Prospect Info: Top 20 Flyers Prospects, #5

[sobrien]

I'm suprised McGinn isn't getting more votes. People are ready to pencil him in as the third line winger on this team, but he isn't in the top five for prospects? I get not being higher than Laughton, Morin, and Haag, but he's gotta be at least #4 or #5.

Lower ceiling. There's no way McGinn should be in the same conversation as most of these guys. I think he's a fringe NHLer at best. I'm glad he didn't look out of place up here last year, but I'm not locking a spot down for him for 5 points in 18 games, most of which with skilled players.

 

[Damaged Goods]

I don't understand why a low-end prospect would get such a boost in these rankings because he is close to being NHL roster filler. Even if McGinn pans out, he will still be an easily replaceable player.

 

[Appleyard]

I know he will not come high up on these rankings, but one guy who could surprise a lot of people in the future is Vasiliev.

Guy will never be a point producer, but he is a very good defensive player, playing in the KHL as a 19 year old, and was (in terms of talent) considered as a guy who could have gone in the 2nd round in his draft year, and would certainly have gone higher if he was not Russian.

He was also the 1st ranked Russian defenceman in his KHL draft year.

I also think he will come over to North America, especially after the Waterloo rumblings earlier this year. I read that he didn't as he thought the opportunity of playing in the KHL was too good, through deduction it would seem after he had the idea of going to the USHL they bribed him not to with the KHL chance, as he had stopped playing in Russia for a while and it seemed set he would come to the USHL! Though feel free to correct me if this intuition is factually incorrect!

 

[Sniped]

Cousins, Stolarz is still too up in the air for me to put ahead of cousins.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

Lower ceiling. There's no way McGinn should be in the same conversation as most of these guys. I think he's a fringe NHLer at best. I'm glad he didn't look out of place up here last year, but I'm not locking a spot down for him for 5 points in 18 games, most of which with skilled players.

I think his (realistic) ceiling is about the same as Ghost, Stolarz, and Cousins. I think people get fixated on guys around here and have unrealistic expectations. Ghost is going to be at best a top four guy (more realistically a bottom pair guy). Stolarz I could actually see turning into something, but for me I just would never rank a goalie in the top five prospects of the organization just because goalies are so boom or bust. Cousins I think has the same ceiling as McGinn (top nine) just in a different role. I'm just surprised to see people saying they don't want to sign Gagne to a one year deal because they want Tye McGinn to be the third line winger, then say the guy is not a top five prospect. I'd rather have Gagne there and I still think McGinn is the better prospect.

I don't understand why a low-end prospect would get such a boost in these rankings because he is close to being NHL roster filler. Even if McGinn pans out, he will still be an easily replaceable player.

See above.

 

[sobrien]

I think his (realistic) ceiling is about the same as Ghost, Stolarz, and Cousins. I think people get fixated on guys around here and have unrealistic expectations. Ghost is going to be at best a top four guy (more realistically a bottom pair guy). Stolarz I could actually see turning into something, but for me I just would never rank a goalie in the top five prospects of the organization just because goalies are so boom or bust. Cousins I think has the same ceiling as McGinn (top nine) just in a different role. I'm just surprised to see people saying they don't want to sign Gagne to a one year deal because they want Tye McGinn to be the third line winger, then say the guy is not a top five prospect. I'd rather have Gagne there and I still think McGinn is the better prospect.



See above.

I agree with Cousins' ceiling being the same as McGinn's, but I don't know how you can compare Ghost's and Stolarz's. I think McGinn's absolute ceiling is a 3rd liner, and like mentioned before, he'll be replaceable for someone with more skill. I don't think he defends well enough to be a 4th liner.

 

[Prongo]

I think his (realistic) ceiling is about the same as Ghost, Stolarz, and Cousins. I think people get fixated on guys around here and have unrealistic expectations. Ghost is going to be at best a top four guy (more realistically a bottom pair guy). Stolarz I could actually see turning into something, but for me I just would never rank a goalie in the top five prospects of the organization just because goalies are so boom or bust. Cousins I think has the same ceiling as McGinn (top nine) just in a different role. I'm just surprised to see people saying they don't want to sign Gagne to a one year deal because they want Tye McGinn to be the third line winger, then say the guy is not a top five prospect. I'd rather have Gagne there and I still think McGinn is the better prospect.

I love how we around here just throw out "Ghost will be at best a top 4 guy" but "more realistically a bottom pairing guy" like we know how they will translate when they play in the NHL. How can you or anyone for the matter, say he won't be a #2 or even reach his max potential. You have seen very little of him most likely, but speak in almost guarantees

The Flyers front office and Homer are very high on Ghost, and love his potential. They have called him a top tier defensive prospect, but posters on HF say he won't amount to much. I don't understand how you come up with these predictions(not just you, but everyone.)

Let these kids sign a ELC before saying they won't amount to anything more than a bottom pairing defender most likely. Shoot, they haven't even stepped on the NHL ice yet.

Also we all so desperately want big potential defenders, but when we draft defenders, everyone around here looks to devalue them. I just can't understand it. I am not saying he is going to be the next coming of Jesus, I am saying before labeling him, let's see how he does when he gets with the big club before passing judgement. All I have done repeatedly about Ghost is state how the Flyers feel about him, but Hf posters know better than our scouts these days.

