GDT: UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane

[pistolpete11]

He’s by far the smoothest athlete at heavyweight, I wouldn’t go as far to say Francis isn’t on Gane’s level but Jones might be. I think Francis ends up knocking out both


Stipe vs Gane would be interesting I think

I agree Stipe-Gane would be a good one. Stipe is the only one who could come close to matching his speed and might be able to test his ground game. For as great as he has looked, he's only fought strikers (Lewis, Volkov, JDS, Rozenstruik), at least at the elite level.

 

[m9]

I wonder if Jon Jones could go back in time a bit he would just stay at LHW and take his chances with the Jan/Glover/Adesanya group of guys that would have been challenging him there. Between Miocic/Gane/Ngannou that's just a different class of guys right now and all 3 present difficult challenges. I really don't like Jones vs someone like Gane unless he has really committed to go back to wrestling.

I'm just so impressed with Gane. A year ago pretty much nobody knew who he was as he had only fought on random overseas cards. In a weird way it's almost too fast as I kind of like when guys kind of work their way up and you get to see them fight different guys. This entire run of 4 ranked wins to get a belt has been over the course of 8 months. Just crazy.

 

[m9]

He’s by far the smoothest athlete at heavyweight, I wouldn’t go as far to say Francis isn’t on Gane’s level but Jones might be. I think Francis ends up knocking out both


Stipe vs Gane would be interesting I think

It's going to be really interesting to see what version of Jones we get. He looked to have slowed down a ton in his last few fights already and all that extra weight won't help. I expect he will still move pretty well for the HW division but it might look closer to someone like Miocic than anywhere close to the footwork/movement clinic we see from Gane every fight.

 

[chicagoskycam]

Yeah, it's a good question and one I don't have a strong opinion on. But I will say, I think those guys and gals still provide value to the UFC even if it's not directly related to attracting eyeballs. I've made this comparison before, but nobody is tuning into the NHL to see the average 4th line left winger. They are watching for the McDavid's, Crosby's, Ovechkin's, etc. But that 4th line winger makes $750,000 per year because they are still providing some support to the NHL and helping to some degree making it what it is. I don't think the number for your average prelim fighter is $750,000 per year by any means, but I don't really have a number in mind either.


Yeah which is why a union is so unlikely. Everybody is just looking out for #1, but it's hard to blame them. They've literally fought to get to where they are. If they have an opportunity to make some money, they are going to take it. Look at the whole Tony-Poirier thing where they both told the UFC to go pound sand.....until Poirier got offered Conor. Or Jones wants too much money, so they do Lewis-Gane for an interim belt. There is almost always another option the UFC can use to get things moving again. At some point, the fighter will need to make some money and come off their asking price. It's how the UFC has got to this point without having a union.

I'd also like to see the win bonus go away. I really find it hard to believe fighters need more of an incentive than the guy across from them is trying to hurt them. Not to mention a win advances their career. It's just kind of sickening when someone puts it all out there, maybe loses a razor thin decision, and gets their pay cut in half because of it. Or worse, gets screwed by the judges. Even if they end up getting knocked out, they get salt rubbed in their wound. Just pay them both higher show money and get rid of the win bonus.

NHL and other major leagues are so different. There is an entry draft for new players and those players have an extensive previous body of work for teams to commit to a guy on. Revenue is clearly stated and a split has been agreed upon. In the UFC, a guy has some regional fights, then a spot on TUF, and then maybe a contract. The fighter is taking the contract as a bet on themselves. The problem is new fighters may go for a few years without getting a ranking. O'Malley has a great record and definitely is a significant draw but his career has been delayed by injuries. So he's complaining about pay and doing anything possible to pump up his IG, which in some cases makes him look like an ass. He's created this entire character to attract more attention.

UFC is putting on a card nearly every damn week giving a lot of fighters a chance to make a name, not only in the UFC but for other promotions. I'd like to see the UFC/ESPN go to a sub-model including PPV's. This would stabilize the revenue a bit more and maybe they could figure out a more = split. I have no idea what that monthly number is. I'd pay $20 with the current content and PPV's included, right now it's five. Maybe $30 is a good number. I don't know many people last week that were even aware of the fight. Most people don't care unless it's Conor or a few other big names.

 

[pistolpete11]

NHL and other major leagues are so different. There is an entry draft for new players and those players have an extensive previous body of work for teams to commit to a guy on. Revenue is clearly stated and a split has been agreed upon. In the UFC, a guy has some regional fights, then a spot on TUF, and then maybe a contract. The fighter is taking the contract as a bet on themselves. The problem is new fighters may go for a few years without getting a ranking. O'Malley has a great record and definitely is a significant draw but his career has been delayed by injuries. So he's complaining about pay and doing anything possible to pump up his IG, which in some cases makes him look like an ass. He's created this entire character to attract more attention.

Of course they are different. My only point with that is you can still provide value to the organization even if you aren't necessarily the one attracting eyeballs.

