Top 20 New Jersey Devils prospects developing with gusto

[JimEIV]

I just searched for forwards first year in the NHL who were 25 years old. Literally none of these players hit that list.

Ryan Malone: First game in the NHL is at age 23, immediately a regular

Moulson: First game is at 24, one day after his 24th birthday. Crushed AHL.

Killorn: First game is at 23.

Okay, that's enough. You've been wrong about all 3 players I looked for. Here's a list of players who were or turned 25 before February 1 in the season when they played their first NHL games - it's not very impressive:

Actually just for fun I had to look up Justin Abdelkader because that felt way wrong - of course, Justin Abdelkader turned 25 on February 25, 2012, when he had played in 222 NHL games.
.

I fixed your query.

For single seasons, from 1999-00 to 2015-16, in rookie season, from age 24 to 26, in the regular season, playing skater, sorted by descending Goals.


http://www.hockey-reference.com/pla...&c4comp=gt&c4val=&threshhold=5&order_by=goals

 

[JimEIV]

But that query tool is mess up...because Madden isn't on the list and clearly was 25 for his 1st NHL game and 26 for his 1st season

http://m.hkref.com/m?p=XXplayersXXmXXmaddejo01.html&t=0

Edit:
Never mind Madden is outside the year range.

 

[njdevils1982]

and very recently it was

"Well-developed New Jersey Devils prospects failing to make presence felt in NHL"

 

[Triumph]

I think his point was they didn't make their real NHL impact until that age.

Coleman likely would have gotten an NHL shot this year if he didn't get injured as well at 24, so it would put him in line with most of those guys.

Yeah, but the difference is that those guys played in the NHL and Coleman did not. So if you're asking would I trade any of them, at the ages they first got in the NHL, for Coleman, the answer is no, I wouldn't, and not just because they all went on to be successful, but because they played in the NHL and Coleman was unimpressive in a short AHL stint.

If you want a nerdier explanation for how I'm thinking, here's the wikipedia on Bayes' Theorem.

But that query tool is mess up...because Madden isn't on the list and clearly was 25 for his 1st NHL game and 26 for his 1st season

http://m.hkref.com/m?p=XXplayersXXmXXmaddejo01.html&t=0

Edit:
Never mind Madden is outside the year range.

Madden lied about his age but was lucky enough to discover his true age before becoming UFA in 2004. His birthdate used to be 1975 but was moved back to 1973 sometime in the early 2000s. That's why you might be misremembering his age.

Anyway, this is derail-ish, so I'll leave you all to the original article. I wouldn't put Coleman that high either.

 

[HBK27]

Good list/article overall.

I'd rank them:

1. Zacha
2. Blandisi
3. Boucher
4. Santini
5. Blackwood
6. Quennville
7. Coleman
8. Speers
9. Jacobs
10. Wood

Matteau was such a horrible pick

Not a good pick, but he's also not in a really good position this season not getting an opportunity to develop his game in Albany. If he were in the AHL, I doubt he would've dropped as much in the rankings.

Still, aside from Tanner Pearson, everyone else selected near Matteau - particularly in the 2nd round - hasn't done much of anything yet, so it's hard to kill the Devils too much on making that pick.

Now whether Lou should've forfeited the pick...

I thought at the time that Lou was going to continue to try to fight the NHL's ruling of taking away that pick (I believe there was an article out that alluded to this as well) - maybe that was part of the thinking behind it. Yes, the Devils would've probably been better off forfeiting the pick, but I'm more made at the NHL over the ridiculous punishment in the first place. The Devils got away with nothing - the original Kovalchuk contract was rejected by the NHL and that should've been the end of it.

 

[brule2000]

Yeah, but the difference is that those guys played in the NHL and Coleman did not. So if you're asking would I trade any of them, at the ages they first got in the NHL, for Coleman, the answer is no, I wouldn't, and not just because they all went on to be successful, but because they played in the NHL and Coleman was unimpressive in a short AHL stint.

If you want a nerdier explanation for how I'm thinking, here's the wikipedia on Bayes' Theorem.



Madden lied about his age but was lucky enough to discover his true age before becoming UFA in 2004. His birthdate used to be 1975 but was moved back to 1973 sometime in the early 2000s. That's why you might be misremembering his age.

Anyway, this is derail-ish, so I'll leave you all to the original article. I wouldn't put Coleman that high either.

"Lucky enough to discover his true age."

He used it the way he took faceoffs: not cheatin' not competin'.

 

[JimEIV]

Yeah, but the difference is that those guys played in the NHL and Coleman did not. So if you're asking would I trade any of them, at the ages they first got in the NHL, for Coleman, the answer is no, I wouldn't, and not just because they all went on to be successful, but because they played in the NHL and Coleman was unimpressive in a short AHL stint.