 

[Stizzle]

http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=678716

 

[BernieParent]

I love how we around here just throw out "Ghost will be at best a top 4 guy" but "more realistically a bottom pairing guy" like we know how they will translate when they play in the NHL. How can you or anyone for the matter, say he won't be a #2 or even reach his max potential. You have seen very little of him most likely, but speak in almost guarantees

The Flyers front office and Homer are very high on Ghost, and love his potential. They have called him a top tier defensive prospect, but posters on HF say he won't amount to much. I don't understand how you come up with these predictions(not just you, but everyone.)

Let these kids sign a ELC before saying they won't amount to anything more than a bottom pairing defender most likely. Shoot, they haven't even stepped on the NHL ice yet.

Also we all so desperately want big potential defenders, but when we draft defenders, everyone around here looks to devalue them. I just can't understand it. I am not saying he is going to be the next coming of Jesus, I am saying before labeling him, let's see how he does when he gets with the big club before passing judgement. All I have done repeatedly about Ghost is state how the Flyers feel about him, but Hf posters know better than our scouts these days.

So, not Holy Ghost?

 

[Broad Street Elite]

http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=678716

One side note on this story, Ghost is up to 170lbs. He's but on 10 pounds this offseason. The Flyers asked him for 10 more.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

I love how we around here just throw out "Ghost will be at best a top 4 guy" but "more realistically a bottom pairing guy" like we know how they will translate when they play in the NHL. How can you or anyone for the matter, say he won't be a #2 or even reach his max potential. You have seen very little of him most likely, but speak in almost guarantees

The Flyers front office and Homer are very high on Ghost, and love his potential. They have called him a top tier defensive prospect, but posters on HF say he won't amount to much. I don't understand how you come up with these predictions(not just you, but everyone.)

Let these kids sign a ELC before saying they won't amount to anything more than a bottom pairing defender most likely. Shoot, they haven't even stepped on the NHL ice yet.

Also we all so desperately want big potential defenders, but when we draft defenders, everyone around here looks to devalue them. I just can't understand it. I am not saying he is going to be the next coming of Jesus, I am saying before labeling him, let's see how he does when he gets with the big club before passing judgement. All I have done repeatedly about Ghost is state how the Flyers feel about him, but Hf posters know better than our scouts these days.

First of all, you are making the argument I usually make about HF people knowing better than the scouts. Not cool. Usually I say that and then ten other people will chime in and call me a sheep and tell me that I am just a blind Homer lover or something for not questioning every single possible move becuase Bill Meltzer and EuroFlyers Tweeted something.

Second of all, I don't think it is really disputed that Ghost's max potential is a top four defender. I mean are you really going to tell me you think that he could be a top pair guy? The reason I say it is more likely for him to be a bottom pair guy is because I am realistically tempering my expectations. Lots of guys have a ton of potential, but not everyone reaches their potential. Ghost is too far away IMO to rank him this high based on potential, especially for a guy his size wanting to play D in the NHL. I'm not saying he WON'T reach his potential or he CAN'T reach his potential, only that it is far too speculative at this point to put him over a guy like McGinn who could very well be a third line winger in the NHL this year (which is right around where his potential is). I really don't think that these statements are too outlandish.

 

[dawkins121]

First of all, you are making the argument I usually make about HF people knowing better than the scouts. Not cool. Usually I say that and then ten other people will chime in and call me a sheep and tell me that I am just a blind Homer lover or something for not questioning every single possible move becuase Bill Meltzer and EuroFlyers Tweeted something.

Second of all, I don't think it is really disputed that Ghost's max potential is a top four defender. I mean are you really going to tell me you think that he could be a top pair guy? The reason I say it is more likely for him to be a bottom pair guy is because I am realistically tempering my expectations. Lots of guys have a ton of potential, but not everyone reaches their potential. Ghost is too far away IMO to rank him this high based on potential, especially for a guy his size wanting to play D in the NHL. I'm not saying he WON'T reach his potential or he CAN'T reach his potential, only that it is far too speculative at this point to put him over a guy like McGinn who could very well be a third line winger in the NHL this year (which is right around where his potential is). I really don't think that these statements are too outlandish.

Yeah exactly. We still aren't sure what we have in Gustaffson let alone any of the guys drafted in the last couple years. A lot of D-men have crazy learning curves so you have to temper your expectations a little bit.

 

[FlyersFan61290]

I think his (realistic) ceiling is about the same as Ghost, Stolarz, and Cousins. I think people get fixated on guys around here and have unrealistic expectations. Ghost is going to be at best a top four guy (more realistically a bottom pair guy). Stolarz I could actually see turning into something, but for me I just would never rank a goalie in the top five prospects of the organization just because goalies are so boom or bust. Cousins I think has the same ceiling as McGinn (top nine) just in a different role. I'm just surprised to see people saying they don't want to sign Gagne to a one year deal because they want Tye McGinn to be the third line winger, then say the guy is not a top five prospect. I'd rather have Gagne there and I still think McGinn is the better prospect.



