Speculation: Trade Speculation / Untouchable players

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IcedCapp

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Aug 7, 2009
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Last year, as we approached the trade deadline (in our pursuit of Iginla) I created a post discussing the "regrettability" factor in trading any of the Penguins players.

Basically, "how much would/could we regret this in the future." I'm doing it again this year but combining it with a topic that's been pretty "hot" the past few weeks: untouchable players. This is obviously speculative on our part, since we can't know exactly what the organization is thinking, but ... who cares!

Regrettable Scale: 1 (Craig Adams) - 10 (James Neal)

The untouchables

1. Sidney Crosby/Evgeni Malkin (1000000) - Both untouchable, neither will be traded, both would make you regret it in the morning.

2. James Neal (10) - There are few wingers in the league better than James Neal, and maybe none better for Evgeni Malkin's RW. He's a 40-goal scorer and a PPG player who has not only shown a remarkable scoring touch and chemistry with Malkin, but has taken the next step in improving his grit and physicality.

Not Untouchable, but pretty darn close

3. Olli Maatta - (9) Already in the NHL at age 19, the kid has the physical tools and hockey IQ that could see him playing top-pairing minutes in the not-so-distant future. His age, skill set and contract combine to make him one of the most-valuable assets in the organization, and not one they will be in a hurry to move.

4. Kris Letang - (8.5) One of the most physically gifted players in the NHL, Letang's issues - if there are any - are between the ears. One of the most polarizing players among fans, Letang has the ability to turn defense into offense as fast as anyone in the league. While the Pens are rich in defensive prospects, they don't have anyone like Letang waiting in the wings.

A big part in his ranking is his regrettability score. If Letang were to be traded to another team and that team was able to reign him in, turning him into a 60pt d-man who can bring a consistent defensive game and physical edge? It would be worse than any fleecing Shero has pulled off.

5. Paul Martin (8) - While not as flashy as Letang, many would argue that Martin is the Penguins' best defenseman. A steady player who can play 25-minutes+ a game while shutting down the opposition's top lines AND providing a calming presence on the top PP unit, Martin went from whipping boy to underpaid in just over a season.

Martin's regrettability score is not based in the fact that he would move on to become a better player, but simply the fact that he is one of the Penguins' best, and losing him would leave a gigantic hole on the back-end.

6. Chris Kunitz (8) - Similar to Martin- Kunitz's RS is based on the hole he'd leave on the roster if the Penguins were to move him. At 34 he's likely about to hit a downturn in performance, but for now, he's likely the "Crosby's Neal" everyone has been pining for.

7. Beau Bennett (8) - Perhaps an awkward inclusion for some, Bennett's inability to stay on the ice has tarnished him in the eyes of some Penguins fans.

When healthy, Bennett has proven that he can not only play the RW with Crosby or the LW with Malkin, but look like he belongs while doing it. His smarts, responsible play and grittiness make him effective on any line, but his hockey IQ and creativity make him a perfect, much-needed match for the two superstar centers.

Moving Bennett would be filling one hole and creating another.

8. Derrick Pouliot (8) - Pouliot showed why the Penguins drafted him so high at the WJC, where he was Canada's best player over the course of the tournament.

PPQB, smart, good decision making, a good shot, and not an abject failure in his own end, Pouliot will bring something to the Penguins back end that they haven't had since Sergai Gonchar ole'd his way to Ottawa.

9. Scott Harrington (8) - Smart, great awareness, good skating, good along the boards. Harrington will likely never light the world on fire, but he should be the perfect replacement for Rob Scuderi down the road.

Touchable, but only for the right price

10. Simon Despres (8) - big, strong, physical, good skater. Whatever. My love for Despres is well-documented. I'd have him in the previous tier, but I don't think the Penguins feel the same way, and I'm trying to keep this fair/"honest."

11. Brandon Sutter (6) - As with Neal, Kunitz, Bennett - Sutter has good value and would likely be coveted by more than one team, but moving him for a winger would only create another hole at 3C. Some would argue that's a fair trade, but it's likely one that Ray Shero isn't interested in pursuing. I don't have Sutter's RS as high, simply because I think he is what he is: a good 3rd-line center. I don't think there's any untapped potential there. The team DOES need to help him out with better wingers, though.

12. Brian Dumoulin (8) - So I haven't been all that impressed with what I've seen from Dumoulin, but the team and many observers have been. He's big (6'3, 200lbs) and a good skater. He doesn't have a mean streak (though I'm sure he could develop) and the team trusts him on the PK and the PP. This score and position is a mix of my thoughts (i'd have him lower) and the team's thoughts (they'd likely have him higher).

