News Article: Unlikely American Hero: Hellebuyck

[EpicGingy]

Nice try, but Jack Campbell does not compare in any way with Hellebuyck. He had a .892 save % over several years in the OHL and a multiyear .917 in the AHL.

Hellebuyck set an all time save % record in the NCAA (just under .950) and backstopped an atrociously poor Ice Dogs team in the AHL with a .921 save % in his rookie year.

Slightly OT, but the affiliate was named the IceCaps, not the Ice Dogs.

 

[Jeti]

Weird article.

First off, Pavelec didn't silence his critics in the playoffs. He was ok, not great. He certainly did not steal any games for us. Why would they deal Hutch? The market for goalies is saturated at the moment, and we would be lucky to get a 2nd round draft pick for him. Then the author suggests dealing Hellebuyck, when he has not even turned 22, and could be the franchise goalie.

Personally, I would be patient and wait. I think this situation will play itself out in 2015-16.

Better be more patient than that. My bet is Pavs is the starter out of training camp (they're not unseating their playoff starter based on one training camp). Hutch will be the backup. Hellebuyck won't see the NHL next year unless there's an injury or he posts multiple shutouts in the pre-season (even then, Pavs or Hutch would have to falter hard).

If there's one thing we can say about the Jets organization, it's that they've been painfully patient - Kane was rumoured to be on the outs for years before he was moved; Pavelec has been a league-worst starter for years and nothing has been done. They won't anoint Hellebuyck as the saviour and hand him the starting position based on his play in other leagues. They seem to be content on having Pavs run out his awful contract. Hellebuyck is still pretty young for an NHL goalie...

Hellebuyck will be 22 this month. Being rushed is putting him in net after the lockout ended. He is as ready as he will ever be.

I don't disagree that it's not rushing him at all but it's not really true that he's "ready as he will ever be". Most NHL goalies hit their peak around 27 and don't establish themselves as starters until a few years before that. Hellebuyck is only now entering the normal age range for goalies breaking into the league.

Mrazek (another highly touted goalie prospect) is 23 and finally got more than a handful of games in the latter half of this season (and only because Howard and Gustavsson were both injured at one point). Quick was a backup at 22/23; starter at 23/24. Rinne was 25. Lundvist was 23/24. Less heralded goalies break in even later: Bishop was 27 most of his first season as a starter; Howard was 25.

I absolutely hope he gets a chance to play as many games as he can handle in the NHL next season. I'm not arguing against it. I just don't think the Jets are in any rush to give him the job.

 

[garret9]

Peak is earlier than 27. Typically 24-26.

Also fun fact...

All positions in the NHL have the same peak:
Forward pts/gp
Forward pts/min
Forward Corsi
Forward dCorsi
Forward usage adjuste Corsi
Forward TOI per shift
Repeat all values for defense
Goaltending save percentage relative to league average

All 24-26 range.

 

[Jets4Life]

Hellebuyck won't see the NHL next year unless there's an injury or he posts multiple shutouts in the pre-season (even then, Pavs or Hutch would have to falter hard).

I'm certain that Helle will play a few games next year. The Jets will probably want to bring up Comrie to play in the AHL. My bet is Hellebuyck will start either a few games, or possibly more if Hutch or Pavelec cannot get the job done.

 

[Jeti]

Peak is earlier than 27. Typically 24-26.

Also fun fact...

All positions in the NHL have the same peak:
Forward pts/gp
Forward pts/min
Forward Corsi
Forward dCorsi
Forward usage adjuste Corsi
Forward TOI per shift
Repeat all values for defense
Goaltending save percentage relative to league average

All 24-26 range.

Garret, I wouldn't normally argue stats with you but I'd like to see a graph. I based my range off of the current top 10 goalies IMO. I think only Varlamov is outside the 27-32 range.

 

[CorgisPer60]

Garret, I wouldn't normally argue stats with you but I'd like to see a graph. I based my range off of the current top 10 goalies IMO. I think only Varlamov is outside the 27-32 range.

I think the idea is that, while they all reach their peak around the same age, they have very different drop off points. Forwards degrade the fastest, while goalies plateau for a long while before they begin to drop.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

All this talk that Hellebuyck hasn't proven anything yet and he's still liable to be a bust just tires me to no end.

