Prospect Info: Top 20 Flyers Prospects, #4

[tymed]

I had to go with Cousins here. I'm not overly familiar with the workings of the collegiate routes of development and can't say i've heard of any sort of pedestal that route has been put on (as far as Ghost goes) and over Stolarz because I can't say I have much of an eye for goaltending talent whatsoever...being Canadian and a Flyers fan has left me in the dark regarding this position.

Cousins has got to be the most solid prospect for this spot and the biggest guarantee to churn out an NHL career. This isn't to knock any of the others mentioned players as I hold them in similar high regard and optimism.

I find it a bit baffling that this particular poll is such a landslide seeing as how Cousins was cut and dry 2nd behind Laughton in the same poll last year and I cant even remember that Ghost was voted into top 5, yet, according to some quotes in here I must be misguided and misinformed to hold this opinion. I beg to differ, ofcourse.

What is it that Ghost did this year that I missed, thats vaulted him so clearly above Cousins who finished 3rd in OHL regular season scoring at 19 with peanuts for a supporting cast? Surely it wasnt his showing at the WJC, which was impressive in it's own right.

If im so misinformed here I would really appreciate if someone could highlight a few reasons for the big swing here.

Nicks the type of prospect that the Flyers have great strength in choosing, Oh and happy belated to Cousins who turned 20 yesterday.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

I think I would put Ghost behind McGinn and maybe even Cousins. He just seems like he is too far away and still too much of a wild card. Could wind up a regular NHLer or could wind up a nobody. He's only 20 and he's playing well in the college ranks, but I'm not convinced he is a look to be anything at this point. Not throwing him away or anything, just not ready to rank him higher than a guy like McGinn who has played in the NHL already and is much closer to being a regular NHLer than Ghost.

 

[Damaged Goods]

C'mon dude, think a little. I said they had some similarities in their game. You went on about what leagues they were playing in so I replied they were similar physically. Comparing players physically does not just mean stature. Physical tools are also included.

They are both undersized guys with wiry frames. They are plus skaters (Karlsson is a notch above, one of the best in the league when healthy). They both have very good shots despite their slender builds. Karlsson has a wicked wrister and a pretty good slapper to boot. Gostisbehere as we have seen has a bomb of a shot as well. They have the ability to lug the puck from end to end. Karlsson had troubles in his own end early in his career and has become more than respectable in that regard. Gostisbehere seems to be on the same path.

Now as I said in my original post I am not projecting Gostisbhere to be Karlsson, that would be foolish of me to even suggest that. All I said was they have a lot of similarities in their game and their physical tools. He could be a poor man's Karlsson of some sort if everything pan's out.

If he doesn't have a brain like Karlsson's, then the physical similarities aren't likely to come to much. Players like Karlsson are special because they think the game a step ahead, and that's why he was identified as a special player from a young age. I wouldn't get so excited about Ghost yet.

 

[tuckrr]

The Flyers consider Ghost a blue chip prospect, so I don't think the middle-rung description is accurate.

You have a low threshold for 'blue chip'

 

[sa cyred]

You have a low threshold for 'blue chip'

It was someone (can't remember who) on the Flyers who said Ghost was a top player in the organization. Unless you think they have a low threshold.

 

[CS]

It was someone (can't remember who) on the Flyers who said Ghost was a top player in the organization. Unless you think they have a low threshold.

When the organization pretty much comes out and says you have an NHL future, they generally mean it. See: Rinaldo, Zac.

That said, Gostisbehere has already jumped a lot of defensemen from his 2011/'93 class.

Here is the list of defensemen picked in the first three rounds of 2011...

NOTE: An asterisk implies that the player made the WJCs or was in the NHL.

1st-----------------------
*Adam Larsson (4) - SWE
*Dougie Hamilton (9) - CAN
*Jonas Brodin (10) - SWE
Duncan Siemens (11) - CAN
*Ryan Murphy (12) - CAN
*Jamie Oleksiak (14) - CAN
*Nathan Beaulieu (17) - CAN
*Oscar Klefbom (19) - SWE
*Connor Murphy (20) - USA
Joe Morrow (23) - CAN
Stuart Percy (25) - CAN
2nd-----------------------
*David Musil (31) - CZE
Scott Mayfield (34) - USA
*Adam Clendening (36) - USA
Joel Edmundson (46) - CAN
*Xavier Oullet (48) - CAN
*Scott Harrington (54) - CAN
Ryan Sproul (55) - CAN
*Tyler Wotherspoon (57) - CAN
*Rasmus Bengtsson (59) - SWE
3rd-----------------------
Andrei Pedan (63) - RUS
Michael Paliotta (70) - USA
Keegan Lowe (73) - USA
Brennan Serville (78) - CAN
Klas Dahlbeck (79) - SWE
Andrew Welinski (83) - USA
Harrisson Ruopp (84) - CAN
Jonathan Racine (87) - CAN
Justin Sefton (89) - CAN

So 14 of 29 were WJC caliber defensemen, or 48%.

73 defensemen were drafted in 2011 making the number 19%.

Next up is the year that Gostisbehere was picked, the 2012/'94 class...

