I find that hard to believe.
The poor ratings are really a function of the casual fans not tuning in for a variety of reasons. As in: the Leafs suck, the other Canadian teams suck, lack of compelling storylines, etc, etc.
I find it difficult to imagine a scenario that would see a big ratings bump for the Leafs because of Marner, Nylander and their first pick this year.
If they get the number one pick and land Matthews maybe, but even that is iffy. Matthews is obviously the headliner of this draft, but is he a guy that transcends the game and creates interest on his own? Like a Lemieux, Lindros or Crosby? I have my doubts.
People like you and me will tune in to see those players develop and debut, but we're already watching anyway. To make ratings go up, Rogers needs to get the eyeballs that aren't watching back in front of the TV. I find it difficult to imagine a few nice young players developing is a selling point that can move the needle.
I think you are spot on with some of your points.
I think Rogers miscalculated
today viewers tolerance for poor content. Rogers looked at ratings 5 years ago and thought it could only continue to trend up.
I think they failed to acknowledge that the viewers of today have far more "instant" distractions than they did 10 years ago, and even 5 years ago. Netflix is avail at the touch of button, Xbox and PS4 have far better streaming options (movies, DL content,ect), many more people have cut the cord recently than 5 - 10 years ago. Gone are the days where you had a captive audience, Rogers needs to consider they are entering a new era in sports broadcasting and perhaps the viewership of 4 years ago, is just not a realistic number in today ever evolving audience.
Are you going to watch a poor Leafs/Habs/Flames/Canucks/Jets/Sens for 2.5 hours or are you going to order a great movie on demand? Once you've established a routine of alternate viewing are you going to come back when the teams are better?
Rogers clearly over valued the product and over estimated their revenues. I don't see better products (teams)
in the future saving the NHL deal. I could be wrong, only time will tell.