Tomas Hertl vs Mika Zibanejad

[Blue Blooded]

A lot of people will cite his minutes spent with Couture and Meier and the fact that those guys are better players than Kreider/Zibanejad but that Couture-Hertl-Meier line wasn’t very beneficial to Hertl at all. Hertl was heavily out of place as the playmaker on a line that got heavy defensive deployment in front of a struggling Vlasic-Braun pairing. Hertl has been significantly better with Kane and Donskoi, even though they are worse players. Hertl would also probably do much better between Kreider and Zuccarello than he did with Couture/Meier.

That guy mistakenly thinks that Couture/Meier are Hertl’s “real linemates” because he has played more minutes with them than he has with Kane/Donskoi. That’s understandable but currently and going forward, his linemates are Kane/Donskoi. And I think Kane and Donskoi are pretty much dead even with Kreider and Zuccarello as a pair of wingers.

Right, but Kreider-Zibanejad-Zuccarello has been a lot better than Kane-Hertl-Donskoi.

They've spent virtually identical time together (192.8 vs 193.6 minutes).

Their raw possession metrics have been roughly the same (+11.51 CD/60, 55.36 CF% vs +13.64 CD/60, 55.91 CF%).

The Ranger line has scored more goals and conceded less (+3.74 GD/60, 71.43 GF% vs +2.48 GD/60, 64.29 GF%).

The Ranger line has generated the same amount of scoring chances while conceding significantly less (+12.76 SCD/60, 62.58 SCF% vs +5.88 SCD/60, 55.08 SCF%).

The Ranger line has generated more high-danger scoring chances while conceding less (+6.85 HDCD/60, 64.47 HDCF% vs +4.34 HDCD/60, 59.21 HDCF%).

Now those are just the raw metrics, in relative terms it's not even close. And then we add the fact that the Sharks have one of the very best defensive corps in the league while the Rangers have one of the worst. I like DeAngelo and Shattenkirk a lot, but they aren't touching Karlsson/Burns as a duo.

Zibanejad's 5v5 scoring numbers are hurt a lot by having spent 195 minutes with Vlad Namestnikov in extreme shutdown deployment (35% zone start ratio). Hertl's time with Couture and Meier, while longer (366 with Couture, 261 with Meier) was not nearly as defensively geared (45% ZSR) and his linemates had vastly more offensive talent than Zibanejad's in those situations.

Sources on how they've performed as lines:
Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick
Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Right, but Kreider-Zibanejad-Zuccarello has been a lot better than Kane-Hertl-Donskoi.

They've spent virtually identical time together (192.8 vs 193.6 minutes).

Their raw possession metrics have been roughly the same (+11.51 CD/60, 55.36 CF% vs +13.64 CD/60, 55.91 CF%).

The Ranger line has scored more goals and conceded less (+3.74 GD/60, 71.43 GF% vs +2.48 GD/60, 64.29 GF%).

The Ranger line has generated the same amount of scoring chances while conceding significantly less (+12.76 SCD/60, 62.58 SCF% vs +5.88 SCD/60, 55.08 SCF%).

The Ranger line has generated more high-danger scoring chances while conceding less (+6.85 HDCD/60, 64.47 HDCF% vs +4.34 HDCD/60, 59.21 HDCF%).

Now those are just the raw metrics, in relative terms it's not even close. And then we add the fact that the Sharks have one of the very best defensive corps in the league while the Rangers have one of the worst. I like DeAngelo and Shattenkirk a lot, but they aren't touching Karlsson/Burns as a duo.

Zibanejad's 5v5 scoring numbers are hurt a lot by having spent 195 minutes with Vlad Namestnikov in extreme shutdown deployment (35% zone start ratio). Hertl's time with Couture and Meier, while longer (366 with Couture, 261 with Meier) was not nearly as defensively geared (45% ZSR) and his linemates had vastly more offensive talent than Zibanejad's in those situations.

Sources on how they've performed as lines:
Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick
Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick

Thats a really small sample size for Kreider-Zibanejad-Zuccarello. (192 minutes) I mean, goodness, you don’t actually expect them to sustain a 18.69% oiSH, do you? Or a 1.095 PDO?

Kreider-Zibanejad, without Zuccarello, have 50.87% CF and 40% GF as a duo in a slightly larger sample size. (223 minutes) Zibanejad-Zuccarello, without Kreider have 42.96% CF and 18.18% GF in a slightly smaller sample size. (153 minutes)

If Kreider-Zibanejad-Zuccarello stick together as a trio and maintain the numbers that they have in that sample size, then yeah, I would say that’s the best line in the NHL and I would give this poll to Zibanejad over Hertl. But that probably won’t be the case. The CF% and other stuff will probably come down a bit while the PDO will come crashing down hard.

I agree that Hertl has the far better support from his defensemen. The one thing that I must say is that for roughly half of the life-span of the Kane-Hertl-Donskoi line, Erik Karlsson has been injured. And due to that defensive deployment early in the season, Hertl has almost as much time with Vlasic and Braun than he has with Burns, and he’s spent more time with them than he has with Karlsson.

