GDT: Trades & Free Agency

Dekes For Days

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Sep 24, 2018
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So yeah, I'd say if Samsonov put up the numbers he did last season we most likely get an extra 5-6 wins which would put us up at the top of the league.
Samsonov has the worst stats this year of our goalies, but he has the best record. This should have been an indication for you that better overall goalie stats don't automatically equal a better team record. Winning 5-4 or 5-1 has a pretty big impact on a goalie's stats, but it doesn't change anything about a team's point percentage, and all indications are that this kind of thing is what happened here, considering the spectacular 117 point pace we have had in front of Samsonov, compared to the 92 point pace we have had while getting better goaltending away from him.

It's one thing to suggest that Samsonov's struggles compared to last year could have negatively impacted us, just as we likely benefited from better goaltending than last year in the other half of games. It's quite another however to arbitrarily tack on another 12 points and hold the expectation of a 142 point pace in front of Samsonov, in order to distract from the bigger area of concern.

Winnipeg has done better than us this year, and they have the runaway best goalie this year, who has doubled the overall goaltending impact of Samsonov last year, and they have played at a 107 point pace in front of him. If we're tacking on 12 points because we went from good goaltending to above average goaltending, what bonus are we tacking on to our franchise-record season 2 years ago, when we got bad -21 GSAx goaltending? It's not that simple.
Did we? We let useless players walk
No, we let useful players walk, that some here never appreciated, and then didn't properly add what we needed. The forwards and defensemen we added to replace good defensive players and surround an influx of rookies were some of the worst in the league defensively, we left a hole in the top-4 of our defense, and we seemed to forget PKing exists. The team took a hit this year because of it.
Is it though? The cap is for the whole lineup. The total player's share vs a COLA increase that gets cannibalized by the stars at the top. I don't recall it ever being proposed as dedicated inflation protection for superstars until the agents started pushing that boat out and now its a fact of life.

It used to be that a player signed a deal for a number based on what he did and how much the owners did or didn't earn had nothing to do with it. And when the cap came , the revenue split was between every player in the union and every owner with the intention of giving the players as a whole a guaranteed share of the pie. Not individual star players getting a guaranteed percentage, that would come at the expense of improving the pay for the rest of the lineup.
What are you talking about? Superstars getting their 5% bump from a 5% cap increase doesn't prevent any other players from getting their 5% bump. And for the record, superstars are usually the ones that get the short end of the stick in terms of compensation relative to impact, with the middle class, on average, benefiting most.
Why should a player benefit from the growth of the cap when there is no requirement that he continues to perform at the level that got him the deal? If you decline rather than grow, why should your pay check grow? So the owner has to spend more coin on players to absorb your failure to produce without the cap relief that can come only from LTIR .
These are league-wide considerations involving contract standards and the realities of guaranteed contracts with term, so you should probably be writing the NHLPA to tell them about how their employees don't deserve the protections they collectively negotiated for by sacrificing other things to their billionaire corporate overlords. Until then, we just have to navigate the world and standards that currently exist.
 
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Sypher04

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Jan 20, 2011
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Overall samsonov’s stats are the worst. There’s no denying that. But since mid January when he was recalled they are the best of the bunch we have.
 
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ToneDog

56 years and counting. #FireTheShanaClan!
Jun 11, 2017
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Overall samsonov’s stats are the worst. There’s no denying that. But since mid January when he was recalled they are the best of the bunch we have.
Unfortunately looked like messed up Sammy his last two games and going into the playoffs.

1713376971048.png
 

LaPlante94

Registered User
Apr 12, 2011
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Samsonov has the worst stats this year of our goalies, but he has the best record. This should have been an indication for you that better overall goalie stats don't automatically equal a better team record. Winning 5-4 or 5-1 has a pretty big impact on a goalie's stats, but it doesn't change anything about a team's point percentage, and all indications are that this kind of thing is what happened here, considering the spectacular 117 point pace we have had in front of Samsonov, compared to the 92 point pace we have had while getting better goaltending away from him.

It's one thing to suggest that Samsonov's struggles compared to last year could have negatively impacted us, just as we likely benefited from better goaltending than last year in the other half of games. It's quite another however to arbitrarily tack on another 12 points and hold the expectation of a 142 point pace in front of Samsonov, in order to distract from the bigger area of concern.

