Toronto Maple Leafs: Team Analytics

[leafstilldeath*]

We have seen player analytics being posted and debated in player threads so thought of making this thread where we discuss team analytics with respect to the league, divisional rivals, conference and hated teams (habs, sens, etc...). Team analytics discussed in pre-game, GDT and PGTs get locked; so having a thread on its own seems like a good idea.

If there is already a team analytics thread mods please merge this thread with it.

Stats Sundin @statssundin · 26m 26 minutes ago
So the Leafs are the 2nd worst team in open play, although Buffalo is last and they don't count, so yeah they're the worst.


some other interesting team dynamics

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/teamstats.php?db=201415&sit=f10&disp=1&sortdir=DESC&sort=GFPCT

Leafs rank 6th overall this season in 5on5 play wrt to GF%.

Bozak line is the only line that is <50% evenstrength acting as a drag on the team's 5on5 play this season.

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...ards&minutes=100&disp=1&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

PowerPlay

Leafs Rank 11th overall in PP
http://www.nhl.com/ice/teamstats.ht...l&sort=powerPlayPercentage&viewName=powerPlay

Ranks 10th in terms of GF/60 on PP
http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/teamstats.php?disp=1&db=201415&sit=5v4&sort=GF60&sortdir=DESC

Ranks 26th in terms of shorts against per 60 on PP

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/teamstats.php?disp=1&db=201415&sit=5v4&sort=SA60&sortdir=ASC

This season PP top3 players so far:

Kessel, JVR, Franson
http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...aters&minutes=50&disp=1&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

Last 2 season averagefor PPpoints/60 mins of ice-time

Kessel, Kadri, Franson
http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...ters&minutes=200&disp=1&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

Click to read more...

 

[zeke]

its actually pretty amazing.

most of the team plays a fine possession game. the only real problem spots have been the first line and second pairing.

i'll use zone start adjusted numbers to make the comparisons fair:

CF% 5v5

Bozak/Kessel/JVR: 42.5/44.0/41.1 ---------------- ~42.9% average
Kadri/Lupul/Santo: 53.0/51.6/50.1 ----------------- ~51.6% average
Holland/Komo/Winnik: 45.3/48.4/52.0 ------------- ~48.5% average
Smith/Panik/Clarkson/Booth: 46.6/47.9/46.7/47.1 - ~47.1% average

Phaneuf/Franson: 47.2/49.9 ----------------------- ~48.6% average
Gardiner/Polak: 43.8/45.5 ------------------------- ~44.7% average
Rielly/Robidas: 49.6/47.2 ------------------------- ~48.4% average

the rest of the team isn't great possessionwise, but for the most part they're all fine possesiion wise except for the top line and second pairing.

and there's probably some very quick fixes for these two problems:

1) play rielly/robidas more and gardiner/polak less.
2) play kadri/lupul/santo more and bozak/kessel/jvr less.

or, you know, break up the disaster combos altogether.

 

[ToneBone03]

its actually pretty amazing.

most of the team plays a fine possession game. the only real problem spots have been the first line and second pairing.

i'll use zone start adjusted numbers to make the comparisons fair:

CF% 5v5

Bozak/Kessel/JVR: 42.5/44.0/41.1 ---------------- ~42.9% average
Kadri/Lupul/Santo: 53.0/51.6/50.1 ----------------- ~51.6% average
Holland/Komo/Winnik: 45.3/48.4/52.0 ------------- ~48.5% average
Smith/Panik/Clarkson/Booth: 46.6/47.9/46.7/47.1 - ~47.1% average

Phaneuf/Franson: 47.2/49.9 ----------------------- ~48.6% average
Gardiner/Polak: 43.8/45.5 ------------------------- ~44.7% average
Rielly/Robidas: 49.6/47.2 ------------------------- ~48.4% average

the rest of the team isn't great possessionwise, but for the most part they're all fine possesiion wise except for the top line and second pairing.

and there's probably some very quick fixes for these two problems:

1) play rielly/robidas more and gardiner/polak less.
2) play kadri/lupul/santo more and bozak/kessel/jvr less.

or, you know, break up the disaster combos altogether.

Wow, that first line though.

 

[Pyromaniac3]

Does anyone have a good theory on why Leafs are terrible in CF% after a Neutral Zone loss?

My personal theory is that they allow teams to enter their zone without any pressure. Meaning they don't force the forwards to dump the puck and instead allow them to carry the puck in.


I hope this thread doesn't get derailed with posters questioning analytics itself. I hope the discussion is limited to what the numbers tell us instead of questioning the validity of stats.

