GDT: Trades & Free Agency

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ToneDog

56 years and counting. #FireTheShanaClan!
Jun 11, 2017
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A decent target but with those stats and good play, I suspect someone will throw stupid money at him and regret it quite a bit.

He has been good for awhile, even on bad teams, so he'd be a good target if the price is right.
He's from NJ who will be in the market for a goalie. If they do not land Markstrom, I can see them being the team to throw money at him.

I believe you missed the point. I should have bolded it:
Only a matter of time before SLC with all their picks and prospects passes us. I wonder if Mitch likes the weather in Utah.
 

Dekes For Days

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Sep 24, 2018
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Not only has this core won nothing but they are actively getting passed in the process.
The team has not won the cup yet, and the team is currently having a comparatively down year due to some questionable management decisions, after three consecutive 111+ point seasons. The core is not the problem though, and they are not "actively getting passed". They remain top tier players, and getting rid of them would only result in further drop off.
 

nuck

Schrodingers Cat
Aug 18, 2005
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You are not alone. If they lose in round #1 again, how can you justify having given Nylander 11.5mx8 and following it up by giving Marner a minimum of $11.5mx8? It would be pure insanity.
Giving Willie that money in the first place was the insanity. He had 54 points in his first 37 games and after signing the deal is 43 in 43. He is currently 4 points ahead, and 7 goals behind his best career comp Forsberg who is signed for $3M less per year with peanuts in bonus's and a modified NT his last two years of the deal. WTF Tre?

That was Shanny's commitment to the big three and running it back one more time. They have no control and therefore zero leverage on Mitch so using him as the solution is unrealistic. He has a contract so they can ask for a change which he would refuse. The best they could hope for was he still wanted to return as a UFA and wouldn't work them too hard on the new deal. They can talk tough I guess but will that make him leave? And would they risk losing him for only cap space?

If the below from Friedman is accurate, does that seem like a club that would play winner take all with their second best player? If they get dunked on in the first round and Shanny gets axed can you imagine the new GM starting his tenure out but letting Marner walk as an FA.

I think, over the summer, the Maple Leafs made it clear they were willing to trade Nylander for a top defenceman and there just wasn’t anything out there,” Friedman said on the 32 Thoughts podcast. “And part of the reason is, teams that were going to trade for him, they didn’t know if they were going to be able to sign him [either]. So nobody is trading a good ‘D’ or top ‘D’ for a Nylander you don’t know if you’re going to be able to sign. Look how hard this negotiation was on Toronto; it wasn’t going to be any easier anywhere else.”

Friedman believes, even after the season started, Toronto didn’t close the door on dealing ‘Willy’ until it became clear there was no satisfying swap to make.

“[The Leafs thought] ‘There is in not a defenceman we can get our hands on that’s worth losing this player’ and that is when they dove back into [the negotiations],” he said.


Edit - NM kicked in at signingo_O
 
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Punch Drunk Loov

Gaaaaary Roberts!
Dec 6, 2011
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The team has not won the cup yet, and the team is currently having a comparatively down year due to some questionable management decisions, after three consecutive 111+ point seasons. The core is not the problem though, and they are not "actively getting passed". They remain top tier players, and getting rid of them would only result in further drop off.
The bolded is only true if we don't have a great plan for the excess cap space. If we do have a great plan then it's worth serious consideration.

Sadly team building is all about cap allocation and this structure has all kinds of negative effects. For example, we probably can't afford to lock up Knies long term
 

Americanadian

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The team has not won the cup yet, and the team is currently having a comparatively down year due to some questionable management decisions, after three consecutive 111+ point seasons. The core is not the problem though, and they are not "actively getting passed". They remain top tier players, and getting rid of them would only result in further drop off.
I feel pretty comfortable saying they've been passed by NYR, Carolina, Florida, VGK, Colorado, Dallas. All teams that have finished bottom 10 in the league, or started their franchise during the Matthews/Marner/Nylander era.

The core players are top tier players, I am not arguing that. The issue is they are overpaid relative to their peers which has forced the Leafs to underspend on the rest of the team. An overpayment to a top tier player is still an overpayment and still puts the team at a disadvantage. In a league where 23 minute per night defenseman go for 7.5M, having 22.5M invested in 2 wingers is inefficient. (7.5x3=22.5).
 