Vlasic/Braun were the worst defensive pairing in the NHL for a sizeable portion of the season, and they’ve tanked the numbers of everybody that has played without them. In 367 minutes without either of those guys on the ice, Hertl has a 57.78% CF and 67.35% GF. Luckily for Hertl’s sake, Vlasic appears to be back to his normal self, and Karlsson will be returning shortly.

Seems like these guys both might actually be superstar #1Cs ready to break through to the next level if they get used with the right teammates, like they have been recently. It’ll be fun to watch how they both end the season.

 

[Machinehead]

I don't think it's Zuccarello because the Kreider-Zibanejad duo was just as good with Buchnevich back when that was a thing, and just as good with Fast last year.

 

[FireGerardGallant]

I just see Hertl with an ability to take over a playoff series that Zibanejad doesn’t have.

Last time we were in the playoffs Mika was our best forward, and hes only gotten better since then

 

[ecemleafs]

Why are we discussing the most common forward linemates when playing with karlsson/burns is a far bigger impact than playing with shattenkirk/skjei?

 

[TGWL]

Zibanejad's numbers would probably be a little better if Zucc wasn't hurt and depressed for half the games he's played, or missed. With that said, he's got 22 points in his last 15 games, but he also has had 22 games without registering a 1 point. (played 4 more games) Hertl has had 19 games where he didn't register a point, scoring 20 points in his last 15 games.

It's pretty even and both have picked up their play lately. I think Zibanejad's production goes down slightly when Zucc is traded. During the recent surge, he's been more involved in Zibanejad's play than Kreider.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Why are we discussing the most common forward linemates when playing with karlsson/burns is a far bigger impact than playing with shattenkirk/skjei?

Because Hertl has spent as much time with Vlasic/Braun as he has with Burns/Karlsson, and Vlasic/Braun this season have been worse than any Rangers defenseman. Hertl’s spent 46% of his even strength ice time with one of Vlasic or Braun on the ice. He’s got a 58.09% CF and 63.93% GF at evens without them.

 

[Blue Blooded]

Because Hertl has spent as much time with Vlasic/Braun as he has with Burns/Karlsson, and Vlasic/Braun this season have been worse than any Rangers defenseman. Hertl’s spent 46% of his even strength ice time with one of Vlasic or Braun on the ice. He’s got a 58.09% CF and 63.93% GF at evens without them.

First of all Vlasic-Braun has not been worse than any Rangers pairing, at least in terms of raw numbers. Staal-Pionk has been a 42 CF% pairing (40 without Zib) and Skjei-McQuaid a 44 CF% pairing (42 without Zib) compared to Vlasic-Braun's 45 CF%.

Zibanejad has spent 66% of his 5v5 TOI with Pionk and Skjei this year. Without them he has been a 55 CF%, 59 GF%, 63 HDCF% player and as earlier mentioned, DeAngelo/Shattenkirk are hardly Karlsson/Burns.

 

[Quid Pro Clowe]

I'll take Hertl, but can't go wrong with either.

The teammates talk is dumb. No one can control that.

 

[Taluss]

Damn close, really good poll

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

First of all Vlasic-Braun has not been worse than any Rangers pairing, at least in terms of raw numbers. Staal-Pionk has been a 42 CF% pairing (40 without Zib) and Skjei-McQuaid a 44 CF% pairing (42 without Zib) compared to Vlasic-Braun's 45 CF%.

Zibanejad has spent 66% of his 5v5 TOI with Pionk and Skjei this year. Without them he has been a 55 CF%, 59 GF%, 63 HDCF% player and as earlier mentioned, DeAngelo/Shattenkirk are hardly Karlsson/Burns.

How about relative numbers? Vlasic-Braun have completely tanked an otherwise elite team all season. They might be be 35% CF 25% GF on the Rangers.

 

[bobbyking]

Both are overrated because of league scoring

 

[CherryToke]

Both are overrated because of league scoring

You've probably been watching hockey for 2 years max.

 

[Hellraising Senator]

Zib is awesome but he's had amazing puck luck. Idk how telling his point totals really are.

Zibanejad has a 98 PDO that's not having puck luck. It's actually the opposite of that.

 

[Regal]

Zibanejad has a 98 PDO that's not having puck luck. It's actually the opposite of that.

PDO doesn't really matter. A poor on-ice save percentage doesn't affect production. His 9.78 on-ice shooting percentage at 5v5 isn't unlucky, but it's not particularly inflated with the rise in league scoring though. It's also lower than Hertl's 10.78, and Hertl's shooting 21.5% individually, so if either are benefitting from inflated rates it's him.

 

[bert]

Zibanejad	TOI With	Hertl	TOI With
Kreider	416:13	Couture	366:09
Zuccarello	346:34	Meier	261:16
Fast	254:46	Kane	257:13
Namestinkov	195:39	Donskoi	219:10
Chytil	115:33	Leblanc	108:13
Buchnevich	105:43	Pavelski	82:51

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

*5v5

Looks pretty even to me. Obviously Hertl has elite defensive support.

How is it possibly even if karlsson and burns are passing to one player not the other.