Using Regular Season Shot Differentials To Predict Playoff Success (WHL)

[R S]

New post on my blog, also posted in it's entirety below:

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Back in December I did a piece that investigated regular season shot differentials predicting future playoff success in the Western Hockey League.

In summary, it found that during the 2013-14 playoffs, the team who had the better regular season shot differential won far more playoff series’ than they lost. In fact, the “leader” of the two teams in that category won 12 of the 15 best of 7 matchups during the 2013-14 WHL playoffs. I felt that was a pretty substantial amount, especially considering someone like a sports bettor would be more than happy to predict individual games at a 60 or 65 per cent rate.

But at the end of the day, that was only one season worth of data. Many would say that it’s hardly a big enough sample size to really draw any major conclusions from. But, since then we’ve seen some additional data come forward thanks to Josh Weissbock at CHLStats.com.

He recently updated his website to include data going back two more seasons, allowing me to dig further into this idea with a larger sample size to draw from.

As stated in my last piece, the results are once again interesting even if they’re not overly surprising given the concept of what we’re talking about.

The Estimated Fenwick data measures shot differentials, so one would expect that the better the team, the better they are at either getting or suppressing shots. That’s not a ground-breaking concept. Teams that generate more chances than they surrender tend to win more often.

As mentioned, the data from the 2013-14 WHL playoffs found that the team with the better regular season shot differential number won 12 of the 15 series throughout the entire postseason. That included going 5-3 in round one before going perfect (7-0) through the subsequent two rounds and WHL Championship series. Breaking it down into games, the team with the higher regular season Fenwick number won 49 of the 74 games. That’s 66%.

Going back to the year previous, 2012-13, the overall series winning percentage was identical in the WHL playoffs. The team with the better regular season Fenwick had 12 series wins compared to only three losses:

Once again breaking that information down game by game, the numbers weren’t quite as impressive as 2013-14. With that being said, the team with the higher regular season Fenwick number still won 62% of all WHL postseason games in 2013, going 48-29 overall.

Going back further, to 2011-12, we finally see the series winning percentage dip just a hair compared to 2012-13 and 2013-14. The only real difference was that Edmonton beat Portland in the WHL Championship Series, despite Portland having a slightly higher regular season Fenwick:

But breaking the 2011-12 playoffs down game-by-game, we see the highest individual game winning percentage out of the past three postseasons. The team with the higher Fenwick number in the regular season won a whopping 68% of all playoff games in 2012, winning 51 times and losing only 23 times.

Now we look at the three years at hand combined. This is what you get when you combine the playoff series winners as a whole:

Combining the three playoff years into game-by-game data, we get a record of 148-77 when simply choosing the team who had the higher regular season Fenwick. That’s nearly 66%.

So to recap, over the past three WHL postseasons:

- The team with the higher regular season Fenwick has won 77.7% of all series.
- The team with the higher regular season Fenwick has won 65.7% of all individual games.

Now that we have three full playoff seasons combined it provides a much safer sample size to draw basic conclusions from. Teams who get more shots than they give up tend to win more in the playoffs. That makes total sense when you are not just dealing with one-off situations, but extrapolate it over a full series. The team who has a recent history of generating more chances will give themselves a better chance to win games, and eventually a full series.

Keep that in mind when making your predictions for the fast-approaching 2014-15 WHL playoffs.

Thanks for reading.


(The Estimated Fenwick data used is courtesy of Josh Weissbock and can be found here)

Click to read more...

 

[Doctor No]

I love this - nice work!

What does this portend for the 2015 playoffs, if you don't mind? As a self-loathing Thunderbirds fan, I always fear the worst.

 

[R S]

I love this - nice work!

What does this portend for the 2015 playoffs, if you don't mind? As a self-loathing Thunderbirds fan, I always fear the worst.

That's the next step.

Once the regular season is over I will have a follow up piece that includes predictions based on the numbers and then predictions based on what I think will happen.