UFC is putting on a card nearly every damn week giving a lot of fighters a chance to make a name, not only in the UFC but for other promotions. I'd like to see the UFC/ESPN go to a sub-model including PPV's. This would stabilize the revenue a bit more and maybe they could figure out a more = split. I have no idea what that monthly number is. I'd pay $20 with the current content and PPV's included, right now it's five. Maybe $30 is a good number. I don't know many people last week that were even aware of the fight. Most people don't care unless it's Conor or a few other big names.

I would love a subscription model for many reasons. I'm sure the UFC has their own reasons for not doing that, but even if they did, it wouldn't help the revenue split. The issue with the revenue split isn't about how much revenue the UFC is generating or the volatility of that revenue. They have purposely structured fighter pay as low as possible while still keeping the majority of the best fighters in the world happy enough to keep fighting. They won't change that unless there is enough pressure from an outside force (i.e. a union, legislation, or competition). All of those are varying degrees of long shots IMO, so it will be business as usual and we'll have to deal with the occasional hold out and constant complaining about fighter pay.

 

[chicagoskycam]

Of course they are different. My only point with that is you can still provide value to the organization even if you aren't necessarily the one attracting eyeballs.


I would love a subscription model for many reasons. I'm sure the UFC has their own reasons for not doing that, but even if they did, it wouldn't help the revenue split. The issue with the revenue split isn't about how much revenue the UFC is generating or the volatility of that revenue. They have purposely structured fighter pay as low as possible while still keeping the majority of the best fighters in the world happy enough to keep fighting. They won't change that unless there is enough pressure from an outside force (i.e. a union, legislation, or competition). All of those are varying degrees of long shots IMO, so it will be business as usual and we'll have to deal with the occasional hold out and constant complaining about fighter pay.

Yeah well, it's tough, the UFC is technically an international org vs. most of our sports leagues here. They also have a direct competitor or competitors in the market and have not been granted an anti-trust in the U.S. What is Bellator paying it's entry-level fighters compared to the UFC? They do an event like once a month, right? The UFC is doing almost 50 a year? Very similar to boxing, only the top draws do very well.

 

[m9]

As as aside from the fighter pay topic, as a fan who watches every card having some sort of subscription service would obviously be great. My only concern would be that they would probably have a minimum plan (6 months or annual) otherwise people will just buy for the big cards. Then are we looking at the UFC working within that new timeline and only putting out a big card every 6 months to keep people buying in? I don't know, there's something to making them earn their money for each card.

 

[pistolpete11]

As as aside from the fighter pay topic, as a fan who watches every card having some sort of subscription service would obviously be great. My only concern would be that they would probably have a minimum plan (6 months or annual) otherwise people will just buy for the big cards. Then are we looking at the UFC working within that new timeline and only putting out a big card every 6 months to keep people buying in? I don't know, there's something to making them earn their money for each card.

It's a fair point.

It would definitely depend on how they structure it. I'd think they could still offer individual PPV's. Just set the price of the subscription at a point where it entices more casual fans to get the sub instead of buying individual PPVs throughout the year.

I think it would still be in their best interest to put on good shows, though. First, there is/will hopefully be a live gate to worry about. But more importantly, if people are paying hundreds of dollars for a subscription and only getting 1 PPV they really care about, it's going to drive them away from buying the subscription. I'd also guess more active viewers = more ad revenue.

 

[Moncherry]

Not nearly as huge as if McGregor and Nurmagomedov had fought a second time.

Heck, Tate facing Rhonda Rousey again, would be much bigger.

Usman vs Covington. I could go on.

One must understand their value if they hope to gain leverage, vs having perception as to what they believe their value is.

One is based on fact, that can easily be demonstrated. The other is based on emotions such as pride, which are useless.

Like Costa demanding a huge raise, coming off of a knockout loss where he was taught a master class. Honestly. He wouldn't get a penny more. String a few devastating wins, and give yourself leverage.

There literally is little pressure on putting together Ngannou vs Jones.



Again. You choose to take a job knowing their underhanded reputation, and the company is at fault for doing what it does best?

Thats like someone refusing to lock their doors at night and getting robbed multiple times, refusing to blame anyone but the thief.

Not only does a bunch of theoretical rematches being potentially bigger fights have nothing to do with this, but I stopped reading this crap after you said Usman vs Covington would be much bigger.

 

[3074326]

I wonder if Jon Jones could go back in time a bit he would just stay at LHW and take his chances with the Jan/Glover/Adesanya group of guys that would have been challenging him there. Between Miocic/Gane/Ngannou that's just a different class of guys right now and all 3 present difficult challenges. I really don't like Jones vs someone like Gane unless he has really committed to go back to wrestling.

