Top 3 NHL Draft Picks

[HockeyPops]

Here is an analysis of all CHL players drafted top 3, and where they played the following season. As a summary, just over 75% of 1st and 2nd round picks stick in the NHL in their D+1, and 50% of 3rd rounders.

1st Overall Picks: 22/28 played NHL -> 78.6%
1980 Doug Wickenheiser NHL
1981 Dale Hawerchuk NHL
1982 Gord Kluzak NHL
1984 Mario Lemieux NHL
1985 Wendel Clark NHL
1987 Pierre Turgeon NHL
1988 Mike Modano WHL
1990 Owen Nolan NHL
1991 Eric Lindros OHL
1993 Alexandre Daigle NHL***
1994 Ed Jovanovski OHL
1995 Bryan Berard OHL
1996 Chris Phillips WHL
1997 Joe Thornton NHL
2002 Rick Nash NHL
2003 Marc-Andre Fleury QMJHL*
2005 Sidney Crosby NHL
2007 Patrick Kane NHL
2008 Steven Stamkos NHL
2009 John Tavares NHL
2010 Taylor Hall NHL
2011 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins NHL
2012 Nail Yakupov NHL
2013 Nathan MacKinnon NHL
2014 Aaron Ekblad NHL
2015 Connor McDavid NHL
2017 Nico Hischier NHL
2020 Alexis Lafreniere NHL

2nd Overall Picks: 20/26 played NHL -> 76.9%
1980 Dave Babych NHL
1981 Doug Smith NHL
1982 Brian Bellows NHL
1983 Sylvain Turgeon NHL
1984 Kirk Muller NHL
1986 Jimmy Carson NHL
1987 Brendan Shanahan NHL
1988 Trevor Linden NHL
1989 Dave Chyzowski NHL
1990 Petr Nedved NHL
1991 Pat Falloon NHL
1993 Chris Pronger NHL
1995 Wade Redden WHL
1997 Patrick Marleau NHL
1998 David Legwand OHL
2001 Jason Spezza OHL
2003 Eric Staal NHL
2005 Bobby Ryan OHL
2006 Jordan Staal NHL
2008 Drew Doughty NHL
2010 Tyler Seguin NHL
2011 Gabriel Landeskog NHL
2012 Ryan Murray WHL
2014 Sam Reinhart WHL
2017 Nolan Patrick NHL
2018 Andrei Svechnikov NHL
2020 Quinton Byfield AHL**

3rd Overall Picks: 14/28 played NHL -> 50%
1980 Denis Savard NHL
1982 Gary Nylund NHL
1983 Pat LaFontaine NHL
1985 Craig Wolanin NHL
1986 Neil Brady WHL
1987 Glen Wesley NHL
1988 Curtis Leschyshyn NHL
1989 Scott Thornton OHL
1990 Keith Primeau NHL
1991 Scott Niedermayer WHL
1992 Mike Rathje WHL
1993 Chris Gratton NHL
1996 J.P. Dumont QMJHL
1998 Brad Stuart WHL
2002 Jay Bouwmeester NHL
2003 Nathan Horton NHL
2004 Cam Barker WHL
2008 Zach Bogosian NHL
2009 Matt Duchene NHL
2010 Erik Gudbranson OHL
2011 Jonathan Huberdeau QMJHL
2012 Alex Galchenyuk NHL*
2013 Jonathan Drouin QMJHL
2014 Leon Draisaitl WHL*
2015 Dylan Strome OHL
2016 PierreLuc Dubois QMJHL
2019 Kirby Dach NHL
2021 Mason McTavish OHL

Notes:
* players that played a good portion of the season at one level, but finished the year and playoffs at another level. Counted them in the league they finished in.
** excluded Byfield from the analysis since CHL wasn't an option for him in 2020-2021
*** Daigle was sent back for the first half of his D+2, but for this analysis he counts as NHL for his entire D+1.