Thanks for reading.

 

[hatterson]

How does this compare to other metrics like higher seed, regular season record, goal differential, etc.?

I'd be curious to see how well the results compare to other things.

 

[charlie1]

How does this compare to other metrics like higher seed, regular season record, goal differential, etc.?

I'd be curious to see how well the results compare to other things.

I'm very interested in the bolded. (Nice work BTW, R S.)

 

[R S]

New blog post going up tomorrow and it includes goal differential and higher seed along with Fenwick for my 2015 predictions.

Still haven't taken the time to go back and look at goal differential or seed for the past 3 years, though.

 

[phillipsj89]

New blog post going up tomorrow and it includes goal differential and higher seed along with Fenwick for my 2015 predictions.

Still haven't taken the time to go back and look at goal differential or seed for the past 3 years, though.

Don't want to post it on here (don't wanna hijack your thread) but I did a blog post about WHL 1st round results by seeds. I'll PM you the link.

 

[West]

I happen to have the below. Hope it helps. 08/09 Season is off but rest should be pretty good, never noticed before now....

Copy and paste below into a csv file and you should be good to go.

SEASON,TEAM,GP,PTS,GF,GA,SF,SA
20012002,Calgary Hitmen,72,71,271,281,1994,1908
20012002,Lethbridge Hurricanes,72,72,266,247,1875,1734
20012002,Kootenay Ice,72,83,276,223,2190,1550
20012002,Spokane Chiefs,72,77,223,206,2124,1912
20012002,Portland Winter Hawks,72,77,269,243,2235,1928
20012002,Seattle Thunderbirds,72,48,235,313,1881,2235
20012002,Prince Albert Raiders,72,54,234,324,1801,2324
20012002,Saskatoon Blades,72,59,216,257,1988,2072
20012002,Regina Pats,72,84,252,192,1943,1647
20012002,Brandon Wheat Kings,72,90,261,210,2157,1719
20012002,Swift Current Broncos,72,90,274,218,2118,1900
20012002,Moose Jaw Warriors,72,66,226,239,1858,2137
20012002,Vancouver Giants,72,32,198,365,1681,2439
20012002,Kamloops Blazers,72,81,263,230,1969,2165
20012002,Kelowna Rockets,72,72,257,232,2102,1778
20012002,Prince George Cougars,72,77,244,215,2167,2138
20012002,Medicine Hat Tigers,72,64,277,316,1844,2300
20012002,Red Deer Rebels,72,99,264,184,2023,1736
20012002,Tri-City Americans,72,72,260,271,1962,2290
20022003,Brandon Wheat Kings,72,95,258,187,1948,1689
20022003,Regina Pats,72,64,171,217,1698,2100
20022003,Lethbridge Hurricanes,72,58,236,303,1809,2206
20022003,Calgary Hitmen,72,61,240,260,2046,1909
20022003,Moose Jaw Warriors,72,83,266,208,2042,1991
20022003,Swift Current Broncos,72,83,240,215,2012,1741
20022003,Prince George Cougars,72,55,257,317,2110,2525
20022003,Kootenay Ice,72,78,234,202,1880,1775
20022003,Red Deer Rebels,72,103,271,160,2071,1697
20022003,Medicine Hat Tigers,72,60,278,314,1909,2197
20022003,Saskatoon Blades,72,85,234,205,1954,1801
20022003,Prince Albert Raiders,72,57,185,258,1930,1932
20022003,Kamloops Blazers,72,83,261,222,1987,2064
20022003,Seattle Thunderbirds,72,91,280,224,2215,1926
20022003,Kelowna Rockets,72,108,311,164,2238,1505
20022003,Portland Winter Hawks,72,46,192,243,1886,1963
20022003,Tri-City Americans,72,43,240,335,1876,2160
20022003,Spokane Chiefs,72,58,216,261,1912,1888
20022003,Vancouver Giants,72,57,217,292,1717,2171
