Proposal: VAN-PIT change of scenery

[Canuck Luck]

Seems weird that you'd expect to get a player that is more in line with 50+ than the 30+ Mikheyev is and has less term then..

Well when the 30+ guy averages 40 per 82 games, just cant stay healthy, and the 50+ is turning 33 years old in 1.5 months AND is showing some serious decline to the point he's on par with the 30+ guy, it makes sense.

The Canucks don't need to pay a 2nd to obtain a similar level 33 year old signed for an extra 250k just to get out of something 2 years from now.

2 years from now the cap projects to be 92-93M. 4M will likely be the going rate for average 3rd line players anyways by then.

 

[Jared Dunn]

I think the deal in the OP is reasonable in value, but I don't think the Penguins adding Mikheyev really does much to help them.

I think they could sell off Smith for a 3rd round pick without taking back Mikheyev's deal. I'd much rather take the $5 million in cap space (or a little bit less if they retain to get a better return) than just get a slight pick upgrade to swap Smith for Mikheyev.

I don't believe at this point they could get a 3rd for him at full cap personally. Maybe a later pick but I wouldn't even bet he has positive value really

 

[Empoleon8771]

I don't believe at this point they could get a 3rd for him at full cap personally. Maybe a later pick but I wouldn't even bet he has positive value really

Based on what? He was traded for a 3rd last off-season and is still on pace for 40 points this year.

Teams know what he can do in the playoffs, they're not going to refuse to trade for him because he hasn't fit amazingly well with the Penguins.

At the deadline last year, Nieddereiter had 28 points in 56 games with another year at $4 million left on his deal. He was traded for a 2nd.

 

[Jared Dunn]

Based on what? He was traded for a 3rd last off-season and is still on pace for 40 points this year.

Teams know what he can do in the playoffs, they're not going to refuse to trade for him because he hasn't fit amazingly well with the Penguins.

At the deadline last year, Nieddereiter had 28 points in 56 games with another year at $4 million left on his deal. He was traded for a 2nd.

I didn't say refuse but I think it's overly optimistic to think you'll get the same value back. Cap space being at a premium and there being expiring and/or cheaper options for contenders who would be interested. With Smith being soon to be 33 I also don't think GMs will be wholly convinced this is entirely just a bad fit and some of this isn't just an older player beginning to decline. The only contender I really feel like MIGHT be willing to give that 3rd is Vegas, but I think his extra year nixes that given their cap situation really comes to a head this summer and they won't want that on the books

 

[Empoleon8771]

I didn't say refuse but I think it's overly optimistic to think you'll get the same value back. Cap space being at a premium and there being expiring and/or cheaper options for contenders who would be interested. With Smith being soon to be 33 I also don't think GMs will be wholly convinced this is entirely just a bad fit and some of this isn't just an older player beginning to decline. The only contender I really feel like MIGHT be willing to give that 3rd is Vegas, but I think his extra year nixes that given their cap situation really comes to a head this summer and they won't want that on the books

I think pointing at Niederreiter as a similar guy who brought back similar value is worth far more than speculating that teams may not like him.

The Penguins only got him for a 3rd initially because Vegas desperately had to clear cap space. The Penguins situation now is they're just sellers. I wouldn't expect more than what they paid based on him having a mediocre year, but there's really nothing to support that they wouldn't be able to trade him for that kind of value.

He's a proven playoff performer with cup experience that's only signed for another year, while he's still putting up a 40 point pace this year. I think you'll find numerous teams interested in him, which is pretty much what has been reported by people like Seravalli and Friedman.

 

[Jared Dunn]

I think pointing at Niederreiter as a similar guy who brought back similar value is worth far more than speculating that teams may not like him.

The Penguins only got him for a 3rd initially because Vegas desperately had to clear cap space. The Penguins situation now is they're just sellers. I wouldn't expect more than what they paid based on him having a mediocre year, but there's really nothing to support that they wouldn't be able to trade him for that kind of value.

He's a proven playoff performer with cup experience that's only signed for another year, while he's still putting up a 40 point pace this year. I think you'll find numerous teams interested in him, which is pretty much what has been reported by people like Seravalli and Friedman.

