GDT: UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev/ONE on Prime Video 3: Lineker vs. Andrade

[MMC]

Date: October 22, 2022
Venue: Etihad Arena
City: Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Time: 2 pm ET/11 am PT
Viewing: ESPNews, PPV

MAIN CARD (PPV)

Lightweight Championship bout: Charles Oliveira vs. Islam Makhachev
Bantamweight Championship bout: Aljamain Sterling (c) vs. T.J. Dillashaw
Bantamweight bout: Petr Yan vs. Sean O'Malley
Lightweight bout: Beneil Dariush vs. Mateusz Gamrot
Women's Flyweight bout: Kaitlyn Chookagian vs. Manon Fiorot

PRELIMINARY CARD (ESPNews, TSN 5)

Welterweight bout: Belal Muhammad vs. Sean Brady
Middleweight bout: Makhmud Muradov vs. Caio Borralho
Light Heavyweight bout: Nikita Krylov vs. Volkan Oezdemir
Welterweight bout: Abubakar Nurmagomedov vs. Gadzhi Omargadzhiev

PRELIMINARY CARD (ESPN+)

Middleweight bout: Armen Petrosyan vs. A.J. Dobson
Flyweight bout: Muhammad Mokaev vs. Malcom Gordon
Women's Bantamweight bout: Karol Rosa vs. Lina Lansberg​

Click to read more...

 

[MMC]

 

[MMC]

 

[member 51464]

I am rooting for Oliveira bigtime, but I worry this is one where he gets caught.

 

[pistolpete11]

Charlie Olives - Islam : Just a fascinating stylistic matchup. I think we're going to have an idea on how this fight goes within the first 2min or so. Both guys start fast, so we'll see if Oliveira can land some shots or Islam gets the take down and we see how the ground game will go. I think Oliveira can win by KO, probably early, but I'm a believer in the Islam hype even though he hasn't fought the toughest competition to this point...but I've doubted Oliveira every step of the way, so....

Aljo - TJ : I'm not the biggest TJ fan. I don't really care about the PED stuff or the Team Alpha Male stuff. He just seems like a prick, but it would be pretty incredible for him to win the belt again. Aljo is still a tough matchup, but I think there's at least a path for TJ to beat him on the feet. Don't know that you could have said the same if Yan was the champ. TJ also has great TDD, which I think he will need. James Krause said in his breakdown he's trained with both and that Aljo is miles better than TJ on the ground. I want to pick TJ because I think he's a more well rounded fighter, but I just can't bring myself to pick a 36 year old to win the belt at this weight class.

Yan - O'Malley : O'Malley didn't look out of place against Munhoz, but Yan is a massive jump up. Luke Thomas has mentioned a few times how Yan is a slow starter and sometimes is willing to give the 1st round away. I suppose that could happen and then O'Malley steals another round, but I don't see it. I think Yan takes it convincingly.

Dariush - Gamrot : Kind of a weird fight because it's 2 guys who should probably be a win away from getting a title shot, at least a Dariush, but I can't see the UFC giving it to either coming off this win. Neither are a big enough name. They will probably go with the Poirier/Chandler winner or even Conor before they do that.

Chookagian - Fiorot : Weird fight to kick off such a big PPV. Chookagian just won't go away. She's 5-1 since losing to Valentina and this would be 5 wins in a row. I know people don't like her, but she's the only deserving one in the division...unless of course they do the Nunes-Valentina fight like they should. I honestly don't know if I have ever seen Fiorot fight. I can't recall 1 single thing about her if I have.

Belal - Brady : I feel like they are trying to showcase Brady here, but Belal is not an easy fight. Great TDD (91%) and good striking.

Krylov - Volkan : Gettin' buried on the prelims.

 

[CDJ]

I too have doubted Olives every step of the way and it will once again come back to bite me but my parlay is

Islam
Mokhaev
Mustafaev
Oezdemir

At like +412

Also @pistolpete11 you’ll probably like what you see when you watch Fiorot. VERY good striker. Her vs Chook is going to be sneaky fascinating to watch

 

[pistolpete11]

Also @pistolpete11 you’ll probably like what you see when you watch Fiorot. VERY good striker. Her vs Chook is going to be sneaky fascinating to watch

Still a weird fight to open such a big PPV

 

[CDJ]

Still a weird fight to open such a big PPV

Yeah tbh I think that should have been the featured prelim. Get more eyeballs on Fiorot.

