GDT: Trades & Free Agency -- Off-season edition

[Fogelhund]

Overpaying a bottom pair D to play on their off-side is not a recipe for success.

I'm looking at his most common line mates in VAN right now and it looks like he spent ~60 minutes on his off-side this season in VAN and 735 minutes on the left.

Noting, Zadorov isn't my first choice either, but I think that's who Tre will go after... and that's what he'll cost.

 

[Americanadian]

Noting, Zadorov isn't my first choice either, but I think that's who Tre will go after... and that's what he'll cost.

Unfortunately it looks like we're heading that way. FWIW AFP projected his salary at 5.1M when they released their early projections in January. Their MAE for last year's final projections was 365k. His value most likely has gone up since then so I am anticipating it to be closer to 6 than 5.

 

[mydnyte]

just had a lol moment, remembering how Oilers goalies tend to become stars once they leave the Oil...
Rights to Samsonov (UFA looking for a multi year deal, or anything more than 1 season) + Lili for the rights to Skinner (RFA) + Akey (RHD)

Akey could be good soon, and we will be active on the ufa market, Lili has been abused in Toronto and could use a fresh start.
Skinner has lost his teams confidence a few times now

 

[Shanwhatplan]

Unfortunately it looks like we're heading that way. FWIW AFP projected his salary at 5.1M when they released their early projections in January. Their MAE for last year's final projections was 365k. His value most likely has gone up since then so I am anticipating it to be closer to 6 than 5.

If Tre signs him for anywhere close to that, then that will be a huge mistake! I feel he is playing above his expected pay grade, and will eventually be back to what he is, a very good bottom 6 dman. We need a top 2 dman who can replace Rielly on PP1 and is a threat to shoot from the point. We probably also need a top 4 dman who is solid in his own end and can play on the PK, but if we keep McCabe and Benoit in the top 4 I will be okay with that.

 

[Shanwhatplan]

just had a lol moment, remembering how Oilers goalies tend to become stars once they leave the Oil...
Rights to Samsonov (UFA looking for a multi year deal, or anything more than 1 season) + Lili for the rights to Skinner (RFA) + Akey (RHD)

Akey could be good soon, and we will be active on the ufa market, Lili has been abused in Toronto and could use a fresh start.
Skinner has lost his teams confidence a few times now

I would not be in favour of trading for Skinner. Do we want to go into the playoffs next year with a goalie who has so far shown that he can't be depended upon when it matters, along with another one who can't stay healthy?

 

[Magic Man]

Marner with an extenson for one of these 12 templates...

Utah - 6th overall/Keller + Crouse + McBain
Seattle - 8th overall/Wright + Oleksiak + Gourde
Buffalo - 11th overall/Cozens + Tuch + 2024 2nd
Philadelphia - 12th overall + Bonk + Hart
Minnesota - 13th overall + Hartman + 2024 2nd
San Jose - 14th overall + Musty + Edstrom
Detroit - 15th overall + Danielson + Rasmussen
Nashville - Saros (extended) + L'Heureux + 2024 2nd
Chicago - Jones (1.5M retained) + Leafs 2025 1st + 2024 2nd
Pittsburgh - Karlsson (2M retained) + Top-5 protected 2025 1st + Pickering
Washington - Leonard + Wilson + 2024 2nd
Anaheim - Zegras + Mintyukov + 2024 2nd

 

[mydnyte]

I would not be in favour of trading for Skinner. Do we want to go into the playoffs next year with a goalie who has so far shown that he can't be depended upon when it matters, along with another one who can't stay healthy?

the irony is we are likely looking at 3 former Oilers goalies as our backup in Brossoit, Talbot, and Stolarz
Skinner would be a Huge gamble, but, as an RFA, doesnt hold much leverage, even if he came in as a platoon goalie

 

[TMLAM34]

We need to go after a second line center with speed. Stephenson is the guy for me. I think he would slot in between Knies and Nylander really well. Not sure how much he’ll get on the open market, thinking 5.5/6 million per year?

 

[Americanadian]

Mock off-season V3:

Trade:
To VAN: Rielly
To TOR: Garland, VAN 25 2nd

To VGK: Marner (50% retention), Dewar or Holmberg
To TOR: Theodore, Roy
To CHI: Marner (50% salary), SJ 25 3rd, Akhtyamov or Peksa

To NSH: Robertson, Jarnkrok
To TOR: Tomasino

To CAR: Liljegren
To TOR: Drury

To SJ: Kampf
To TOR: Rutta

UFA:
Demelo 5Mx4
Tanev 5Mx2
Bertuzzi 5.5Mx4
Domi 4Mx4
Driedger 1MX1

RFA:
Drury 2Mx3
Tomasino 1.35Mx1

Going forward one of Drury/Tomasino steps into Tavares' role.