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Dekes For Days

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The bolded is only true if we don't have a great plan for the excess cap space.
And we don't. The argument is never that we need to trade Marner to execute a realistic plan where we increase the overall impact from that cap space by doing X, Y, and Z. And even in that scenario, Marner should be the 2nd last place we should go to open up that cap space. The argument is always that we lost in the playoffs in the past, so purge anything that looks remotely familiar, even if they're the best parts of your team and aren't the reason you lost, and we'll figure out the rest later. That's not a great plan.
For example, we probably can't afford to lock up Knies long term
We can afford to lock up Knies long-term. He shouldn't be too expensive, and we've had cap hits in the range he'd fall in, even without the rapidly rising cap we'll have now.
I feel pretty comfortable saying they've been passed by NYR, Carolina, Florida, VGK, Colorado, Dallas. All teams that have finished bottom 10 in the league during the Matthews/Marner/Nylander era.
Vegas hasn't finished bottom 10, and is below us in the standings FYI.
I'm also not sure why you think it matters that they've finished bottom 10 in a season in the past 8 years anyway. Most of the league has.
Some of these teams peaking have slightly surpassed what we've been able to do in our worst year in almost half a decade, but I'm not sure what you think that proves.
The core players are top tier players, I am not arguing that. The issue is they are overpaid relative to their peers which has forced the Leafs to underspend on the rest of the team.
They're not overpaid relative to their peers, or their impact, and we have still have enough to effectively fill out the rest of the team.
In a league where 23 minute per night defenseman go for 7.5M, having 22.5M invested in 2 wingers is inefficient. (7.5x3=22.5).
The defensemen that play 23 minutes per night have a very wide range of cap hits and impacts.
Investing a certain amount of money into players that bring that amount of impact and more is not inefficient.
 

Americanadian

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Vegas hasn't finished bottom 10, and is below us in the standings FYI.
I corrected my statement. Vegas didn't exist when Matthews/Marner/Nylander entered the league and they've since won a cup.
I'm also not sure why you think it matters that they've finished bottom 10 in a season in the past 8 years anyway. Most of the league has.
Some of these teams peaking have slightly surpassed what we've been able to do in our worst year in almost half a decade, but I'm not sure what you think that proves.
All the teams mentioned have been more successful in the playoffs than the Leafs despite bottom 10 finishes in the Matthews/Marner/Nylander era, thus they have surpassed the Leafs.
They're not overpaid relative to their peers, or their impact, and we have still have enough to effectively fill out the rest of the team.
Matthews will be the highest paid player in the league. He is not the best players in the league. It's arguable but he's not. Nylander will be paid as a top 5 player in the league, he's not even close. Marner is paid as a top 10 players in the league. He has not been that this year. None of these players have come close to being top 10 performers in the playoffs.
The defensemen that play 23 minutes per night have a very wide range of cap hits and impacts.
Investing a certain amount of money into players that bring that amount of impact and more is not inefficient.
I'd take Montour+Demelo at 11M this off-season + whatever Marner returns in a trade>Marner.
 
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Menzinger

Kessel4LadyByng
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Depends on how keen you are on spending?

I think most of our assets and cap money need to go on at least 2 RD and a middle 6C so I'd look to get the best available 1B type and a good 3G as insurance

You can go big game hunting on a Soros type 1G but that's going to be bloody expensive, like Cowan + expensive

Yep. Focusing on depth for the position - a tandem + a dirt cheap vet #3 (Murray?) is likely the way they'll go for at least next season.
 
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TMLAM34

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Yep. Focusing on depth for the position - a tandem + a dirt cheap vet #3 (Murray?) is likely the way they'll go for at least next season.
We need more than depth in the goaltending position. We haven’t had a real number 1 since Belfour (Andersen is debatable) and it keeps being one of our weak points. I’d be going all out for Saros this summer. Knies and Cowan would be off limits but everyone else I’m more than open to moving from our young players and prospects. Toronto’s 1st, Robertson + Niemela.
 

ToneDog

56 years and counting. #FireTheShanaClan!
Jun 11, 2017
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Vegas Golden Knights

1713122519878.png


Shanny and the 3 amigos

1713122721672.png
 

TheMadHatTrick

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Nov 2, 2008
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Jani Hakanpää would be a solid, lowkey, UFA signing this offseason for a third pair role.

6'6 225lbs RD playing 18+ minutes a game for Dallas. He's +10 with 196 hits and 123 blocks.

The downside is he'll be 33 next March.
 
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Fogelhund

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Sep 15, 2007
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The problem is you have and will again back up the brinks truck before they have won anything. They are betting on two horses that have proven they cannot win a big race 8 years in a row and you are hoping that you are not repeating the same mistake.
The problem is, assuming that pay is based upon playoff results. It never has been, and never will be.

While I do think a shakeup of some sort might be necessary, if once again they fail to make it past the first round, we do have to appreciate that many other players failed before finding success too... How long did it take Ovechkin, Sakic, Yzerman...

I also feel like the first right move is a coaching change, to see if someone else can get more out of these guys. I thought we really should have done that earlier in this year... maybe sooner, but now we've wasted another year on testing that theory out, if it doesn't work for this coach and group of players.
 

ToneDog

56 years and counting. #FireTheShanaClan!
Jun 11, 2017
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Richmond Hill, ON
The problem is, assuming that pay is based upon playoff results. It never has been, and never will be.

While I do think a shakeup of some sort might be necessary, if once again they fail to make it past the first round, we do have to appreciate that many other players failed before finding success too... How long did it take Ovechkin, Sakic, Yzerman...

I also feel like the first right move is a coaching change, to see if someone else can get more out of these guys. I thought we really should have done that earlier in this year... maybe sooner, but now we've wasted another year on testing that theory out, if it doesn't work for this coach and group of players.
On the flip side, we have Jumbo and the Sharks, the Sedin and Canucks. Both made it and lost in the SCF. We are not even close.

I do agree that a coaching change could be a difference maker.
 