20032004,Brandon Wheat Kings,73,67,233,226,1879,1901
20032004,Moose Jaw Warriors,72,90,209,172,1976,2025
20032004,Calgary Hitmen,72,76,220,187,1879,1783
20032004,Red Deer Rebels,72,80,167,169,1752,1823
20032004,Kamloops Blazers,72,76,192,182,1883,1930
20032004,Everett Silvertips,72,78,157,153,1640,1821
20032004,Lethbridge Hurricanes,72,64,196,203,1724,1942
20032004,Medicine Hat Tigers,72,89,277,216,2030,1699
20032004,Prince George Cougars,72,67,214,236,1834,1977
20032004,Kootenay Ice,72,71,183,200,1852,1749
20032004,Regina Pats,72,55,155,232,1748,2163
20032004,Saskatoon Blades,72,25,140,279,1812,2305
20032004,Swift Current Broncos,72,79,234,209,1972,1833
20032004,Prince Albert Raiders,73,82,217,189,2148,1742
20032004,Vancouver Giants,72,75,215,196,1817,1956
20032004,Seattle Thunderbirds,72,56,192,198,2035,1667
20032004,Tri-City Americans,72,72,205,197,1884,1976
20032004,Spokane Chiefs,72,68,200,215,1822,2044
20032004,Portland Winter Hawks,72,74,199,206,1903,1866
20032004,Kelowna Rockets,72,98,185,125,1995,1383
20042005,Brandon Wheat Kings,72,95,255,199,1933,1867
20042005,Regina Pats,72,28,154,285,1662,2132
20042005,Kamloops Blazers,73,61,165,212,1664,2037
20042005,Portland Winter Hawks,73,76,205,199,2081,1870
20042005,Kootenay Ice,73,103,222,138,1734,1717
20042005,Tri-City Americans,73,62,178,196,1946,1986
20042005,Lethbridge Hurricanes,72,90,222,162,1850,1715
20042005,Medicine Hat Tigers,73,96,238,145,2122,1696
20042005,Moose Jaw Warriors,73,38,182,285,1838,2223
20042005,Saskatoon Blades,74,80,238,221,1881,2153
20042005,Prince Albert Raiders,73,69,187,192,1841,1718
20042005,Swift Current Broncos,72,50,135,218,1666,2155
20042005,Red Deer Rebels,73,80,209,200,2035,1685
20042005,Calgary Hitmen,73,79,204,186,1847,1823
20042005,Kelowna Rockets,73,102,217,143,2166,1596
20042005,Everett Silvertips,73,76,168,150,1567,1858
20042005,Spokane Chiefs,73,56,193,234,1997,2000
20042005,Prince George Cougars,73,55,159,227,1785,1885
20042005,Seattle Thunderbirds,72,88,204,144,2001,1591
20042005,Vancouver Giants,73,72,212,211,1841,1750
20052006,Brandon Wheat Kings,72,59,213,255,1798,2102
20052006,Regina Pats,72,79,231,230,1944,1927
20052006,Kelowna Rockets,72,92,240,185,2019,1762
20052006,Vancouver Giants,72,98,250,150,2185,1414
20052006,Kootenay Ice,72,91,231,174,1932,1919
20052006,Tri-City Americans,72,58,183,218,1736,1965
20052006,Lethbridge Hurricanes,72,58,193,244,1733,1998
20052006,Medicine Hat Tigers,72,96,251,163,2315,1632
20052006,Prince Albert Raiders,72,54,161,218,1743,1972
20052006,Moose Jaw Warriors,72,87,274,202,2209,1973
20052006,Red Deer Rebels,72,53,162,215,1808,1970
20052006,Calgary Hitmen,72,91,188,151,1978,1595
20052006,Saskatoon Blades,72,78,224,213,1920,2225
20052006,Swift Current Broncos,72,52,171,234,1660,2170
20052006,Prince George Cougars,72,69,190,191,1933,1996
20052006,Seattle Thunderbirds,72,70,181,206,1910,2004
20052006,Kamloops Blazers,72,67,175,193,1683,1847
20052006,Everett Silvertips,72,76,196,155,1726,1714
20052006,Portland Winter Hawks,72,63,198,253,1826,1913
20052006,Spokane Chiefs,72,49,189,251,2020,1980
20062007,Chilliwack Bruins,72,48,165,258,1624,1910
20062007,Kelowna Rockets,72,46,154,241,1522,2068
20062007,Brandon Wheat Kings,72,86,254,206,1958,1948
20062007,Moose Jaw Warriors,72,52,213,271,1872,2084