Anyone can be a bust but you don't set all time NCAA records held by Dryden and then put the entire Ice Dogs team on your shoulders all year and still post one of the top save % in the AHL if you're not good.

He'll be a dang good, possibly elite NHL goalie, I'm 100% confident.

And all this 100% confidence level tires me no end. Nothing is 100% and very little is 99%. Not to go off the deep end about the meaning of existence but just keeping it to hockey, remember Alexander Daigle? Or, if you're a little older you might remember Wickenheiser. Not Hayley. Her uncle Doug. Absolute can't miss, both of them. Missed, both of them.

I'm very, very, very confident in Helle. That means about 80-85% he turns out to be an above average starter in the NHL. Maybe about 40% he turns out to be significantly above average (top 10) and maybe 10% he turns out to be top 5. That's just about the highest confidence level that it is possible to have at this point.

 

[jetsforever]

Nice praise, this guy looks good

I was scared for a second when I read the trade suggestion

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

All I know is he'll be in the city of Winnipeg all of next season

 

[CaptainChef]

And all this 100% confidence level tires me no end. Nothing is 100% and very little is 99%. Not to go off the deep end about the meaning of existence but just keeping it to hockey, remember Alexander Daigle? Or, if you're a little older you might remember Wickenheiser. Not Hayley. Her uncle Doug. Absolute can't miss, both of them. Missed, both of them.

I'm very, very, very confident in Helle. That means about 80-85% he turns out to be an above average starter in the NHL. Maybe about 40% he turns out to be significantly above average (top 10) and maybe 10% he turns out to be top 5. That's just about the highest confidence level that it is possible to have at this point.

Whatever Mort, you know what I mean -- would 99.9% certain be better

 

[Board Bard]

100% certain means you'd bet everything you own on it.

 

[Puck Hawerchuck]

The way I see Helly so big, calm, with very quick legs and effortlessly moving side-to-side in the crease, dare I say it, he reminds me of Carey Price. Montreal finally made room for him by trading Halak and that turned out pretty well didn't it?

I say we should trade Pavs and have Hutch start with Helly backing him up. Best man wins the starter's job from that point on.

We have Comrie also coming up and Jamie Phillips had a real good year of development. We have plenty of safety nets (pun intended) in place if we trade Pavelec after he had a hot regular season finish. We can't keep them all and give them an NHL job to aspire to anyway if we remain TOO patient. The real Pavs showed up in the playoffs IMO.

Laughable that Hockey Futures states that we don't have any high end goalie prospects. What a joke.

[mod]

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Whatever Mort, you know what I mean -- would 99.9% certain be better

No, I really don't know what you mean. There is nothing there to justify that kind of confidence. If you said you were very excited by Helle's potential and optimistic for his future with the Jets I would understand what you mean. I'm very optimistic myself. There are a lot of ways for promising prospects to fall of the rails and I hear that goalies are particularly hard to predict. He is not a sure thing and even if he was that wouldn't mean he was ready yet.

I hope he plays so well at the WC that Chevy decides it is time to include Pav in some kind of package deal and we get to put the Pav era behind us. But I'm not counting on it.

Edit: Don't mean to single you out on this issue. I think a lot of posters here are just getting a little carried away.

 

[PhilJets]

If I am the GM or Coach, i will throw Hellybuck into the fire come next season.
But I am not

Let him swim, i bet he will swim very fast

 

[Jets4Life]

And all this 100% confidence level tires me no end. Nothing is 100% and very little is 99%. Not to go off the deep end about the meaning of existence but just keeping it to hockey, remember Alexander Daigle? .

Daigle was a bust by the age of 22. Hellebuyck keeps getting better. It's possible that Hellebuyck buckles at an NHL level, but the odds, and his play in multiple leagues suggest otherwise.

 

[winnipegger]

His play in the world championships has been impressive so far. He just has to force managements hand into having him stay up with the club, like Trouba did. If the kid is ready he is ready and you want him on your team. If he's not there's a great option of having him play in the city with the AHL club. Not worried.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Daigle was a bust by the age of 22. Hellebuyck keeps getting better. It's possible that Hellebuyck buckles at an NHL level, but the odds, and his play in multiple leagues suggest otherwise.