 

[m9]

Still a weird fight to open such a big PPV

Yeah tbh I think that should have been the featured prelim. Get more eyeballs on Fiorot.

Chookagian can turn any fight into a boring one though. I would have had it as the prelim co-main and bumped up Oezdemir/Krylov into the top six fights.

If I'm being picky, I probably have Gamrot/Dariush as the prelim main because Brady/Belal is a massive fight but could be a bit boring. Oezdemir/Krylov is a good fight to kick off a PPV, should be fun.

.. and obviously none of this really matters, but I do think it's a weird card format they've done here.

 

[m9]

I don't have any real thoughts on the main event. Could go either way and I can see how people make the case for either side. Just going to sit back and see what happens.

I really like Sterling over Dillashaw. Dillashaw/Sandhagen was an even fight and I think the top of 135 has proven they're a step above Sandhagen right now. Maybe Dillashaw was just a bit rusty, but either way I'll go with some MMAmath here and take the guy who has been more active and winning fights.

No reason to pick O'Malley to beat Yan. O'Malley is insanely overhyped for what he's actually proven in the cage - he's earned this fast track based on popularity but not what he's actually done. That said, he is an extremely skilled striker so there's like a 5% chance he just flattens Yan in the first round but that's a bad bet.

Don't have a good read on Dariush/Gamrot - another one I'm just going to let play out.

Chookagian/Fiorot is great match-making to see where Fiorot is at. Like @pistolpete11 said it's hard to really remember her because she's been buried on some very forgettable ESPN cards.

Sean Brady has been so underhyped compared to Chimaev/Rakhmonov at 170lbs and now is getting a super tough fight here with Belal. The weird thing is I don't really feel like we have an answer yet for what Brady's full game is but by Saturday we will have all the cards revealed.

I've really liked what I've seen from Borralho so far. Tough fight, but another good one here.

Krylov/Oezdemir should be fun though it's one of those fights I hate where neither guy really seems to be headed anywhere so who cares.

Mokaev is one of the best prospects in the world, interested in seeing him step up vs Gordon.

The rest of the card is filled with pretty even fights between good fighters.

Could be card of the year on paper, though I'd probably still give the slight edge to UFC 276.

 

[The Devil In I]

Stipe got added to the P4P rankings after not fighting for a year and a half. Probably a good bet that they're going to announce Stipe-Jones during this ppv.

Really looking forward to this card.

 

[pistolpete11]

I really like Sterling over Dillashaw. Dillashaw/Sandhagen was an even fight and I think the top of 135 has proven they're a step above Sandhagen right now. Maybe Dillashaw was just a bit rusty, but either way I'll go with some MMAmath here and take the guy who has been more active and winning fights.

I think Sterling wins, but I think this is an example of 'styles make fights'. Sandhagen is a better striker than TJ, but TJ is a much better grappler, particularly defensively. Would Sandhagen have given Aljo problems if he didn't get taken down and submitted so quickly? Who knows?

I think Sterling wins because he was able to handle Yan who I think is probably both a better striker and grappler than TJ, but a) it was close and b) I thought Yan fought very reckless in that fight. Seemed to me he thought he could go in there and just pound Sterling given how the first fight was heading.

TJ could be a poor man's Yan with better fight IQ and come away with it. Wouldn't bet on it, but it's certainly a possibility IMO.

 

[m9]

I think Sterling wins, but I think this is an example of 'styles make fights'. Sandhagen is a better striker than TJ, but TJ is a much better grappler, particularly defensively. Would Sandhagen have given Aljo problems if he didn't get taken down and submitted so quickly? Who knows?

I think Sterling wins because he was able to handle Yan who I think is probably both a better striker and grappler than TJ, but a) it was close and b) I thought Yan fought very reckless in that fight. Seemed to me he thought he could go in there and just pound Sterling given how the first fight was heading.

TJ could be a poor man's Yan with better fight IQ and come away with it. Wouldn't bet on it, but it's certainly a possibility IMO.

My questions are more about Dillashaw than anything. He's 36 now and has one win in like 4 years and it was a split decision that most people thought he lost. Also during that time he got busted for EPO and had a major knee injury/surgery. What version of him are we getting? The Sandhagen version wasn't great and I don't think that style works against Sterling.

