Tracking the Blues’ Stanley Cup Quest—LOL

[Saint Loser]

That sounds great in theory. It's that "fill in the blank" part where things get difficult. If we're talking about the culture of this team, I'd like to discuss about 20 of the past 25 years of the Blues playing to the level of their opposition, squeaking through in games they should have won comfortably if they don't gak it away completely, struggling with adversity [especially anyone missing out of the complete lineup], and finishing off opponents when they have a chance.

That spans multiple rosters and multiple coaches. It predates everyone associated with this team. But it's a mindset that like Michael Myers or Jason Voorhees, seems to live on no matter what happens.

It's not theory.

Culture is borne out daily in manifold ways.

"We need a new culture" because...

This can be seen as a cop-out, if the "because" is not backed up by a solution ("in order to").

Right? Is this not what you're saying? "We need a new a culture" is a complaint.

However, "we need a new culture" in order to...is a goal.

The solution is the cultural change or shift that leads to the killer instinct.

I think this is a fair depiction of your point. And I would agree.

I think the Blues need a cultural change. Sometimes that involves a change in personnel, whether players or staff.

Sometimes it takes an inspirational leader. There is a lot to this, obviously, and much more to discuss. Several factors must confluence in order to build this thing we call dynasty or winning culture.

With the exception of a handful of one-offs, like Carolina, Anaheim, Tampa Bay and Washington, the Stanley Cup has been lifted by relatively few teams.

Doesn't it seem it's the same teams over and over.

Montreal ruled the 70s.

Islanders and Oilers ruled the 80s.

Penguins, Devils, Red Wings and Avalanche ruled the 90s and well into the first decade of 2000.

We've seen the Penguins, Kings and Blackhawks rule in the last 10 years.

THIS is culture. A winning culture that so few teams have, but that so many fan bases crave.

The St. Louis Cardinals, Red Sox and Yankees are the epitome of baseball culture. A winning culture. A swagger that "we" belong.

The Blues have a chance of building a winning culture; a dynasty, if you will.

It takes the right mindset, the right mix of talent, a little luck and a generally cohesive locker room.

It takes leadership and sacrifice.

And if there are bad apples spoiling the bushel, then those bad apples must be tossed, no mater who it is.

 

[carter333167]

I'm not overly pissed about last night. I thought 2-1 or 1-2 was the best we would manage in that 3 game stretch. Just happy we didn't go 0-3 which was a possibility.

Now comes the litmus test...schedule is a tad softer than the last three games. We need to put together a 6-3ish run asap.

 

[TruBlu]

I think we are slowly dropping to the point where we will no longer be in contention. It looks like it will probably be late January before we are officially eliminated, but I'd like to see DA start moving some of the dead weight off the team right now. I'm hoping Q is just taking the rest of the year off and we can pick him up in the offseason. In the meantime, just stay the course with Berube, make some space, and hope that we can get some young acquisitions in the offseason who will play every shift like it is their last.

 

[carter333167]

I think we are slowly dropping to the point where we will no longer be in contention. It looks like it will probably be late January before we are officially eliminated, but I'd like to see DA start moving some of the dead weight off the team right now. I'm hoping Q is just taking the rest of the year off and we can pick him up in the offseason. In the meantime, just stay the course with Berube, make some space, and hope that we can get some young acquisitions in the offseason who will play every shift like it is their last.

We'll see.

If we do reach that point, DA will have some hard decisions on our core, particularly the ones with just over a year left on their deals.

 

[Evocable Manager]

We'll see.

If we do reach that point, DA will have some hard decisions on our core, particularly the ones with just over a year left on their deals.

If we reach that point, DA shouldn't be making any decisions.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

I don't want to see DA touch a thing with this roster. If he built it and it's a problem, it makes no sense to let him try to find the solution.

 

[carter333167]

If we reach that point, DA shouldn't be making any decisions.

A very fair point IMO.

 

[Evocable Manager]

A very fair point IMO.

It's only logical.

The guy who built a failure of a roster after spending all the owners money is also gonna be the guy to rebuild the roster he failed at building?

