Speculation: Top 20 Edmonton Oilers of Importance

[CupofOil]

Just thought of making this thread as I drink my morning tea.
I was listening to The Oil Stream podcast last night and they were doing segments of the top 20 Oilers of importance, 5 at a time until they get to #1 so I figured this could generate some discussion while we wait for preseason to start.
Here's mine... 20-1 to make it more dramatic

20) Murray
19) Holloway (Wild Card #1 but keeping him lower for now because there's a good chance he doesn't start with the Oilers)
18) Janmark
17) Foegele
16) Ryan
15) Broberg (Wild Card #2. Lower for now but the growth potential could lead to a top 4 role before seasons' end, which would be a good thing of course)
14) Barrie
13) Puljujarvi
12) Yamamoto
11) McLeod (placed higher importance on him due to #3C being more pivotal than 3rd cog middle 6 wing)
10) Kulak
9) Kane (I have him lower than RNH and Hyman because he doesn't touch as many areas of the game as they do even though he brings that different dimension)
8) Bouchard
7) RNH
6) Hyman
5) Ceci (I have Ceci this high because I feel he's the only shutdown guy on the roster, I'm not sure that Bouchard is ready for a tough minutes role if Ceci goes down for an extended period. Maybe Barrie fills that role? I don't know, I just feel that Ceci is their 2nd most important Dman as of today.
4) Campbell
3) Draisaitl
2) Nurse (controversial one but if Nurse goes down, Kulak is your top pairing LD whereas Drai goes down and they have plenty of quality forward depth to compensate including the best player in the world)
1) McDavid

That was harder than I thought. What say you guys.

Click to read more...

 

[bone]

Just thought of making this thread as I drink my morning tea.
I was listening to The Oil Stream podcast last night and they were doing segments of the top 20 Oilers of importance, 5 at a time until they get to #1 so I figured this could generate some discussion while we wait for preseason to start.
Here's mine... 20-1 to make it more dramatic

20) Murray
19) Holloway (Wild Card #1 but keeping him lower for now because there's a good chance he doesn't start with the Oilers)
18) Janmark
17) Foegele
16) Ryan
15) Broberg (Wild Card #2. Lower for now but the growth potential could lead to a top 4 role before seasons' end, which would be a good thing of course)
14) Barrie
13) Puljujarvi
12) Yamamoto
11) McLeod (placed higher importance on him due to #3C being more pivotal than 3rd cog middle 6 wing)
10) Kulak
9) Kane (I have him lower than RNH and Hyman because he doesn't touch as many areas of the game as they do even though he brings that different dimension)
8) Bouchard
7) RNH
6) Hyman
5) Ceci (I have Ceci this high because I feel he's the only shutdown guy on the roster, I'm not sure that Bouchard is ready for a tough minutes role if Ceci goes down for an extended period. Maybe Barrie fills that role? I don't know, I just feel that Ceci is their 2nd most important Dman as of today.
4) Campbell
3) Draisaitl
2) Nurse (controversial one but if Nurse goes down, Kulak is your top pairing LD whereas Drai goes down and they have plenty of quality forward depth to compensate including the best player in the world)
1) McDavid

That was harder than I thought. What say you guys.

Good list, bickering over a spot or two for anyone past 7 or 8, doesn't matter, but I would put Nurse number 1 though as the drop off on the left side from him to the 2nd best is a big drop, and then again the next best becomes just question marks in Murray or Broberg. Either as a 2nd pairing left dman is a scary proposition particularly since Murray doesn't seem to play a lot of games in a row and doesn't appear to have the ability to play 20+ minutes often anymore.

At least with McDavid and Draisaitl, if either goes down, we have the other with some growing depth knowing that RNH and McLeod can handle 2nd or 3rd line centre duties. Yeah, the drop in quality of the 2nd centre drops significantly, but the growing winger depth also minimizes that impact enough that you can still put together a 2nd line that wouldn't be a complete black hole.

Also your 2 wild card could possibly rank a lot higher as ultimately they become the injury insurance that will become essential if any of the top 5 go down.

