Speculation: Vancouver Canucks Ownership Commitment to #WINNING!!!

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Betamax*

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This is a side discussion extracted from the current thread ...

Confirmed with Link: [VAN/CAR] Zac Dalpe and Jeremy Welsh for Kellan Tochkin and 4th

I felt it would probably be better to create a separate thread, rather than derail that topic ...

From that thread:

Probably what I like most about this trade was that the Canucks were willing to eat Welsh's contract in the minors.

They weren't willing to spend that kind of money earlier in the summer. Unlike in previous years, they weren't adding to their depth by handing one way contracts to players expected to play on the farm team. And were cheaping out in other ways. For instance, they back-loaded Edler's new contract. If they'd front-loaded it instead, they'd likely have gotten the cap hit down a bit.

Methinks that Francesco's divorce getting settled might have taken pressure off of the Canucks' finances. Hopefully we'll see a return to the team spending whatever necessary to gain an edge again.

Uh, actually with the new CBA and elimination of Bobby Lu/Ehrhoff length type contracts where there were "throwaway" retirement years that you can drop the salary down to a low level, you can't really take advantage of front load contracts to make the significant differences that you have in the past since the year to year drop has had limits place upon them and the max and min difference has been limited. As for the structure of Edler's deal:

http://capgeek.com/player/664

In the first four years, a portion of his salary is paid upfront in the form of signing bonuses.


Actually, you can still front load contracts, just not to the extent in the past. Look no further than the contract Kessel signed this morning.

Still, front loading doesn't really yield the AAV savings advantages you could structure under the previous CBA as witnessed by the Bobby Lu and Ehrhoff deals past since teams can't stretch the contracts to double digit years and add "throwaway" years when the player is "expected" to retire.

The signing bonuses on Edler's contract are besides the point. The dollar value of his contract peaks towards the end of the deal. That's why it's backloaded.

Not really, it peaks in the middle years: in year 3 and 4.

Generally speaking, it's more valuable for players to have their contracts front loaded. They can invest their earnings earlier. It also makes it easier to trade a player later in his contract if his salary is lower than his cap hit. The fact that the Canucks did not do this indicates they were trying to save money in the short term.

I understand the concept of the time value of money. But the way the Edler contract was structured at least to me does not really give a definitive conclusion that the primary motivation was to save money in the short run i.e. to penny pinch.

I think it was done to a large degree for the possibility of moving Edler not later in his contract as you suggest ... but earlier as it was widely speculated that Edler was on the possible trading block this off-season before his NTC kicked in and even after, with various rumors being floated around (including Carolina's 2013 1st round pick) and most recently, Botchford on TEAM Radio's Rintoul show, yesterday (Sept. 30/2013), mentioned that there was discussion with the Red Wings about a possible deal involving Brendan Smith and a 1st round pick for Edler.

So it seems to me that the Edler deal was constructed to make it more palatable and easier for the Canucks to move Edler if they decided to actually pull the trigger and make a more significant change when it came to "resetting" the team by changing pieces from their core rather than standing pat like they have chosen to do for now.

As for your final point about front loading deals to lower the overall AAV ... like I said, the new CBA limits total contract lengths to a max of eight years (if signing own players) and seven if UFA or RFA offer sheet, therefore, a Bobby Lu or Ehrhoff type deals under the old CBA, aren't possible with new CBA with salary variance on contracts from year to year can be no more than 35% and in no year can be less than 50% of the highest year.

Now given the limits of the agreed six year deal and the new rules of the CBA I don't think there would be much of a savings in AAV even if you front-loaded the deal to the max under those provisions and kept the overall value of the deal of 30M. Someone else is welcome to do the actual calculations if they have nothing else better do to ...

Therefore, I don't think the Edler contract signing is a good indicator on the Canucks shifting from being one of the upper echelon, "RICH" teams committed to spend to the max or near it as per the current rules permit for the goals of #WINNING!!!

