Top 20 Goaltending Prospects - Results

[MasterMatt25]

Hello everyone!

Over the past 20 days, I've conducted a set of daily polls to roughly determine who hfboards thought were the top 20 goaltending prospects in the NHL.

The requirements to be included were the goalie had to be under 25 years of age at the starting date of the first poll, and the goalie must have fewer than a total of 20 NHL games of experience.

In conclusion, these are the results:

#1: Carter Hart (PHI) [27.4%]
#2: Ilya Samsonov (WSH) [47.7%]
#3: Igor Shestyorkin (NYR) [34.7%]
#4: Ilya Sorokin (NYI) [32.5%]
#5: Thatcher Demko (VAN) [53.2%]
#6: Ville Husso (STL) [32.1%]
#7: Jake Oettinger (DAL) [32.8%]
#8: Filip Gustavsson (OTT) [22.0%]
#9: Colton Point (DAL) [23.5%]
#10: Michael DiPietro (VAN) [16.7%]
#11: Linus Soderstrom (NYI) [14.6%]
#12: Stuart Skinner (EDM) [31.3%]
#13: Tyler Parsons (CGY) [24.4%]
#14: Felix Sandstrom (PHI) [20.0%]
#15: Ukka-Pekka Luukkonen (BUF) [18.9%]
#16: Alexandar Georgiyev (NYR) [20.0%]
#17: Cayden Primeau (MTL) [30.0%]
#18: Kaapo Kahkonen (MIN) [17.9%]
#19: Jakub Skarek (NYI) [14.0%]
#20: Charlie Lindgren (MTL) [15.3%]

Also by calculating the amounts of votes all the other nominees had along the way, and taking into consideration the weight of each vote (which round they were cast), we can make a very rough estimation of the rest of the rankings:

#21: Alex Nedeljkovic (CAR)
#22: Joseph Woll (TOR)
#23: Elvis Merzlikins (CBJ)
#24: Olivier Rodrigue (EDM)
#25: Veini Vehvilainen (CBJ)
#26: Samuel Montembeault (FLA)
#27: Connor Ingram (TBL)
#28: Evan Fitzpatrick (STL)
#29: Eric Comrie (WPG)
#30: Marcus Hogberg (OTT)
#31: Griffen Outhouse (NA)
#32: Jeremy Swayman (BOS)
#33: Anthony Stolarz (PHI)
#34: Olle Eriksson Ek (ANA)
#35: Ivan Nalimov (CHI)
#36: Adam Huska (NYR)
#37: Cal Petersen (LAK)
#38: Filip Larsson (DET)
#39: Mackenzie Blackwood (NJD)
#40: Lukas Dostal (ANA)
#41: Michael McNiven (MTL)
#42: Daniel Vladar (BOS)

I hope this was interesting to you all. If you feel the results should have been different, or something I could have done to make this poll better, let me know.

Click to read more...

 

[Halla]

DiPietro is a 3rd rd pick, then puts up worse numbers on a worse team, but still gets top 10?

van fans flood these polls or what?

 

[Kcb12345]

Point>Oettinger

 

[Alwalys]

what use is a subjective poll of an un-normalized fanbase?

 

[CanuckGame39]

DiPietro is a 3rd rd pick, then puts up worse numbers on a worse team, but still gets top 10?

van fans flood these polls or what?

He was named CHL goalie of the year this year though. He had a great season last year. Will probably be Canada's #1 goalie at this years WJC.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

DiPietro is a 3rd rd pick, then puts up worse numbers on a worse team, but still gets top 10?

van fans flood these polls or what?

Lol. Oh the irony coming from you of all people.

 

[Atas2000]

Hart should get the Vezina right now I guess. Who was voting? Desperate Flyers fans?

Also it is always amazing how Samsonov gets rated that high only because of the draft pick. He is one of the top prospects, but what did he do on a pro level? Yet he notoriously gets rated higher than Sorokin and Shestyorkin who are hardly prospects by now, have seasons of pro experience as starters.

Just another example of how people in NA fail with evaluation of Russians. I see it in every draft and after the draft the fans pick up the hype. Samsonov might have a better career, they are all prospects, but for now he is way less proven and much more of an unknown.

 

[7even]

what use is a subjective poll of an un-normalized fanbase?

Entertainment.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

what use is a subjective poll of an un-normalized fanbase?

It is pretty useful, we get to see what fanbases pump their prospects' tires the most.

 

[FlyTimmo]

He was named CHL goalie of the year this year though. He had a great season last year. Will probably be Canada's #1 goalie at this years WJC.

I assume you mean he was the OHL goalie of the year, not CHL. Carter Hart won that award.

On a side note, how did McNiven win CHL goalie of the year in 2016-2017? Hart was a lot better.

 

[Snippit]

DiPietro is a 3rd rd pick, then puts up worse numbers on a worse team, but still gets top 10?

van fans flood these polls or what?

Toronto fans are more guilty of this than anyone else...by far.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

20-11-0 .914 2.33 as a 20/21 year old in the AHL only gets you 27th? Yikes

 

[VoluntaryDom]

That’s better than Parsons’ ECHL numbers LOL. Granted parsons is like 6 months younger.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Hart should get the Vezina right now I guess. Who was voting? Desperate Flyers fans?

