GDT: Trades & Free Agency -- Off-season edition

[Gallagbi]

Dallas has a chance to upgrade from Stankoven to Marner for a 1st and 2.2M in additional cap space. That would be pretty tempting. They'd also be set up really well to re-sign Marner. They have a ton of contracts coming off the books in 2025.

Give me Couturier over Tavares all day long. Couturier's offense obviously isn't as strong but he is still very good defensively. He would look very good on a 2nd line between Knies and Nylander and you wouldn't have to shelter the line.

Couts is signed for an eternity

Think Tre tries to imitate the Klingberg signing with Montour.

They're very different D

 

[kb]

You could say that about any team. "Why would they?" Probably because they want a good player to finally get out of the basement? Having a million prospects is great but at some point, you have to take the next step. They could very well just take the risk and hope Marner re-signs if it works out for them.

It's also likely whoever trades for him if traded will have had talks with his agent to get an idea of what they want and if they can re-up as of July 1st.

Marner will choose where he wants to go if the Leafs push for it but he won't be able to go to a great team probably because of his salary, so as Luongo once said "My contract sucks". Maybe he'll want to just go anywhere that works for the Leafs as long as the city is great.

You can say that about any team - true. But it also doesn't make my point any less true.

Is Marner re-upping with a bottom feeder - even for huge $$$? I think we all know the answer to that. No chance in hell.

So take the bottom 10 off the table. Now take the top-10 out of the picture too, as they would have to make too many corresponding moves and almost all of them are in cap hell.

The only way a trade is made is if the Leafs take on cap ballast that will be damn near unmovable, which in and of itself is taking the Leafs backwards, so it's absolutely pointless.

If anything.....let him walk after next season. The last thing the Leafs need is to take back bad contracts just to get rid of a 90 point player in his prime. Seattle is probably the only team I can think of that might be able to get a deal done with.

 

[Legion34]

Depends on what happens all around. If Marner won’t waive, then I think we need to get creative (I expect Marner will want to get away from Toronto at this point though).

If Tavares doesn’t want to waive, he could get some good PR by extending at a low rate and passing along the captaincy to Matthews. I’d like to get creative if possible within the CBA to bring him back cheaper ASAP. But I realize that it a stretch.

It’s clear to me that we need a 2C who can keep up. Tavares as 3C is fine, maybe even mentoring Minten through on his wing… although I think Minten needs some AHL seasoning first.

Both Utah and Seattle strike me as good fits for Marner. Both organizations could use an established star. They need to establish market success by reaching playoffs. Marner will help them do that and I think he can succeed outside of the Toronto spotlight.

A package around Wright would be good. Theres a responsible 2C for the future.

I think that’s what happens with JT.
He signs a low cap hit (maybe 4 x4?) and stays on as a 3rd line role player. That’s going to rehab his image

I know it sounds crazy but if Marner wants to stay and extend for the Willy deal I think you do it.

I personally think it’s best for both sides to move on but if he really wants to go through this debacle over and over again and takes a reasonable deal. A 12.5% aav does that.

He has to have learned from his last contract or he will just want out

 

[SprDaVE]

You can say that about any team - true. But it also doesn't make my point any less true.

Is Marner re-upping with a bottom feeder - even for huge $$$? I think we all know the answer to that. No chance in hell.

So take the bottom 10 off the table. Now take the top-10 out of the picture too, as they would have to make too many corresponding moves and almost all of them are in cap hell.

The only way a trade is made is if the Leafs take on cap ballast that will be damn near unmovable, which in and of itself is taking the Leafs backwards, so it's absolutely pointless.

If anything.....let him walk after next season. The last thing the Leafs need is to take back bad contracts just to get rid of a 90 point player in his prime. Seattle is probably the only team I can think of that might be able to get a deal done with.

I don't disagree that it will likely be a situation like that. But I think there's a chance that Marner wants to move on just as much as the Leafs want to make a change. A team like Utah might be more than fine to risk adding a Marner without an extension guarantee. They need to make a splash and get support behind a new team and maybe that's how they do it. It's unlikely but I can see it.

There are better teams better suited to absorb Marner and give him a chance to be the guy and also be part of a really good team. Nashville and Seattle come to mind. But it's not impossible to make something happen even with Marners UFA status fast approaching. This is why Treliving gets paid the big bucks... right? If he isn't up for it, then we chose the wrong guy.

 

[LeafParade]

How much would Montour cost?

I do not really care about balancing the cap across the roster next year properly.