This roster has ~3M in cap space with Reaves/Webber as extras. They could easily sign Montour to a 7.5Mx7 over Demelo although I've personally soured on that idea.

 

[aingefan]

That scares me with Tre having a specific type and wanting *his* guy.

If Tre signs him for anywhere close to that, then that will be a huge mistake! I feel he is playing above his expected pay grade, and will eventually be back to what he is, a very good bottom 6 dman. We need a top 2 dman who can replace Rielly on PP1 and is a threat to shoot from the point. We probably also need a top 4 dman who is solid in his own end and can play on the PK, but if we keep McCabe and Benoit in the top 4 I will be okay with that.

 

[Kurtz]

McCabe can play his off-side but he's better on the left side. Why handicap him to accommodate a player who has eclipsed 19 minutes/game once in his career? For reference: Benoit-McCabe was a good pair for the Leafs (2 LHD), Benoit played 0:13 less per game than Zadorov this season. I'm not saying he's better than Zadorov but at 1.35M vs 5M+ he's a better asset than Zadorov.

Demelo averaged 4 minute/game more than Zadorov and will probably get less on the open market. He would be the correct piece to add next to McCabe.

That was an outlier for Demelo, career- wise they've both averaged 18m/game.

I wouldn't say no to Demelo, but he'll get what, 4 - 4.5? I'd rather pay an extra .5-1 and get all the extra dimensions that Zadorov provides (point shot/goal scoring, intimidation, leadership, and 2 years younger).

Plus, we should be able to afford both if we move Mitch or move on from Bert.

 

[aingefan]

Mock off-season V3:

Trade:
To VAN: Rielly
To TOR: Garland, VAN 25 2nd

To VGK: Marner (50% retention), Dewar or Holmberg
To TOR: Theodore, Roy
To CHI: Marner (50% salary), SJ 25 3rd, Akhtyamov or Peksa

To NSH: Robertson, Jarnkrok
To TOR: Tomasino

To CAR: Liljegren
To TOR: Drury

To SJ: Kampf
To TOR: Rutta

UFA:
Demelo 5Mx4
Tanev 5Mx2
Bertuzzi 5.5Mx4
Domi 4Mx4
Driedger 1MX1

RFA:
Drury 2Mx3
Tomasino 1.35Mx1

View attachment 872246

Going forward one of Drury/Tomasino steps into Tavares' role.

I really like Tomasino as a target. Legit breakout candidate in my eyes.
Ruuta is a smart idea too.

 

[Americanadian]

That was an outlier for Demelo, career- wise they've both averaged 18m/game.

I wouldn't say no to Demelo, but he'll get what, 4 - 4.5? I'd rather pay an extra .5-1 and get all the extra dimensions that Zadorov provides (point shot/goal scoring, intimidation, leadership, and 2 years younger).

Demelo has fluctuated between 17 and 22 minutes (average TOI/season) since 2018. This was his 1st season where he average over 21 minutes/game, 2nd season over 20, 4th over 19. Zadorov's career high is 19:12 on a non-playoff Chicago team in 20-21.

Plus, we should be able to afford both if we move Mitch or move on from Bert.

We absolutely should but why not aim higher for a Tanev/Montour or even Roy.

I really like Tomasino as a target. Legit breakout candidate in my eyes.
Ruuta is a smart idea too.

He also might not go back to Nashville:



Skip ahead to the 40 second mark.

 

[Brobust]

Mock off-season V3:

Trade:
To VAN: Rielly
To TOR: Garland, VAN 25 2nd

To VGK: Marner (50% retention), Dewar or Holmberg
To TOR: Theodore, Roy
To CHI: Marner (50% salary), SJ 25 3rd, Akhtyamov or Peksa

To NSH: Robertson, Jarnkrok
To TOR: Tomasino

To CAR: Liljegren
To TOR: Drury

To SJ: Kampf
To TOR: Rutta

UFA:
Demelo 5Mx4
Tanev 5Mx2
Bertuzzi 5.5Mx4
Domi 4Mx4
Driedger 1MX1

RFA:
Drury 2Mx3
Tomasino 1.35Mx1

View attachment 872246

Going forward one of Drury/Tomasino steps into Tavares' role.

This roster has ~3M in cap space with Reaves/Webber as extras. They could easily sign Montour to a 7.5Mx7 over Demelo although I've personally soured on that idea.

108 imaginary points is what they can aim for with Nic Roy on the 2nd line.

 

[Trapper]

Demelo has fluctuated between 17 and 22 minutes (average TOI/season) since 2018. This was his 1st season where he average over 21 minutes/game, 2nd season over 20, 4th over 19. Zadorov's career high is 19:12 on a non-playoff Chicago team in 20-21.