Seravalli and Friedman specifically aren't saying "at full cap", that's an important detail here imo. What contenders do you honestly think would be interested in adding a player like him for 5 million right now? Florida and Vegas, his former teams, are two of the only playoff teams who can afford him under this year's payroll, and they are probably the two teams that need cap flexibility to re-sign their other players the most this summer. Maybe Buffalo would want him because they want to add some good vets to help turn a corner I personally just think the market is a lot more limited than you seem to without any retention or taking money back

 

[Empoleon8771]

Seravalli and Friedman specifically aren't saying "at full cap", that's an important detail here imo. What contenders do you honestly think would be interested in adding a player like him for 5 million right now? Florida and Vegas, his former teams, are two of the only playoff teams who can afford him under this year's payroll, and they are probably the two teams that need cap flexibility to re-sign their other players the most this summer. Maybe Buffalo would want him because they want to add some good vets to help turn a corner I personally just think the market is a lot more limited than you seem to without any retention or taking money back

That's just you creating a narrative out of nothing.

There's no reason to think that the Penguins will need to retain on Smith to trade him. None at all. Worst case scenario, they send him for a cap dump rental (someone like Lorentz from Florida) and a 3rd.

The cap is projected to rise by $5 million or so next year. Smith's extra year at $5 million isn't a problem. Florida is $400k short of having enough prorated cap space to be able to afford Smith this year, while Vegas has $6 million in LTIR space.

 

[Jared Dunn]

That's just you creating a narrative out of nothing.

There's no reason to think that the Penguins will need to retain on Smith to trade him. None at all. Worst case scenario, they send him for a cap dump rental (someone like Lorentz from Florida) and a 3rd.

The cap is projected to rise by $5 million or so next year. Smith's extra year at $5 million isn't a problem. Florida is $400k short of having enough prorated cap space to be able to afford Smith this year, while Vegas has $6 million in LTIR space.

First of all my first comment was literally: "I don't believe at this point they could get a 3rd for him at full cap personally" I'm not creating a narrative out of nothing, you just aren't following it. There was interest in Ristolainen before injury as well, but nobody is taking him just straight up at full cap either

You're referencing the payroll of those two teams for this year and I already said they could both take him on this year, but 100% wouldn't be interested in taking on his 5 million next year. Go take a look at Florida and Vegas' cap situation for next year and the players they need to re-sign. You think Florida wants to take on 5 million for a third liner when they're already potentially having to decide between players like Montour, Forsling and Reinhart? Vegas wants that cap hit when having Marchessault and Stephenson as UFAs and will be looking to either re-sign Martinez or find a replacement? You're looking at his value in a vacuum, take a look outside of Pittsburgh and actually think how many teams he makes sense on

 

[Empoleon8771]

First of all my first comment was literally: "I don't believe at this point they could get a 3rd for him at full cap personally" I'm not creating a narrative out of nothing, you just aren't following it. There was interest in Ristolainen before injury as well, but nobody is taking him just straight up at full cap either

You're referencing the payroll of those two teams for this year and I already said they could both take him on this year, but 100% wouldn't be interested in taking on his 5 million next year. Go take a look at Florida and Vegas' cap situation for next year and the players they need to re-sign. You think Florida wants to take on 5 million for a third liner when they're already potentially having to decide between players like Montour, Forsling and Reinhart? Vegas wants that cap hit when having Marchessault and Stephenson as UFAs and will be looking to either re-sign Martinez or find a replacement? You're looking at his value in a vacuum, take a look outside of Pittsburgh and actually think how many teams he makes sense on

Florida has $28 million in cap space this off-season. Vegas has $13 million in cap space this off-season. Neither of those teams are going to re-sign every pending UFA they have.

Calling Smith a 3rd liner is factually wrong and just shows you're not arguing in good faith here whatsoever. Maybe those teams want him for the exact same reason that the Penguins wanted him last year: he's a proven 2nd line talent that has an excellent playoff track record, meaning they want to add him to be a 2nd liner for them. Especially for a low cost relative to what guys like Smith normally go for.

There are countless of players exactly like Smith with similar production and similar contracts that have been traded for value without needing to retain money in recent years, all of while the cap was flat. But suddenly the Penguins are going to have issues with trading Smith without retention, despite the projected $5 million rise in the cap?