20062007,Calgary Hitmen,72,79,248,201,1973,1777
20062007,Red Deer Rebels,72,73,204,209,1834,1938
20062007,Kamloops Blazers,72,78,241,220,1815,1465
20062007,Portland Winter Hawks,72,34,144,314,1648,2106
20062007,Kootenay Ice,72,99,265,186,2079,1882
20062007,Tri-City Americans,72,91,236,189,1986,1945
20062007,Lethbridge Hurricanes,72,65,250,262,1951,1800
20062007,Medicine Hat Tigers,72,100,260,175,2035,1682
20062007,Prince George Cougars,72,70,220,212,1797,1794
20062007,Seattle Thunderbirds,72,85,209,175,1982,1736
20062007,Saskatoon Blades,72,51,169,229,1514,1988
20062007,Prince Albert Raiders,72,53,199,263,1728,1983
20062007,Swift Current Broncos,72,63,194,239,1833,2120
20062007,Regina Pats,72,74,230,214,2061,1821
20062007,Everett Silvertips,72,100,229,140,1710,1707
20062007,Spokane Chiefs,72,71,227,213,1873,1852
20062007,Vancouver Giants,72,94,242,136,2193,1382
20072008,Edmonton Oil Kings,72,47,158,234,1684,2211
20072008,Kootenay Ice,72,82,224,211,2053,2071
20072008,Brandon Wheat Kings,72,83,249,206,2053,1713
20072008,Saskatoon Blades,72,61,179,223,1878,2024
20072008,Calgary Hitmen,72,95,256,162,2178,1550
20072008,Red Deer Rebels,72,34,140,252,1644,2074
20072008,Lethbridge Hurricanes,72,89,240,171,1890,1572
20072008,Medicine Hat Tigers,72,85,231,196,1985,1726
20072008,Moose Jaw Warriors,72,77,224,206,2009,1995
20072008,Swift Current Broncos,72,84,240,199,1971,1915
20072008,Prince Albert Raiders,72,52,194,246,1712,2183
20072008,Regina Pats,72,83,210,204,1843,1850
20072008,Kamloops Blazers,72,52,193,251,1828,1942
20072008,Chilliwack Bruins,72,57,202,236,1784,1963
20072008,Prince George Cougars,72,41,170,301,1647,2320
20072008,Spokane Chiefs,72,101,246,154,2175,1742
20072008,Portland Winter Hawks,72,21,130,317,1748,2674
20072008,Vancouver Giants,72,102,248,149,2403,1409
20072008,Everett Silvertips,72,77,201,195,1924,2007
20072008,Tri-City Americans,72,100,256,174,2110,1864
20072008,Seattle Thunderbirds,72,84,239,177,2077,1926
20072008,Kelowna Rockets,72,77,243,209,1815,1680
20082009,Kootenay Ice,79,76,228,232,2411,1893
20082009,Spokane Chiefs,76,95,253,148,2247,2189
20082009,Brandon Wheat Kings,76,96,303,235,2159,1917
20082009,Regina Pats,76,59,237,274,2045,2161
20082009,Calgary Hitmen,78,123,346,171,2244,1805
20082009,Red Deer Rebels,77,60,185,258,2043,2065
20082009,Edmonton Oil Kings,78,67,205,268,2013,2053
20082009,Medicine Hat Tigers,77,76,260,252,1922,2029
20082009,Lethbridge Hurricanes,76,75,233,235,1841,2035
20082009,Moose Jaw Warriors,77,44,214,367,1872,2239
20082009,Swift Current Broncos,76,92,273,227,1997,2082
20082009,Saskatoon Blades,76,100,289,208,2167,2006
20082009,Prince Albert Raiders,77,62,244,281,2027,2438
20082009,Kamloops Blazers,78,70,257,300,1913,2373
20082009,Everett Silvertips,77,55,208,272,2008,2379
20082009,Prince George Cougars,76,56,198,306,2022,2341
20082009,Seattle Thunderbirds,76,72,228,249,2138,2011
20082009,Chilliwack Bruins,76,39,156,274,1810,2359
20082009,Portland Winter Hawks,76,41,177,297,1934,2368
20082009,Vancouver Giants,77,126,342,155,2598,1603
20082009,Tri-City Americans,74,101,268,188,2218,1847
20082009,Kelowna Rockets,77,101,283,190,2226,1662
20092010,Kelowna Rockets,72,67,217,221,2133,1913
20092010,Vancouver Giants,72,81,263,208,2249,1800