Winnipeg has done better than us this year, and they have the runaway best goalie this year, who has doubled the overall goaltending impact of Samsonov last year, and they have played at a 107 point pace in front of him. If we're tacking on 12 points because we went from good goaltending to above average goaltending, what bonus are we tacking on to our franchise-record season 2 years ago, when we got bad -21 GSAx goaltending? It's not that simple.

No, we let useful players walk, that some here never appreciated, and then didn't properly add what we needed. The forwards and defensemen we added to replace good defensive players and surround an influx of rookies were some of the worst in the league defensively, we left a hole in the top-4 of our defense, and we seemed to forget PKing exists. The team took a hit this year because of it.

What are you talking about? Superstars getting their 5% bump from a 5% cap increase doesn't prevent any other players from getting their 5% bump. And for the record, superstars are usually the ones that get the short end of the stick in terms of compensation relative to impact, with the middle class, on average, benefiting most.

These are league-wide considerations involving contract standards and the realities of guaranteed contracts with term, so you should probably be writing the NHLPA to tell them about how their employees don't deserve the protections they collectively negotiated for by sacrificing other things to their billionaire corporate overlords. Until then, we just have to navigate the world and standards that currently exist.
A goalie letting in 3-5 goals a game is definitely gonna hurt your teams record. Yeah, they will help him get wins by scoring 6 but you can't expect your offence to do that every game. The offence did their part to help him scoring 3.63 goals per game being 2nd in the league. I don't think asking your goalie to return the favour once in a while or at least be a little more consistent and stop letting in 4+ goals in many consecutive starts is asking much, especially when your backup and a 3rd string goalie did their part.

Who is talking about a 142 point pace? I just said if he didn't suck for over half of his starts ad gave us 5-6 better/quality starts we most likely end up winning the presidents trophy/the division and this conversation isn't happening.

Lets not act like Winnipeg has the core we do to provide the type of offence we put up. I think we both know if they did they'd easily be top in the league without question. Who knows, maybe if Villardi wasn't hurt half the year and they got Monahan earlier they would've done just that. Also 2 seasons ago these are the 3 goalies who played 10+ games for us. Jack Campbell, Petr Mrazek and Erik Kallgren. Quite the trio of goaltending so it's pretty easy to see why our goaltending stats that season weren't very good, but yes, I'm sure if we had the trio we had now it makes a difference. Also a lot of bad teams 2 years ago compared to this year apparently. 2 Years ago you had I think 9-10 teams that had 50+ wins. You had like 11 teams who didn't even make it to 35 wins and 6 of those 11 didn't even get to 30 wins. Expansion year so it seems like a lot of teams benefitted from it.

We let go of players who provided nothing to us during the playoffs. That PK you speak of seemed to go to shit during the playoffs with those same players too. So what the hell were they exactly useful for? Couldn't score when it mattered and couldn't kill penalties when it mattered. If defence is the one thing they provide and that's it I'd like to see our PK at the top of the league during the playoffs too and not at the bottom with a PK % in the 70s. Our current PK unit could probably hold a PK % in the 70s.
 
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Menzinger

Kessel4LadyByng
Apr 24, 2014
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Pretty crazy that we've operated most of his season with ~4m in dead cap space allocated to Klingberg (pre-TDL) and now, with Brodie potentially scratched, ~5m in the playoffs.

The biggest 'what if' that will be scrutinized heavily depending how the post season goes
 

SprDaVE

Moderator
Sep 20, 2008
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Pretty crazy that we've operated most of his season with ~4m in dead cap space allocated to Klingberg (pre-TDL) and now, with Brodie potentially scratched, ~5m in the playoffs.

In hindsight, yeah, it really sucks. There weren't many RHD available outside of Gudas and Schenn, so I get making the risk signing because we did need more RHD and skill on the back end but... yikes was it ever bad.

Jeff Petry probably would have been a better addition and the price to acquire was fairly cheap. Colin Miller was also traded for just a 5th rounder and he's pretty decent. Jan Rutta was basically dumped to the Sharks and I think we could have had him cheap.
 

Dreakmur

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Mar 25, 2008
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In hindsight, yeah, it really sucks. There weren't many RHD available outside of Gudas and Schenn, so I get making the risk signing because we did need more RHD and skill on the back end but... yikes was it ever bad.

Jeff Petry probably would have been a better addition and the price to acquire was fairly cheap. Colin Miller was also traded for just a 5th rounder and he's pretty decent. Jan Rutta was basically dumped to the Sharks and I think we could have had him cheap.