We absolutely should but why not aim higher for a Tanev/Montour or even Roy.


He also might not go back to Nashville:



Skip ahead to the 40 second mark.

The Toronto Maple Leafs never mention identity at all. There its a mandate from that speech, not an option.

 

[Americanadian]

108 imaginary points is what they can aim for with Nic Roy on the 2nd line.

Put Nic Roy on the 3rd line if you wish. I don't want to see Tavares and Nylander on the same line for a full season. Either is better than the options available in UFA, in my opinion.

 

[Brobust]

Put Nic Roy on the 3rd line if you wish. I don't want to see Tavares and Nylander on the same line for a full season. Either is better than the options available in UFA, in my opinion.

I never want to see Tavares and Nylander together either. So why not trade Tavares instead.

 

[supermann_98]

a 5x5 contract for Zadorov would be one of the worst contracts given out on July 1st. You don't and cannot overpay for a d-man like that.

Agreed but in saying that he will sign for that in Boston or Florida and terrorize us for the next 4 years

 

[Americanadian]

I never want to see Tavares and Nylander together either. So why not trade Tavares instead.

I don't see him waiving his NMC.

 

[Brobust]

I don't see him waiving his NMC.

I think he's more likely to waive his NMC. He can still get another decent contract and I don't see the leafs even considering it. If the the leafs go to him and offer the prospect of bringing up that process a year early.

JT post July 1st has only a $910k cap hit. Making the process of trading even easier.

 

[mydnyte]

I want most of our $$ to be spent on Defense, but, one LWer I'd love us to grab is Dakota Joshua, he plays on the edge and has some skills
I'd prefer him to Bert 100%

 

[Americanadian]

I think he's more likely to waive his NMC. He can still get another decent contract and I don't see the leafs even considering it. If the the leafs go to him and offer the prospect of bringing up that process a year early.

JT post July 1st has only a $910k cap hit. Making the process of trading even easier.

I posted a full argument for him waiving his NMC earlier this week. I am on board with moving on and I can see a trade that makes sense for another team where the Leafs get out of the deal with no retention. I just don't see him doing it. I think it's more likely he comes back to the Leafs at league minimum than he goes and signs elsewhere. He's at an age and point in his career where raising his kids close to him and his wife's family may be more important than money earned. Time will tell.

 

[Kurtz]

Demelo has fluctuated between 17 and 22 minutes (average TOI/season) since 2018. This was his 1st season where he average over 21 minutes/game, 2nd season over 20, 4th over 19. Zadorov's career high is 19:12 on a non-playoff Chicago team in 20-21.

We absolutely should but why not aim higher for a Tanev/Montour or even Roy.


He also might not go back to Nashville:



Skip ahead to the 40 second mark.

Zadorov's career-high is 19:28 over 77 games with the playoff Colorado team in 17-18. He's also very comfortably logging 20 min/night against Edmonton right now in their series.

I wouldn't fixate too much on a couple of minutes, that's often role and context dependent (you can see this in your own Demelo example). For instance, if we put him on our PP (since he'd have the best point shot on the team and that's an element missing on our PP), suddenly that's a 22 mpg guy.

Zadorov is 3rd in ice-time amongst Vancouver D these playoffs (behind Hughes and Hronek), playing real well against a powerful offensive team right now. There's really no reason to call him a bottom-pairing dman at this point.

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

I want most of our $$ to be spent on Defense, but, one LWer I'd love us to grab is Dakota Joshua, he plays on the edge and has some skills
I'd prefer him to Bert 100%

Agreed. We should have drafted him

 

[Americanadian]

Zadorov's career-high is 19:28 over 77 games with the playoff Colorado team in 17-18. He's also very comfortably logging 20 min/night against Edmonton right now in their series.

Good call - I missed that Colorado season.

I wouldn't fixate too much on a couple of minutes, that's often role and context dependent (you can see this in your own Demelo example).

Demelo played 19 minutes/game at ES, 2:30 on the PK. Zadorov played 15:20 at ES, 1:30 on the PK (for VAN).

if we put him on our PP (since he'd have the best point shot on the team and that's an element missing on our PP), suddenly that's a 22 mpg guy.

I'm not sure if they'd want to put Zadorov on the PP. His career high in assists is 18.

Zadorov is 3rd in ice-time amongst Vancouver D these playoffs (behind Hughes and Hronek), playing real well against a powerful offensive team right now. There's really no reason to call him a bottom-pairing dman at this point.

He is no doubt stepping up for the Canucks right now but he was also 6th (bottom pair) in ice time for Vancouver defenseman this season.