 

[carter333167]

Upcoming games

1. Red Wings
2. Coyotes
3. Avalanche
4. Oilers
5. Jets
6. Canucks
7. Panthers
8. Avalanche
9. Flames
10. Oilers
11. Canucks (Game is on 12/20)

 

[Ted Hoffman]

My guesses for games between now and Christmas:

1. @ Detroit - W. We don't have that fear factor of going into Detroit like we used to.
2. @ Colorado - L. We're not as bad in Denver as I thought we have been, but I still don't see us winning this.
3. @ Arizona - L. It's been only 3 games, but we've stunk in the 2nd game of a back-to-back this season. [You know, like last night.] Plus, the Coyotes are struggling to score goals and so you'd think we should be able to take advantage, so they'll score like 6 or 7 on us.
4. Edmonton - W. before we made a coaching change and the Oilers didn't, I'd have banked this as a win. Now, ... I still think we get at least a point. Let's be optimistic and say we don't give McDavid the same treatment we gave Laine, and we get 2 points here.
5. @ Winnipeg - W. Just kidding, it's an L but we don't get routed. [But I don't think we get an OTL either.]
6. Vancouver - W. For now. The Canucks just snapped an 0-7-1 streak with a win over the Kings and get the other have of a H&H with the Kings on Tuesday to start a 5-game home stand; they get momentum going, and this goes to toss-up.
7. Florida - W. This should be a win, which like Arizona above means it's exactly the kind of game we piss away.
8. Colorado - L. We can't win 3 straight.
9. Calgary - OTL. I'll be optimistic and say we get a point.
10. @ Edmonton - L.
11. @ Vancouver - OTL.
12. @ Calgary - L. And in this season, this is the kind of game where we get blown out to dwell on over the break.

That's what, 5-5-2? I might be a game off, but I don't feel like anything above 6-4-2 is feasible. That trip to Western Canada before Christmas had flashing red lights all over it.

 

[Saint Loser]

I don't want to see DA touch a thing with this roster. If he built it and it's a problem, it makes no sense to let him try to find the solution.

I’m afraid you might be right about this. DA built this roster, so he should not be allowed to tweak it.

I reiterate that he and Berube should he kept on through the remainder of the season and then, at least, DA let go.

 

[LetsGoBLUES91]

We have a relatively easy schedule (not looking at home/road. Just opponents) for the next 10-15 games. The time for a significant run is right now.

 

[The Note]

If they go like 7-3-1 with 2 of those wins coming against COL I’ll start to gain a little hope they can turn this around. As it stands now I assume they’ll finish about 5-3–3 effectively ending their season.

 

[ort]

Yeah, if they don't go on an absolute tear and soon, the season is done.

 

[TruBlu]

I don't have any faith in it at this point. Assuming 97 points is our cut off, we have 60 games left. Winning two out of every three games left in the season puts us at 99 points. Does anyone have any faith that this team will win two out of every three going forward? We may go on a run where we win seven out of ten, but we won't do that for the entirety of the rest of the season. We will be sellers probably even before the TDL most likely. I'd prefer that as to trying to win at this point. Trying to screw ourselves out of a top three draft pick when we have almost no real chance of getting into the playoffs seems counter productive.

 

[carter333167]

So, basically, we are fighting for the 8th spot (2nd Wildcard) in the Western Conference.

1. The first wild card spot is currently projecting at 104 points (the Jets).
2. The second wild card spot is currently projecting at 89 points (the Stars).

If we go on a nice run, we could at least be in the thick of a race with a bunch of teams (Stars, Ducks, Knights, Oilers, Canucks, Blackhawks) for the second wild card slot.

 

[thedustman]

So, basically, we are fighting for the 8th spot (2nd Wildcard) in the Western Conference.

1. The first wild card spot is currently projecting at 104 points (the Jets).
2. The second wild card spot is currently projecting at 89 points (the Stars).

If we go on a nice run, we could at least be in the thick of a race with a bunch of teams (Stars, Ducks, Knights, Oilers, Canucks, Blackhawks) for the second wild card slot.

None of those teams scare me... so the blues scare me the most. And holy crimson and clover, the pacific division is WEAK this year

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

For me, I'd welcome an intense race for the last wildcard spot where the Blues are playing meaningful games all year. Do they hire a coach that fits the bill at the end of the season? Yes, then I'll take that outcome. If the alternative is a dismantling the team and rooting for a bad finish to get a top draft pick, I don't see a player they'll draft there that will suddenly make me hopeful they're contenders next year. But I do see the chance for a much smaller change (like a new goalie and allowing expiring contracts to move on) that could be workable with a new coach.

A top 10 draft pick is nice, but I don't see it as the panacea some seem to think. And they WOULD have to dismantle to stay bad enough for the entire season to get a top 5 pick. As a fan, I can't get interested in that right now. There are enough talented players on this roster to make a good team. We need someone who knows how to make a good roux to get this started.

As for the Blues being "open for business" I could see Bozak moved, if the team think Schenn is likely to re-sign. I could see Bouwmeester moved for anything, but mainly to free the cap space to look at trading for a top 4 LHD that fits the core. Or maybe to fit ANOTHER starting goalie on top of Allen, and just suck it up and pay him as an expensive tandem/back-up guy.

