'm completely under the moon in regards to the prospects of drafting forwards like Kaliyev, Lavoie, Suzuki, etc. Broberg, Soderstrom, and especially Seider don't really strike me as much more than future second pair defensemen. Seider in particular makes me nervous given that all his hype has come from recent performance. The best defensive prospects of the last 7 or so drafts have been guys that have maintained high draft stocks their whole draft year with the exception of guys like Lindholm and Slavin. But even with a guy like Slavin it was not expected by many that he'd be as good as he is.
Usually I'm not in favor of taking a chance on goalies in the first round either. But I'm also someone who is completely underwhelmed by our crop of goalie prospects. But I'm also of the mind that lately, one of the biggest concerns for successful teams or teams aiming to be successful is acquiring a strong player between the pipes. St. Louis is in the finals in large part because of how good Binnington has become (and that's after years of trying to find a good goalie since Jake Allen just couldn't quite cut it). Philadelphia is well documented as trying hard to figure out their own goalie situation. If Anaheim has any hope of transitioning their prospects to success again, it will be because they have John Gibson. Dallas would not have gotten to where they got without Bishop. And we would not have made the Finals in year 1 if not for Fleury. And Fleury won't be that good for that much longer. In fact, I have doubts he will be good for the entirety of what's left of his contract. And Subban just doesn't inspire confidence that he can be the guy to step into his slot and consistently win us games.
As far as I can remember, Spencer Knight is the most highly touted goaltending prospect since John Gibson and if any prospect was going to appear to be less of a crapshoot at this position, it's him.
I don't think we're overly deep at any position in the pipeline but I do feel we're weakest in net. At defense we have a number of solid players to add to a strong backbone of Schmidt and Theodore including Hague, Schuldt, Bischoff, and Whitecloud. With forwards we have a pretty set forward core locked up under contract that will eventually feature Cody Glass and I just don't feel confident about the forwards that will probably be available to us. I can't say the same about any of our current goalie prospects short of any of them suddenly revealing immense talent that hasn't been displayed yet.
I started out my saying we should draft Knight as something of a joke in my frustration with Subban. But the more I've thought about it the more I'd be okay with taking the chance on a goalie just this once. Reaching into rounds 4-7 to try to hopefully find a starter is even more of a crapshoot as quick firing on the best guy available. Avoiding Knight means we have to rely on Subban to try to play the level of hockey that is required of any team aiming to be a consistent threat. I just don't believe he has it in him, and if I'm right that means we have to hope that in the next 2-3 years one of Dansk, Ferguson, or whoever else can step up and be the guy or seek a replacement out in the FA or trade market which I don't think we'll have the cap space for. Most prominent goalies today are home grow. And of course with Knight it could be 4 years before he's ready to dominate, but at least the potential is there for him to be the team's starter if all goes well with his development.
So just this once, while not forgetting that drafting and developing goalies is a crapshoot, this kid to me appears to be much less of a gamble than goalies of years past. Just this once I'd be in favor of the gamble.
Pronman's Mock Draft 1.0: Projecting the first round of the...
Paywall. Pronman speculates that VGK will pick Alex Newhook at 17
Well that I could get excited for in spite of what I said above.