Value of: Trading up for Sam Dickinson

[dgibb10]

Reuniting Bahl with his junior coach.
Originally I was thinking trading up in the 2nd, but NJ doesn't have their 2nd. Thought about Siegenthaler too, don't think the Devils would do that.

Barrett Hayton may be the odd guy out while still holding trade value if they can find a center to play with Keller.

Yeah NJDs 2nd would probably fit, but we don't have it, who knows if next years pair of 2nds hold that value (and I would have thought adding to the vast collection of 2nds wouldn't be fully appealling).

Maybe something ike Bahl+10th+2025 1st for 5th overall+something from Utah to bridge the gap. If Hayton fills that in your eyes I think it would work for me

Dickinson has the size and skating for the NHL, but even with that, there's no way I rush him into the line-up next season, regardless of what my roster is looking like. If NJ selects Dickenson, don't rush him.

In the dickinson scenario:

Next year:
Siegs-Hamilton
Hughes-Nemec
STOPGAP-Marino

stopgap could be like Cole, Brodie, Dumoulin, McNabb, TVR, etc

then year after we look to trade 1 of Marino or Hamilton if Casey and Dickinson are knocking on the door ready

Hughes-Nemec
Dickinson-Casey
Siegs-Marino
for example. Or maybe go with a 2 year stopgap and be really patient with Dickinson

 

[dgibb10]

We aren't trading up to get this guy when there is a chance he might be there at 10. There also every well can be another player the Devils Management want more at the 10 spot than Dickinson if he falls. Just take the BPA , although the Devils need a center the most but would settle for a winger if need be.

If he falls to us, wonderful.

But I am sold on him above the other prospects in terms of talent and fit.

So if for example NJD has a pretty good idea 1 of Seattle or Calgary is going to take him, I would pay to jump them and get my guy

Has Fitz ever traded up?

Not sure. But me personally am enamoured with SD. Seen him quite a few times, both live and on TV/Video, and think he would be an absolutely perfect fit.

And there is bo reason for any team to drop beside if they get an overpayment.

Dickinson is a lock in the top6. If you don't want to pay the price its fine for moat teams

Historical value based models suggest it that the Historical price based models generally involve it already being an overpay.

 

[dgibb10]

I agree Habs would need to add something equivalent to another late 1st pick or a good prospect ala Struble/Mesar/Engstrom

And I think at that point NJD would rather be adding a lower tier piece than Mercer to keep it simple than be selling Mercer for parts as well

I'd much rather just offer NJD 25 1st+10th overall for 5th

The estimated cost to move up from 10 to 5 is 23rd overall

 

[Benstheman]

And I think at that point NJD would rather be adding a lower tier piece than Mercer to keep it simple than be selling Mercer for parts as well

I'd much rather just offer NJD 25 1st+10th overall for 5th

The estimated cost to move up from 10 to 5 is 23rd overall

Fair enough.

But Habs wouldn’t be interested in another 2025 1st, unless they can package it with this years 26OA to get another pick in top 15 or a young player ala Newhook/Dach.

To resume I think value is fine but it would have to be transformed in something more immediate than a pick that might help the Habs in 3-4-5 years from now.

 

[malcb33]

5oa
WIN pick

Vs

Mercer
10Oa

I could see this being attractive for the Habs, but they probably need to add Struble to that. Struble is a solid, mobile LHD who could easily provide quality minutes until Dickenson is ready. Another option could be a retained Dvorak to play 3/4C next year.

 

[dgibb10]

Fair enough.

But Habs wouldn’t be interested in another 2025 1st, unless they can package it with this years 26OA to get another pick in top 15 or a young player ala Newhook/Dach.

To resume I think value is fine but it would have to be transformed in something more immediate than a pick that might help the Habs in 3-4-5 years from now.

Understandable. I think 5 probably ends up slightly out of the reach of where trading up for Dickinson makes sense, at least in my eyes.

 

[Smitty426]

i wouldn't take any of them ahead of dickinson. but the beauty is in the eye of the beholder

agreed but as you said. I think Jersey is ok because when/if Dickinson is gone they shift and take Nygard (assuming Buiim is gone too)

 

[67 others]

I think I'd do this if I were Utah. Mercer would their #1C and outside Celebrini there are no real promising #1C prospects outside of maybe Lindstrom, but I think Mercer is just a better Lindstrom already.

A lot of people will quote that Utah needs dmen, but what they need is a #1 d-man, not anything less. Moser and Durzi are both very solid #2D and Valimaki is a decent top 4 defender. Simashev could be a #1D but projects as more of a Hjalmarsson type which is also something they need anyways. Lamoreaux before he was injured looked like he could reach #1D peak.

They do however badly need a #1C until Cooley is ready at the least, and he may not even project at C long term. They also just need better centers in general because no one should have Boyd as their #1C, ever, and Bjugstad should be in the bottom 6. Guenther could project as a C but it's way more likely that he and But are wingers.

Cooley scored 11 goals and 5 assists in the last 21 games of the season. He's not there yet but he is progressing well.

And Barrett Hayton was playing great before injury.

I'm not sure going after a C is the best move for the yotes.

 

[Altimus]

Ottawas gotta be dead set on getting a RD or Iginla at 7th so I don't see them budging. They need a player that can impact the lineup immediately.

 

[TBF1972]

agreed but as you said. I think Jersey is ok because when/if Dickinson is gone they shift and take Nygard (assuming Buiim is gone too)

hfboard devils love mbn. we don't know how our management and scouting team sees him. i would feel better if one of the player you mentioned goes in the top10.

 

[Heldig]

Isn't Schmaltz your #1C?

Schmaltz plays RW with Keller on LW and a big ? in the middle.