I'd also have Skinner in the top 10 since Campbell has never started more than 49 games in his career. So we need Skinner to be able to deliver a minimum of 20 decent starts or we may see burnout on Campbell by playoffs.

 

[Jumptheshark]

Sorry. Goaltenders are 1 and 2. If they fail we are fooked

 

[Aerchon]

Goaltenders are far more important than forwards. Even ones as amazing as McDrai. NHL forwards just dont have the impact on winning even in comparison to other sports.

McDavid can not win a game himself. A goaltender can. Extremely difficult, but they can. McDavid is only on the ice for 1/3 the game.

Its not even close. The way the cap hit of McDavid/superstars is set up in the NHL is stupid. Defensemen in most cases also typically have more impact on winning than forwards. Centers typically more important than wingers. You could almost use ice time and special teams as well to be a good indicator of importance.

Edit: Cap come into play as well.

Just for fun.

1. Campbell.
2. Skinner.




3. McDavid
4. Draisaitl
5. Nurse
6. Ceci
7. Bouchard
8. Kulak
9. Kane
10. RNH
11. Hyman
12. Murray
13. Demers
14. Pulj
15. Yama
16. McLeod
17. Ryan
18. Janmark
19. Holloway
20. Foegele

 

[Forgot About Drai]

I would have bouch higher then RNH just in the sense, we kind of know what we are getting in RNH but in Bouch takes a step it will be huge for us.

 

[SwedishFire]

Nuge as a 3rd liner is not top 5 as importance piece.

Campbell
Skinner
McDavid
Draisaitl
Nurse
Ceci
Hyman
Kane
Bouchard
Nuge
Kulak
MacLeod
Barrie
Puljujärvi (bigger talent)
Yamamoto
Broberg
Fogele
Järnmark
Holloway
Ryan
Murray
Samurukov
Shore
(Demers)
Malone
(Virtanen)
Niemilainen
Benson

 

[Fourier]

Goaltenders are far more important than forwards. Even ones as amazing as McDrai. NHL forwards just dont have the impact on winning even in comparison to other sports.

McDavid can not win a game himself. A goaltender can. Extremely difficult, but they can. McDavid is only on the ice for 1/3 the game.

Its not even close. The way the cap hit of McDavid/superstars is set up in the NHL is stupid. Defensemen in most cases also typically have more impact on winning than forwards. Centers typically more important than wingers. You could almost use ice time and special teams as well to be a good indicator of importance.

Edit: Cap come into play as well.

Just for fun.

1. Campbell.
2. Skinner.




3. McDavid
4. Draisaitl
5. Nurse
6. Ceci
7. Bouchard
8. Kulak
9. Kane
10. RNH
11. Hyman
12. Murray
13. Demers
14. Pulj
15. Yama
16. McLeod
17. Ryan
18. Janmark
19. Holloway
20. Foegele

Interesting take...But how can you possibly say that McDavid cannot win a game by himself after watching him play all these years? It seems almost impossible to me to see a ranking of most important players with Skinner ahead of McDavid.

That said, in reality, by the literal meaning of the phrase no player actually wins a game all by themselves. Even a goalie since they rarely score with the other goalie in the net and you don't win many games scoring 0 goals.

The difference between league average goaltending vs poor goaltending and near league best is significant. But probably only 10 points or less in the standings in either direction. It would be pretty easy to make a case that losing McDavid for the whole season would cost this team more.

 

[FlameChampion]

Before I read the replies I thought Skinner should be pretty high. When he’s about to play 30ish games and theres probably a decent chance that Campbell suffers some kind of injury, he has a pretty large impact on the good portion of games. I think he’s in the top 10 for sure.

Campbell is likely in the top 4.

Its an interesting exercise though. Helps put some things in perspective.

 

[jukon]

I get that this is a fun exercise for fans to discuss.

But I would say that all six players on the ice at any time (goalie included) are equally important, every second of every shift. Just because McDavid is expected to put up 100+ points and Holloway isn't even guaranteed to make the team, does that make their shifts any less important?

Boring answer, I know. Sorry.

+ Coaching staff, cuz you didn't say just players. It's key to have the right players on the ice at the right times.