 

[Al14]

its actually pretty amazing.

most of the team plays a fine possession game. the only real problem spots have been the first line and second pairing.

i'll use zone start adjusted numbers to make the comparisons fair:

CF% 5v5

Bozak/Kessel/JVR: 42.5/44.0/41.1 ---------------- ~42.9% average
Kadri/Lupul/Santo: 53.0/51.6/50.1 ----------------- ~51.6% average
Holland/Komo/Winnik: 45.3/48.4/52.0 ------------- ~48.5% average
Smith/Panik/Clarkson/Booth: 46.6/47.9/46.7/47.1 - ~47.1% average

Phaneuf/Franson: 47.2/49.9 ----------------------- ~48.6% average
Gardiner/Polak: 43.8/45.5 ------------------------- ~44.7% average
Rielly/Robidas: 49.6/47.2 ------------------------- ~48.4% average

the rest of the team isn't great possessionwise, but for the most part they're all fine possesiion wise except for the top line and second pairing.

and there's probably some very quick fixes for these two problems:

1) play rielly/robidas more and gardiner/polak less.
2) play kadri/lupul/santo more and bozak/kessel/jvr less.

or, you know, break up the disaster combos altogether.

They'll just take their weaknesses elsewhere?

Another N.H.L. team would be fine.

 

[zeke]

i'd say conceding the neutral is the single worst aspect of whatever "system" we employ.

and what's crazy about is that conceding the neutral zone doesn't seem to help us recover dump ins any better. though that shouldn't be a huge surprise i guess when the other team is allowed to come through the neutral zone at full speed.

 

[Pyromaniac3]

Crazy stat: In the last 11 games, where we have a record of 9-1-1, Bozak, JVR, Kessel has respectively 35.8%, 36.1%, and 36.9% CF rating! All of them are also in the minus-70s! in Corsi+/-.

That's worse than Buffalo.

 

[zeke]

hmm so following up on Pyro's commment...let's rank them in each category:

(hey OP is that chart corsi or fenwick or what?)

OZW: 87.10% (2ND)
OZL: 56.96% (14TH)

NZW: 60.29% (27TH)
NZL: 20.22% (29TH)

DZW: 50.00% (7TH)
DZL: 15.73% (18TH)


if i'm reading this right, all of our problems come from neutral zone starts.

 

[samyy]

It should be noted that the 2nd pairing plays primarily with our 1st line
I wonder how much of the drag with our 2nd pairing has to do with the 1st line

Just an example from the Kings game....yikes.
Thanks to naturalstattrick.com

 

[leafstilldeath*]

Does anyone have a good theory on why Leafs are terrible in CF% after a Neutral Zone loss?

My personal theory is that they allow teams to enter their zone without any pressure. Meaning they don't force the forwards to dump the puck and instead allow them to carry the puck in.


I hope this thread doesn't get derailed with posters questioning analytics itself. I hope the discussion is limited to what the numbers tell us instead of questioning the validity of stats.

BINGO!

Opposition teams get easy zone entries into our zone. This can be supported by:

http://www.nhl.com/ice/teamstats.ht...rt=shotsAgainst&viewName=outshootingOutshotby

Leafs rank 28th in the league in terms of total shots against and 26th in the league in terms of shots against per game.

So who are surrendering the most shots for the leafs?
http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...00&teamid=28&type=shots&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

Forwards: entire first line, Clarkson and Holland to certain extent.
Defense: Except for Franson and Rielly to a certain extent, pretty much every D-man has SF% (shots forced vs agaisnt in %) lower than 50%

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...ense&minutes=100&disp=1&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

 

[Pyromaniac3]

hmm so following up on Pyro's commment...let's rank them in each category:

(hey OP is that chart corsi or fenwick or what?)

OZW: 87.10% (2ND)
OZL: 56.96% (14TH)

NZW: 60.29% (27TH)
NZL: 20.22% (29TH)

DZW: 50.00% (7TH)
DZL: 15.73% (18TH)


if i'm reading this right, all of our problems come from neutral zone starts.

I believe the chart is CF%. Also, you forgot Open Play% which we rank 2nd last just ahead of Buffalo.

 

[613Leafer]

Crazy stat: In the last 11 games, where we have a record of 9-1-1, Bozak, JVR, Kessel has respectively 35.8%, 36.1%, and 36.9% CF rating! All of them are also in the minus-70s! in Corsi+/-.

That's worse than Buffalo.

Well hopefully our analytics department can see what your average joe hockey fan can tell by looking at the stats or simply by watching the games (it's not all that subtle)... Our top line is bad enough defensively to completely negate any net-positive effect from their high offensive output.

The top line is losing ground to stand on. You cant blame their defensive struggles on goaltending/defence anymore considering the majority of other forwards on the same team are putting up better corsi, fenwick, shots against, goals against, +/-, etc stats.

I know we're on a good run right now, and people dont like to make aggressive trades when winning. But IMO "selling high" on a players high offensive numbers while the winning team deflects criticisms of that players defensive problems is the best way to maximize value. Better then trading one of these guys after a 2-6-2 run or something like that where their value may be deflated.

