It also depends on the open market. A right handed shot Dman is valuable. Who else is available that can replace or improve that position?
This is a really big factor in the whole thing. If you move Hronek...you have to replace him with someone at least as good, or better. Doesn't even necessarily have to be a guy to play with Hughes...where you might be able to get by for a year or two with a lesser player. But you can't downgrade the defence corps overall. Whether that's an even better partner for Hughes, or more likely...just someone you can lean on more to carry a 2nd pairing and "spread the wealth" more.
Getting good Top-4 RD is tough, and expensive.
Qualify and evaluate on a prove me deal
This seems like a pretty terrible option to me. I don't think there's any chance he actually signs that QO anyway, so you're locking yourself into arbitration where you lose control of the process...but putting Hronek on a one-year fast track to UFA just isn't going to end well, no matter what. At that point...you can "evaluate" all you want...but it pretty much guarantees he's going to be getting his $8M x 8 or whatever as a UFA next summer. Whether that's from the Canucks or some other desperate chumps.
You have to figure this out right now, this summer. One way or the other. While you still have a tiny measure of leverage with team control as an RFA.
I think the Canucks did themselves a bit of a disservice by not giving him a longer look on the 2nd pairing. Finding a good partner for Quinn Hughes is great but you need more than that if you want to sigh him for 8 years.
The team can't keep everyone so they need to prioritize the players who want to stay and are willing to show it with their salary demands. A couple of months ago Hronek was treated as the priority. That should no longer be the case - he had his chance.
The smart play is to qualify him and let the arbitration process play out. Even if it ends up being a situation where they just get him under contract for a year and he walks, at least they get a chance to delay a decision about his long term fit.
They definitely hurt their position in terms of leverage...by not taking an extended look at what Hronek can do
without Hughes carrying him. It's a tough situation because he clearly fits well with Hughes and allowed him to take his game to a completely different Norris caliber level. But it's awfully hard to justify a premium price on a guy riding shotgun to a superstar like that. Without really knowing what the guy is capable of doing on his own.
The whole idea of qualifying him and going through the arbitration situation seems like a bad plan though. Even if you play it through that way and can opt for the 2 years, on the assumption that it would follow-on from player elected salary arbitration because there's no way he's signing that $5.25M QO...you're just giving up so much control in the process. The arb hearings tend to get extremely toxic as well, which probably just sours the whole relationship with the player and you're going to end up mutually wanting to part ways in the near future anyway. But you're basically just kicking the can down the road in a way that could easily still cost you north of $7M anyway. While also just guaranteeing that he's going to get his $8M x 8 or whatever when he becomes a UFA in a year or two.
I think you really just have to figure out what you want to do with this player...right now. And pull the trigger.
A buyer is giving you futures. If you are a PO team, can you do that to your roster and take a player away? Really, a decision probably needs to be made in the summer. Teams heading into PO don't plan on dealing UFAs to be come TDL.
This is definitely an issue with that strategy as well. But it's also probably an issue even if you decide to trade him right now. I think it's extremely unlikely that you can pull off a real "hockey trade" swap with Hronek right now. A lot of what you'd get in offers for him is probably...futures heavy. So you then need to have a plan for how you're going to parlay those futures into a replacement for
right now.
As has been said... what is the contract...
I don't just qualify him though... I either sign with term or trade him
I think procedurally, you'd be daft not to at least qualify him. It's really just pointless paperwork at that point, if you haven't reached a long-term contract agreement by then. There's zero chance Hronek is accepting that $5.25M Qualifying Offer. He'd almost automatically be opting for salary arbitration at that point. Which opens a whole different can of worms. But i don't think there's any reason to not qualify him and give him the leverage of just walking directly to UFA this summer. Even in arbitration, he's guaranteed to be awarded something north of the "walk away" number. So worst case...you qualify him, go to arb...and then can still walk away just exactly the same as if you hadn't qualified him in the first place.
But his situation is one of these messy ones where in practical effect, he may as well be a UFA at this point. In terms of negotiation and leverage.
Which is where i think you have to decide what you're going to do with the player long-term, and just pull the trigger. Either qualify and trade him...or get a a long-term contract extension in place. One or the other.