I believe they are still using their current economic strengths of being one of profitable teams in the NHL and using this advantage over other franchises to re-invest it back onto their on-ice product and not just pocketing it.

However, I believe that this is an area that should be monitored as I get the sense that Canucks branding and interest has tapered from its peak in 2011 and it's not as easy a sell as it once was when it comes to attendance (note the relatively soft demand for Playoffs tickets in 2013 versus a few years earlier) and it will be interesting to see if we do see the Canucks being more "thrifty" when it comes to spending if they aren't as profitable as they have been, moving forward.

Recently, they have shown a willingness to spend and re-invest on their future on-ice product when they decided to purchase a minor league team so they have more direct control on the player personnel on the team.
 

Eddy Punch Clock

Jack Adams 2028
Jun 13, 2007
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Too bad they weren't committed enough to buy out Lou. But I can completely understand why they didn't. Thats one expensive eraser.

I still get Schneider separation anxiety every now and then though. :cry:
 
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arsmaster*

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At least we have Horvat out of it instead of the owner losing tens of millions of dollars for nothing.

Could you imagine the melodrama around here had they bought out Luongo and still iced the same team....oh wait, the lack of a blue chip prospect and the extra $1.3m of cap space would have netted us a Crosby-lite Im sure.
 

Betamax*

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To compliance buy out Bobby Lu ... or not.

Too bad they weren't committed enough to buy our Lou. But I can completely understand why they didn't. Thats one expensive eraser.

I still get Schneider separation anxiety every now and then though. :cry:

Below is my reply to a thread about a month ago, that appeared in The Business of Hockey forum, entitled:

"Vancouver Sun looks at Canucks ownership structure"

original link to my post: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=70974737&postcount=3

(Given the lack of replies to that thread, I assume most Canucks fans don't regularly visit that forum too often).

One reason for this story is that Aquilini's divorce is starting. Note, that unless financial and business matters related to (only) the Cancuks (of all his business dealings) come out in the trial, there is no need for any discussion on the divorce proceedings.

In their Saturday and Monday editions of the Vancouver Sun, the Aquilini business empire made front page news as the Sun had published a series of stories.

This article provided some interesting insights into how they operate their businesses:

Inside the Aquilini empire: Multibillion-dollar trust at the heart of bitter divorce
Divorce procedings between Francesco and Tali’ah Aquilini spills over into B.C. Supreme Court today

By Jeff Lee, Vancouver Sun September 9, 2013

Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/sports/...trust+heart+bitter+divorce/8885493/story.html

Here are the tidbits I found particularly interesting with insight on the Patriarch of the family:

Luigi, the patriarch of the family, is equally as well-known as his 53-year-old eldest son. An immigrant from Brescia, Italy, who at 81 still has a prodigious capacity for hard work, Luigi over the past half century has built a dynasty for his family. A man who brags he got two jobs a day after arriving virtually penniless from Italy in 1956, Luigi leapfrogged his way from bricklaying, foundry work and landscaping to building houses and apartments, to owning investment properties to buying vast tracts of farm land that is bringing him close to cornering the year-round supply of blueberries to major food markets. Which job or trade he dropped was dependent upon what other business made him more money.

Luigi’s flinty business and family dealings revolve around two overarching and unbendable rules: make money and contribute. If you don’t contribute, he said in a recent interview, “you can’t take out†of the company. No one, he said, gets a free ride in his empire. Not his children, not their children, not his employees, not even himself.

I found it very interesting as the other local paper, The Province's publish an interviewed with his son, Francesco (the face of Canucks Ownership) on the Canucks:


Willes: Canucks' owner Aquilini only sees the positives

By Ed Willes, The Province September 8, 2013

http://www.theprovince.com/sports/h...s+owner+Francesco+Aquilini/8883619/story.html

Specifically on the possibility of "buying out" Luongo:

The Luongo soap opera, meanwhile, took a surprise twist this summer when the Canucks opted to trade Cory Schneider to New Jersey at the draft. Aquilini, for the record, said buying out Luongo was never discussed, and in the end, there were a host of reasons for trading Schneider and keeping Luongo.