 

[Rengorlex]

Interesting take...But how can you possibly say that McDavid cannot win a game by himself after watching him play all these years? It seems almost impossible to me to see a ranking of most important players with Skinner ahead of McDavid.

In reality no player actually wins a game all by themselves. Even a goalie since they rarely score with the other goalie in the net and you don't win many games scoring 0 goals.

The difference between league average goaltending vs poor goaltending and near league best is significant. But probably only 10 points or less in the standings in either direction. It would be pretty easy to make a case that losing McDavid for the whole season would cost this team more.

Yeah. Either Campbell or Skinner could go down with a career ending injury. It wouldn't alter the trajectory of the franchise at all. McDavid, on the other hand...

The goaltending being great or poor is absolutely humongous, but the problem is that we can't predict it at all. So any given goaltender isn't that valuable, because they can't guarantee performance over the replacement guy.

 

[Aerchon]

Interesting take...But how can you possibly say that McDavid cannot win a game by himself after watching him play all these years? It seems almost impossible to me to see a ranking of most important players with Skinner ahead of McDavid.

In reality no player actually wins a game all by themselves. Even a goalie since they rarely score with the other goalie in the net and you don't win many games scoring 0 goals.

The difference between league average goaltending vs poor goaltending and near league best is significant. But probably only 10 points or less in the standings in either direction. It would be pretty easy to make a case that losing McDavid for the whole season would cost this team more.

1. Ten points in the standings is typically a playoff berth.

2. Not only can a goalie win a game practically by themselves but we have all seen goalies elevate in the playoffs to nigh unbeatable levels. Rolison, Osgood, Murray, Quick, Bingington... to name a few. Heck an aging Price dragged a carcass of a team to the finals not long ago.

3. We all are exaggerating McDrai impact. The aforementioned Canadians of two years ago being an easy example. If we lose McDavid and/or Draisaitl their cap space "could" be used in a multitude of ways to have as an effective team as we have right now. The New York Islanders lost Tavares and went on a playoff winning streak far far better than the Oilers have had even with McDrai.

4. Needs to just be cap space by itself. Because it can't be stressed enough how hard it is in the nhl current environment to build a winning team around superstars making such a big part of the salary cap.

We have all "felt" McDavid will a win and just do amazing things but the team is built that way so McDavid HAS to do those things for us to have success. As scarey as it is for us to win a cup McDavid has to be even better than he has been. It literally what he is expected to do with his cap hit.

If McDavid does not win a cup in Edmonton or otherwise the first person to blame is McDavid himself. He is the leader, the superstar, the guy paid the most to win... Kinda sucks to be in that high pressure role but that was his choice.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Goaltenders are far more important than forwards. Even ones as amazing as McDrai. NHL forwards just dont have the impact on winning even in comparison to other sports.

McDavid can not win a game himself. A goaltender can. Extremely difficult, but they can. McDavid is only on the ice for 1/3 the game.

Its not even close. The way the cap hit of McDavid/superstars is set up in the NHL is stupid. Defensemen in most cases also typically have more impact on winning than forwards. Centers typically more important than wingers. You could almost use ice time and special teams as well to be a good indicator of importance.

Edit: Cap come into play as well.

Just for fun.

1. Campbell.
2. Skinner.

What you're saying is general, and in the case of the Oilers its a flawed analysis. Your scenario works for a normative team like Calgary where goaltending alone nabbed 12 shutouts. This is the kind of freakish goaltending Calgary gets in regular season.

Calgary Flames set new modern NHL shutout record | Offside

The Calgary Flames are the first team since the 1938-39 Boston Bruins to net six shutouts in the opening 17 games of a season.

dailyhive.com

So that Markstrom was their most important player. In many games he was just barring the goal.


But for a team with superstars like McD or Drai that can undress D and goaltending, and did for fun with Markstrom, the situation is much different. You're overthinking it if a goalie that was found expendable and is no legitimate superstar is of more value than McDrai. You've over considered the model of goaltending being really important in hockey and missapplied it to this team roster. If Cujo was in net, and we just obtained him then maybe your argument can be plausible. But we didn't acquire the best goalie in the league, we acquired Campbell.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Interesting take...But how can you possibly say that McDavid cannot win a game by himself after watching him play all these years? It seems almost impossible to me to see a ranking of most important players with Skinner ahead of McDavid.