I'm just so impressed with Gane. A year ago pretty much nobody knew who he was as he had only fought on random overseas cards. In a weird way it's almost too fast as I kind of like when guys kind of work their way up and you get to see them fight different guys. This entire run of 4 ranked wins to get a belt has been over the course of 8 months. Just crazy.

Jon Jones' coach said something about this.

Source is Uncle Chael

I'd like to see Jon stay at LHW. Chael sold me on it.

 

[Egg]

Not only does a bunch of theoretical rematches being potentially bigger fights have nothing to do with this, but I stopped reading this crap after you said Usman vs Covington would be much bigger.

Jones has little leverage. Point made.

 

[m9]

Jones has little leverage. Point made.

How big some of the other fights could be really has little bearing on Jon Jones though as they have a PPV every month and they certainly have spots to fill in terms of headline fights. Jon Jones could have just fought Derrick Lewis and I would guess we are looking at the PPV buy rate doubling for that.

My thought is that over the last year or so, Jon Jones has realized that he's had the best career in MMA and hasn't made nearly enough money for it. The UFC gets a bunch of blame for that, but so does Jon Jones for all the shit he's pulled that has cost him a ton of money.

Now he's left in a spot where he's trying to make up for money he feels he left on the table in the past and has priced himself out a bit of the current market. He also has seemingly picked a bad time to be "needed" at HW with the emergence of Gane & Ngannou and Stipe Miocic lurking in the background.

 

[Egg]

Now he's left in a spot where he's trying to make up for money he feels he left on the table

Most of it is self inflicted. He has an asterisk next to his name for several of his fights. His legacy is tainted like his PED test results.

He had the world in his palm, and let his own chance slip past his fingers.

Honestly. The audacity of the guy telling Dana how much he is worth.

He won't be missed in retiring.

Only reason I want him fighting Ngannou, is the chance of him doing it unconscious.

But with that said, I don't see him losing to the guy as is a superior fighter.

 

[pistolpete11]

How big some of the other fights could be really has little bearing on Jon Jones though as they have a PPV every month and they certainly have spots to fill in terms of headline fights. Jon Jones could have just fought Derrick Lewis and I would guess we are looking at the PPV buy rate doubling for that.

My thought is that over the last year or so, Jon Jones has realized that he's had the best career in MMA and hasn't made nearly enough money for it. The UFC gets a bunch of blame for that, but so does Jon Jones for all the shit he's pulled that has cost him a ton of money.

Now he's left in a spot where he's trying to make up for money he feels he left on the table in the past and has priced himself out a bit of the current market. He also has seemingly picked a bad time to be "needed" at HW with the emergence of Gane & Ngannou and Stipe Miocic lurking in the background.

We'll have to see how Jones looks at HW (if he ever fights at HW) to know whether this time off to transform his body was worth it. I'm starting to think in retrospect it might have been better to stay at LHW and continue to tease a move a HW until the UFC was desperate for a HW challenger (kind of like when DC moved up). Maybe he was scared of a Reyes rematch, but I'd still like his chances against Jan and Glover. Not to mention, if he's holding up LHW by demanding more money, it gives him a little more negotiation power. Now, he's kind of painted himself into a corner because the UFC can just keep things moving without him. What leverage does he really have?

We'll see. Unless there is another Gane out there who will shoot to the top in the next 6-12 months, there's still not a ton at HW. Francis-Gane will probably happen around the new year. Then the only option is Stipe and I'm a bigger Stipe fan than most, but I really think he should need a win to get another title shot, especially if Francis wins. But the UFC might throw him back into a title fight just to buy more time with Jones.

 

[m9]

We'll have to see how Jones looks at HW (if he ever fights at HW) to know whether this time off to transform his body was worth it. I'm starting to think in retrospect it might have been better to stay at LHW and continue to tease a move a HW until the UFC was desperate for a HW challenger (kind of like when DC moved up). Maybe he was scared of a Reyes rematch, but I'd still like his chances against Jan and Glover. Not to mention, if he's holding up LHW by demanding more money, it gives him a little more negotiation power. Now, he's kind of painted himself into a corner because the UFC can just keep things moving without him. What leverage does he really have?

We'll see. Unless there is another Gane out there who will shoot to the top in the next 6-12 months, there's still not a ton at HW. Francis-Gane will probably happen around the new year. Then the only option is Stipe and I'm a bigger Stipe fan than most, but I really think he should need a win to get another title shot, especially if Francis wins. But the UFC might throw him back into a title fight just to buy more time with Jones.

For all this talk about how fun Ngannou/Jon Jones would be.. I think the fight I would be most interested in would be Jones vs Jiří Procházka at 205.

 

[pistolpete11]

For all this talk about how fun Ngannou/Jon Jones would be.. I think the fight I would be most interested in would be Jones vs Jiří Procházka at 205.

I'd still rather see Jones vs Francis or Stipe, but Jones-Jiri would be fun. I think Jiri is a little too wild and someone with Jones fight IQ and tools would be able to exploit that, especially if he used his wrestling.