You ask 10 AZ fans on OEL and you'll get 10 different takes on how likely he is to rebound.
We even had a thread on it, the poll was almost a bell curve with a slight edge toward unlikely:
Will OEL rebound?
I am bearish but don't think it's impossible. I think he'll play better and give more effort on a new team. I don't think his skill decline will turn around the other direction though it hopefully will stop.
I'm going to give the OEL roadmap as I see it, as brief as possible, as to how he got here.
1. First I want to bust a common HF narrative that OEL was never good defensively. This is flatly untrue. Dave f***ing Tippett trusted OEL on the shutdown pair in the playoffs as a 2nd year player. Ollie was a very good defender, up until 2015 or so.
2. Around that same time, Ollie started to breakout offensively. He was always a good puck mover and made great reads. But in combination with Yandle being traded OEL took on the brunt of the responsibility on offense and thrived. His shot also fully developed around this time and became a lethal weapon. I'd say Oliver was at his peak form for approximately 2 seasons.
3. Starting around 16-17 is when the trouble began. His effort level on defense dropped substantially but he was still an excellent offensive defensemen and could play all situations respectably. However as the season went on his effort level elsewhere started to drop. We later found out that this was likely due to his mother's illness. He was also playing with a thumb injury around this time.
4. In 2018 he played injured most of the season. This was visible but not something you'll see on a stat sheet. It was later revealed he had surgery in the subsequent off-season. This is when his lateral mobility started to really take a hit.
5. Note that you'll still see his production be pretty good here. But it's deceiving. With his mobility fading, he was still constantly re-aggravating the knee even after surgery. In the 18-19 season he would leave the ice and miss the rest of a game frequently.
6. Coyotes fans already knew, but fans around the league could really see the decline starting late that season. The big decline starts around Tocchet's second year as coach but tbh I think that's mostly coincidence. At some point in here, I don't think we know when, he had a wrist/hand injury of some sort that he also played through and it continued to take abuse. His lethal shot, the thing that could paper over his mistakes, was fading and eventually gone.
7. Between the knees, the effort levels, the hand, However much stock you put into the Tocchet stuff, Ollie's decline was not hard and fast it was slow and painful.
OEL needs to stabilize his game, re-learn to make reads at his current level of physical performance, and put in a consistent effort night to night. If he does this I believe he can become a guy who while is not that all situations #1 D people thought of in 2015 is a very capable 25 minute a night D you'd want as a vet on the left to your stud rookie RD and can come close to living up to his contract @ 88%.
If his physical decline does not stop, and I think that's ultimately the primary reason for his decline; there's no chance of a "rebound"
Ekman-Larsson hasn't missed a ton of time in his career and he doesn't play a very heavy game. I don't really see why he can't give at least four more good seasons
One thing that has significantly declined in OEL's play is his physicality. While he wasn't throwing huge hip checks he was usually in the fray and would mix it up. That has vanished over the last 4 years.
Further, while he hasn't missed a lot of time he played injured many months over the last 4 seasons. Particularly 2 years ago, and 4 years ago (wrist and knee).
OEL apparently had such a poor relationship with Tocchet that their exit interview was a terse, two minute affair of both acknowledging that one of them would have to leave.
Very good post overall, though I would keep in mind that OEL's decline really started before Tocchet was here. His precipitous fall off a cliff certainly happened under Tocchet but his injuries were also catching up to him.