If you want a nerdier explanation for how I'm thinking, here's the wikipedia on Bayes' Theorem.



Madden lied about his age but was lucky enough to discover his true age before becoming UFA in 2004. His birthdate used to be 1975 but was moved back to 1973 sometime in the early 2000s. That's why you might be misremembering his age.

Anyway, this is derail-ish, so I'll leave you all to the original article. I wouldn't put Coleman that high either.

Yeah but Rafalski doesn't show up either and was 26 during his rookie1999-00 season.

http://m.hkref.com/m?p=XXplayersXXrXXrafalbr01.html&t=0

 

[Rhodes 81]

The 2012 draft just wasn't very good, honestly. Not a ton of talent has emerged from that class

 

[devilsblood]

Triumph handled my end of the argument pretty well.

But to add, Coleman's offensive #'s throughout college were not overly impressive. I know he was at a ppg, with a goal heavy split his final years, but he was 22 and then 23 for those years.

I don't take much from a 14 game sample in Albany. But again he's 24, he's not a 20 yr old like Kujo is, or Boucher was, so even if we say he was pretty impressive, that too needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Otherwise why not put Lorito on this list?

And yeah he looks to be an intangible guy, good motor, good leader, but if he's only a modest point producer I can't put him that high on the prospect list. IMO Woods is much better looking prospect.

 

[MadDevil]

The 2012 draft just wasn't very good, honestly. Not a ton of talent has emerged from that class

That draft was weird. Yakupov at 1, Murray at 2, Galchenyuk at 3, then 7 straight defensemen to round out the top 10.

 

[AfroThunder396]

When I watch Coleman play he looked like a smaller, less physical version of Kalinin. That is to say, no real discernible skills. Not physical, not grinding, not very good offensively or defensively. I mean he's playing in the AHL and is a center so it's likely he'll see NHL ice at some point but he left a lot to be desired.

My top 10 would probably go something like:

1. Zacha
2. Blandisi
3. Boucher
4. Quenneville
5. Santini
6. Blackwood
7. Jacobs
8. Wood
9. Speers
10. Coleman

 

[JimEIV]

When I watch Coleman play he looked like a smaller, less physical version of Kalinin. That is to say, no real discernible skills. Not physical, not grinding, not very good offensively or defensively. I mean he's playing in the AHL and is a center so it's likely he'll see NHL ice at some point but he left a lot to be desired.

My top 10 would probably go something like:

1. Zacha
2. Blandisi
3. Boucher
4. Quenneville
5. Santini
6. Blackwood
7. Jacobs
8. Wood
9. Speers
10. Coleman

Did you see him while he was on the 2nd line or on the 3rd...his first few games were a lot different from his last 7 or 8. You're description does seem off though...he was fiesty and tenacious every time I saw him. His shot is very good also.

 

[AfroThunder396]

Did you see him while he was on the 2nd line or on the 3rd...his first few games were a lot different from his last 7 or 8. You're description does seem off though...he was fiesty and tenacious every time I saw him. His shot is very good also.

To be fair I only saw him in few exhibition games, so that may have been why it seemed like he was coasting. Perhaps I just caught some bad games, but I left unimpressed.

 

[Billdo]

Eh, Coleman is pretty feisty and physical. I like his game.

 

[hutter]

Forwards tend to reach their scoring peak at around 24-25. Coleman is that age already and didn't show himself to be some great scorer in the AHL in the limited time had.

Since the 1997-1998 season, forwards on average peak in points/min at around age 26.7 and overall points at around age 27.7

The overall gist of what you're saying is about correct though because players are expected to reach around 90% of their peak production at age 24. If Coleman is actually a .5 p/g player in the AHL at age 24, I can't really hope for any kind of career out of him. Hopefully, he is not, and his 14 game sample size mistreats him.

 

[JimEIV]

Since the 1997-1998 season, forwards on average peak in points/min at around age 26.7 and overall points at around age 27.7

The overall gist of what you're saying is about correct though because players are expected to reach around 90% of their peak production at age 24. If Coleman is actually a .5 p/g player in the AHL at age 24, I can't really hope for any kind of career out of him. Hopefully, he is not, and his 14 game sample size mistreats him.

I think looking at the peak in terms of average age is simply wrong thinking.

Most players, forwards are coming into the league around 21/22 and their peak is 4 or so years after, but that doesn't mean that a player that takes a non-traditional path and gets to the NHL later is past his prime.

The wrong thinking in my opinion is that it is the "age" and not the time/experience.

So if we look at a player like Andy McDonald who played 4 years at Colgate and spent 2 years up and down with Anaheim and their AHL affiliate...We see a player that doesn't really kickoff their career until he is about 25 years old.