But to my original point, I think this team probably CAN duke it out with the teams they'd need to beat to get that 2nd wildcard. And if you could guarantee that spot right now, I'd be very keen to see if the Blues could get hot vs that Pacific division. It would be nice to be on the right side of the killer bracket for a change.

 

[MissouriMook]

...
As for the Blues being "open for business" I could see Bozak moved, if the team think Schenn is likely to re-sign...

I disagree. That's simply not how Army works. The only way I could see him trading Bozak is if he already had Schenn inked to a new deal. As such, I don't see a way we trade Bozak until at least July 2, 2019.

 

[542365]

For me, I'd welcome an intense race for the last wildcard spot where the Blues are playing meaningful games all year. Do they hire a coach that fits the bill at the end of the season? Yes, then I'll take that outcome. If the alternative is a dismantling the team and rooting for a bad finish to get a top draft pick, I don't see a player they'll draft there that will suddenly make me hopeful they're contenders next year. But I do see the chance for a much smaller change (like a new goalie and allowing expiring contracts to move on) that could be workable with a new coach.

A top 10 draft pick is nice, but I don't see it as the panacea some seem to think. And they WOULD have to dismantle to stay bad enough for the entire season to get a top 5 pick. As a fan, I can't get interested in that right now. There are enough talented players on this roster to make a good team. We need someone who knows how to make a good roux to get this started.

As for the Blues being "open for business" I could see Bozak moved, if the team think Schenn is likely to re-sign. I could see Bouwmeester moved for anything, but mainly to free the cap space to look at trading for a top 4 LHD that fits the core. Or maybe to fit ANOTHER starting goalie on top of Allen, and just suck it up and pay him as an expensive tandem/back-up guy.

But to my original point, I think this team probably CAN duke it out with the teams they'd need to beat to get that 2nd wildcard. And if you could guarantee that spot right now, I'd be very keen to see if the Blues could get hot vs that Pacific division. It would be nice to be on the right side of the killer bracket for a change.

If they got the second Wild Card we'd play Nashville in the first round. We'd have to get the first Wild Card to play in the Pacific Division. The team that finishes 4th in the Central will have an easier playoff route than the team that finishes 2nd. Right now that would be the Jets(the 4th place team in the Central) would play the Flames in the first round, the winner of Sharks/Knights in the second round, and the winner of the Central playoff side in the WCF. That's much easier than the Wild who would have to beat Colorado and Nashville to make the WCF. The first Wild Card would be the best possible option. I think we could conceivably beat every team in the Pacific in a 7 game series if we're playing well. We absolutely cannot beat the Preds(as long as Rinne is healthy) or the Jets in a 7 game series. No chance without huge improvements or additions.

 

[carter333167]

Wild Card	GP	W	L	OT	PTS	ROW	GF	GA	DIFF	HOME	AWAY	S/O	L10	STRK	Last Game	Next Game
1 Winnipeg	22	13	7	2	28	13	74	62	+12	8-2-2	5-5-0	0-1	6-3-1	W1	Nov 24: WPG 8 - STL 4	Nov 27 vs PIT
2 Dallas	24	12	10	2	26	12	68	66	+2	8-3-1	4-7-1	0-0	4-5-1	L1	Nov 24: DAL 2 - COL 3	Nov 27 @ EDM
3 Anaheim	25	10	10	5	25	8	56	74	-18	7-3-5	3-7-0	2-2	4-4-2	L1	Nov 25: ANA 2 - NSH 5	Nov 27 @ TBL
4 Vancouver	26	11	13	2	24	10	77	94	-17	5-4-0	6-9-2	1-2	2-7-1	W1	Nov 24: VAN 4 - LAK 2	Nov 27 vs LAK
5 Chicago	24	9	10	5	23	9	65	82	-17	5-3-3	4-7-2	0-1	3-5-2	W1	Nov 24: CHI 5 - FLA 4	Nov 27 vs VGK
6 Edmonton	23	10	11	2	22	10	64	76	-12	4-4-1	6-7-1	0-0	2-7-1	L1	Nov 25: EDM 2 - LAK 5	Nov 27 vs DAL
7 Arizona	22	9	11	2	20	8	53	62	-9	5-6-1	4-5-1	1-0	2-6-2	L2	Nov 25: ARI 1 - CGY 6	Nov 27 @ MIN
8 St. Louis	22	8	11	3	19	8	67	73	-6	6-7-1	2-4-2	0-0	4-6-0	L1	Nov 24: STL 4 - WPG 8	Nov 28 @ DET
9 Los Angeles	23	8	14	1	17	7	51	74	-23	5-8-1	3-6-0	1-0	4-6-0	W1	Nov 25: LAK 5 - EDM 2	Nov 27 @ VAN