20092010,Kootenay Ice,72,83,247,213,1971,1946
20092010,Lethbridge Hurricanes,72,40,175,272,1765,2152
20092010,Prince Albert Raiders,72,64,228,247,2310,2234
20092010,Brandon Wheat Kings,72,101,319,201,2176,1858
20092010,Saskatoon Blades,72,90,252,223,2133,1917
20092010,Regina Pats,72,59,241,274,2095,2079
20092010,Red Deer Rebels,72,76,195,217,2021,1953
20092010,Calgary Hitmen,72,102,265,175,2079,1758
20092010,Swift Current Broncos,72,71,224,228,2053,2068
20092010,Moose Jaw Warriors,72,72,242,240,2031,2099
20092010,Chilliwack Bruins,72,67,213,234,1932,1953
20092010,Kamloops Blazers,72,65,233,279,1838,2366
20092010,Prince George Cougars,72,25,170,324,1808,2287
20092010,Spokane Chiefs,72,91,239,177,2146,1975
20092010,Seattle Thunderbirds,72,43,172,250,1870,2338
20092010,Everett Silvertips,72,88,226,173,2030,2095
20092010,Edmonton Oil Kings,72,40,168,276,1882,2197
20092010,Medicine Hat Tigers,72,81,270,227,2006,1944
20092010,Portland Winterhawks,72,85,262,240,2305,2214
20092010,Tri-City Americans,72,93,269,191,2282,1969
20102011,Vancouver Giants,72,71,233,247,1976,1852
20102011,Chilliwack Bruins,72,68,225,251,1786,2396
20102011,Prince Albert Raiders,71,63,243,277,2315,2282
20102011,Saskatoon Blades,71,108,303,209,2205,1969
20102011,Kootenay Ice,72,92,268,214,2159,1784
20102011,Calgary Hitmen,71,40,166,264,1766,1964
20102011,Swift Current Broncos,71,51,176,257,1901,2149
20102011,Moose Jaw Warriors,71,78,238,232,2074,2064
20102011,Medicine Hat Tigers,72,91,260,192,1896,2057
20102011,Lethbridge Hurricanes,71,47,195,284,1846,2190
20102011,Red Deer Rebels,71,95,261,154,2135,1805
20102011,Edmonton Oil Kings,71,65,246,243,2200,1864
20102011,Kamloops Blazers,71,55,210,280,2168,2085
20102011,Seattle Thunderbirds,71,52,185,255,2018,2596
20102011,Portland Winterhawks,72,101,301,224,2433,2309
20102011,Everett Silvertips,71,57,167,211,1939,2224
20102011,Kelowna Rockets,72,82,235,200,1880,2105
20102011,Prince George Cougars,71,64,252,258,2053,2010
20102011,Tri-City Americans,72,86,282,221,2230,2002
20102011,Spokane Chiefs,72,94,306,191,2523,1693
20102011,Regina Pats,71,40,203,304,1953,2265
20102011,Brandon Wheat Kings,71,70,276,263,2189,1980
20112012,Moose Jaw Warriors,72,88,254,211,2199,1954
20112012,Brandon Wheat Kings,72,80,271,253,2143,2256
20112012,Regina Pats,72,74,228,212,1913,1910
20112012,Swift Current Broncos,72,57,213,266,1961,2222
20112012,Saskatoon Blades,72,80,266,248,2129,2235
20112012,Prince Albert Raiders,72,41,215,309,2144,2251
20112012,Red Deer Rebels,72,65,200,226,2139,2058
20112012,Kootenay Ice,72,73,219,197,1963,1912
20112012,Portland Winterhawks,72,95,324,228,2642,1976
20112012,Everett Silvertips,72,50,183,260,1790,2412
20112012,Vancouver Giants,72,78,249,230,2062,1812
20112012,Victoria Royals,72,49,230,321,1823,2079
20112012,Calgary Hitmen,72,87,271,220,2109,1737
20112012,Medicine Hat Tigers,72,85,252,205,2007,2153
20112012,Lethbridge Hurricanes,72,55,221,291,2059,2335
20112012,Kamloops Blazers,72,96,289,208,2155,1855
20112012,Prince George Cougars,72,48,164,255,1759,2159
20112012,Kelowna Rockets,72,59,208,236,1934,2131
20112012,Seattle Thunderbirds,72,45,167,291,1904,2494
20112012,Tri-City Americans,72,100,279,188,2121,1941
20112012,Spokane Chiefs,72,77,254,221,2193,1638
20112012,Edmonton Oil Kings,72,102,308,189,2246,1875