I agree. Never said anything else. My point is the difference between probability and certainty. High probability does not = certainty.

 

[CaptainChef]

I agree. Never said anything else. My point is the difference between probability and certainty. High probability does not = certainty.

As if I meant certainty - I guess we need to put those little signs out there even when its obvious. I do understand what 100% and absolute certainty is & need no lectures on the fact that nothing is 100% certain.

I'm confident that he's going to be a really good perhaps elite goalie in the NHL & I have been confident of his abilities for a long time. If management wants to play it slow and wait until Pavs is gone & he's 24-25 to get his crack at a starters role here, well its their funeral -- patience to that extreme in this case is unwarranted and counterproductive.

The time to get him into the NHL as a backup at the very least is now -- not once his most productive years are behind him.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

As if I meant certainty - I guess we need to put those little signs out there even when its obvious. I do understand what 100% and absolute certainty is & need no lectures on the fact that nothing is 100% certain.

I'm confident that he's going to be a really good perhaps elite goalie in the NHL & I have been confident of his abilities for a long time. If management wants to play it slow and wait until Pavs is gone & he's 24-25 to get his crack at a starters role here, well its their funeral -- patience to that extreme in this case is unwarranted and counterproductive.

The time to get him into the NHL as a backup at the very least is now -- not once his most productive years are behind him.

Hey, I reacted to what you said. I could have guessed that you didn't mean actual certainty but the implication was still way too close to certain to be realistic. He isn't 99.9% sure either.

I'm inclined to think that Helle needs another year in the A but I hope management is keeping an open mind on the subject. I didn't like how he faded down the stretch. Was it physical fatigue? Mental fatigue from carrying a non-competitive team? Something else?

He's had a rest and is back to outstanding so far at the WC so that is encouraging.

 

[garret9]

Garret, I wouldn't normally argue stats with you but I'd like to see a graph. I based my range off of the current top 10 goalies IMO. I think only Varlamov is outside the 27-32 range.

Basing off age of top 10 goalies isn't a good method, as many of those top 10 could potentially have been better before, if given the chance.

As someone else noted, elites end up being what they are by having long and extended plateau's:

 

[Guardian17]

Who is our goalie scout? He deserves a big raise.

Isn't ex-NHL player Rick St.Croix the one who discovered Hellboy?

Yep, he was at a game to scout another goalie and instead, recommended Hellbuyck.

St. Croix was just fired by the Leafs.

 

[KingBogo]

Hey, I reacted to what you said. I could have guessed that you didn't mean actual certainty but the implication was still way too close to certain to be realistic. He isn't 99.9% sure either.

I'm inclined to think that Helle needs another year in the A but I hope management is keeping an open mind on the subject. I didn't like how he faded down the stretch. Was it physical fatigue? Mental fatigue from carrying a non-competitive team? Something else?

He's had a rest and is back to outstanding so far at the WC so that is encouraging.

He carried a heavy load, and played more games that he has in the past. It will serve him well in the long run. With Hutch also struggling post ASB, it is likely we see Pavs as the starter with Hutch as backup with Helly carrying the load again in the A. But you never know when someone will get their chance. I hope Helly at least gets a few NHL games under his belt this season. I think once he gets his chance there will be no looking back.

 

[CaptainChef]

He carried a heavy load, and played more games that he has in the past. It will serve him well in the long run. With Hutch also struggling post ASB, it is likely we see Pavs as the starter with Hutch as backup with Helly carrying the load again in the A. But you never know when someone will get their chance. I hope Helly at least gets a few NHL games under his belt this season. I think once he gets his chance there will be no looking back.

If Helle can impress enough folks (including our scouts) playing for the USA at these championships I think it will give him a major leg up coming into TC next year.

In fact, it could be just the impetus they need to do something with either Pavs (we pray) or Hutch.

 

[KingBogo]

If Helle can impress enough folks (including our scouts) playing for the USA at these championships I think it will give him a major leg up coming into TC next year.

In fact, it could be just the impetus they need to do something with either Pavs (we pray) or Hutch.

I hope you are right. I think Helly is our future in the pipes and would love to see him sooner rather than later.

 

[wpgfishfan]

Sees Pav get a shutout and says oh ya I got one in me too

This guy could be the real deal