GDT: Trades & Free Agency -- Off-season edition

[seanlinden]

Marner for Dobson please

Not sure the Islanders do that, but that would probably be an absolute home run for the Leafs.

Call me crazy, but I'd be somewhat comfortable running with a D of
McCabe-Dobson
Rielly-Lyubushkin
Benoit-Liljegren

I'd imagine you want one more...maybe that's Joel Edmundson....maybe it's somebody else. As for Connor Timmins, not sure it really matters.

 

[Americanadian]

Deal 1:

Stars probably tell Toronto to f*** off

Stankoven is 21 and looks to be a gamer. Not on the table for marner imo

Deal 2: Leafs tell Philly to f***off

Couturier is worse than Tavares with a gross deal

I like moving both guys

However aim lower for Marner and for Tavares retain 3M of needed but get back no long term committments the other wau

Dallas has a chance to upgrade from Stankoven to Marner for a 1st and 2.2M in additional cap space. That would be pretty tempting. They'd also be set up really well to re-sign Marner. They have a ton of contracts coming off the books in 2025.

Give me Couturier over Tavares all day long. Couturier's offense obviously isn't as strong but he is still very good defensively. He would look very good on a 2nd line between Knies and Nylander and you wouldn't have to shelter the line.

 

[Rielly4]

Id want Harley and Stank/Johnston for Marner.

 

[IrishInOntario]

I don't think the Tavares contract is going to be moveable without substantial value added to it, so instead, I'd rather just push him down the lineup into a full time 3C role. After next year he'll either be on a sweetheart contract or he'll be shipped out of town.

For me this is what it would look like.

Moving out...
Brendan Shanahan
Sheldon Keefe
Mitch Marner ($10.9 million)
Ryan Reaves ($1.3 million)
TJ Brodie ($5.0 million)
Ilya Samsonov ($3.55 million)
David Kampf ($2.4 million)
Connor Timmins ($1.1 million)
Mark Giordano ($800k)
Illya Lyubushkin ($700k)

2024-2025 Leafs

Forwards
1C Auston Matthews ($13,250,000)
2C Addition ($5,000,000)
3C John Tavares ($11,000,000)
4C Pontus Holmberg ($800,000)

1LW Tyler Bertuzzi ($5,500,000)
2LW Matthews Knies ($925,000)
3LW Bobby McMann ($1,300,000)
4LW Nick Robertson ($1,200,000)

1RW Max Domi ($4,000,000)
2RW William Nylander ($11,500,000)
3RW Calle Jarnkrok ($2,100,000)
4RW Connor Dewar (1,000,000)

13th Forward ($800,000)

Defense
1LD Morgan Rielly ($7,500,000)
2LD Addition ($3,000,000)
3LD Simon Benoit ($1,300,000)

1RD Addition ($6,500,000)
2RD Timothy Liljegren ($3,000,000)
3RD Jake McCabe ($2,000,000)

7th Defenseman ($800,000)

Goalies
Joseph Woll ($767,000)
Addition ($2,500,000)

Total Cap Hit: $87,700,000

 

[Americanadian]

Id want Harley and Stank/Johnston for Marner.

The only issue with that proposal is Dallas gets a say in any trades they are involved in.

 

[Green Snow Storm]

The only issue with that proposal is Dallas gets a say in any trades they are involved in.

Yeah Wyatt Johnston is a no go for sure.

 

[Americanadian]

If Treliving asks Rielly to waive I’d think Utah makes a ton of sense. Young team that wants to get better quickly. A Rielly for Crouse swap would make sense for both teams.

 

[Kiwi]

If we're going to trade guys I think we need to get younger

We have young talent on the roster and on the way through the organization, we need guys who fit with them and keep the Matthew's Nylander Domi types to play with them

I've had enough of old guys, let's go after some young defenseman and centers with ceilings and grow them

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Need to do a soft reboot/rebuild at least if you can't convince Mitch to waive and we know Tavares and his contract aren't going anywhere. Still too much cap tied up in a guy that disappears when the games matter most and a guy who just doesn't have it anymore due to age.

Get Minten and potentially Cowan up here and give them the season to learn and grow, warts and all. Increase the roles of Knies, McMann, and Robertson too. Rielly, McCabe, and Benoit will remain on defence, don't particularly care about Liljegren one way or the other right now, I suppose if he's cheap keep him. No idea what to do with Timmins. He's still under contract and he always trips his way into points so an extended look may be in order, again warts and all. Niemela is our "best" defenseman prospect but after the steady stream of small stature guys in Dermott, Liljegren, Sandin, and Hollowell who did nothing for us I'm really not all that interested in him as a player, especially after having Benoit fall into our laps and seeing him have a bigger and better impact on this team than any of those guys just by virtue of being 6'4" and a son of a bitch to play against. Oh and Cade Webber is now a person we've got here, he's a massive dude, good defensively (in college at least), and shoots left. Could be a fine enough Edmundson replacement going forward if not right away.