 

[R S]

Blog post from today re: my predictions for round one, plus "predictions" based on seed, shot differential and goal differential from the regular season.

(just as a side note, I have gone through the past 3 postseason's and done the same work as above, except for on seed and goal differential. The results surprised me. Haven't posted it anywhere yet, might wait until this year's playoffs are over)

Anyway, the new piece is below:

============

Over my time following the WHL, I’ve come to understand that attempting to make predictions is essentially a fool’s game.

Even if you manage to be correct with your predictions, you still manage to piss off a group of fans or team employees for betting against their team. People are passionate about their team (or career) and I can understand that completely.

Despite what I have just stated, I have decided to once again post a prediction piece ahead of the 2015 WHL Playoffs. I guess I am a fool. But, along with providing my own predictions and reasoning for round one results, I have also taken a more advanced approach.

I will also include predictions for the first round of the postseason based on which team in the matchup had the better estimated regular season shot differential (Fenwick), the better overall goal differential for the regular season and simply, which team is the higher seed.

The Fenwick number was grabbed from the fantastic CHLstats.com and the goal differential was calculated manually using the WHL’s standings page. Seed is rather straight forward, simply choosing the higher-seeded team to advance to the next round. My personal predictions are based on my own knowledge of each team’s roster, playing style, strengths, weaknesses, injuries, etc.

It is my intent to do this process for all four rounds of the WHL postseason in 2015, and in the end, see which of the prediction method ends up with the best results.

In case you missed it, I did a piece last week that outlined how well regular season estimated Fenwick (shot differentials) can predict WHL playoff success. You can read it here as it turned out that over the past three WHL postseason’s, the team with the better regular season shot differential won 77.7% of all series. We’ll see how this year’s numbers stack up to that once it’s all said and done.

Before we begin, below is a chart that shows a couple of things for all 22 WHL teams (even non-playoff teams). It is sorted by each team’s Estimated Fenwick (shot differential) for the regular season. It also shows each team’s goal differential for the regular season.