By your law of averages he should be producing at his peak at 26/27....But that is not what happens for Andy McDonald...He spends 3 years with average production then blew up at 28 years old. It simply is NOT the age, it is time and experience of those 3 prior years leading up to the break out.

2001-02 Anaheim Ducks NHL 53 7 21 28 - 25 years old - Rookie* (played 16 games the year before)
2002-03 Anaheim Ducks NHL 46 10 11 21 - 26 years old
2003-04 Anaheim Ducks NHL 79 9 21 30 - 27 years old
2005-06 Anaheim Ducks NHL 82 34 51 85 - 28 years old
2006-07 Anaheim Ducks NHL 82 27 51 78 - 29 years old


So yeah, the average peak maybe 26.7 for a player that takes a traditional path to the NHL...Judging players by those averages that take a non-traditional path and get here a little later is wrong thinking.

 

[devilsblood]

Since the 1997-1998 season, forwards on average peak in points/min at around age 26.7 and overall points at around age 27.7

The overall gist of what you're saying is about correct though because players are expected to reach around 90% of their peak production at age 24. If Coleman is actually a .5 p/g player in the AHL at age 24, I can't really hope for any kind of career out of him. Hopefully, he is not, and his 14 game sample size mistreats him.

Yeah I dunno if mistreats is the right word, or if we just shouldn't put to much weight in it. I for one don't.

I think if anyone is hanging their hopes on Coleman it is due more to the eye test then the #'s. I haven't seen him, so I can't make of a judgement in that regard, but the #'s are not overly encouraging.

The injury was unfortunate, I don't think it hurts his development, but if definitely stalls it. Needless to say, next season, as a 25 year old, will be huge. Need's to be impressive whether he is in Albany or NJ.

 

[devilsblood]

Problem with using the non traditional path guys as an example is, there are relatively few of them. You are hoping Coleman is an exception.

 

[JimEIV]

Problem with using the non traditional path guys as an example is, there are relatively few of them. You are hoping Coleman is an exception.

There really aren't few of them...There are a ton of them.

Just since the lockout here are some players in their rookie year and their age. Just since the 2005 lockout mind you....


Dustin Penner 2006-07 24
Anders Lee 2014-15 24
Matt Read 2011-12 25
Chris Kunitz 2005-06 26
Bryan Bickell 2010-11 24
Colin Greening 2011-12 25
Rene Bourque 2005-06 24
Ryane Clowe 2006-07 24
Ryan Craig 2005-06 24
Curtis Glencross 2007-08 25
Mark Letestu 2010-11 25
Johan Franzen 2005-06 26
John Mitchell 2008-09 24
Patrick Maroon 2013-14 25
Antti Miettinen 2005-06 25
Brandon Yip 2009-10 24
Joe Colborne 2013-14 24
Kurtis Foster 2005-06 24
Dave Moss 2006-07 25
Dominic Moore 2005-06 25
Viktor Stalberg 2009-10 24
Francois Beauchemin 2005-06 25
Carlo Colaiacovo 2006-07 24
David Desharnais 2010-11 24
Andrew Ebbett 2008-09 26
Matt Frattin 2011-12 24
Alexandre Burrows 2005-06 24
Ryan Jones 2008-09 24
Erik Condra 2010-11 24
Colin Fraser 2008-09 24
Colin Greening 2010-11 24
Ville Leino 2009-10 26
Freddy Meyer 2005-06 25
Johnny Boychuk 2009-10 26
Matt Moulson 2007-08 24
Rich Peverley 2007-08 25
David Steckel 2007-08 25
Chris Wideman 2015-16 26
Mark Arcobello 2013-14 25
Kevin Klein 2008-09 24
Zenon Konopka 2005-06 25



http://www.hockey-reference.com/pla...&c4comp=gt&c4val=&threshhold=5&order_by=goals

 

[devilsblood]

There really aren't few of them...There are a ton of them.

A ton? What's a ton? 10% of current NHL players?

What is the % of forwards whose first NHL action comes after their 25th b-day actually go on to score 15+ goals in a season?

I doubt it's even 10%.

 

[devilsblood]

Andy McDonald's 1st game in the NHL was as a 23 yr old. His rookie season was as a 24 yr old. (And for what it's worth, he had 58 points in 34 games as a senior in college).

And I agree it fit's with the idea that he didn't peak in NHL until an older age then most, but let's not skew the #'s.

But the first thing we need to have happen is Coleman actually playing some games in the NHL as a 25 yr old.

 

[Tretyak 20]

My top 10 would probably go something like:

1. Zacha
2. Blandisi
3. Boucher
4. Quenneville
5. Santini
6. Blackwood
7. Jacobs
8. Wood
9. Speers
10. Coleman

I like this list, but I would swap Blackwood and Santini, and also move Speers to 7th and Jacobs to 10th.