13. Matt Niskanen (6) - A throwaway before the season, Niskanen has shown that, while he shouldn't be counted on to be a consistent top-4 guy, he's able to occasionally flash a brilliant performance. I have his RS this high because while moving him would allow someone I want to see play (Bortuzzo) to get into the lineup, Niskanen provides nice depth in the even of injuries to Martin and Letang. He's able to step up on the PP, he's not soft, and he can move the puck.

The biggest questions around Niskanen will be answered in the playoffs.

14. Brooks Orpik (4) - a veteran leader and a physical presence, Bruce has been a fixture on the Penguins back end since before the league was founded. To many, Orpik seems to be on the tail end of his career (and falling rapidly), but it's clear that the team (and others around the league) still hold him in high regard. Moving him would likely open up the spot for a cheaper, younger, better player, and I don't see him going on to anothert team and making a huge difference, but ... okay.

15. Robert Bortuzzo (6) - Bort will never put up big offensive numbers, but he is big, physical, and has a lovely mean streak. That, combined with his skating ability, make him ideal to be the eventual replacement for someone like Brooks Orpik. Given his age and contract status, I think losing Bort would likely be more regrettable than losing someone like Orpik. I also think Bortuzzo can continue to get better with playing time.

Touch, PLEASE!!!!

16. Jussi Jokinen (5) - A consistent player who provided some much-needed offense leading up to the playoffs in 2012, Jokinen has been a perfectly acceptable player on the Penguins roster. But he's a soon-to-be UFA who won't get a sniff on Crosby's line, isn't ideal for Malkin's line and doesn't have enough grit for Sutter's line, so the Penguins will likely move on from him in the off-season rather than pay him $3MM to be an awkward fit on a roster in need of some tweaking. I'm not sure Jokinen has much value to begin with, but if the right deal came along, I'm sure the Pens would pursue it.

17. Tanner Glass, Craig Adams (-10) - **** off


Not mentioned:

Marc-Andre Fleury (???) - He has value, but the Penguins cannot move him. Maybe they look to Ryan Miller in the off-season, but for the rest of this season, Fleury's presence on the roster is as necessary as anyone's.

Rob Scuderi (5) - I didn't want Scuderi brought in in the first place, and I don't think, to-date, he's proven me wrong, but he (along with the rest of the defense) has been injured for much of the season, so what I'll say is this: the Penguins just signed him. They aren't trading him.

The Goalie Prospects (???) - I don't know much about them, because they aren't biscuit-minded goal scorer things, so I don't pay attention, but the team made a concerted effort to improve organizational depth at G. They aren't going to move it now.

JOE VICTORY (1,000,000,000,000,000) - No point in moving him, really. And unlike years past, Vitale has earned Bylsma's trust, centering the 4th line, getting time at 1RW, playing on the 3rd line, etc... He's cheap, he's great at face-offs, and he's a ball of energy. Perfect 4th liner.

Megna, Gibbons, Conner, Sill, Zolnierczyk - The Pens AHL depth has been vital to their successes this year. They likely don't have a lot of value league-wide, so it would be prudent to keep them around (especially Gibbons and Megna) to see just how high their ceilings can go.
 
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Speaking Moistly

What a terrible image.
Feb 19, 2013
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Odd that there isn't an ode to Despres here. I agree with the method; value of the player to the Pens vs what they could get for them is also something that should be considered.

I think the regret value for Letang would depend heavily on where he was traded. If we, say, traded him for Eberle the Oilers probably wouldn't turn him into a player that would make us regret it. They'd let him be worse than he is here.
 

Murdoc27

Registered User
Aug 14, 2013
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Great opening post. Only person I don't agree with you on is Letang. He is not worth his upcoming contract in my eyes. He would be the piece that brings us the wing help that we need. He is valuable but I just don't see him as an absolute need on this team.
 

Winger for Hire

Praise Beebo
Dec 9, 2013
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I keep holding out hope that Brooks gets traded, but I really think in Shero's trade value ranking Brooks is between Kunitz and Bennett.

I really would like to know what the other GMs around the league value Orpik at. We have seen him play every game for his career and seen his highs and now his lows. My value of him is pretty low. I keep seeing people agreeing that Kulemin can be gotten with Orpik. I personally would mark that down as a steal by the Pens.
 

IcedCapp

Registered User
Aug 7, 2009
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Okay, all done for now. Let me know if you want someone added (I didn't include every AHL depth guy) or what you think is wrong.