Now, let’s get started with the Eastern Conference predictions…

Eastern Conference Notes:

- First off, it looks pretty boring, I know. Each prediction ends up with the same result. I have gone ahead and added “in how many games” in brackets behind my prediction to give this some added detail.

- As for my reasoning, here’s what I see in the east.

- I think Brandon is just too skilled both up front and on defence. I like Edmonton’s blueline and I think Jarry is obviously better than Papirny in net, but the Oil Kings offence worries me. The Oil Kings just don’t have the firepower up front to go toe-to-toe with the Wheat Kings. I see this series as a bit of a “passing of the torch” in the sense that the Wheat Kings look to be on the verge of a dominating 3-4 year run while the Oil Kings are no longer the team they once were. For Edmonton to win Jarry will need to absolutely slam the door shut, which he is definitely capable of doing, but I’m just not sure I see it happening often enough to win four games against the best regular season team in the WHL.

- I think Swift Current will continue to get some strong performances from key guys (Jake DeBrusk leads that pack) but the way they stumbled down the stretch worries me. There advanced numbers aren’t great, either. They created less than 50% of the shot attempts in their games and also have the worst goal differential of any playoff team in the Eastern Conference. Regina’s injury to Sam Steel is a big one but I still think they find a way to get the job done. The Broncos should win a couple of games, though. They seem to match up fairly well against Regina, including taking 5 of the 8 regular-season meetings.

- No team has been better in the last month than the Calgary Hitmen and I see that carrying over to the playoffs. They’re just such a hard team to match up against. They have size, speed and skill on all four forward lines and major talent and depth on defence. The fact that they have two decent goalies, rather than just one, also helps immensely. I do think Kootenay have the pure thoroughbreds up front to win a game or two in the series and overall it won’t be an easy one for Calgary, despite my 5-game prediction.

- This last series in the east should be very interesting. Both the Rebels and Tigers have had their stumbles in the past couple of months, but both seemed to get things back on track in the final weeks of the regular season. I like the Tigers top talent up front, two-way play on defence and veteran presence in goal. Red Deer also has veteran skill up front, and a pretty solid blueline, but I’m not quite as sold on their play between the pipes. Ultimately I see the Langhamer vs. Toth battle favouring the Tigers enough to get them the win, but it should be a very fun series.

Now to the Western Conference…

Western Conference Notes:

- Just like with the east, there is not a ton of flavour in the western predictions. The only exception is the fact that Seattle had a (marginally) better estimated shot differential in the regular season than Portland did, earning them a predicted victory. Aside from that, it’s pretty standard. All the favourites are as such for a reason. We’ll see how it plays out, but here is a bit of reasoning on my picks…

- Kelowna hasn’t been super convincing over the past month but I don’t see Tri-City putting up a huge fight in round one. The Rockets top-end skill is elite and they should score a pile of goals. If Tri-City was going to do any kind of damage, it would have to be in goal where Comrie is superior to Whistle. It wouldn’t be a massive shocker to see the Americans winning one game, maybe game three of the series. We’ll see.

- Victoria and Prince George should be interesting. The Cougars had to scratch and claw to make sure they got into the playoffs while the Royals have been pretty hit and miss over the past few weeks. The fact that the Cougars have been fighting for their life gives them…well…life in this series, but in the end I think the Royals are just too skilled and deep both up front and on the blueline. I see Prince George winning a game or two for sure. They’re a gritty group who have been playing playoff style hockey for several weeks already now. Their ability to keep pucks out of their own net does concern me, though. The goal differential disparity in the series speaks for itself.

- Spokane is not a team I would want to meet in the playoffs. They’re a disciplined and hard-working team with a good system. They might not be the most skilled team but they keep games close and can play good defence. With that being said, Everett is also a team who can really lock things down defensively, plus they have some speed and skill up front. This should be a close series and I could see some really physical 2-1 type games. Ultimately I see the Silvertips squeezing by, but I can see Spokane taking a chunk out of them in the process.