 

[NJDevs26]

There really aren't few of them...There are a ton of them.

Just since the lockout here are some players in their rookie year and their age. Just since the 2005 lockout mind you....


Dustin Penner 2006-07 24
Anders Lee 2014-15 24
Matt Read 2011-12 25
Chris Kunitz 2005-06 26
Bryan Bickell 2010-11 24
Colin Greening 2011-12 25
Rene Bourque 2005-06 24
Ryane Clowe 2006-07 24
Ryan Craig 2005-06 24
Curtis Glencross 2007-08 25
Mark Letestu 2010-11 25
Johan Franzen 2005-06 26
John Mitchell 2008-09 24
Patrick Maroon 2013-14 25
Antti Miettinen 2005-06 25
Brandon Yip 2009-10 24
Joe Colborne 2013-14 24
Kurtis Foster 2005-06 24
Dave Moss 2006-07 25
Dominic Moore 2005-06 25
Viktor Stalberg 2009-10 24
Francois Beauchemin 2005-06 25
Carlo Colaiacovo 2006-07 24
David Desharnais 2010-11 24
Andrew Ebbett 2008-09 26
Matt Frattin 2011-12 24
Alexandre Burrows 2005-06 24
Ryan Jones 2008-09 24
Erik Condra 2010-11 24
Colin Fraser 2008-09 24
Colin Greening 2010-11 24
Ville Leino 2009-10 26
Freddy Meyer 2005-06 25
Johnny Boychuk 2009-10 26
Matt Moulson 2007-08 24
Rich Peverley 2007-08 25
David Steckel 2007-08 25
Chris Wideman 2015-16 26
Mark Arcobello 2013-14 25
Kevin Klein 2008-09 24
Zenon Konopka 2005-06 25



http://www.hockey-reference.com/pla...&c4comp=gt&c4val=&threshhold=5&order_by=goals

You're forgetting an obvious one

http://devils.nhl.com/club/m_player.htm?id=8472410

Now I do agree 25+ players becoming NHL regulars are a vast minority...but as much as people knock Gio if Coleman can have that career I'd be happy with that

 

[devilsblood]

There really aren't few of them...There are a ton of them.

Just since the lockout here are some players in their rookie year and their age. Just since the 2005 lockout mind you....


Dustin Penner 2006-07 24
Anders Lee 2014-15 24
Matt Read 2011-12 25
Chris Kunitz 2005-06 26
Bryan Bickell 2010-11 24
Colin Greening 2011-12 25
Rene Bourque 2005-06 24
Ryane Clowe 2006-07 24
Ryan Craig 2005-06 24
Curtis Glencross 2007-08 25
Mark Letestu 2010-11 25
Johan Franzen 2005-06 26
John Mitchell 2008-09 24
Patrick Maroon 2013-14 25
Antti Miettinen 2005-06 25
Brandon Yip 2009-10 24
Joe Colborne 2013-14 24
Kurtis Foster 2005-06 24
Dave Moss 2006-07 25
Dominic Moore 2005-06 25
Viktor Stalberg 2009-10 24
Francois Beauchemin 2005-06 25
Carlo Colaiacovo 2006-07 24
David Desharnais 2010-11 24
Andrew Ebbett 2008-09 26
Matt Frattin 2011-12 24
Alexandre Burrows 2005-06 24
Ryan Jones 2008-09 24
Erik Condra 2010-11 24
Colin Fraser 2008-09 24
Colin Greening 2010-11 24
Ville Leino 2009-10 26
Freddy Meyer 2005-06 25
Johnny Boychuk 2009-10 26
Matt Moulson 2007-08 24
Rich Peverley 2007-08 25
David Steckel 2007-08 25
Chris Wideman 2015-16 26
Mark Arcobello 2013-14 25
Kevin Klein 2008-09 24
Zenon Konopka 2005-06 25



http://www.hockey-reference.com/pla...&c4comp=gt&c4val=&threshhold=5&order_by=goals

So in 10 years you have 40 or so guys. More then half of which whose rookie years was as a 24 yr old. Half of those guys played in the NHL before their rookie season.

A good portion of that list never became anything more then a journeyman player. I mean, Colin Fraser? Freddy Meyer? Colin Greening?

Coleman will be 25 at the start of next season and has yet to play an NHL game.

 

[JimEIV]

So in 10 years you have 40 or so guys. More then half of which whose rookie years was as a 24 yr old. Half of those guys played in the NHL before their rookie season.

A good portion of that list never became anything more then a journeyman player. I mean, Colin Fraser? Freddy Meyer? Colin Greening?

Coleman will be 25 at the start of next season and has yet to play an NHL game.

There is 100 on the list...I pulled out interesting ones