“We gave Roberto a lifetime contract because we really believed in him,†Aquilini said. “We thought of him as the ultimate Canuck, as the guy who represented our team.

“But all of a sudden we had these two great goalies. We decided unanimously Roberto was our guy. We went back to the contract and why we signed him. Cory’s a great goalie. But Roberto’s our guy.â€

Maybe I'm reading a bit too much from the two quotes, but I think unless it's in best possible business decision to buy-out the contract (a last resort), a compliance buyout on Bobby Lu would have been deemed giving him a "free ride" out of town.

It's pretty clear to me that the Hockey Operations department clearly felt that Cory Schneider was "their guy" for well over a year when during that time (when there wasn't a lockout) they tried unsuccessfully several times to move Bobby Lu (hampered in part due to his NTC) but I think what transpired was that they thought they could make a good "hockey trade" and get at least some value back when they were offering Bobby Lu to the market ... only to see the market say, we're not paying your asking price and it seemed to me at the last possible moment, the Canucks were left scrambling and had to resort to plan B and trade The Cory for less than optimal trade value due to pressures of getting under the Salary Cap and having an unmanageable "two goalies, one net" scenario, when they found there were no taker's for Bobby Lu and most importantly his contract.

This is just speculation but I suspect that there were several NHL say, maybe a team like the Flyers who were hoping that the Canucks would have compliance bought out Bobby Lu, so that they would have signed him with the money they allocated instead towards another big name player in Vinny Lecavalier that was actually compliance bought out.

I guess Bobby Lu was hoping for a compliance buyout from the Canucks as well, and then sign another lucrative contract with a team like the Flyers. So, I don't blame Bobby Lu for being disappointed when he saw a a Lecavalier bought out and sign another nice contract to a potential Stanley Cup contender in the East Coast, while we was "stuck" with the team he thought was going to move him ... one way or another.

Thoughts?
 

Wetcoaster

Guest
Could you imagine the melodrama around here had they bought out Luongo and still iced the same team....oh wait, the lack of a blue chip prospect and the extra $1.3m of cap space would have netted us a Crosby-lite Im sure.
Yup.

Thinking things through logically is becoming a lost art for many it seems, eh?
 

Betamax*

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Could you imagine the melodrama around here had they bought out Luongo and still iced the same team....oh wait, the lack of a blue chip prospect and the extra $1.3m of cap space would have netted us a Crosby-lite Im sure.

Yup.

Thinking things through logically is becoming a lost art for many it seems, eh?

That potential melodrama ... was replaced with the current melodrama we still have with an (allegedly) unhappy to be here Bobby Lu still on this team.
 

Wetcoaster

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I guess Bobby Lu was hoping for a compliance buyout from the Canucks as well, and then sign another lucrative contract with a team like the Flyers. So, I don't blame Bobby Lu for being disappointed when he saw a a Lecavalier bought out and sign another nice contract to a potential Stanley Cup contender in the East Coast, while we was "stuck" with the team he thought was going to move him ... one way or another.

Thoughts?
I must have missed the part of the prior negotiations on Luongo's current deal where Gillis made him an offer he couldn't refuse - did Luca Brais Laurence Gilman put a gun to his head and Gillis assured him that either his brains or his signature would be on the contract? ;)
 

Betamax*

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I must have missed the part of the prior negotiations on Luongo's current deal where Gillis made him an offer he couldn't refuse - did Luca Brais Laurence Gilman put a gun to his head and Gillis assured him that either his brains or his signature would be on the contract? ;)

Well, I don't blame the Canucks Ownership for not Compliance Buying out an unhappy Bobby Lu. Because, all things being equal and *if* and it's a big *if* Bobby Lu remains a "professional", his ~5.3M AAV is relatively good "hockey value" for a goalie of his caliber and better if he regains top five form during some of those years, whereas Vinny L.'s previous ~7.7M AAV (before being Compliance Bought out) is several millions more than the expected value returned on projecting his on-ice performance, versus a Bobby Lu, comparatively the next five years or so.
 