Petry and Rutta would have been in 3rd pairing guys, but we don't need those at all. We have like 8 guys who should be on the 3rd pairing - basically everyone outside Rielly.

Colin Miller sucks.
 

SprDaVE

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Sep 20, 2008
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Petry and Rutta would have been in 3rd pairing guys, but we don't need those at all. We have like 8 guys who should be on the 3rd pairing - basically everyone outside Rielly.

Colin Miller sucks.

Petry was playing 18-19 minutes for Detroit this past season and was 3rd in D scoring. He was a consistent 22+ minute guy for awhile but obviously regressed in that time. I would have gladly acquired him at 2.3M for a 4th and a throwaway prospect. He's far better than both Klingberg and Lyubushkin.

Colin Miller isn't great but the point was that he was acquired cheap in the off-season and probably would have been ok to have over Klingberg and his dead cap space instead.
 

The Management

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Jun 8, 2009
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Really makes you wonder what Ottawa's lockerroom situation is like. Team performs below expectations, the new acquisitions want out, turnover in coaching and management. Probably a bad vibe.
 
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Kiwi

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Mar 5, 2016
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If only he was right handed, he'd be a great target.

McCabe only has one year left on his deal and I'm pretty sure he's around 30 odd and Benoit is a 3rd pair

Getting a mid 20's LD who could play in the top 4 for half a decade is reasonably attractive, especially when I look at our prospect pool

Not a ton of help coming soon on LD
 

Dekes For Days

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Sep 24, 2018
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I don't think asking your goalie to return the favour once in a while or at least be a little more consistent and stop letting in 4+ goals in many consecutive starts is asking much, especially when your backup and a 3rd string goalie did their part.
I agree, but that's a different argument than how it actually ended up affecting our record.
Who is talking about a 142 point pace?
You did. That's what our pace would have been if 6 more of Samsonov's games were wins. It's unrealistic.
Lets not act like Winnipeg has the core we do to provide the type of offence we put up.
That wasn't the point. They've been a better team than us this year, and yet in front of runaway Vezina goaltending, they have a worse record than us in front of Samsonov. Overall goaltending impacts can be distributed in such a way that the impact on record isn't as simple as let's just add on 12 points and call it a day.
Also 2 seasons ago these are the 3 goalies who played 10+ games for us. Jack Campbell, Petr Mrazek and Erik Kallgren. Quite the trio of goaltending so it's pretty easy to see why our goaltending stats that season weren't very good
If Campbell and Mrazek performed like they did the year prior, at the same ratio of games that they played, we would have had spectacular +37.4 GSAx goaltending.
I'm not really sure how you think it's a different situation than Samsonov.
2 Years ago you had I think 9-10 teams that had 50+ wins.
There were 9 teams with 50+ wins. This year there are 8. The difference? The Leafs...
We let go of players who provided nothing to us during the playoffs.
That's not true. Just because your team loses in the playoffs, it doesn't mean all your players were worthless and didn't provide anything.
That PK you speak of seemed to go to shit during the playoffs with those same players too.
2019-2023, our PK% was higher in the playoffs relative to the regular season, despite facing a higher average quality of opponents.
 

horner

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May 22, 2007
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If we lose to Boston there will be big changes.

Marner is up for a new contract trade him . We will get pennies on the talent because of his no trade clause. I personally thin g he will want to move on.

UFA
Patrick Kane 3 yrs @ 7 mil it's a bit of a risk but his hips seemed to be fine
Detroit won't be able to sign him

Sign
Bert 4 yrs @ 5.5 mil
Domi 4 yrs @ 5 mil
Demelo 5 yrs @ 5 mil
Skjie 5 yrs # 6 mi

Liljegren 1 yr @ 2.5 mi
Robertson 2vyrs @ 1.35 mil
Backup goaltender 2 mil

trade
Kampf
Jamcrock
Gregor
 

LeafParade

Registered User
Jun 27, 2019
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McCabe only has one year left on his deal and I'm pretty sure he's around 30 odd and Benoit is a 3rd pair

Getting a mid 20's LD who could play in the top 4 for half a decade is reasonably attractive, especially when I look at our prospect pool

Not a ton of help coming soon on LD

Because McCabe has one year left and can play RHD, I've always been open to adding a top 4 LHD in the summer.
They obviously need a RHD, but its not like a LHD wouldn't help based on what is in the pipeline.