I know that Letang will be a polarizing position, but I put him where I think he fits in with the organization.
 

Sideline

Registered User
May 23, 2004
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The fact that Orpik made the US Olympic team tells me NHL people still think he has value. This miss perception should be exploited.
 

Jag68Sid87

Sullivan gots to go!
Oct 1, 2003
35,590
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Virtually nobody will agree with my list...

Untouchables:
Crosby
Malkin
Neal
Maatta
Despres
Bennett
1st round pick in 2014
1st round pick in 2015
2nd round pick in 2015

Hesitate to deal but if we must:
Scuderi
Bortuzzo
Pouliot
Dumoulin
Samuelsson
Kunitz
Sutter
Megna
Gibbons
Sill
Uher
Dea
Blueger
Sundqvist
Byron
Archibald
Kuhnhackl
Guentzel
Harrington
Ruopp
S. Wilson
Jarry
Zatkoff
All other draft picks

I'd be fine trading:
Letang
Martin
Fleury
Jokinen
Engelland
Vitale
Zlobin
Farnham
PLLL
Marcantuoni
Murray
Maguire
Hartzell

Please get rid of, best offer wins:
Dupuis
Orpik
Niskanen
Adams
Glass
Pyatt
Conner
Ebbett
Kobasew


I think I covered most of the assets in the organization, the relevant ones anyway.
 

Til the End of Time

Registered User
May 18, 2003
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Virtually nobody will agree with my list...

Untouchables:
Crosby
Malkin
Neal
Maatta
Despres
Bennett
1st round pick in 2014
1st round pick in 2015
2nd round pick in 2015

Hesitate to deal but if we must:
Scuderi
Bortuzzo
Pouliot
Dumoulin
Samuelsson
Kunitz
Sutter
Megna
Gibbons
Sill
Uher
Dea
Blueger
Sundqvist
Byron
Archibald
Kuhnhackl
Guentzel
Harrington
Ruopp
S. Wilson
Jarry
Zatkoff
All other draft picks

I'd be fine trading:
Letang
Martin
Fleury
Jokinen
Engelland
Vitale
Zlobin
Farnham
PLLL
Marcantuoni
Murray
Maguire
Hartzell

Please get rid of, best offer wins:
Dupuis
Orpik
Niskanen
Adams
Glass
Pyatt
Conner
Ebbett
Kobasew


I think I covered most of the assets in the organization, the relevant ones anyway.

this would be my ideal list. unfortunately i think its very very far from reality.
 

Shady Machine

Registered User
Aug 6, 2010
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I'd put Letang around a 7. Not because he isn't the most talented defenseman, but because I believe he has by far the highest trade value so even if he becomes a consistent 2 way force, we can look back and say 'ah well, we have the a ridiculously good top 6' and Crosby's wingers for life.

With Despres and Maatta, we aren't getting back a sure thing so the risk is higher that they will become dominant defenseman and we are left with a bust of a winger.
 

wej20

Registered User
Aug 14, 2008
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UK
He's by far our most reliable dmen so I don't see a situation where we'd trade him.
 

IcedCapp

Registered User
Aug 7, 2009
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my thoughts on Letang:

not one of my 4-favorite Dmen right now, but this is a problem that's really only existed this year imo.

If he were to ever get his head right - and I'm convinced that coaching is a big reason why he hasn't - he will be one of the 5-best dmen in the league.

That's regrettable.
 

wej20

Registered User
Aug 14, 2008
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UK
Letang has proven that he can balance his defensive responsibilities with his offensive side of the game.
 

Shockmaster

Registered User
Sep 11, 2012
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Orpik has a LMC in his contract. I believe he can name up to 8 teams he would not accept a trade to. If I had to guess, these would probably be the teams he wouldn't accept a trade to:

EDM
CGY
WPG
NSH
CBJ
BUF
NYI
FLA


I think it's very, very unlikely Orpik is moved at the deadline. But even if Shero was open to the idea of moving him, which teams might be interested and what could they offer the Penguins? Orpik may not be well thought of here, but his trade value would be high and should bring back a pretty good return.
 

Mordax

You make it hard
Sep 23, 2009
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Victoria, BC
Just speculating, but I'd think trading Letang away right after he signed with us at a discount would show up badly on Shero in regards to players doing the same in the future.
 

Shady Machine

Registered User
Aug 6, 2010
36,704
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Just speculating, but I'd think trading Letang away right after he signed with us at a discount would show up badly on Shero in regards to players doing the same in the future.

7.25 per for 8 years was a discount?
 
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