Hammer79

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Jan 9, 2009
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Maybe I'm reading a bit too much from the two quotes, but I think unless it's in best possible business decision to buy-out the contract (a last resort), a compliance buyout on Bobby Lu would have been deemed giving him a "free ride" out of town.

It's pretty clear to me that the Hockey Operations department clearly felt that Cory Schneider was "their guy" for well over a year when during that time (when there wasn't a lockout) they tried unsuccessfully several times to move Bobby Lu (hampered in part due to his NTC) but I think what transpired was that they thought they could make a good "hockey trade" and get at least some value back when they were offering Bobby Lu to the market ... only to see the market say, we're not paying your asking price and it seemed to me at the last possible moment, the Canucks were left scrambling and had to resort to plan B and trade The Cory for less than optimal trade value due to pressures of getting under the Salary Cap and having an unmanageable "two goalies, one net" scenario, when they found there were no taker's for Bobby Lu and most importantly his contract.

This is just speculation but I suspect that there were several NHL say, maybe a team like the Flyers who were hoping that the Canucks would have compliance bought out Bobby Lu, so that they would have signed him with the money they allocated instead towards another big name player in Vinny Lecavalier that was actually compliance bought out.

I guess Bobby Lu was hoping for a compliance buyout from the Canucks as well, and then sign another lucrative contract with a team like the Flyers. So, I don't blame Bobby Lu for being disappointed when he saw a a Lecavalier bought out and sign another nice contract to a potential Stanley Cup contender in the East Coast, while we was "stuck" with the team he thought was going to move him ... one way or another.

Thoughts?

There's a big difference between the Lecavalier and potential Luongo buyout. Lecavalier was signed to that contract by a previous ownership group. Current ownership inherited that contract, so they aren't admitting a mistake on their part by buying him out. The cap hit didn't match his current offensive output, let alone several years from now.

Luongo was signed under current ownership, and they are only 3 years in to that deal. He didn't under-perform in that time, he is still in the prime of his career. AV just developed a favoritism for Schneider, and now AV is gone. His cap hit is actually a bargain compared to his performance relative to other goaltenders in the league. Was the asking price too high? Probably, but MG knew that he could always move Schneider in a heartbeat and sell high on him. The back-up plan of keeping Luongo wasn't unpalatable.

I'm sure Luongo would have loved to double-dip with CBO earnings plus a new contract at close to same $ minus the term but too bad, your contract sucks buddy, got to honour it.
 

Eddy Punch Clock

Jack Adams 2028
Jun 13, 2007
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2 posts in and I derail this thread into another buying out Lou debate.

Sorry guys.

The Devil made me do it.

180798402.0_standard_352.0.jpg
 
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Betamax*

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There's a big difference between the Lecavalier and potential Luongo buyout. Lecavalier was signed to that contract by a previous ownership group. Current ownership inherited that contract, so they aren't admitting a mistake on their part by buying him out. The cap hit didn't match his current offensive output, let alone several years from now.

Is "admitting" a mistake really the biggest pox? I mean the Flyers "admitted" to their mistake when they compliance bought out Bryzgalov. The difference here is that the Flyers determined they couldn't win with Bryz ... while the Canucks still believe they can stil win with Bobby Lu. But can they do that for the long-term when there is no Sochi 2014 Starting Job on the line and you possibly have an "unhappy" Bobby Lu here?

Luongo was signed under current ownership, and they are only 3 years in to that deal. He didn't under-perform in that time, he is still in the prime of his career. AV just developed a favoritism for Schneider, and now AV is gone.

If the Canucks Management didn't agree with Coach AV on their assessment that The Cory was the better goalie and Bobby Lu, then they would have just traded The Cory instead of putting Bobby Lu on the market for over a year.