 

[Dead Coyote]

Cooley scored 11 goals and 5 assists in the last 21 games of the season. He's not there yet but he is progressing well.

And Barrett Hayton was playing great before injury.

I'm not sure going after a C is the best move for the yotes.

Hayton hasn't played like even a 2C in several years. He has stretches where he looks good but the vast majority of the time he's a sub par 3rd liner. Utah may or may not move on from him when his contract is up or try and trade him, but he is by no means their answer to a 1C. He's also older than Mercer anyways and doesn't fit into our core regardless.

And yes, I do think Cooley will eventually be a wonderful 1C. But I think he should have at least another 1-2 years being slightly more sheltered and learning how to be more responsible defensively and get used to the pace and flow of the NHL. I don't think he should be playing with Keller and Schmaltz full time in an ideal world, they will get put against other teams top D and Cooley isn't ready for that in a sustained season. The whole point of getting Mercer would be to have Cooley be more sheltered and allow him, Guenther, and Doan to grow as prospects before letting them loose to the wolves and making them take most of the responsibility of being the top line.

This relies on Utah owner Ryan Smyth saying he wants to spend, wants to contend, and will be active in FA. If those things aren't true then there's no real point to this trade. But Mercer would be a very good candidate for them to use picks for as he's young, fits in with our core, would be exactly what Keller and Schmaltz need in a center, cost controlled, and can play a variety of positions and is extremely flexible in the lineup.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Ottawas gotta be dead set on getting a RD or Iginla at 7th so I don't see them budging. They need a player that can impact the lineup immediately.

I don’t think any of them will be ready for the fall, but ya I think they nab a RD.

 

[Dead Coyote]

If you want Mercer as your #1C, your team will be ahl caliber. You seem to overrate alot of his quality. He's not a good playmaker, he's not good on face off and he 's not physical. Hell he's probably not even a C

I was referring to Schmaltz as being a good playmaker, not Mercer. Keller and Schmaltz are both great playmakers and what they need is a C who is able to cycle the puck well, cover for them defensively, and is able to take their passes and score.

-----------------------------------

I think people are underrating Mercer a lot. You know who else didn't really blossom into a scoring forward until 24? Clayton Keller. And Keller wasn't stuck behind players like Hughes, Hischier, Meier and Bratt either. Yes, Mercer has had a down year and is still looking at finding consistency. He's also only 22 and is top 10 among his peers (22 and under) in various categories (goals, points, ESG, g/60, gpg). He's just straight up tied for 6th in goals and ESG, and he's the majority of the time playing on the 2nd or 3rd line. He's also probably better defensively than most of the guys ahead of him, other than Jarvis, and maybe Laf and Raymond.

This isn't Utah trading a top 10 pick for some plug who has no potential, this is Utah trading the pick for a guy who could grow and blossom into a very, very, very good player. The value might be off and it's definitely possible that this deal would never happen because it's not GMBA's style (usually) but I also wouldn't doubt it if NJD are that interested in the pick. Dickinson could also easily grow into a #1 2 way D which is probably more valuable than what Mercer would be at peak, he could also turn into a solid Hjalmarsson type and be just a decent #3D. We're talking about players with huge potential who have yet to hit their peaks, there's risk on both sides. That's kinda what makes the deal possible at all.

 

[Scintillating10]

What would be the cost from NJD to move up to select Sam Dickinson at each of the following spots?

Estimated pick costs (puckpedia) to move up from 10th to the following spots

5th: 23rd overall
6th: 29th overall
7th: 37th overall
8th: 49th overall
9th: 72nd overall

What would you offer Habs for 5?

 

[dgibb10]

What would you offer Habs for 5?

It would probably be an underwhelming offer, because it's probably just outside of the realm of where realistically a trade up make sense.

But according to puckpedia the value gap to move up is equivalent to 23rd overall.

I'd offer either Holtz or the 2025 1st to move up from 10th.

I imagine that's underwhelming for MTL, but I don't think it makes sense to go too much higher, as I highly doubt MTL will be selecting Dickinson anyway and a trade with 6-8 would likely be more feasible.

 

[dgibb10]

Ottawas gotta be dead set on getting a RD or Iginla at 7th so I don't see them budging. They need a player that can impact the lineup immediately.

Understandable. Ottawa taking a RD would make dickinson slide another spot so works for me. I don't know how you view Parekh & Yakemchuk but I feel like 1 of them should be available at 10 no?

Macklin, Demidov, Leveshnov top 3.

MTL goes forward, either Lindstrom or Iginla. Let's say Lindstrom.

so that's CBJ at 4, Utah at 6, Seattle at 8 and calgary at 9 you have to worry about.

And Silayev, Catton, Eiserman, Iginla, Buium, Parekh, Yakemchuk for those 4 spots.

I feel fairly confident you'd be able to pick up Yakemchuk at 10 if you want him

 

[dgibb10]

hfboard devils love mbn. we don't know how our management and scouting team sees him. i would feel better if one of the player you mentioned goes in the top10.

Guys with potential to go top 9 from what I see.

Locks: Lev, Macklin, Demidov

after that I see 10 possible guys for the remaining 6 spots before NJD

Lindstrom, Silayev, Dickinson, Eiserman, Catton, Parekh, Buium, Iginla, Yakemchuk, Helenius,

 

[Scintillating10]

It would probably be an underwhelming offer, because it's probably just outside of the realm of where realistically a trade up make sense.

But according to puckpedia the value gap to move up is equivalent to 23rd overall.

I'd offer either Holtz or the 2025 1st to move up from 10th.

I imagine that's underwhelming for MTL, but I don't think it makes sense to go too much higher, as I highly doubt MTL will be selecting Dickinson anyway and a trade with 6-8 would likely be more feasible.

If you deal Holtz for Necas, flip Necas to us we could switch firsts with Jersey