GDT: Trades & Free Agency -- Off-season edition

[ULF_55]

You lost me

Teletype is more efficient than Pony Express.

 

[tmlfan98]

There's only about 3 credible pieces of info that have slipped through the cracks so far regarding where Marner could move:
1) Ferris has a history of having his clients play out their contract years without an extension.
2) Ferris (through multiple media mouthpieces) has thrown out 8 year frameworks, which he can only get by re-signing with the team that holds his UFA rights.
3) Ferris (through Dreger) said that Marner isn't waiving his NMC to be traded somewhere he doesn't think he can win.

So in short, Marner knows the only way he can further improve his market value before he hits free agency in 2025, is by having playoff success. No team is learning anything new about Marner anymore based on his 2024-25 regular season.

This likely means he will not waive his NMC for any team unless this team in his eyes:
A) Is a team he thinks he can have playoff success with in 2025.
B) Is also a destination he can see himself re-signing with to stay there long term. This condition is less dependant on team success than the first condition, because once he reaches UFA he's already proven everything he can at that point. Then he signs the biggest contract of his career.

Which means if Marner's not an idiot, he's gotta come to a quick realization once the Leafs let his camp know they will not be engaging in extension talks and moving on after the season if he doesn't waive his NMC (this is based on the assumption that Marner's camp will ignorantly enter negotiations believing they can take Shanny to the cleaners for a 2nd time).

The realization being, that the next best way to improve his market value will be to waive his NMC if the Leafs can find a deal that moves him to a 2025 contender (based on Marner's opinion of what a contender is).

 

[rumman]

I feel like moving off Rielly and Liljegren with the right additions would do a lot to change that vanilla, sagging compete level.

agreed, both can't defend and aren't worth their offensive "prowess........."

I'd argue more mobile defense creates offense

need to acquire defend first D men imo..........

 

[rumman]

The mock trades for Marner I'm seeing on capfriendly are pretty depressing. Like Marner for a guy drafted 29th who has less than 0.5ppg in the AHL and bunch of 2nds kind of trades.

one year of Marner isn't going to get you that much, temper expectations and be happy with a quality piece and move on imo.............

 

[Menzinger]

The mock trades for Marner I'm seeing on capfriendly are pretty depressing. Like Marner for a guy drafted 29th who has less than 0.5ppg in the AHL and bunch of 2nds kind of trades.

I think some folks are being too conservative/pessimistic with their predictions. Like half the proposals I've seen have him returning less than what the Leafs got for Kapanen lol, or what the Wild got for Fiala

If the Leafs do end up trading him, there's a fair chance it's going to have him either expressing positive interest in an extension, or even having signed an extension, which will boost his value

 

[rumman]

I think some folks are being too conservative/pessimistic with their predictions. Like half the proposals I've seen have him returning less than what the Leafs got for Kapanen lol, or what the Wild got for Fiala

If the Leafs do end up trading him, there's a fair chance it's going to have him either expressing positive interest in an extension, or even having signed an extension, which will boost his value

Leafs could put conditions on trade that they get more if he resigns with said team.........

 

[Martin Skoula]

Leafs could put conditions on trade that they get more if he resigns with said team.........

No they can’t…………………..

 

[Trapper]

There's only about 3 credible pieces of info that have slipped through the cracks so far regarding where Marner could move:
1) Ferris has a history of having his clients play out their contract years without an extension.
2) Ferris (through multiple media mouthpieces) has thrown out 8 year frameworks, which he can only get by re-signing with the team that holds his UFA rights.
3) Ferris (through Dreger) said that Marner isn't waiving his NMC to be traded somewhere he doesn't think he can win.

So in short, Marner knows the only way he can further improve his market value before he hits free agency in 2025, is by having playoff success. No team is learning anything new about Marner anymore based on his 2024-25 regular season.

This likely means he will not waive his NMC for any team unless this team in his eyes:
A) Is a team he thinks he can have playoff success with in 2025.
B) Is also a destination he can see himself re-signing with to stay there long term. This condition is less dependant on team success than the first condition, because once he reaches UFA he's already proven everything he can at that point. Then he signs the biggest contract of his career.

Which means if Marner's not an idiot, he's gotta come to a quick realization once the Leafs let his camp know they will not be engaging in extension talks and moving on after the season if he doesn't waive his NMC (this is based on the assumption that Marner's camp will ignorantly enter negotiations believing they can take Shanny to the cleaners for a 2nd time).

The realization being, that the next best way to improve his market value will be to waive his NMC if the Leafs can find a deal that moves him to a 2025 contender (based on Marner's opinion of what a contender is).

Vegas would be a perfect destination. He can play with Eichel for his stats, they have a solid D and good return for us. Plus they are no strangers to the big acquisitions. They love that stuff and 1 year removed from Cup Champs they probably want to get back on that horse.

 

[Americanadian]

Vegas would be a perfect destination. He can play with Eichel for his stats, they have a solid D and good return for us. Plus they are no strangers to the big acquisitions. They love that stuff and 1 year removed from Cup Champs they probably want to get back on that horse.