 

[wej20]

Canucks say no. 1 for 1 is the only way the Canucks consider it. Mikheyev is signed for 1 more year but he is also 3.5 years younger, coming off a major surgery that generally takes a year before the player recovers. Smith seems to just be hitting the end of his career.

If 1 bad year of Dickinson made his value drop from 3rd round pick to negative 2nd round pick, 1 bad year of Rielly at 32 going on 33 is going to be even worse. Anyone that thinks he has positive value or even a 3rd round pick as one suggested is out to lunch. You'd be lucky to get out of his deal for future considerations with no retention. No one is going to want a soon to be 33 year old 5M player thats producing at a 40 point pace.

So we're giving one player the benefit of down on bouncing back from injury but not the other for not fitting in great on his new team?

 

[Canuck Luck]

So we're giving one player the benefit of down on bouncing back from injury but not the other for not fitting in great on his new team?

One is 29 by the start of next season and there is a recent history (given the advancement tecnology and medicine) of players coming off that kind of surgery needing a full year to get back to their previous level. The other is turning 33 in under 2 months and there is just as big if not bigger history of players not being able to get back to their previous forms whether recent or not.

Of course the 29 year old coming off a major surgery is going to get the benefit of the doubt instead of the soon to be 33 year old change of scenery player.

 

[Empoleon8771]

One is 29 by the start of next season and there is a recent history (given the advancement tecnology and medicine) of players coming off that kind of surgery needing a full year to get back to their previous level. The other is turning 33 in under 2 months and there is just as big if not bigger history of players not being able to get back to their previous forms whether recent or not.

Of course the 29 year old coming off a major surgery is going to get the benefit of the doubt instead of the soon to be 33 year old change of scenery player.

Mikheyev turns 30 like a week into next season. This kind of stuff is just insanely disingenuous.

They're both in their early 30s starting next year, Smith's a little bit older but not by a ton.

So we're giving one player the benefit of down on bouncing back from injury but not the other for not fitting in great on his new team?

This thread is just full of Canucks fans trying to sell their inferior piece as equal to a clearly better piece. It's really bizarre.

Mikheyev has been outproduced in every year he has been in the league compared to Smith, is signed for an extra year and has a really concerning injury history. Of course Canucks fans would do straight up, they're getting an obviously better asset for nothing.

 

[wej20]

One is 29 by the start of next season and there is a recent history (given the advancement tecnology and medicine) of players coming off that kind of surgery needing a full year to get back to their previous level. The other is turning 33 in under 2 months and there is just as big if not bigger history of players not being able to get back to their previous forms whether recent or not.

Of course the 29 year old coming off a major surgery is going to get the benefit of the doubt instead of the soon to be 33 year old change of scenery player.

33, let's take him outside and shoot him. Smith paced for 55+ point for the past two season and he's on pace for 38 points this season on a struggling Pens team with one of the worst PPs in the league.

 

[Jared Dunn]

Florida has $28 million in cap space this off-season. Vegas has $13 million in cap space this off-season. Neither of those teams are going to re-sign every pending UFA they have.

Calling Smith a 3rd liner is factually wrong and just shows you're not arguing in good faith here whatsoever. Maybe those teams want him for the exact same reason that the Penguins wanted him last year: he's a proven 2nd line talent that has an excellent playoff track record, meaning they want to add him to be a 2nd liner for them. Especially for a low cost relative to what guys like Smith normally go for.

There are countless of players exactly like Smith with similar production and similar contracts that have been traded for value without needing to retain money in recent years, all of while the cap was flat. But suddenly the Penguins are going to have issues with trading Smith without retention, despite the projected $5 million rise in the cap?

So you genuinely think teams will think it's a smart idea to add Smith's 5 million cap hit next year when they have better UFAs to worry about?

And I'm not arguing in bad faith, he's playing like a good third liner, name me a single contender who Smith would currently play in the top six for. Almost anyone would be acquiring him as a 3rd line depth scoring role and 5 mill is too much for that. The Penguins are a non-playoff team with relatively poor forward depth, the fact that Smith hasn't been able to be a good 2nd line option even for them doesn't help the proven 2nd liner identity

 

[Empoleon8771]

So you genuinely think teams will think it's a smart idea to add Smith's 5 million cap hit next year when they have better UFAs to worry about?