In reality no player actually wins a game all by themselves. Even a goalie since they rarely score with the other goalie in the net and you don't win many games scoring 0 goals.

The difference between league average goaltending vs poor goaltending and near league best is significant. But probably only 10 points or less in the standings in either direction. It would be pretty easy to make a case that losing McDavid for the whole season would cost this team more.

Your post contains a seeming contradiction.

Your second paragraph contradicts your first statement. Unless I'm missing something.

I agree with the gist of what you are saying and seeing Connor McDavid score 4 goals in a game, or seeing Cujo steal playoff games almost all by himself is as close as it gets to one player taking hold of a game.

That said on this team McDrai are the difference makers. On most nights its them shaping likelihood of outcomes. Its very unlikely that a Campbell is going to be more important than those two, even in the sport of hockey where goalies can be dominant. All we need Campbell to do is be competent in net. For the team to achieve its goals we need McDrai being superstars. The latter are.

 

[Fourier]

1. Ten points in the standings is typically a playoff berth.

2. Not only can a goalie win a game practically by themselves but we have all seen goalies elevate in the playoffs to nigh unbeatable levels. Rolison, Osgood, Murray, Quick, Bingington... to name a few. Heck an aging Price dragged a carcass of a team to the finals not long ago.

3. We all are exaggerating McDrai impact. The aforementioned Canadians of two years ago being an easy example. If we lose McDavid and/or Draisaitl their cap space "could" be used in a multitude of ways to have as an effective team as we have right now. The New York Islanders lost Tavares and went on a playoff winning streak far far better than the Oilers have had even with McDrai.

4. Needs to just be cap space by itself. Because it can't be stressed enough how hard it is in the nhl current environment to build a winning team around superstars making such a big part of the salary cap.

We have all "felt" McDavid will a win and just do amazing things but the team is built that way so McDavid HAS to do those things for us to have success. As scarey as it is for us to win a cup McDavid has to be even better than he has been. It literally what he is expected to do with his cap hit.

If McDavid does not win a cup in Edmonton or otherwise the first person to blame is McDavid himself. He is the leader, the superstar, the guy paid the most to win... Kinda sucks to be in that high pressure role but that was his choice.

To be honest I was being very generous on the 10 points. Let's look a little more closely at this from a purely numbers perspective.

Over the last three years Smith had a sv% of .913 and Campbell also had a sv% of 9.13. both around the league average. Lets assume you could bump that up to the .922 that Markstrom had last year. Assume also that Campbell plays 60 games. The extra saves would save your team 16 goals over the course of the season. Over the last three years only two goalies have had a higher sv% on average than .922. So we are talking about very near league leading goaltending. Historically, it takes a change of roughly 3 goals to create a difference of one point in the standings. Similarly, if Campell got hurt and you ende up replacing him with a guy who put up a .904 sv% you only give up about 16 more goals.

Suppose now that the Oilers lost McDavid. That impact is felt all up and down the lineup because it impacts every one of your lines. Given that McDavid has been in on 47% of the goals the team has scored over the last 3 years how likely do you think it is that the team would score 16 fewer goals if he was removed from the team?

Of course, this is not an exact science. But when you are talking about the most important player to me that means the guy who would have the greatest impact if replaced with a reasonably available alternative. For this team McDavid and Draisaitl are the two guys I think would impact the team the most if they were lost for the whole season.

The performance the team got from McDavid in the playoffs last year rivals anything I have seen from any Oiler not named Gretzky. If he plays at that level that is as much as you can reasonably ask of any player. Small individual increments from a bunch of other players can make a huge difference.

Your post contains a seeming contradiction.

Your second paragraph contradicts your first statement. Unless I'm missing something.

I agree with the gist of what you are saying and seeing Connor McDavid score 4 goals in a game, or seeing Cujo steal playoff games almost all by himself is as close as it gets to one player taking hold of a game.