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

If they got the second Wild Card we'd play Nashville in the first round. We'd have to get the first Wild Card to play in the Pacific Division. The team that finishes 4th in the Central will have an easier playoff route than the team that finishes 2nd. Right now that would be the Jets(the 4th place team in the Central) would play the Flames in the first round, the winner of Sharks/Knights in the second round, and the winner of the Central playoff side in the WCF. That's much easier than the Wild who would have to beat Colorado and Nashville to make the WCF. The first Wild Card would be the best possible option. I think we could conceivably beat every team in the Pacific in a 7 game series if we're playing well. We absolutely cannot beat the Preds(as long as Rinne is healthy) or the Jets in a 7 game series. No chance without huge improvements or additions.

You're right, we need to shoot for the higher wildcard spot.

 

[TruBlu]

For me, I'd welcome an intense race for the last wildcard spot where the Blues are playing meaningful games all year. Do they hire a coach that fits the bill at the end of the season? Yes, then I'll take that outcome. If the alternative is a dismantling the team and rooting for a bad finish to get a top draft pick, I don't see a player they'll draft there that will suddenly make me hopeful they're contenders next year. But I do see the chance for a much smaller change (like a new goalie and allowing expiring contracts to move on) that could be workable with a new coach.

A top 10 draft pick is nice, but I don't see it as the panacea some seem to think. And they WOULD have to dismantle to stay bad enough for the entire season to get a top 5 pick. As a fan, I can't get interested in that right now. There are enough talented players on this roster to make a good team. We need someone who knows how to make a good roux to get this started.

As for the Blues being "open for business" I could see Bozak moved, if the team think Schenn is likely to re-sign. I could see Bouwmeester moved for anything, but mainly to free the cap space to look at trading for a top 4 LHD that fits the core. Or maybe to fit ANOTHER starting goalie on top of Allen, and just suck it up and pay him as an expensive tandem/back-up guy.

But to my original point, I think this team probably CAN duke it out with the teams they'd need to beat to get that 2nd wildcard. And if you could guarantee that spot right now, I'd be very keen to see if the Blues could get hot vs that Pacific division. It would be nice to be on the right side of the killer bracket for a change.

Why do you think we'd have to dismantle to get a top 5 pick? We are currently in the # 2 spot. I realize we have a couple of games in hand on some teams, but most of those teams are several points ahead of us, meaning we'd have to win those games in hand just to keep up with them. We are more than a quarter of the way into the season. I think it is very likely we get a top 5 pick if no changes are made to the coaching staff. I'd rather not make any coaching changes unless it is to acquire Q. I'd stay the course with Berube for the season, personally. If some other team gets Q, then we are better off not picking "the best that is available for now." If Q waits until the offseason to start coaching again, then we're better off waiting in that scenario, too. The offseason will provide more options.

 

[HighNote]

I can see us slipping into the Pacific bracket. Would be a nice change for once.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Why do you think we'd have to dismantle to get a top 5 pick? We are currently in the # 2 spot. I realize we have a couple of games in hand on some teams, but most of those teams are several points ahead of us, meaning we'd have to win those games in hand just to keep up with them. We are more than a quarter of the way into the season. I think it is very likely we get a top 5 pick if no changes are made to the coaching staff. I'd rather not make any coaching changes unless it is to acquire Q. I'd stay the course with Berube for the season, personally. If some other team gets Q, then we are better off not picking "the best that is available for now." If Q waits until the offseason to start coaching again, then we're better off waiting in that scenario, too. The offseason will provide more options.

This team won’t play that badly all year to finish behind:
Chicago, Vancouver, Detroit, Ottawa, NYR, NYI, LA and probably Arizona and maybe Philadelphia. A couple of those teams may be real flashes, but most of them are young teams that are going to hit a wall, and most are sellers at the deadline. From my list, you can see that the Blues will have a hard time keeping a top 10 pick if I’m right.

You’re aware the Blues fired Yeo. You’re already dismissing any positive impact from Berube? To my eye, they already look significantly better vs Nashville and Winnipeg. This week will be telling, but I’ll be shocked if they play at this points pace for the next 3 quarters of the season. And I don’t see Army being a complete seller, so there will be bad teams we can’t ‘keep up’ with.

The Blues are bad, but they won’t play a season of bottom 5 bad.