Alberta_OReilly_Fan
Bruin fan since 1975
the TSN guys are putting out reports today that the cap wont be at 83 as everyone has assumed since December... we are now hearing numbers like 81.5 mill or possibly a little higher. offical number will come sometime this week I think but maybe dom or someone else can weigh in with the exact time if they know
personally... when these early numbers get released ive been skeptical in the past. I know I catch crap for it, but its really a moving donkey. last year the NHL did the same thing and threw out all sorts of numbers early... only to miss the mark
why do they do this? you have to remember the cap number is a reflection of the health of the league. there are still many teams trying to suck in investors every year. many nhl teams are not profitable on a year to year basis. the only real profit many owners will ever get is buying a franchise and seeing it appreciate in value before resale. think of it like a pyramid scheme. if there are no new investors, then someone is going to be left holding the bag.
what complicates things is theres a union that is entitled to 50% of hrr. so the owners cant simply cook the books. the union is entitled to audit. the union has its own problem. some union members have contracts and want the money they were promised. other union members still need contracts. because the pie is capped at 50%, you can end up promsing the various union members way more than 50%.... you might promise them 100 million... 200 million... or even 700-800 million dollars more than the 50%.
this is because most teams spend to the ceiling which is much higher than the reality of where it should be... the players are able to just blindly authorize an escalator clause that will take the real projections of revenues and hope for the best that the eventual number is much higher. why do they do this? the cap is already being overspent 100s and 100s of millions of dollars. without the escalator, there wont be room to get new contracts for new players... so the system much be fed
at the end of the day... what is really happening? you got a lot of players on 6-7 million dollar contracts that are getting clawed back now reportedly over 1 mill a year. joe thornton famously spoke on this a couple years ago with how much money he personally was losing. overall, the union keeps a tight lid on it because it amounts to one union member fighting another. its important for unions to stay together. theres nothing the union can do about this now because its one of their members against another but expect it to become a real hot button once the next cba rolls around. theres been a lot of anger under the surface if you pay attention.
meanwhile what is happening with all the teams and their second term rfa? this year is a blowup of the problem. when the cap was being projected at 83 mill, myself and others said some teams might be ok. I said we might be ok here in boston at 83 mill.
we wont be ok at 81.5
Toronto was never going to be ok... Winnipeg was never going to be ok... Winnipeg today traded trouba for a flawed 4-5 dman and a late first round pick. some people call it a good problem to have. Winnipeg never won a thing and are already breaking their team apart. now I hear they will move ehlers for one of those dmen in Carolina to try to fill the hole. trading pennies on the dollar maybe? we shall see
Toronto media is a bit out there... they think they will make some great trades for marleau/Zaitsev... we shall see... we shall see... but at the very least we see proof they are being forced to trade away all their vetern depth because of cap management. their kids are seeing their salaries double in the last 2-3 years compared to what the norm was before McDavid/draisailt. this extra 10 mill a year that Matthews/marner are going to end up with would have let Toronto keep their team together... but not now.
some people say let the players get what they are worth... these same people dont realize that the goverments give massive amounts of money to each team to help it stay competitive. its the taxpayers who are building these new arenas. we are giving many other subsidies and other moneys to the teams too.
the money might be there... but billion or more dollars has been given to the league straight from the tax payers... and 50% is going to the players slaries.
ironically the players benefit 50% of the revunues generated by these tax handouts... but dont participate in the building of any arenas. maybe there should be a tax on the players salaries to help finance the arenas that are ultimately generating all the money?
anyhow... its quite the house of cards. a lot of voodoo math. a bunch of changing owners getting in for a short time... losing their shirts... and then bailing out with a resale.
I love the game... I only watch nhl branded product... so I hope for this league to be healthy for years to come. maybe they can keep the balls juggling? ive seen 2 lockout/labour stoppages in recent years... 1 cost us a whole season. im going to predict this next one will be just as bad. sorry. other people will tell you everything is ok. they made a lot of other predictons that dont come true too
I questioned the 83 number when it came out... but smarter people then me told me to shut up. I wanted to believe 83 so after resisting it for a few weeks I just used it. its happier to go along with what people are telling you.
now heres another example maybe im right quite often when I talk about this stuff. I spend a hell of a lot of time studying it, so im not too surprised.
we will see... number gets released soon... and then we can chew down and have a hot discussion what the team can/should do.
that extra 1.5 mill is going to be HUGE
will it cost us a high pick when suddenly we are FORCED to move backes? will it cost us Heinen when we cant afford his arbitration number?