 

[leafstilldeath*]

hmm so following up on Pyro's commment...let's rank them in each category:

(hey OP is that chart corsi or fenwick or what?)

OZW: 87.10% (2ND)
OZL: 56.96% (14TH)

NZW: 60.29% (27TH)
NZL: 20.22% (29TH)

DZW: 50.00% (7TH)
DZL: 15.73% (18TH)


if i'm reading this right, all of our problems come from neutral zone starts.

Its a chart of situation based corsi % (5on5). If you look at the last column Leafs are the 2nd worst team only to Buffalo. Also if you wanna look at individual team stats then you wanna compare the stat to the league average either we are below or above average. And given the 6 categories we are below average in the other 5 categoies. We are good only in OZW: 87.10%

Here is a tweet I got it from
https://twitter.com/joshweissbock/status/544660284762124288/photo/1


EDIT: It will be interesting if we can track this every 3 games or so to see how we are improving (or declining) as the season keeps moving forward

 

[leafstilldeath*]

It should be noted that the 2nd pairing plays primarily with our 1st line
I wonder how much of the drag with our 2nd pairing has to do with the 1st line

Just an example from the Kings game....yikes.
Thanks to naturalstattrick.com

if you look at Gardiner's corsi forced% without column you see its significantly better without all of Bozak, Kessel and JVR. It is the worst with Bozak less than friggen 20%

 

[samyy]

if you look at Gardiner's corsi forced% without column you see its significantly better without all of Bozak, Kessel and JVR. It is the worst with Bozak less than friggen 20%

Detroit game:
Jake Gardiner

So even just 3-4 minutes with our 1st line and his CA skyrocketed. The 1st line was on ice with Gardiner for just 3 minutes but gave up as many CA then Clarkson/Lupul in 12 minutes.

I really think playing Gardiner with the 1st line might be one of the causes of his poor play this year

 

[Alerion]

I hope I never have the time to understand this

go leafs

I don't understand this position, why remain willfully ignorant?

Good thread OP, I look forward to contributing.

Detroit game:
Jake Gardiner

So even just 3-4 minutes with our 1st line and his CA skyrocketed. The 1st line was on ice with Gardiner for just 3 minutes but gave up as many CA then Clarkson/Lupul in 12 minutes.

I really think playing Gardiner with the 1st line might be one of the causes of his poor play this year

Good God is that ever telling. I'd love to see data for the whole year, not just select games. TOI together would also be of interest.

 

[leafstilldeath*]

Detroit game:
Jake Gardiner

So even just 3-4 minutes with our 1st line and his CA skyrocketed. The 1st line was on ice with Gardiner for just 3 minutes but gave up as many CA then Clarkson/Lupul in 12 minutes.

I really think playing Gardiner with the 1st line might be one of the causes of his poor play this year

yup! Gards is being made scapegoat (or escape goat ) for the ineptitude of that first line.

 

[rdawg1234]

Sounds like the first line needs to be switched around.

why not move a guy like JVR down the line up and move a guy like santorelli up to the wing? Kessel seems okay at posession but him with Bozak(bad posession) and JVR(also bad posession) just doesnt work at all.

defence wise, why not trade Gardiner for Bogosian and change up the pairings?

 

[BackHandShelf22]

Good to see we have 3 lines and 2 pairings contributing at above average levels. Been really impressed with the Rielly/Robidas pairing specifically. It's taken a while, but Robidas plays a fearless game out there. Depth really taking an effect. That 1st line will come around hopefully. For now we have other players who can take the reigns.

 

[zeke]

beauty charts guys. i suspected the 2nd pair was getting victimized by the top line but didn't have the numbers to check.

makes me feel better about jake this year that's for sure.

i don't know how Dubas isn't yelling and screaming about this every day.

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

beauty charts guys. i suspected the 2nd pair was getting victimized by the top line but didn't have the numbers to check.

makes me feel better about jake this year that's for sure.

i don't know how Dubas isn't yelling and screaming about this every day.

So if the second pair is being victimized why isn't the first pair? They seem to play considerably better with the top line than without.

 

[GhettoHockey]

I was an analytics skeptic until i opened this thread

 

[HellasLEAF]

we're lookin good.

there's your analysis.

 

[Mess]

Crazy stat: In the last 11 games, where we have a record of 9-1-1, Bozak, JVR, Kessel has respectively 35.8%, 36.1%, and 36.9% CF rating! All of them are also in the minus-70s! in Corsi+/-.

That's worse than Buffalo.

Leafs lines 2-4 are carrying the team and the top line, basically overcoming the opposition and their own #1 line deficiencies.

Leafs top trio has really become a specialized unit basically on the PP and you can see why the strategy this off season was to bring in players and play the top line less and other lines more ay ES as the Corsi numbers support that premise.

 

[Wami]

Great topic, almost a no brainer - just one of those things that you wonder why you didn't think of it sooner. Can't wait to see what gets posted here on a daily basis!