Americanadian

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The problem is, assuming that pay is based upon playoff results. It never has been, and never will be.

While I do think a shakeup of some sort might be necessary, if once again they fail to make it past the first round, we do have to appreciate that many other players failed before finding success too... How long did it take Ovechkin, Sakic, Yzerman...
Sakic and Yzerman aren't really fair comparables. They both played in an era with no cap, teams could afford to keep their best players while also adding.

Ovechkin is a fair comparable but Washington also moved on from core players like Semin and Green before they won. They also spread their money throughout their lineup rather than stack cap allocation at the top. They are more of an argument to make a big shakeup than an argument to run back the core.
 
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Fogelhund

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Sakic and Yzerman aren't really fair comparables. They both played in an era with no cap, teams could afford to keep their best players while also adding.

Ovechkin is a fair comparable but Washington also moved on from core players like Semin and Green before they won. They also spread their money throughout their lineup rather than stack cap allocation at the top. They are more of an argument to make a big shakeup than an argument to run back the core.

Agreed on changing parts of the core, and building out... if the next coach can't get these guys to win. I think it's really impossible from where we sit, to determine which of the core would need to go... then again, Tavares contract is up after next year, and that problem might fix itself right there, having too much money tied in too few. Along with the emergence of McMann, Robertson, Knies.. and maybe next year another wave of Cowen, Grebyonkin (who apparently is coming over next year)... Minten... we have plenty of cheap depth now.
 

LaPlante94

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Since 2016, or 2017, or 2018, or 2019, or 2020, or 2021, or 2022, we have been a top-5 team or better over all of those different stretches.
It sucks that we've dropped to 10th in this specific year as a result of some questionable decisions, but that has nothing to do with Marner.
Questionable decisions? We easily win the division and possibly leading the NHL in points if Samsonov wasn't garbage for 75% of the season. These management made questionable decisions posts are just stupid now and you look ridiculous especially when one of those so called questionable decisions had to carry the goaltending load when Woll went down and when we had enough of Samsonov and stopped playing him and gave him time off or else we'd be even further down the standings. 2 of those other questionable signings have looked very good with Matthews who has even been a 2 PPG player I believe since Marner went down with an injury and got put with them. 1 questionable signing was to help a weakness we had which was lack of puck movers on the backend and he's been on LTIR and not counting towards the cap all year so that signing hasn't hurt us. Reaves is the only one you can say that is questionable and that's only because it's a 3 years deal which is also very easy to get rid of and bury in the minors, even though he's bee good since returning from injury. All those 111+ point seasons and no playoff success and we should celebrate? Have analytics really blinded some of you this much?
 

Americanadian

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Agreed on changing parts of the core, and building out... if the next coach can't get these guys to win. I think it's really impossible from where we sit, to determine which of the core would need to go... then again, Tavares contract is up after next year, and that problem might fix itself right there, having too much money tied in too few. Along with the emergence of McMann, Robertson, Knies.. and maybe next year another wave of Cowen, Grebyonkin (who apparently is coming over next year)... Minten... we have plenty of cheap depth now.
The Leafs currently have a hole at 3C. Once Tavares expires the Leafs have a hole at 2C and 3C. I don't think re-signing Tavares is the solution. I also don't think the solution will be cheap. I think the Leafs would be better off investing 11-12M into a 2C instead of a 2RW. Likewise I think they'd be better investing big money into a 2D instead of a 2RW (I'm referring to either of Nylander or Marner). If you re-invested the 22M from Marner and Tavares into three 7M players (2C, 1RD, 2RD/LD) the Leafs are probably a better, more balanced team.

I also think there's value in keeping a big chunk of cap in players who don't have NMC/NTC's for the 25/26 season so they can make a play at McDavid when he comes up.
 

Fogelhund

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The Leafs currently have a hole at 3C. Once Tavares expires the Leafs have a hole at 2C and 3C. I don't think re-signing Tavares is the solution. I also don't think the solution will be cheap. I think the Leafs would be better off investing 11-12M into a 2C instead of a 2RW. Likewise I think they'd be better investing big money into a 2D instead of a 2RW (I'm referring to either of Nylander or Marner). If you re-invested the 22M from Marner and Tavares into three 7M players (2C, 1RD, 2RD/LD) the Leafs are probably a better, more balanced team.

I also think there's value in keeping a big chunk of cap in players who don't have NMC/NTC's for the 25/26 season so they can make a play at McDavid when he comes up.
Now you are in fantasy dream land... that's not happening.
 

Kiwi

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He's fine, but we have plenty of bottom pair guys. We need no-doubt top-4 guys.

Liljegren is going to be the wildcard, if he could take top 4 minutes next season that makes life miles easier building this team

Unfortunately I'll be ****** if I know if he's capable of it
 

Dreakmur

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Liljegren is going to be the wildcard, if he could take top 4 minutes next season that makes life miles easier building this team

Unfortunately I'll be ****** if I know if he's capable of it

If Liljegren can take a top-4 role, we'd only need 2 more. McCabe can hold a spot in a pinch, but he is far too erratic to trust in a long-term top-4 role.
 
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