Would love to make Woll the full time starter but he'll probably get himself hurt bending wrong so I'm not entirely sure how viable he is going forward. Samsonov is done here and he can take his erratic play and mind somewhere else. Laurent Brossoit would be a great target as a backup/insurance, outside of him the goalie free agent market is really gross so we better hope we can win his sweepstakes.

Defence needs at least one more guy that can move the puck, probably two. Rielly had a relatively poor season and a dismal playoff and Liljegren hasn't shown to be that guy. Montour is the best guy on the market for that, shoots right, and is a good Ontario boy, but I doubt he'll leave the Panthers for us, and even if he did he'd be looking at like an $8 million AAV here, while in Florida he'll probably sign for $2 million less than that and after taxes would take home the same amount. Sean Walker is a UFA, he's small but at least he's proven to be a capable puck mover at the NHL level. Pesce would be a good target as a capable shutdown RHD, Tanev would likely be cheaper but at 34 who knows how much he's got left in him.

Don't particularly care to target UFA forwards, lack of cap space is already going to make it difficult to build a new defence corps and find another goalie, not to mention we've got lots of young forward prospects who could be capable of making an impact. I wouldn't mind Domi returning if it's at a similar cap hit but despite his passion I'm not married to him. Same with Bertuzzi, liked his battling with Marchand and he came on strong to end the season but he'll likely price himself out and he only had a so-so postseason. No one else listed as a UFA really interests me.

This is the roster with called up prospects, a couple re-signed RFAs, and Brossoit as the only UFA add. Oh and the projected cap of $87.7 million.

If my bullshitting estimates are close the Leafs would have roughly $8-10 million left over to either go big game hunting or spreading that out between two capable mid-level defensemen, or one defenseman and one forward. Could even increase that if the team gets brave and moves off one of Kampf or Jarnkrok this off-season. Montour would be a massive add but again I can't fathom being able to pry him out of Florida. Two of Walker and Pesce or Tanev would look good too. If there's money left over to keep Domi by all means do so but it'd be a tight squeeze.

Really what this franchise has to do is bide time while Tavares and Marner (if you can't convince Mitch to waive his NMC) run out their contracts so that money can be used elsewhere. Jump starting the careers of the next wave of young Leafs would also be a good objective. They'll hopefully have more jam and clutch factor in their games than this last bunch we brought up (minus Willy, the only guy with an ounce of capability in high pressure moments). We're already seeing the beginnings of a playoff performer with Knies, Dewar and Holmberg each had good a series, and Benoit has shown to be a real gamer. Getting another full season under their belts plus potentially a full year for Minten and Cowan will have us set up nicely when we can really start making moves for 25-26 and they aren't full on inexperienced rookies.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Marner (10.9) to Seattle for Larsson (4M) + Gourde (5.1M) + Shane Wright (900K).

 

[Conan]

If we get rid of Marner or Tavares contracts and get negative value. I would be all over the Stamkos sweepstakes. If you watch TB/FLA series…. They way played in the playoffs.

 

[613Leafer]

If we're going to trade guys I think we need to get younger

We have young talent on the roster and on the way through the organization, we need guys who fit with them and keep the Matthew's Nylander Domi types to play with them

I've had enough of old guys, let's go after some young defenseman and centers with ceilings and grow them

Yea, I think when moving Marner, we need to be open to taking a step back next year. If retaining salary gets us decently better value, do it. If getting picks/prospects gets us better value than if we're trying to get guys who could immediately help in 2024, do it.

In 2025, the Tavares $$ will also be off the books, giving us significant flexibility. There's also a good chance Cowen, Grebenkin, and/or Minten will be filling moderately import roles (eg middle 6 wingers and 3rd line C) for us for very cheap, also giving us further flexibility. But next year, it's unlikely that group would have much impact.

We're at the tail end of our competitive window - we've blown through 8 years with this core, have a fairly thin farm system, etc. Need to build it back up, but with a different vision.

 

[613Leafer]

Not sure the Islanders do that, but that would probably be an absolute home run for the Leafs.

Call me crazy, but I'd be somewhat comfortable running with a D of
McCabe-Dobson
Rielly-Lyubushkin
Benoit-Liljegren

I'd imagine you want one more...maybe that's Joel Edmundson....maybe it's somebody else. As for Connor Timmins, not sure it really matters.

Marner isn't waiving for the Islanders, and I don't think they move Dobson who has another year at 4M then RFA status, for Marner who has another year at 11M and then UFA status.

If the Islanders want to make a big move, they're much more likely to move Pulock or Pelech.

 

[Fogelhund]

Over our last 11 games this year, only two players scored more than 2 goals. That would by Nylander with three and Tavares with Six.

I get it’s popular to crap on JT, and he certainly doesn’t provide value for his contract, but our failure isn’t strictly on him and he’ll likely be willing to extend fairly cheaply.

But it is likely Marner needs to be moved.