That said on this team McDrai are the difference makers. On most nights its them shaping likelihood of outcomes. Its very unlikely that a Campbell is going to be more important than those two, even in the sport of hockey where goalies can be dominant. All we need Campbell to do is be competent in net. For the team to achieve its goals we need McDrai being superstars. The latter are.

Yes, you are correct...There is indeed a contradiction and I was fully aware of this when I wrote the post. The first paragraph was intended to refer to the colloquial meaning of the term as it is usually applied. The second was a more literal interpretation of the phrase which fails to apply to hockey perhaps more than any other sport.

I also agree with your premise that players like McDavid and Draisaitl transcend the usual axiom that the goaltender is the most important player on a team.

 

[ujju2]

McDavid
Draisaitl
Nurse
Campbell
Kane
RNH
Hyman
Ceci
Bouchard
Kulak
Yamamoto
McLeod
Broberg
Holloway
Puljujarvi
Foegele
Barrie
Skinner
Ryan
Janmark

 

[Rengorlex]

2. Not only can a goalie win a game practically by themselves but we have all seen goalies elevate in the playoffs to nigh unbeatable levels. Rolison, Osgood, Murray, Quick, Bingington... to name a few. Heck an aging Price dragged a carcass of a team to the finals not long ago.

Goaltending is just a high variance position. Go ahead and trade McDavid for Binnington and wonder why the team can't even make the playoffs. A hot goaltender is effectively a lucky goaltender.

 

[Oilers]

Anyone who doesn't have McDavid #1 is just overthinking this.

 

[OilerSuperstar17]

Just thought of making this thread as I drink my morning tea.
I was listening to The Oil Stream podcast last night and they were doing segments of the top 20 Oilers of importance, 5 at a time until they get to #1 so I figured this could generate some discussion while we wait for preseason to start.
Here's mine... 20-1 to make it more dramatic

20) Murray
19) Holloway (Wild Card #1 but keeping him lower for now because there's a good chance he doesn't start with the Oilers)
18) Janmark
17) Foegele
16) Ryan
15) Broberg (Wild Card #2. Lower for now but the growth potential could lead to a top 4 role before seasons' end, which would be a good thing of course)
14) Barrie
13) Puljujarvi
12) Yamamoto
11) McLeod (placed higher importance on him due to #3C being more pivotal than 3rd cog middle 6 wing)
10) Kulak
9) Kane (I have him lower than RNH and Hyman because he doesn't touch as many areas of the game as they do even though he brings that different dimension)
8) Bouchard
7) RNH
6) Hyman
5) Ceci (I have Ceci this high because I feel he's the only shutdown guy on the roster, I'm not sure that Bouchard is ready for a tough minutes role if Ceci goes down for an extended period. Maybe Barrie fills that role? I don't know, I just feel that Ceci is their 2nd most important Dman as of today.
4) Campbell
3) Draisaitl
2) Nurse (controversial one but if Nurse goes down, Kulak is your top pairing LD whereas Drai goes down and they have plenty of quality forward depth to compensate including the best player in the world)
1) McDavid

That was harder than I thought. What say you guys.

Even before Holloway's incredible training camp so far, he was going to be on the opening night roster because of his bonuses being counted towards his $925k cap hit. It'd be close to $1.5m if he isn't.

 

[VainGretzky]

Nuge as a 3rd liner is not top 5 as importance piece.

Campbell
Skinner
McDavid
Draisaitl
Nurse
Ceci
Hyman
Kane
Bouchard
Nuge
Kulak
MacLeod
Barrie
Puljujärvi (bigger talent)
Yamamoto
Broberg
Fogele
Järnmark
Holloway
Ryan
Murray
Samurukov
Shore
(Demers)
Malone
(Virtanen)
Niemilainen
Benson

Nuge is a special team beast and number 1 importance when it comes to the pk, remember how dreadful the PK was when he was injured last season and how it climbed back up in percentage when he returned

 

[Oilers]