1st-----------------------
*Ryan Murray (2) - CAN
*Griffin Reinhart (4) - CAN
*Morgan Reilly (5) - CAN
Matt Dumba (7) - CAN
Derrick Pouliot (8) - CAN
*Jacob Trouba (9) - USA
Slater Koekkoek (10) - CAN
Cody Ceci (15) - CAN
*Olli Maata (22) - FIN
Mike Matheson (23) - CAN
Jordan Schmaltz (25) - USA
Brady Skjei - (28) - USA
2nd-----------------------
*Ville Pokka (34) - FIN
Matt Finn (35) - CAN
Dylan Blujus (40) - USA
*Patrick Sieloff (42) - USA
Ludvig Bystrom (43) - SWE
*Jake McCabe (44) - USA
Dillon Fournier (48) - CAN
Dalton Thrower (51) - CAN
Damon Severson (60) - CAN
3rd-----------------------
Adam Pelech (65) - CAN
John Draeger (68) - USA
Esa Lindell (74) - FIN
*Shayne Gostisbehere (78) - USA
Matt Grzelcyk (85) - USA
Colton Parayko (86) - CAN
James Melindy (88) - CAN

So 8 of 28 were WJC caliber defensemen, or 28%.

76 defensemen were drafted in 2012 making the number 10%.

Let's inflate the numbers a bit to account for some of the younger ones that will still make the WJC and all the late rounders who might've made other teams outside of the big ones.

I'll round the 2011 number up to 20% and double the 2012 number up to 20%. That's pretty generous.

That puts Gostisbehere in the top 20% at least of defensemen drafted. Granted, going by WJC play isn't a perfect system, but it demonstrates fairly well what people expect from specific players.

With that generous 20% and assuming that 75 defensemen are taken on average from a draft class, we can assume that Gostisbehere realistically falls in the top 15 of defensemen taken per year.

So basically...possibly very late 1st at best or top 40 in the draft at least. So 25-40 range.

Does that make him a bluechip?

 

[Patrick Division]

Not to nit pick but I count 9 * in Ghost's draft year not 8.

Nice post/math equation though.

 

[CS]

Not to nit pick but I count 9 * in Ghost's draft year not 8.

Forgot to include Gostisbehere haha.

 

[BackWithaVengeance]

Duncan Siemens may never become a significant defender. The Avalanche probably regret the pick. Who would pick him that early?

-----> <-----

 

[CS]

Duncan Siemens may never become a significant defender. The Avalanche probably regret the pick. Who would pick him that early?

-----> <-----

I don't pay very much credence to the rumor that we liked him over Hamilton or that we would've picked him if not for Couturier.

 

[BackWithaVengeance]

I don't pay very much credence to the rumor that we liked him over Hamilton or that we would've picked him if not for Couturier.

Well, if we'd talk about a forward I wouldn't believe it a split second. Since it's a defender with a size and a mean streak, you never know.

 

[CS]

Well, if we'd talk about a forward I wouldn't believe it a split second. Since it's a defender with a size and a mean streak, you never know.

Well, the fact that they went with Morin at 11 doesn't necessarily prove that the Flyers would've picked the big guy in Hamilton who could've eventually replaced Pronger, but I struggle to think they would've passed on Dougie at that juncture.

 

[Damaged Goods]

When the organization pretty much comes out and says you have an NHL future, they generally mean it. See: Rinaldo, Zac.

That said, Gostisbehere has already jumped a lot of defensemen from his 2011/'93 class.

[...]

That puts Gostisbehere in the top 20% at least of defensemen drafted. Granted, going by WJC play isn't a perfect system, but it demonstrates fairly well what people expect from specific players.

With that generous 20% and assuming that 75 defensemen are taken on average from a draft class, we can assume that Gostisbehere realistically falls in the top 15 of defensemen taken per year.

So basically...possibly very late 1st at best or top 40 in the draft at least. So 25-40 range.

Does that make him a bluechip?

It's harder to make the Canada WJC roster than the US. That's not an apples-to-apples comparison. At most, it's evidence that Gostisbehere has jumped several US-born defenders.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

It's harder to make the Canada WJC roster than the US. That's not an apples-to-apples comparison. At most, it's evidence that Gostisbehere has jumped several US-born defenders.

I wouldn't even use the WJC as evidence of him jumping other defensemen especially when the US team doesn't always pick the most talented players but the ones that fill a role & complete the team. They don't just run all-star teams out there like Canada does.

 

[CS]

It's harder to make the Canada WJC roster than the US. That's not an apples-to-apples comparison. At most, it's evidence that Gostisbehere has jumped several US-born defenders.

I pointed out specifically that it wasn't supposed to be conclusive evidence but at least thought-provoking.

I'm not here trying to change your mind, only to make you think differently.

I don't think Gostisbehere is a "bluechip" as in a top 50 NHL prospect, but I think he flirts with the loose definition of "bluechip."

 

[FLYguy3911]

If he doesn't have a brain like Karlsson's, then the physical similarities aren't likely to come to much. Players like Karlsson are special because they think the game a step ahead, and that's why he was identified as a special player from a young age. I wouldn't get so excited about Ghost yet.

There you have it guys. Don't get excited.