His cap hit is actually a bargain compared to his performance relative to other goaltenders in the league. Was the asking price too high? Probably, but MG knew that he could always move Schneider in a heartbeat and sell high on him. The back-up plan of keeping Luongo wasn't unpalatable.

Despite Horvat being a very promising prospect, I don't think anyone who has analyzed the deal when it came to risk/reward can say The Cory was sold on a "high" ... more like in a panic sell mode.

I'm sure Luongo would have loved to double-dip with CBO earnings plus a new contract at close to same $ minus the term but too bad, your contract sucks buddy, got to honour it.

If you're in a unhappy marriage, do you really believe that you should hold true to the vows ... "Till Death Do Us Part?" and honour the "contract"?!?
 
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Wetcoaster

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IIf you're in a unhappy marriage, do you really believe that you should hold true to the vows ... "Till Death Do Us Part?" and honour the "contract"?!?
Is that not what hitmen are for??? :D
 

Betamax*

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Um, yes? Isn't that kind of the purpose of a vow/contract?

Well ... I'd have to disagree. In specific circumstances, divorces is the best remedy to a problem. By the way, what's the current divorce rate?

Is that not what hitmen are for??? :D

Well ... imagine if all divorces were illegal and not permitted ... I think there would be a lot of creative and uncreative nefarious methods utilized to effectively get out of the "vow/contract."
 

Timmer44

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While it hurt to lose Schneider, the Canucks did get an asset. The value may not have been equal, but it's a good asset.

What has been forgotten is that Lou has a right to submit of 5 teams he would like to be traded to AFTER this season. It's in his contract.

I think this plays out in one of three ways:

#1 (Everything is rosy) - Lou plays good/great in an Olympic year and finds he is a good fit under Torts, and would like to stay. Canucks keep him going into 2014/15

#2 (My guess as most likely) - Lou plays good/great yet still would like to be moved after the season. He supplies a list of teams he would like to be moved to and Gillis trades him. Potential here is that the teams look to the Canucks to retain more salary than it would cost to actually buy him out and the Canucks simply use their last compliance buyout.

#3 - Lou stinks and has a bad season or has a falling out with Torts. At the end of the year he'll ask for the trade and is either traded or bought out.

There is no bad year, stay as a Canuck in my opinion. If he doesn't play well this season, he's done as a Canuck.
 

Betamax*

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While it hurt to lose Schneider, the Canucks did get an asset. The value may not have been equal, but it's a good asset.

What has been forgotten is that Lou has a right to submit of 5 teams he would like to be traded to AFTER this season. It's in his contract.

I wonder how much "teeth" that clause actually has. I mean, he can submit 5 teams but that doesn't mean the Canucks are obligated to accept any deal offer from said team ... even if it is a division rival.

I think this plays out in one of three ways:

#1 (Everything is rosy) - Lou plays good/great in an Olympic year and finds he is a good fit under Torts, and would like to stay. Canucks keep him going into 2014/15

Here's a potential scenario. Bobby Lu becomes the starter for Sochi 2014 (meaning he's played well up to that point for the Canucks) ... Team Canada repeats as gold winner with Bobby Lu as the starter.

At around that time, that might be where his trade stock will be its highest. I see the Pens as a potential destination point in part because he hired the agent who also represents the Golden Kid. If the Golden Kid approves of Bobby Lu (depending on how Sochi 2014 turns out) ... then that might be the one spot where another team will be willing to go all-in given the Golden Kid's touch and go health status and instability with their own goaltending situation,.

So, how about a possible Bobby Lu to the Pens swap for MAF before the 2014 trade deadline?

With many conditions and permutations of conditional picks going either way. For example, If the Canucks win the Stanley Cup with MAF in the next two seasons they have to surrender a 1st round pick to the Pens. If the Pens win the Stanley Cup with Bobby Lu being the goalie of record in 2013/14, they have to surrender a 1st round pick to the Canucks.