I dont see it costing us McAvoy or carlo… but will I be wrong about that?
certainly seems to slam the door on keeping Johansson... I never gave that any credibility at all... but again will I be wrong?
hell... if I am wrong then by all means people come after me when the numbers are known... tell me I was an idiot. im not afraid to toss out my predictions a year or two ahead of time... but if im wrong then im a big boy. tell me after the fact I was wrong.
seems to me, most of what is going on today is stuff I said would be happening and I was saying it along time ago
personally... when these early numbers get released ive been skeptical in the past. I know I catch crap for it, but its really a moving donkey. last year the NHL did the same thing and threw out all sorts of numbers early... only to miss the mark
why do they do this? you have to remember the cap number is a reflection of the health of the league. there are still many teams trying to suck in investors every year. many nhl teams are not profitable on a year to year basis. the only real profit many owners will ever get is buying a franchise and seeing it appreciate in value before resale. think of it like a pyramid scheme. if there are no new investors, then someone is going to be left holding the bag.
what complicates things is theres a union that is entitled to 50% of hrr. so the owners cant simply cook the books. the union is entitled to audit. the union has its own problem. some union members have contracts and want the money they were promised. other union members still need contracts. because the pie is capped at 50%, you can end up promsing the various union members way more than 50%.... you might promise them 100 million... 200 million... or even 700-800 million dollars more than the 50%.
this is because most teams spend to the ceiling which is much higher than the reality of where it should be... the players are able to just blindly authorize an escalator clause that will take the real projections of revenues and hope for the best that the eventual number is much higher. why do they do this? the cap is already being overspent 100s and 100s of millions of dollars. without the escalator, there wont be room to get new contracts for new players... so the system much be fed
at the end of the day... what is really happening? you got a lot of players on 6-7 million dollar contracts that are getting clawed back now reportedly over 1 mill a year. joe thornton famously spoke on this a couple years ago with how much money he personally was losing. overall, the union keeps a tight lid on it because it amounts to one union member fighting another. its important for unions to stay together. theres nothing the union can do about this now because its one of their members against another but expect it to become a real hot button once the next cba rolls around. theres been a lot of anger under the surface if you pay attention.
meanwhile what is happening with all the teams and their second term rfa? this year is a blowup of the problem. when the cap was being projected at 83 mill, myself and others said some teams might be ok. I said we might be ok here in boston at 83 mill.
we wont be ok at 81.5
Toronto was never going to be ok... Winnipeg was never going to be ok... Winnipeg today traded trouba for a flawed 4-5 dman and a late first round pick. some people call it a good problem to have. Winnipeg never won a thing and are already breaking their team apart. now I hear they will move ehlers for one of those dmen in Carolina to try to fill the hole. trading pennies on the dollar maybe? we shall see
Toronto media is a bit out there... they think they will make some great trades for marleau/Zaitsev... we shall see... we shall see... but at the very least we see proof they are being forced to trade away all their vetern depth because of cap management. their kids are seeing their salaries double in the last 2-3 years compared to what the norm was before McDavid/draisailt. this extra 10 mill a year that Matthews/marner are going to end up with would have let Toronto keep their team together... but not now.
some people say let the players get what they are worth... these same people dont realize that the goverments give massive amounts of money to each team to help it stay competitive. its the taxpayers who are building these new arenas. we are giving many other subsidies and other moneys to the teams too.
the money might be there... but billion or more dollars has been given to the league straight from the tax payers... and 50% is going to the players slaries.
ironically the players benefit 50% of the revunues generated by these tax handouts... but dont participate in the building of any arenas. maybe there should be a tax on the players salaries to help finance the arenas that are ultimately generating all the money?
anyhow... its quite the house of cards. a lot of voodoo math. a bunch of changing owners getting in for a short time... losing their shirts... and then bailing out with a resale.
I love the game... I only watch nhl branded product... so I hope for this league to be healthy for years to come. maybe they can keep the balls juggling? ive seen 2 lockout/labour stoppages in recent years... 1 cost us a whole season. im going to predict this next one will be just as bad. sorry. other people will tell you everything is ok. they made a lot of other predictons that dont come true too
I questioned the 83 number when it came out... but smarter people then me told me to shut up. I wanted to believe 83 so after resisting it for a few weeks I just used it. its happier to go along with what people are telling you.
now heres another example maybe im right quite often when I talk about this stuff. I spend a hell of a lot of time studying it, so im not too surprised.
we will see... number gets released soon... and then we can chew down and have a hot discussion what the team can/should do.
that extra 1.5 mill is going to be HUGE
will it cost us a high pick when suddenly we are FORCED to move backes? will it cost us Heinen when we cant afford his arbitration number?
I dont see it costing us McAvoy or carlo… but will I be wrong about that?
certainly seems to slam the door on keeping Johansson... I never gave that any credibility at all... but again will I be wrong?
hell... if I am wrong then by all means people come after me when the numbers are known... tell me I was an idiot. im not afraid to toss out my predictions a year or two ahead of time... but if im wrong then im a big boy. tell me after the fact I was wrong.
seems to me, most of what is going on today is stuff I said would be happening and I was saying it along time ago