I just want pieces in place for 2025. Try to solve all the problems in one year seems a bit insane. Plus, I think they need to sort out the young wingers in the pipeline.

It has to be a 2 year plan.

 

[SprDaVE]

How much would Montour cost?

I do not really care about balancing the cap across the roster next year properly.

I just want pieces in place for 2025. Try to solve all the problems in one year seems a bit insane. Plus, I think they need to sort out the young wingers in the pipeline.

It has to be a 2 year plan.

I'm gonna go with 5-6-7y x 6M. It will cost a lot of term I suspect to get him. But I said the same about Orlov and he only signed a 2 year deal... I don't know. Either way, I think a range of 5.5M to 6.5M for Montour is more or less what I expect.

 

[LeafParade]

I'm gonna go with 5-6-7y x 6M. It will cost a lot of term I suspect to get him. But I said the same about Orlov and he only signed a 2 year deal... I don't know. Either way, I think a range of 5.5M to 6.5M for Montour is more or less what I expect.

The cap hits do not scare me that much, it is the years. Once these players are north of 35 it seems like your are asking for trouble.

I suspect the salary cap will increase alot in the next 3 years now that covid is behind us.

 

[wingman75]

Depends on what happens all around. If Marner won’t waive, then I think we need to get creative (I expect Marner will want to get away from Toronto at this point though).

If Tavares doesn’t want to waive, he could get some good PR by extending at a low rate and passing along the captaincy to Matthews. I’d like to get creative if possible within the CBA to bring him back cheaper ASAP. But I realize that it a stretch.

It’s clear to me that we need a 2C who can keep up. Tavares as 3C is fine, maybe even mentoring Minten through on his wing… although I think Minten needs some AHL seasoning first.

Both Utah and Seattle strike me as good fits for Marner. Both organizations could use an established star. They need to establish market success by reaching playoffs. Marner will help them do that and I think he can succeed outside of the Toronto spotlight.

A package around Wright would be good. Theres a responsible 2C for the future.

Interesting, on Leafs Talk last night Bournie made a comment that Kyper made reference recently that if this season ends in round one, Marner might be looking for a change. If true, that would be great news. We still lose the trade, but no retention is the key here. Assume Kyper is connected to Marner's family or agent in some way through indirect back channels.

I think those destinations make the most sense for a guy like Marner, considering the market.

 

[SprDaVE]

The cap hits do not scare me that much, it is the years. Once these players are north of 35 it seems like your are asking for trouble.

I suspect the salary cap will increase alot in the next 3 years now that covid is behind us.

Ideally 3-4 years is a perfect term . He'll be 33-34 years old when his deal is up.

 

[Mitch nylander]

If Marner goes it'll be to a team that needs to make change or a team looking to make the next step.

Category 1
LA
Winnipeg

Category 2
Utah
Seattle

-----------------

Category 1 - Change of Scenery + small add.

• Ehlers + Prospect (Barlow/Chibrikov)
• Kempe + Matt Roy UFA rights

Category 2 - Likely prospect packages

• Daniil But + Jack McBain + 1st
• Shane Wright + Ville Ottavainen + 2nd

 

[LeafParade]

Ideally 3-4 years is a perfect term . He'll be 33-34 years old when his deal is up.

I am looking at free agent D who are willing to do deals until 33 or 34. Beyond that, I start looking at other ufa.

 

[Apex Predator]

Marner is in complete control of where he goes which will hurt the value. Just curious what some out there would like to see in a Marner trade. The leafs will have to take contracts on to make the salary work.

 

[Commander Clueless]

Marner is in complete control of where he goes which will hurt the value. Just curious what some out there would like to see in a Marner trade. The leafs will have to take contracts on to make the salary work.

We aren't "winning" a Marner trade.

We might end up a better team with multiple moves that a Marner trade could open up, but we ain't getting the same value back.

 

[Apex Predator]

We aren't "winning" a Marner trade.

We might end up a better team with multiple moves that a Marner trade could open up, but we ain't getting the same value back.

I agree and people need to start to prepare any trade won’t look like a win from the start. I hope the trade with the pieces and cap space spread will hopefully make the team better.

 

[Commander Clueless]

I agree and people need to start to prepare any trade won’t look like a win from the start. I hope the trade with the pieces and cap space spread will hopefully make the team better.

It might also totally blow up in our face, but I think you have to do SOMETHING at this point. It obviously isn't working.

We should all definitely prepare for Mitch to go somewhere else and absolutely light it up, and light US up. It's not going to be fun.