 

[Leaffan1991]

Maybe a Marner package to Utah for Crouse, Geekie and Lamoureux

Saves us cap and we get a great power forward and then two high end prospects that can play sooner than later

 

[horner]

Maybe a Marner package to Utah for Crouse, Geekie and Lamoureux

Saves us cap and we get a great power forward and then two high end prospects that can play sooner than later

NMCif he wants to go he will pick his destination

 

[horner]

Yea, I think when moving Marner, we need to be open to taking a step back next year. If retaining salary gets us decently better value, do it. If getting picks/prospects gets us better value than if we're trying to get guys who could immediately help in 2024, do it.

In 2025, the Tavares $$ will also be off the books, giving us significant flexibility. There's also a good chance Cowen, Grebenkin, and/or Minten will be filling moderately import roles (eg middle 6 wingers and 3rd line C) for us for very cheap, also giving us further flexibility. But next year, it's unlikely that group would have much impact.

We're at the tail end of our competitive window - we've blown through 8 years with this core, have a fairly thin farm system, etc. Need to build it back up, but with a different vision.

Remember our 1st rd pk was traded next yr

 

[Tony Romo]

If I had to guess Marner will probably waive his NMC, just depends on where. no idea on values and probably pipe dreams but

Marner for Schmaltz + Crouse
Marner for Konency + Laughton/Frost.

 

[Mitch nylander]

How about Nikolaj Ehlers + Colby Barlow

Ehlers has been an equally as bad no show, Winnipeg needs major changes. Marner is a better player than Ehlers. Both expire this summer. The key is you still add a pretty darn good player, and you gain 5 mill cap space.

Use the cap space to sign a defender.

 

[MSZ]

If we get rid of Marner or Tavares contracts and get negative value. I would be all over the Stamkos sweepstakes. If you watch TB/FLA series…. They way played in the playoffs.

Look at the way the Leafs setup on the PP, if no one has the skillset to pass the puck to Stamkos for his one-timers he is pretty much useless here.

 

[TMLAM34]

Marner needs to be traded. Run the kid out of town, I don’t care. He just needs to go.

 

[613Leafer]

Remember our 1st rd pk was traded next yr

I wouldn't expect us to be a lottery team just because we move Marner and mostly focus on trying to build for 2025. And even if it were, it's top 10 protected.

 

[pspot]

How about Nikolaj Ehlers + Colby Barlow

Ehlers has been an equally as bad no show, Winnipeg needs major changes. Marner is a better player than Ehlers. Both expire this summer. The key is you still add a pretty darn good player, and you gain 5 mill cap space.

Use the cap space to sign a defender.

Pionk and Barron are two guys to target with Winnipeg

Won’t be popular but I think old would be an interesting target too. He owned the leafs in the Columbus series , he can play with an edge , big fwd that can play all three positions . Just weather he can fall in line and compete every night …under a microscope

 

[wingman75]

I don't think the Tavares contract is going to be moveable without substantial value added to it, so instead, I'd rather just push him down the lineup into a full time 3C role. After next year he'll either be on a sweetheart contract or he'll be shipped out of town.

For me this is what it would look like.

Moving out...
Brendan Shanahan
Sheldon Keefe
Mitch Marner ($10.9 million)
Ryan Reaves ($1.3 million)
TJ Brodie ($5.0 million)
Ilya Samsonov ($3.55 million)
David Kampf ($2.4 million)
Connor Timmins ($1.1 million)
Mark Giordano ($800k)
Illya Lyubushkin ($700k)

2024-2025 Leafs

Forwards
1C Auston Matthews ($13,250,000)
2C Addition ($5,000,000)
3C John Tavares ($11,000,000)
4C Pontus Holmberg ($800,000)

1LW Tyler Bertuzzi ($5,500,000)
2LW Matthews Knies ($925,000)
3LW Bobby McMann ($1,300,000)
4LW Nick Robertson ($1,200,000)

1RW Max Domi ($4,000,000)
2RW William Nylander ($11,500,000)
3RW Calle Jarnkrok ($2,100,000)
4RW Connor Dewar (1,000,000)

13th Forward ($800,000)

Defense
1LD Morgan Rielly ($7,500,000)
2LD Addition ($3,000,000)
3LD Simon Benoit ($1,300,000)

1RD Addition ($6,500,000)
2RD Timothy Liljegren ($3,000,000)
3RD Jake McCabe ($2,000,000)

7th Defenseman ($800,000)

Goalies
Joseph Woll ($767,000)
Addition ($2,500,000)

Total Cap Hit: $87,700,000

I don't see why Domi or Bertuzzi would stay.

 

[LeafsFan89]

Obviously changes need to happen. But changes should only be done if it makes the team better. Selling a player nickels one the dime, would be just as bad as keeping them.

It sucks we lost, but we better make smart moves, not rash moves.

I disagree. I would rather get peanuts back for Marner or JT if they decide to waive their NMC, than let them walk for absolutely nothing and have another finish like this year... and last year, and the year before, year before that, year before that, year before that ,year before that, and the year before that....

If we essentially run it back, we waste another year of Matthews and Nylander's prime. Plus the first year of change is going to be rough because the remaining players will have to adapt to a completely new system.