They just need top 4 D in general.

Reilly - X
X - Lilly
Benoit - McCabe

Niemela could end up as the 3rd pairing RHD if McCabe leaves after next year, for the start of 2025-2026 season.
 
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Fogelhund

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Sep 15, 2007
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If we lose to Boston there will be big changes.

Marner is up for a new contract trade him . We will get pennies on the talent because of his no trade clause. I personally thin g he will want to move on.

UFA
Patrick Kane 3 yrs @ 7 mil it's a bit of a risk but his hips seemed to be fine
Detroit won't be able to sign him

Sign
Bert 4 yrs @ 5.5 mil
Domi 4 yrs @ 5 mil
Demelo 5 yrs @ 5 mil
Skjie 5 yrs # 6 mi

Liljegren 1 yr @ 2.5 mi
Robertson 2vyrs @ 1.35 mil
Backup goaltender 2 mil

trade
Kampf
Jamcrock
Gregor
I don't think you need to spend that much on Domi, and I'm not sold on Bertuzzi at that price either. Maybe playoff Bertuzzi changes my mind??
 
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kb

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Aug 28, 2009
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I don't think you need to spend that much on Domi, and I'm not sold on Bertuzzi at that price either. Maybe playoff Bertuzzi changes my mind??
I'm looking at the perspective that they have LW's McMann and Knies already under contract, and Robertson as an RFA plus Grebyonkin (sp?) possibly signing for next season to come across too....all top 9 LW's. Holmberg also plays LW when not up the middle. That's technically 5 top-9 LW's, with RFA's Dewar and Gregor battling for the 4th line LW. That's already 7 LW's

I think no matter what, only one of Bert or Ernie will be resigned - at most. Both are 29 and will be on the wrong side of 30 in less than a year.

And it's becoming obvious that a trade will most likely happen to ease the LW logjam.
 
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Magic Man

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Mar 30, 2012
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I'd lock up Max long term and let Bertuzzi go as an FA. Domi had 6 majors this year and 3 other instances where he dropped the gloves and was penalized that I can remember. He has been more of a 1-2 major guy for the majority of his NHL career. He seems more interested in playing that kind of role in Toronto. If Domi can bring that level of grease to the lineup each season and produce 50 points a year while playing center and wing he is an important piece.

Bertuzzi was good and has played a physical brand also. But, Max has separated himself with his willingness to play with an edge more consistently and his ability to play center. If they can fit in Bertuzzi as well they should, but I'd prioritize Max on a multi year deal.

JT is getting older and Max has the ability to take some of those minutes if he experiences another decline next season.
 

Dekes For Days

Registered User
Sep 24, 2018
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Marner is up for a new contract trade him . We will get pennies on the talent because of his no trade clause. I personally thin g he will want to move on.
UFA
Patrick Kane 3 yrs @ 7 mil it's a bit of a risk but his hips seemed to be fine
Detroit won't be able to sign him

Sign
Bert 4 yrs @ 5.5 mil
Domi 4 yrs @ 5 mil
Backup goaltender 2 mil
Tradiing Marner would be horrible.
36, 37, and 38 year old Kane for 7m is the last thing we need. Did we not learn from Marleau?
Bertuzzi hasn't earned 5.5m, and I wouldn't want to commit 4 years to him after the Jekyll and Hyde season he just had. We also have LWs in the system now.
Domi hasn't earned 5m, and there's a reason he only gets short-term contracts and shifts teams so often. 4 years makes me nervous.
We shouldn't spend 2m on a backup. Woll should be our cheap backup goalie.
 

Stephen

Moderator
Feb 28, 2002
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I think he’s definitely signing in Toronto after next year.

What’s his connection to Toronto?

I feel like we kind of need to start mentally preparing for a declining Morgan Rielly. Obviously money is an issue but that blueline really could use 2 guys better than Rielly. He’s just not a dependable number one and struggles with different aspects of the game at different times.
 

Sypher04

Registered User
Jan 20, 2011
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What’s his connection to Toronto?

I feel like we kind of need to start mentally preparing for a declining Morgan Rielly. Obviously money is an issue but that blueline really could use 2 guys better than Rielly. He’s just not a dependable number one and struggles with different aspects of the game at different times.

I see no indication Rielly is going to decline any time soon. His greatest assets are his passing and skating and neither one of those have shown any signs of decline.
 
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