But it might be worth it. Maybe.

 

[Sypher04]

Marner is in complete control of where he goes which will hurt the value. Just curious what some out there would like to see in a Marner trade. The leafs will have to take contracts on to make the salary work.

I doubt either Tavares or Marner allow us to trade them.

 

[Apex Predator]

I doubt either Tavares or Marner allow us to trade them.

Marner is being destroyed and he pays attention to social media. I think he sees the writing on the wall.

 

[TheShape]

It might also totally blow up in our face, but I think you have to do SOMETHING at this point. It obviously isn't working.

We should all definitely prepare for Mitch to go somewhere else and absolutely light it up, and light US up. It's not going to be fun.

But it might be worth it. Maybe.

Good for Marner if he does, he's never going to be that player for US. So who cares.

 

[123offtheglass]

Really hard to find a fit for a good Marner trade considering:

• The NMC - where would he want to go?
• 1 year left @ 10.9m
• How does he fit their cap structure & culture?
• Who's he coming in to supplement?
• Where he slots on the receiving teams Powerplay?

And then what are the Leafs getting that they're not just getting obliterated in this trade?

Tampa has attractive pieces (Hagel, Cirelli, Cernak, Stamkos pending UFA) but I really don't see a team like them targeting a guy like Marner... Kucherov is already the guy that stirs the drink there too. Maybe if Stamkos contract talks sour...?

Same could be said for Florida, although I think there's a potential fit here. Biggest question would be, do they think he'd buy into their brand of hockey? Maybe Tkachuk would know, there's the London Knights connection. As much as I'd want Bennett as part of that deal, I'd guess the pieces could be along the lines of Knight & Lundell; Montour too should be a sought after UFA target for the Leafs if available.

Dougie Hamilton from New Jersey could make sense with Luke Hughes emerging for them, but they've already got Hughes & Bratt; doubt there's a great fit for Marner there.

From St. Louis you could look some combination from Parayko, Kyrou, Buchnevich, Hofer, futures. Parayko has rebounded & we know he'd fit well with Rielly at least.

Nashville makes a ton of sense with a deal around Saros or Askarov. They've got lots of picks & they're flooded with good young NHL or close to NHL ready players. They're retooling & starving for offensive punch, relying way too much on Josi & Forsberg to drive their offense.

Utah makes a ton of sense as well, maybe the most, with Crouse, Durzi, Ingram & the boatload of draft capital & cap space they have to make the move. That's as fresh a start as you could get for Marner, & it sounds like their new owner Ryan Smith is going to be aggressive this offseason.

If I'm Treliving, I'm looking to sell Marner on Utah, then offering Marner (with extension) & Liljegren for:

• Crouse LW/RW (3 years @ 4.3m)
• Ingram G (2 years @ 1.95m)
• Lamoureux RHD (3 years ELC @ <1m)
• 2024 2nd
• 2x 2025 2nd

Then Crouse, Robertson (RFA), 2x 2025 2nd for:

• Dougie Hamilton RHD (5 years @ 9m)

New Jersey can use picks/futures to get Markstrom or another goalie finally.

 

[Zero1]

Ducks have come out and said they want a top-6 RW and I feel like it’s a place Marner would go to as well. I’m not sure what a deal looks like though.

 

[SprDaVE]

Ducks have come out and said they want a top-6 RW and I feel like it’s a place Marner would go to as well. I’m not sure what a deal looks like though.

Gibson and the Anaheim first round pick for Marner? Maybe throw in a nice Jarnkrok? Maybe? I dunno.

 

[Commander Clueless]

Good for Marner if he does, he's never going to be that player for US. So who cares.

You know we'll be hearing about it endlessly if/when it happens.

 

[Gallagbi]

Gibson and the Anaheim first round pick for Marner? Maybe throw in a nice Jarnkrok? Maybe? I dunno.

Gibson's numbers are horrific

 

[SprDaVE]

Gibson's numbers are horrific

Yep... Yep they are. But he plays a lot and that Ducks team has been brutal for a long time. Lyubushkin looked awful on that team too and did much better here. Goaltenders are voodoo so who knows. I can't say I've watched him much so I could be wrong, but I think he could do well here under a much better structure and team.

It's a huge risk for sure.

 

[Zero1]

Gibson and the Anaheim first round pick for Marner? Maybe throw in a nice Jarnkrok? Maybe? I dunno.

No way, man. Gibson is terrible. I really want one of their many centres. Zegras is probably the most likely but he’s apparently not that good…