- Old rivals meet up as Portland take on Seattle. This series should be fun to watch. I spend a lot of time watching each of these clubs and they make for a good matchup. They’re both skilled and fast. Portland has more depth up front and the edge in experience, but I can see the Thunderbirds squeezing out a couple of wins here. I won’t be surprised if this is one of the highest scoring series’ in the first round either (along with PG-VIC). I’ll also be interested to see how draft-eligibles like Barzal, Bittner and Gropp can elevate in the “second season”.


Well, there we go. Hopefully nobody takes my predictions too seriously. It’s all in good fun and every team in the playoffs have earned the right to be there after an entertaining regular season.

Thanks for reading.

 

[charlie1]

Nice post. Do you have a link to your blog?

I guess things will get more interesting when teams meet in the later rounds and the Fenwick/Seed/GD don't all agree. Interesting that in the one case where Fenwick differed from Seed/GD you went with Seed/GD.

Will you be posting a year-end recap of which is the better predictor (Fenwick vs Seed vs GD)?

Also I'd be very interested in an analogous historical analysis for the last three years.

 

[West]

Assuming your right about the first round what do you predict in 2nd round? and the rest of the way for that matter?

 

[R S]

Nice post. Do you have a link to your blog?

I guess things will get more interesting when teams meet in the later rounds and the Fenwick/Seed/GD don't all agree. Interesting that in the one case where Fenwick differed from Seed/GD you went with Seed/GD.

Will you be posting a year-end recap of which is the better predictor (Fenwick vs Seed vs GD)?

Also I'd be very interested in an analogous historical analysis for the last three years.

Here you go: http://whl-from-above.blogspot.ca/

Yes, I plan on doing a year-end recap post after the playoffs that shows which method of the three is the most successful over the past four seasons, while also comparing how my predictions did this year when compared with the other methods.

Assuming your right about the first round what do you predict in 2nd round? and the rest of the way for that matter?

I'm doing it round by round so you'll have to wait until round one is over.

I will say that as far as the finals go, I would probably lean on seeing Kelowna and Calgary as the final matchup.

 

[West]

I'm doing it round by round so you'll have to wait until round one is over.

I will say that as far as the finals go, I would probably lean on seeing Kelowna and Calgary as the final matchup.

Quick question are you using Fenwick or Fenwick Close on these predictions. Charts imply you were able to get Fenwick Close data but reading blog makes me think you used total SF and SA.

Also I've been wondering for a while if there is a sweet spot between Shots and Goals so something like (SF/SA) + (GF/GA)*variable = winnner

Any opinion on that?

 

[R S]

Quick question are you using Fenwick or Fenwick Close on these predictions. Charts imply you were able to get Fenwick Close data but reading blog makes me think you used total SF and SA.

Also I've been wondering for a while if there is a sweet spot between Shots and Goals so something like (SF/SA) + (GF/GA)*variable = winnner

Any opinion on that?

Used Fenwick Close via CHLstats.com, as stated.

And that would be an interesting idea to look in to.

 

[R S]

New blog post up which reviews the results of round one's predictions while also looking ahead to round two.

http://whl-from-above.blogspot.ca/2015/04/round-two-playoff-predictions-for-2014.html

This is how things looked in round one:

 

[Doctor No]

Dammit, Thunderbirds - you had one job.

 

[R S]

New post up following the completion of the second round..

http://whl-from-above.blogspot.ca/2015/04/round-three-playoff-predictions-for.html

How things stand so far using the different methods of prediction:

 

[R S]

My predictions have gone 14-0 so far in the playoffs with goal differential doing the same. Seed one game behind while Fenwick brings up the rear.

Closing out the year with my WHL Final Series predictions:

http://whl-from-above.blogspot.ca/2015/05/whl-final-series-predictions.html

 

[R S]

Turns out regular season goal differential has been the best predictor when analyzing the last 4 years of WHL playoff hockey.

Full piece:

http://whl-from-above.blogspot.ca/2015/05/best-practices-in-predicting-whl.html