I'll take a stab at a top 20
1 - McDavid
2 - Draisaitl
3 - Nurse
4 - Bouchard - Should take another step forward this year. I expect him to be the main defenseman on the PP for a good chunk of the year.
5 - Hyman
6 - Campbell - Important in that we need him to play well, but he imo wasn't overly impressive in Toronto. He's an upgrade from last years 'playoff' Mike Smith but Oil still give up plenty of chances and shots. I'm not expecting some 'Vezina' performance out of him, but hoping for steady.
7 - Nuge - Some say he's a third liner, but we juggle lines enough where he gets good minutes in the top 6 and special teams.
8 - Kane
9 - Ceci
10 - Skinner - I wouldn't be surprised if we see 30 games out of Stu this year. Campbell's only been a real starting goalie for one year. Not sure I see 50+ games out of him.
11 - Kulak
12 - Yamomoto
13 - McLeod
14 - Holloway
15 - Barrie
16 - Puljujarvi
17 - Broberg
18 - Ryan
19 - Janmark
20 - Foegele

 

[Whyme]

I think Niemelainen should be in the list, but his role as a physical defensive defender makes it slower for many to realize this. I wouldn't be surprised if he's in the top 15 by the end of the season.

 

[harpoon]

Apologies to fans who think shot suppression or expected GA/60 are the big ticket, putting the puck in the net is still the most important aspect of the game. Kane, the guy who scored the most goals in the NHL playoffs last season, should be a lot higher than the 8,9 rankings he’s getting in this thread.

 

[MessierII]

Apologies to fans who think shot suppression or expected GA/60 are the big ticket, putting the puck in the net is still the most important aspect of the game. Kane, the guy who scored the most goals in the NHL playoffs last season, should be a lot higher than the 8,9 rankings he’s getting in this thread.

After Mcdavid and Leon he’s our next best forward IMO. Albeit I could see an argument for Nuge and Hyman because they both are huge on the PK and top PP unit.

 

[Stoneman89]

Easy one for me. We've had McDavid and Drai have incredible seasons and still miss the playoffs. And those were the years the goaltending shit the bed, so it has to be goaltending number 1. You can have some big nights, but you simply cannot outscore bad goaltending or bad defence in this league on a consistent basis.

 

[DingDongCharlie]

Just thought of making this thread as I drink my morning tea.
I was listening to The Oil Stream podcast last night and they were doing segments of the top 20 Oilers of importance, 5 at a time until they get to #1 so I figured this could generate some discussion while we wait for preseason to start.
Here's mine... 20-1 to make it more dramatic

20) Murray
19) Holloway (Wild Card #1 but keeping him lower for now because there's a good chance he doesn't start with the Oilers)
18) Janmark
17) Foegele
16) Ryan
15) Broberg (Wild Card #2. Lower for now but the growth potential could lead to a top 4 role before seasons' end, which would be a good thing of course)
14) Barrie
13) Puljujarvi
12) Yamamoto
11) McLeod (placed higher importance on him due to #3C being more pivotal than 3rd cog middle 6 wing)
10) Kulak
9) Kane (I have him lower than RNH and Hyman because he doesn't touch as many areas of the game as they do even though he brings that different dimension)
8) Bouchard
7) RNH
6) Hyman
5) Ceci (I have Ceci this high because I feel he's the only shutdown guy on the roster, I'm not sure that Bouchard is ready for a tough minutes role if Ceci goes down for an extended period. Maybe Barrie fills that role? I don't know, I just feel that Ceci is their 2nd most important Dman as of today.
4) Campbell
3) Draisaitl
2) Nurse (controversial one but if Nurse goes down, Kulak is your top pairing LD whereas Drai goes down and they have plenty of quality forward depth to compensate including the best player in the world)
1) McDavid

That was harder than I thought. What say you guys.

Skinner needs to be here. The backup will see 30 games. That in it's own right will be more important than the contributions of a Ryan/Foegele/Janmark. Ryan averaged 10 mins a game and is 35yr, at some point this season he's likely getting pushed out. We brought back Kane, Puljujarvi, Yamamoto. Holloway is making the jump and Bourgault isn't far behind. Younger, cheaper depth guys like Shore, Malone and Benson (not saying any of these guys are better but it's a 400-500,000 cap savings) probably see time. I think Ryan's position in the top 12 is in jeopardy.