See above.

Respectfully disagree. I see McGinn as a good 4th liner who has the potential to be a solid 3rd liner. I think when Cousins is McGinn's age (three years) he'll be a solid 3rd liner with potential to be more. In other words I see McGinn as a bottom six and Cousins as a top 9.

Potential is why I did not and will not vote McGinn. When I say "will not" I mean there are more then a few others left on the board that I would rank above him.

 

[sobrien]

One side note on this story, Ghost is up to 170lbs. He's but on 10 pounds this offseason. The Flyers asked him for 10 more.

That's good. I think his NHL playing weight SHOULD be about 190, but will likely end up around 180-185.

 

[Broad Street Elite]

That's good. I think his NHL playing weight SHOULD be about 190, but will likely end up around 180-185.

Agreed, but the impression I got was that the Flyers wanted 20 lbs this offseason, which is a lot of muscle for younger guy to add. If he can get to 185, I'm certain he can be effective coming into the league at 22-23. As he matures into his mid-late 20s, I'm sure he'll add a bit more to get to 190 or more.

 

[jd2210]

http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=678716

Check out some of the comments under the article if you want a good laugh.

 

[Damaged Goods]

See above.

That didn't address any of the points I have been making. I am not breathless about Cousins, Stolarz or Ghostisbehere. But McGinn is an even lower-tier prospect than they are. NHL readiness is a good tie-breaker for prospects of the same ilk, but Cousins at 18 was comparable to McGinn at 20. The less upside a prospect holds, the less his NHL-readiness is worth. Based on their performance at the same level, Cousins easily trumps McGinn in offensive ability. Perhaps you can say McGinn is more projectable because of his size, but his physical tools weren't deemed draft-worthy until his was an over-ager (and 50+ picks later in his draft than Cousins was taken).

Age 16
Nick Cousins -- 67 GP, 32 P
Tye McGinn -- N/A

Age 17
Nick Cousins -- 68 GP, 68 P
Tye McGinn -- 59 GP, 11 P

Age 18
Nick Cousins -- 65 GP, 88 P
Tye McGinn -- 48 GP, 30 P

Age 19
Nick Cousins -- 64 GP, 103 P
Tye McGinn -- 50 GP, 62 P

Age 20
Nick Cousins -- N/A
Tye McGinn -- 42 GP, 64 P

Respectfully disagree. I see McGinn as a good 4th liner who has the potential to be a solid 3rd liner. I think when Cousins is McGinn's age (three years) he'll be a solid 3rd liner with potential to be more. In other words I see McGinn as a bottom six and Cousins as a top 9.

Potential is why I did not and will not vote McGinn. When I say "will not" I mean there are more then a few others left on the board that I would rank above him.

"Bottom 6" vs "middle 6," in other words.

 

[FlyersFan61290]

"Bottom 6" vs "middle 6," in other words.

Exactly, at least that's how I see them.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

That didn't address any of the points I have been making. I am not breathless about Cousins, Stolarz or Ghostisbehere. But McGinn is an even lower-tier prospect than they are. NHL readiness is a good tie-breaker for prospects of the same ilk, but Cousins at 18 was comparable to McGinn at 20. The less upside a prospect holds, the less his NHL-readiness is worth. Based on their performance at the same level, Cousins easily trumps McGinn in offensive ability. Perhaps you can say McGinn is more projectable because of his size, but his physical tools weren't deemed draft-worthy until his was an over-ager (and 50+ picks later in his draft than Cousins was taken).

So are we now projecting Cousins to be more than third liner? I have been under the impression that Cousins will likely be a third liner in the NHL. That was what McGinn has the potential to be. I don't care who scored more points when they were 16 playing in juniors. McGinn projects to be a third liner, power forward type player, and could very well take that role this year depending on how things shake out. Cousins projects to be a third liner, sandpaper type player, in a couple years. Unless you are going to tell me that Cousins' is now projected to be a second liner, I am not sure why we wouldn't put their ceilings on the same level, and use the NHL-readiness factor as a tie-breaker.

 

[BringBackHakstol]

So are we now projecting Cousins to be more than third liner? I have been under the impression that Cousins will likely be a third liner in the NHL. That was what McGinn has the potential to be. I don't care who scored more points when they were 16 playing in juniors. McGinn projects to be a third liner, power forward type player, and could very well take that role this year depending on how things shake out. Cousins projects to be a third liner, sandpaper type player, in a couple years. Unless you are going to tell me that Cousins' is now projected to be a second liner, I am not sure why we wouldn't put their ceilings on the same level, and use the NHL-readiness factor as a tie-breaker.

Cousins has significantly more offensive upside.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

Cousins has significantly more offensive upside.

I don't know that I would say significantly more offensive upside. Their roles are going to be very different. McGinn is going to be a power forward crash the net, Scott Hartnell type of guy. Cousins is going to be more of a sandpaper running around, Sean Avery type of guy. Cousins could get more points, but what McGinn lacks in points he will have a bigger impact on things that don't show up on the score sheet. Again, I think their ceilings are pretty much on the same level, with McGinn ready to take the next step possibly this season.