But ultimately I think we are on the same page in terms of who wins. There's certainly a scenario where this fight stays in space and Dillashaw is able to use a speed advantage to win.

I'll go out on a limb here and say not only does Sterling win, but he gets his first win by TKO in 8+ years over Dillashaw. I think it's like +1100, but hey why not.

 

[pistolpete11]

My questions are more about Dillashaw than anything. He's 36 now and has one win in like 4 years and it was a split decision that most people thought he lost. Also during that time he got busted for EPO and had a major knee injury/surgery. What version of him are we getting? The Sandhagen version wasn't great and I don't think that style works against Sterling.

But ultimately I think we are on the same page in terms of who wins. There's certainly a scenario where this fight stays in space and Dillashaw is able to use a speed advantage to win.

I'll go out on a limb here and say not only does Sterling win, but he gets his first win by TKO in 8+ years over Dillashaw. I think it's like +1100, but hey why not.

I don't think the Sandhagen version really matters, though. TJ had his struggles with Sandhagen, for sure, but that's because TJ is mostly a striker going up against another really good striker. Sterling is the opposite. If TJ keeps it on the feet, he probably wins. Easier said than done, of course. The surgery since the Sandhagen fight is a concern, though, you're right.

The age at this weight class is the biggest red flag to me. You just don't see it a lot. Although, I thought the same thing with Fig.

 

[MMC]

 

[16Skippy]

I'll be picking Olives in this one. I get the hype for Islam. But he hasn't beaten anyone as good as the people Charles has beaten, let alone as good as Charles. I know MMA math doesn't always work like that but I don't see myself picking against Charles until I have proof someone else is better at this weight class. And Charles is just a killer everywhere. But in his last loss he got ground and pounded by Felder of all people so who knows lol.

I agree with what you guys said about Sterling-TJ for the most part. But remember TJ's base is actually wrestling. I probably won't bet on him either but it's plausible he can still stuff Sterling's take downs.

I'll be shocked if Yan doesn't finish O'Mally, even if it's just three rounds.

No idea who to pick between Dariush-Gamrot, or what's in store for the winner but I am looking forward to it.

I have a feeling they are trying to feed Chookagian to Fiorot. If Fiorot wins they are both building a prospect in a shallow division and demoting someone who is super boring.

 

[MMC]

 

[pistolpete11]

Made plans for Saturday afternoon a while back without realizing that it was the day of UFC 280 or that UFC 280 had an afternoon start

 

[I am not exposed]

Picking Oliveira to win. Although I hope he loses because he irks me for some reason.

I'm going for Dillashaw. I think he keeps the fight standing for the most part and wins a close decision.

Going for the upset and picking O'Malley. Yan is a notoriously slow starter and I think in three rounds O'Malley does enough. If it was 5 rounds, I would definitely go for Yan.

Going for Dariush. Should be a close one, but I think he sees it through.

Brady will beat Belal Muhammad by decision. Poor Belal.

 

[I am not exposed]

It also feels like ages since we had a hyped up card I've been looking forward to. Months tbh.

 

[CDJ]

Islam, Aljo, Yan, Gamrot, Brady

So basically I went chalk. My underdogs are Oezdemir and Dobson

I could see Muhammad being able to keep it standing and out-pointing Brady, that’s the one I’m least confident about.

Dariush-Gamrot is very interesting to me but i think Gamrot is going to put a pace on him. Benny has great bjj so he’ll always be a threat in grappling situations but I like Gamrot a little more in those spots. Maybe Benny wins first round, Gamrot takes the next 2. Something like that.

 

[McGuires Corndog]

There’s nothing more in the world I want to see than Charles Oliveira grab a hold of Islam and choke him out right in front of Khabib and then point at him and talk some shit to him.

Khabib has talked way too much shit about Oliveira, I want to see his boy get smashed.

 

[Chaels Arms]

More than any other fighter on the UFC roster Sean O'Malley makes me feel old. Knowing that there's an entire generation of young people who love everything about him emphasizes the generation gap between me and them. Can't deny he fights fun though.

 

[I am not exposed]

Sterling is so disliked that more people like T.J. Dillashaw who was caught cheating and isn't exactly known as a fan favourite.

 

[CDJ]

I can’t shake this feeling that Islam is going to be much stronger than him and will be able to control him on the ground

My heart wants Olives, my brain says Islam