Their RW depth is also Stone/Marchessault. Both could fall off a cliff at any moment. They could benefit from a young elite RW.

 

[tmlfan98]

Vegas would be a perfect destination. He can play with Eichel for his stats, they have a solid D and good return for us. Plus they are no strangers to the big acquisitions. They love that stuff and 1 year removed from Cup Champs they probably want to get back on that horse.

Where Mark Hunter ends up is also going to be a big factor as well. The 2 teams most connected to him are Columbus and Edmonton. If Mark Hunter ends up with the Oilers, there's a possibility they become the one and only team Marner is willing to waive for. A contender in 2025 with the big London Knights connection.

 

[Menzinger]

Where Mark Hunter ends up is also going to be a big factor as well. The 2 teams most connected to him are Columbus and Edmonton. If Mark Hunter ends up with the Oilers, there's a possibility they become the one and only team Marner is willing to waive for. A contender in 2025 with the big London Knights connection.

The Hunter connection may indeed be a draw, but I'd also suspect he'd be willing to waive to a teams that's more competitive, especially one lo aged in a quieter media market.

I don't see him agreeing to go to somewhere like say the Ducks for example, who are going to be rebuilding for longer

 

[Avilaj07]

To Toronto-
Mctavish
Vatrano
Edmonton 1st Round Pick

To Anaheim-
Marner
Robertson
Abruzzese

 

[Americanadian]

To VGK: Marner (50% retained), Kurashev, Holmberg (-6.5M)
To TOR: Theodore, Roy, Hill (+1.4M)
To CHI: Marner 50% salary, Minten, Howden, Brisson (+5.1M)

To VAN: Rielly (+2.55M)
To TOR: Tomasino, Fabbro, McCarron, VAN 25 2nd (-6.5M)
To NSH: VAN 24 3rd, Garland, Kampf (+3.95M)

To EDM: Robertson
To TOR: Holloway

To CAR: Liljegren
To TOR: Drury

UFA:
Montour 7.5Mx7
Tanev 5Mx2

Re-sign:
Theodore 8Mx8 (2025 start)
Knies 4.5MX8 (2025 start)
Bertuzzi 5.5Mx4
Domi 4Mx4
Dewar 1Mx2
Holloway 1Mx2
Drury 1.35Mx2

Tomasino goes to the AHL. 2/3 of Timmins/Reaves/Dewar stay on the roster, 1 goes down.

 

[Menzinger]

To VGK: Marner (50% retained), Kurashev, Holmberg (-6.5M)
To TOR: Theodore, Roy, Hill (+1.4M)
To CHI: Marner 50% salary, Minten, Howden, Brisson (+5.1M)

To VAN: Rielly (+2.55M)
To TOR: Tomasino, Fabbro, McCarron, VAN 25 2nd (-6.5M)
To NSH: VAN 24 3rd, Garland, Kampf (+3.95M)

To EDM: Robertson
To TOR: Holloway

To CAR: Liljegren
To TOR: Drury

UFA:
Montour 7.5Mx7
Tanev 5Mx2

Re-sign:
Theodore 8Mx8 (2025 start)
Knies 4.5MX8 (2025 start)
Bertuzzi 5.5Mx4
Domi 4Mx4
Dewar 1Mx2
Holloway 1Mx2
Drury 1.35Mx2

View attachment 869014

Tomasino goes to the AHL. 2/3 of Timmins/Reaves/Dewar stay on the roster, 1 goes down.

Leafs are going to need a much bigger sweetener if they're going to retain 50% salary for a whole season

 

[TMLAM34]

To Toronto-
Mctavish
Vatrano
Edmonton 1st Round Pick

To Anaheim-
Marner
Robertson
Abruzzese

Would love to acquire McTavish, just curious as why you would think Marner would waive his NMC to go to Anaheim?

 

[Americanadian]

Leafs are going to need a much bigger sweetener if they're going to retain 50% salary for a whole season

Are you referring to Chicago needing more than Brisson and Minten for Kurashev and retaining 5.45M (388k real money)?

 

[Brobust]

To VGK: Marner (50% retained), Kurashev, Holmberg (-6.5M)
To TOR: Theodore, Roy, Hill (+1.4M)
To CHI: Marner 50% salary, Minten, Howden, Brisson (+5.1M)

To VAN: Rielly (+2.55M)
To TOR: Tomasino, Fabbro, McCarron, VAN 25 2nd (-6.5M)
To NSH: VAN 24 3rd, Garland, Kampf (+3.95M)

To EDM: Robertson
To TOR: Holloway

To CAR: Liljegren
To TOR: Drury

UFA:
Montour 7.5Mx7
Tanev 5Mx2

Re-sign:
Theodore 8Mx8 (2025 start)
Knies 4.5MX8 (2025 start)
Bertuzzi 5.5Mx4
Domi 4Mx4
Dewar 1Mx2
Holloway 1Mx2
Drury 1.35Mx2

View attachment 869014

Tomasino goes to the AHL. 2/3 of Timmins/Reaves/Dewar stay on the roster, 1 goes down.