If the Canucks compliance buy-out MAF the Pens have to give them a 3rd round pick.

If the Pens feel that they have to compliance buy-out Bobby Lu, the Canucks have to surrender a 1st round pick to them and maybe more etc....

#2 (My guess as most likely) - Lou plays good/great yet still would like to be moved after the season. He supplies a list of teams he would like to be moved to and Gillis trades him. Potential here is that the teams look to the Canucks to retain more salary than it would cost to actually buy him out and the Canucks simply use their last compliance buyout.

I think if Bobby Lu sticks around for the remainder of this upcoming season, the only way I can possibly envision he stays longer with the Canucks than past this season is if he wins the Stanley Cup with him as the starter this season or they come close and he's not to "blame" for not winning it like the criticism he received from some during the 2011 run.

If not, and he plays well enough during the regular season and the Canucks have an okay run in the Playoffs ... I think the only realistic way to make a hockey trade would be for the Canucks to retain a portion of his contract in a trade.

#3 - Lou stinks and has a bad season or has a falling out with Torts. At the end of the year he'll ask for the trade and is either traded or bought out.

There is no bad year, stay as a Canuck in my opinion. If he doesn't play well this season, he's done as a Canuck.

If he doesn't play well at all this upcoming season and the Canucks miss the Playoffs, a compliance buy-out will probably be the only option. The only upside is that the Canucks will get a high draft pick because of this.
 
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Canucker

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Well ... I'd have to disagree. In specific circumstances, divorces is the best remedy to a problem. By the way, what's the current divorce rate?



Well ... imagine if all divorces were illegal and not permitted ... I think there would be a lot of creative and uncreative nefarious methods utilized to effectively get out of the "vow/contract."

The best "remedy" is to not get married at all.
 

Wetcoaster

Guest
Well ... imagine if all divorces were illegal and not permitted ... I think there would be a lot of creative and uncreative nefarious methods utilized to effectively get out of the "vow/contract."
Well... first renounce the Catholic Church, set up your own religion and become head of a new church allowing for divorce.

Worked for Henry VIII, eh?
 

Betamax*

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The best "remedy" is to not get married at all.

Well ... say that to the millions that do get married and then opt for a divorce whether it be mutual or unilateral decision. Circumstances change.
 

dave babych returns

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Dec 2, 2011
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I am not happy about the general creep of hashtags off of twitter and into other social media and your use of them in TWO thread titles now is particularly egregious (to say nothing of the Charlie Sheen reference); poster Betamax, you are on notice.
 

Betamax*

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I am not happy about the general creep of hashtags off of twitter and into other social media and your use of them in TWO thread titles now is particularly egregious (to say nothing of the Charlie Sheen reference); poster Betamax, you are on notice.

In fairness for that other thread I created on this forum ... the real inspiration for it came from a tweet from Mr. Booth himself a few months back, hence the #beastmode reference!

As for this particular thread ... well ... I think you make a pretty good point with the thinly veiled reference to Mr. Sheen. #LOL ... :laugh:
 

Betamax*

Guest
Commited to winning? Oh good thing they told us!

Well from that Vancouver Sun article:

Luigi’s flinty business and family dealings revolve around two overarching and unbendable rules: make money and contribute. If you don’t contribute, he said in a recent interview, “you can’t take out” of the company. No one, he said, gets a free ride in his empire. Not his children, not their children, not his employees, not even himself.

I think winning is good for their business bottom line. But not winning at all costs when the risk/reward doesn't justify it.

I mean if they did decide to sink 28M into a compliance buy-out for Bobby Lu last off-season ... it may mean, with The Cory in net, the Canucks might win a few more games and improve the team's playoffs position for this upcoming season.

But the wildcard is the Playoffs (where you can make that loss back if you go into an extended run) where the difference between winning and losing a game or series can come down to several Ref's officiating decisions over the course of the series that is "biased" against your team ...
 
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