And I'm not arguing in bad faith, he's playing like a good third liner, name me a single contender who Smith would currently play in the top six for. Almost anyone would be acquiring him as a 3rd line depth scoring role and 5 mill is too much for that. The Penguins are a non-playoff team with relatively poor forward depth, the fact that Smith hasn't been able to be a good 2nd line option even for them doesn't help the proven 2nd liner identity

The team that literally won the Stanley Cup last year, where Smith was playing about 17 minutes a night for.

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If you seriously think 50 games of being an ill-fit on a declining Penguins team overrides basically an entire career of being 2nd line caliber on good teams, I don't know what to tell you.

 

[Canuck Luck]

Mikheyev turns 30 like a week into next season. This kind of stuff is just insanely disingenuous.

They're both in their early 30s starting next year, Smith's a little bit older but not by a ton.



This thread is just full of Canucks fans trying to sell their inferior piece as equal to a clearly better piece. It's really bizarre.

Mikheyev has been outproduced in every year he has been in the league compared to Smith, is signed for an extra year and has a really concerning injury history. Of course Canucks fans would do straight up, they're getting an obviously better asset for nothing.

It's disingenous that i'm pointing out the additional 6 month gap especially considering one player is near the end of his career? Also 3 years is definitely a ton especially in sports. Wanna know just how much it changes?

3 years from now the cap will jump up 10M+
3 years from now most contenders windows will have closed.
3 years from now Mikheyev's contract will have ended.
3 years from now all but 1 Canuck player's contract will have ended
3 years ago, anything above 7-8M was considered way too much for any player that wasnt a franchise player
3 years from now Rielly Smith will likely be retired

the average player salary 3 years ago was 2.7M. In a flat cap world in 3 years, it has gone up to 3.5M. 3 years from now the average player salary will likely be 5M+

Tell us more on how 3 years is a small time frame

 

[Empoleon8771]

It's disingenous that i'm pointing out the additional 6 month gap especially considering one player is near the end of his career? Also 3 years is definitely a ton especially in sports. Wanna know just how much it changes?

3 years from now the cap will jump up 10M+
3 years from now most contenders windows will have closed.
3 years from now Mikheyev's contract will have ended.
3 years from now all but 1 Canuck player's contract will have ended
3 years ago, anything above 7-8M was considered way too much for any player that wasnt a franchise player
3 years from now Rielly Smith will likely be retired

the average player salary 3 years ago was 2.7M. In a flat cap world in 3 years, it has gone up to 3.5M. 3 years from now the average player salary will likely be 5M+

Tell us more on how 3 years is a small time frame

It's disingenuous to say that Mikheyev is "29 to start next season" when he turns 30 literally a week into the season. Both of these guys are in their early 30s to start next year. Smith is a bit older than Mikheyev, but Mikheyev isn't young. Both of them are likely past their primes and will only get worse as they get older.

Mikheyev is going to be 30 and is still struggling with healing from a major knee injury, which is coming right from Canucks fans in here. Look at what a major knee injury did to Connor Brown, and Brown was younger than Mikheyev. Saying Smith is a major risk because he's 33 while Mikheyev struggling to bounce back from a major knee injury at age 30 isn't a problem is just dumb.

 

[Canuck Luck]

33, let's take him outside and shoot him. Smith paced for 55+ point for the past two season and he's on pace for 38 points this season on a struggling Pens team with one of the worst PPs in the league.

Are you really saying a 33 year old is not near the end of their careers and are not subject to slowing down due to old age?

Want to explain why out of 448 forward roster spots (14x32) only 52 are occupied by 33+ year olds? They have all this experience and are in the primes of their careers! Why would teams just let these guys go?!?

Thats not to mention you trying to pawn off the regression on playing on a bad PP. Smith had 10 points on the PP last season. He has 7 so far this season. He is on pace for 11 PP points this season. His PP production is identical. You also are insinutating its automatic that him being on a better team = more points. Ask Elias Lindholm how thats worked out. He is scoring less on the 1st place Canucks than he was on the struggling Flames.