I'm begging you. No more bullshit WAR.

By the way, if Nic Roy doesn't work out with Nylander then you're stuck with the same top heavy nonsense that they've run for the past 5 years. Well, minus the 90 point winger you just traded away.

 

[Americanadian]

I'm begging you. No more bullshit WAR.

We're just evaluating with vibes from here on in?

By the way, if Nic Roy doesn't work out with Nylander then you're stuck with the same top heavy nonsense that they've run for the past 5 years.

Roy would be the best 3C the Leafs have had for a full season since Kadri. After Tavares expires they can spend on an upgrade.

 

[Brobust]

We're just evaluating with vibes from here on in?

Roy would be the best 3C the Leafs have had for a full season since Kadri. After Tavares expires they can spend on an upgrade.

I'd be impressed if I didn't know who Toronto's 3rd line centers have been since Kadri.

If you're making major trades, you need to solve major issues. The only thing you did is sign 2 good UFA defencemen, but you could have done that without major surgery.

 

[Gabriel426]

There's only about 3 credible pieces of info that have slipped through the cracks so far regarding where Marner could move:
1) Ferris has a history of having his clients play out their contract years without an extension.
2) Ferris (through multiple media mouthpieces) has thrown out 8 year frameworks, which he can only get by re-signing with the team that holds his UFA rights.
3) Ferris (through Dreger) said that Marner isn't waiving his NMC to be traded somewhere he doesn't think he can win.

So in short, Marner knows the only way he can further improve his market value before he hits free agency in 2025, is by having playoff success. No team is learning anything new about Marner anymore based on his 2024-25 regular season.

This likely means he will not waive his NMC for any team unless this team in his eyes:
A) Is a team he thinks he can have playoff success with in 2025.
B) Is also a destination he can see himself re-signing with to stay there long term. This condition is less dependant on team success than the first condition, because once he reaches UFA he's already proven everything he can at that point. Then he signs the biggest contract of his career.

Which means if Marner's not an idiot, he's gotta come to a quick realization once the Leafs let his camp know they will not be engaging in extension talks and moving on after the season if he doesn't waive his NMC (this is based on the assumption that Marner's camp will ignorantly enter negotiations believing they can take Shanny to the cleaners for a 2nd time).

The realization being, that the next best way to improve his market value will be to waive his NMC if the Leafs can find a deal that moves him to a 2025 contender (based on Marner's opinion of what a contender is).

If Marner wants 8 yrs and over 12mil and be on a winning team.
I think it is best for him to play on a crappy team, then he can boast up his points and get traded to a contender with 75% retention. Win the Cup and have the team do a sign and trade to get 8 yrs while giving a mid rounder to the team who won him a Cup. Everybody wins.

 

[Americanadian]

I'd be impressed if I didn't know who Toronto's 3rd line centers have been since Kadri.

If you're making major trades, you need to solve major issues. The only thing you did is sign 2 good UFA defencemen, but you could have done that without major surgery.

This roster has actual center depth. Roy put up 40 points this season and his most common line mate was Kolesar. He's also strong defensively and on the PK. Drury would be the best 4C in the league.

You have 4 actual top 4D who can all play defense. Theodore and Montour are both better players than Montour.

This roster also has a legitimate 1G who has a career .932 sv% in the playoffs.

Not to mention roster flexibility going forward.

 

[tmlfan98]

If Marner wants 8 yrs and over 12mil and be on a winning team.
I think it is best for him to play on a crappy team, then he can boast up his points and get traded to a contender with 75% retention. Win the Cup and have the team do a sign and trade to get 8 yrs while giving a mid rounder to the team who won him a Cup. Everybody wins.

Weird assumption, considering some teams are so bad that no one stat pads and everyone individually looks worse than they are.

Vegas could be a really interesting destination as someone else mentioned. Contending team, in a place I'm guessing Marner would love to stay in long term, with multiple key pieces that could be of interest to the Leafs (Theodore/Hague/Roy/Will Karlsson).

 

[Gabriel426]

Weird assumption, considering some teams are so bad that no one stat pads and everyone individually looks worse than they are.

They still get PP and most importantly, retention at TDL only for the Avs or Vegas or Rangers or Panthers

 

[horner]

To SJ: Marner, Liljegrenand Kamph

To To: Ferraro, their 2nd 1st, their 2nd 2nd.

Marner won't go to SJ a rebuilding team
Would you
It will be the top 5 teams to win a cup
Take a look at what teams Tkachuk picked to go to
I would be absolutely shocked if he went to a bottom team

 

[Legion34]

If Marner wants 8 yrs and over 12mil and be on a winning team.
I think it is best for him to play on a crappy team, then he can boast up his points and get traded to a contender with 75% retention. Win the Cup and have the team do a sign and trade to get 8 yrs while giving a mid rounder to the team who won him a Cup. Everybody wins.

Where is this team he is supposed to go to? As a ufa