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[Generalsupdates]

Here is an analysis of all CHL players drafted top 3, and where they played the following season. As a summary, just over 75% of 1st and 2nd round picks stick in the NHL in their D+1, and 50% of 3rd rounders.

1st Overall Picks: 22/28 played NHL -> 78.6%
1980 Doug Wickenheiser NHL
1981 Dale Hawerchuk NHL
1982 Gord Kluzak NHL
1984 Mario Lemieux NHL
1985 Wendel Clark NHL
1987 Pierre Turgeon NHL
1988 Mike Modano WHL
1990 Owen Nolan NHL
1991 Eric Lindros OHL
1993 Alexandre Daigle NHL***
1994 Ed Jovanovski OHL
1995 Bryan Berard OHL
1996 Chris Phillips WHL
1997 Joe Thornton NHL
2002 Rick Nash NHL
2003 Marc-Andre Fleury QMJHL*
2005 Sidney Crosby NHL
2007 Patrick Kane NHL
2008 Steven Stamkos NHL
2009 John Tavares NHL
2010 Taylor Hall NHL
2011 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins NHL
2012 Nail Yakupov NHL
2013 Nathan MacKinnon NHL
2014 Aaron Ekblad NHL
2015 Connor McDavid NHL
2017 Nico Hischier NHL
2020 Alexis Lafreniere NHL

2nd Overall Picks: 20/26 played NHL -> 76.9%
1980 Dave Babych NHL
1981 Doug Smith NHL
1982 Brian Bellows NHL
1983 Sylvain Turgeon NHL
1984 Kirk Muller NHL
1986 Jimmy Carson NHL
1987 Brendan Shanahan NHL
1988 Trevor Linden NHL
1989 Dave Chyzowski NHL
1990 Petr Nedved NHL
1991 Pat Falloon NHL
1993 Chris Pronger NHL
1995 Wade Redden WHL
1997 Patrick Marleau NHL
1998 David Legwand OHL
2001 Jason Spezza OHL
2003 Eric Staal NHL
2005 Bobby Ryan OHL
2006 Jordan Staal NHL
2008 Drew Doughty NHL
2010 Tyler Seguin NHL
2011 Gabriel Landeskog NHL
2012 Ryan Murray WHL
2014 Sam Reinhart WHL
2017 Nolan Patrick NHL
2018 Andrei Svechnikov NHL
2020 Quinton Byfield AHL**

3rd Overall Picks: 14/28 played NHL -> 50%
1980 Denis Savard NHL
1982 Gary Nylund NHL
1983 Pat LaFontaine NHL
1985 Craig Wolanin NHL
1986 Neil Brady WHL
1987 Glen Wesley NHL
1988 Curtis Leschyshyn NHL
1989 Scott Thornton OHL
1990 Keith Primeau NHL
1991 Scott Niedermayer WHL
1992 Mike Rathje WHL
1993 Chris Gratton NHL
1996 J.P. Dumont QMJHL
1998 Brad Stuart WHL
2002 Jay Bouwmeester NHL
2003 Nathan Horton NHL
2004 Cam Barker WHL
2008 Zach Bogosian NHL
2009 Matt Duchene NHL
2010 Erik Gudbranson OHL
2011 Jonathan Huberdeau QMJHL
2012 Alex Galchenyuk NHL*
2013 Jonathan Drouin QMJHL
2014 Leon Draisaitl WHL*
2015 Dylan Strome OHL
2016 PierreLuc Dubois QMJHL
2019 Kirby Dach NHL
2021 Mason McTavish OHL

Notes:
* players that played a good portion of the season at one level, but finished the year and playoffs at another level. Counted them in the league they finished in.
** excluded Byfield from the analysis since CHL wasn't an option for him in 2020-2021
*** Daigle was sent back for the first half of his D+2, but for this analysis he counts as NHL for his entire D+1.

And Eric Lindros is technically back to the OHL but that was because of contract negotiations. They wanted him in the NHL and clearly he would've been there.