 

[Canuck Luck]

It's disingenuous to say that Mikheyev is "29 to start next season" when he turns 30 literally a week into the season. Both of these guys are in their early 30s to start next year. Smith is a bit older than Mikheyev, but Mikheyev isn't young. Both of them are likely past their primes and will only get worse as they get older.

Mikheyev is going to be 30 and is still struggling with healing from a major knee injury, which is coming right from Canucks fans in here. Look at what a major knee injury did to Connor Brown, and Brown was younger than Mikheyev. Saying Smith is a major risk because he's 33 while Mikheyev struggling to bounce back from a major knee injury at age 30 isn't a problem is just dumb.

both are risks, but if one is more likely to find their form, i'd bet on the much younger player just hitting 30 thats coming off a major injury vs the 33 year old thats just regressing.

 

[Empoleon8771]

both are risks, but if one is more likely to find their form, i'd bet on the much younger player just hitting 30 thats coming off a major injury vs the 33 year old thats just regressing.

I don't understand how you think a 3 year difference is worth more than a major injury that a player is already struggling to rebound from.

But more importantly, I don't see how any of this negates the fact that Smith is a better player than Mikheyev that's also signed for fewer years and very likely has a better league-wide reputation than Mikheyev due to his playoff success.

 

[Canuck Luck]

I don't understand how you think a 3 year difference is worth more than a major injury that a player is already struggling to rebound from.

But more importantly, I don't see how any of this negates the fact that Smith is a better player than Mikheyev that's also signed for fewer years and very likely has a better league-wide reputation than Mikheyev due to his playoff success.

because a 3.5 year difference is the difference of a player nearing their expiry date vs a player just coming out of their prime? If a 3 year older player is playing at a similar level to the player 3 years younger, why would anyone want the 3 year older player?

Smith is a similar level player to Mikheyev today. One could argue better or worse so fpr arguement's sake I'll say similar.
Why would the Canucks want to trade a 2nd round pick to exchange 2 players that are at similar levels of play? The only benefit to the Canucks is to get out of the contract 1 year sooner. The cap in that year will be 10M+ higher than today. A player of Mikheyev's level by then will be overpaid by 1M so it definitely won't cost a 2nd to dump if they needed to.

No one is going to trade a 2nd + a 35 point player for a 40 point player just to save 1 year on the contract 2 years from now. Thats not even factoring in the age difference.

 

[Empoleon8771]

because a 3.5 year difference is the difference of a player nearing their expiry date vs a player just coming out of their prime? If a 3 year older player is playing at a similar level to the player 3 years younger, why would anyone want the 3 year older player?

Smith is a similar level player to Mikheyev today. One could argue better or worse so fpr arguement's sake I'll say similar.
Why would the Canucks want to trade a 2nd round pick to exchange 2 players that are at similar levels of play? The only benefit to the Canucks is to get out of the contract 1 year sooner. The cap in that year will be 10M+ higher than today. A player of Mikheyev's level by then will be overpaid by 1M so it definitely won't cost a 2nd to dump if they needed to.

Smith has outproduced Mikheyev in every season the two have been in the NHL. Anyone arguing that he's worse than Mikheyev is just making stuff up.

I don't care if the Canucks would do the deal in the OP or not. The Penguins aren't going to take an extra year for a worse player who's still struggling with a major knee injury only to swap a 2nd for a 4th and 7th.

 

[Canuck Luck]

Smith has outproduced Mikheyev in every season the two have been in the NHL. Anyone arguing that he's worse than Mikheyev is just making stuff up.

I don't care if the Canucks would do the deal in the OP or not. The Penguins aren't going to take an extra year for a worse player who's still struggling with a major knee injury only to swap a 2nd for a 4th and 7th.

Thats cool and all, but what does that have to do with today and moving forward? Show me where I said Mikheyev was a similar level player to Smith in the past?

Are the Canucks getting Smith of the past or the Smith of today and in the future? I can point out how Mikheyev was pacing 50 points playing with 1 working knee last year but no, i'm taking him for what he is today, just betting that out of the 2, if 1 did regain some or all of their form it would be Mikheyev.