Also it is always amazing how Samsonov gets rated that high only because of the draft pick. He is one of the top prospects, but what did he do on a pro level? Yet he notoriously gets rated higher than Sorokin and Shestyorkin who are hardly prospects by now, have seasons of pro experience as starters.

Just another example of how people in NA fail with evaluation of Russians. I see it in every draft and after the draft the fans pick up the hype. Samsonov might have a better career, they are all prospects, but for now he is way less proven and much more of an unknown.

Samsonov coming over this year so maybe fans don’t want the risk that he stays khl. I like Sorokin’s upside the most of the 3 but he might just stay in khl

 

[Atas2000]

Samsonov coming over this year so maybe fans don’t want the risk that he stays khl. I like Sorokin’s upside the most of the 3 but he might just stay in khl

Why would Sorokin do that? What's in it for him? Even a 30+ goes over. Sorokin is as eager as every athlete to at least give it a try.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Why would Sorokin do that? What's in it for him? Even a 30+ goes over. Sorokin is as eager as every athlete to at least give it a try.

Gusev never came over, neither did Mozyakin, Shipachyov didn’t for a while and when he did he immediately went back, it’s possible

 

[King'sPawn]

Can't really see Cal Petersen as 37th. But these are popularity polls anyway.

 

[Atas2000]

Gusev never came over, neither did Mozyakin, Shipachyov didn’t for a while and when he did he immediately went back, it’s possible

Your statement about Gusev is false. Why would he come over earlier? To play in the minors? Whatfor? He is not 35 or something. And he wasn't a top prospect in his draft year so he never had his phone full of wonderful offers from Tampa.

Your statement about Mozyakin is false. He played in the QMJHL. That is exactly what you expect from Russians. To come over to NA early. Obviously it hasn't worked out and it's not Mozyakin's fault obviously as he became one of the best forwards in the KHL.

I think everybody knows how the Shipachyov case unfolded. If your management is this dumb, who is to blame?

Goaltenders take longer to develop anyway. There is no indication whatsoever for Sorokin not coming over.

 

[MasterMatt25]

Your statement about Gusev is false. Why would he come over earlier? To play in the minors? Whatfor? He is not 35 or something. And he wasn't a top prospect in his draft year so he never had his phone full of wonderful offers from Tampa.

Your statement about Mozyakin is false. He played in the QMJHL. That is exactly what you expect from Russians. To come over to NA early. Obviously it hasn't worked out and it's not Mozyakin's fault obviously as he became one of the best forwards in the KHL.

I think everybody know how the Shipachyov case unfolded. If your management is tgis dumb, who is to blame?

Goaltenders take longer to develop anyway. There is no indicationwhatsoever for Sorokin not coming over.

I think Sorokin is coming over within the next 2 years

 

[ProspectsSTC]

Hart should get the Vezina right now I guess. Who was voting? Desperate Flyers fans?

Also it is always amazing how Samsonov gets rated that high only because of the draft pick. He is one of the top prospects, but what did he do on a pro level? Yet he notoriously gets rated higher than Sorokin and Shestyorkin who are hardly prospects by now, have seasons of pro experience as starters.

Just another example of how people in NA fail with evaluation of Russians. I see it in every draft and after the draft the fans pick up the hype. Samsonov might have a better career, they are all prospects, but for now he is way less proven and much more of an unknown.

Hart has been the most dominant goalie that North American junior hockey has seen in a long time. I'd say it's fair to put him in the same tier as a guy like Sorokin.

 

[Advanced stats]

With goalies, I think it's a common error to overvalue CHL and KHL results. Both leagues are completely different than the NHL and a lot of "incredible" goalie prospects never end up making it because they just can't adapt.

I find ahl results a lot more consistent with NHL success. The vast majority of NHL goalies have gone through the AHL.
This isn't a personal attack on any prospect, but don't be surprised if most of the top 10 on this list are just Middling goalies or backups.

 

[Bounces R Way]

Good idea OP, always found goalies are a little harder to keep track of and rate for some reason.

Would of thought Parsons could of gone in the top 10 considering he's already got a Memorial Cup and a World Junior Championship under his belt. As well as having the best SV% in the OHL in 2016-17(tbf the London Knights were all sorts of stacked). Guess one mediocre year in the ECHL as the league's youngest goalie is enough to hurt his rating.

Personally would have Nedeljkovic and Ingram in my top 20.

 

[Cor]

Tyler Parsons and Joseph Woll should be ranked higher.

 

[Icebreakers]

DiPietro is a 3rd rd pick, then puts up worse numbers on a worse team, but still gets top 10?

van fans flood these polls or what?

Your post makes no sense.


He posted worse numbers on a worse team.... No shit. 90% of that mem cup team left.

It was one of the worst teams in the ohl and he still put up a .910.


You know he won OHL goalie of the year right?

He was brilliant this year.

 

[Icebreakers]

The only thing I have against some of the Russian goalies is that their back ups/teammates have better numbers than them

Sorokins back up had a 1.39 gaa and a 9.38 in 21 games. Those are video game numbers lol that team was so dominant.


Samsonov was the back up for team and the other goalies numbers were much better with more games played.


Shestorkin was also the back up for Koskinen who put up video game numbers as well.

1.57 gaa, .937 SVP 22-4 record...


The teams those goalies are on are unbelievably stacked.

Shestorkin team 46-8
Sorokin team 44-8

Samsonov team was the only team that wasn't stacked .