Player Discussion Tom Wilson, NHL All-Star (Part 3)

[kicksavedave]

Agreed !
and... am I a bad guy for smiling when I think about Wilson being on the all-star team, and Panarin, apparently, is not ?

(its a small smile, but still satisfying)

I just hope he doesn't commit any more horrific acts of violence in Las Vegas!

 

[Capsman]

you wrote 4 paragraphs on why he’s not worthy of being an all star…..kinda feels like you are.

So you prefer opinions without explanations? OK.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

So you prefer opinions without explanations? OK.

just sayin….you put a lot of effort to tear down the guy….it’s fine, you don’t think he’s worthy, I think he’s lucky to get in due to injury and circumstance….AND good play.

IMO, and I’ve watched a lot of ASG’s…..I would not have Tom Wilson on the short list of all time least worthy selections.

 

[Capsman]

I am curious. What is your definition of "good player". Do you have a player on another team that is the same level of good player?

OK, I'll give you an example of a good player and one I would argue has always been more skilled than Tom, had similar to better production on lower lines, but did not make an all-start team ...until this year when his stats became out of this world. Nazim Kadri. His stats were pretty remarkable even before this season for a guy not playing with superstars on his line. 2-way player, like Tom. Sure, different positions but I still think we can compare the two.

 

[Capsman]

just sayin….you put a lot of effort to tear down the guy….it’s fine, you don’t think he’s worthy, I think he’s lucky to get in due to injury and circumstance….AND good play.

IMO, and I’ve watched a lot of ASG’s…..I would not have Tom Wilson on the short list of all time least worthy selections.

I promise you, it didn't take a lot of effort to give an honest analysis. I'm not blaming him for the PP for PK units' difficulties, what I'm saying is that all star level guys elevate guys around them. Tom does his job and does it well.

 

[txpd]

I promise you, it didn't take a lot of effort to give an honest analysis. I'm not blaming him for the PP for PK units' difficulties, what I'm saying is that all star level guys elevate guys around them. Tom does his job and does it well.

You must have a specific idea of what you mean by "elevate guys around them." For me its pretty obvious much of Wilson's game is about those around him. Just his presence on the ice elevates those around him.

 

[Baszie]

You must have a specific idea of what you mean by "elevate guys around them." For me its pretty obvious much of Wilson's game is about those around him. Just his presence on the ice elevates those around him.

His on-of ice stats over this and last season say otherwise. His CF% and xGF% are at the bottom of all cap players.

 

[txpd]

His on-of ice stats over this and last season say otherwise. His CF% and xGF% are at the bottom of all cap players.

Some of us believe all the answers are in the analytics. Some not so much.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

His on-of ice stats over this and last season say otherwise. His CF% and xGF% are at the bottom of all cap players.

tough to understand the game staring at a spreadsheet.

 

[g00n]

His on-of ice stats over this and last season say otherwise. His CF% and xGF% are at the bottom of all cap players.

NHL Player Statistics -Advanced Stats

 

[twabby]

NHL Player Statistics -Advanced Stats

View attachment 504876View attachment 504877

The expected goals cited above are all-situations, which includes significant PP time. At 5v5 and adjusting for score and flurries, Wilson has only been better than Eller and Hagelin in terms of xGF%.

Evolving Hockey paints a similar story, though Wilson also performs better than Dowd under EH's model.

Connor McMichael, of course, is at the top according to EH and second according to Moneypuck. Give him minutes!

 

[txpd]

Connor McMichael, of course, is at the top according to EH and second according to Moneypuck. Give him minutes!

We all have known that McMichael is the Capitals' best forward.

 

[g00n]

The expected goals cited above are all-situations, which includes significant PP time. At 5v5 and adjusting for score and flurries, Wilson has only been better than Eller and Hagelin in terms of xGF%.

Evolving Hockey paints a similar story, though Wilson also performs better than Dowd under EH's model.

Connor McMichael, of course, is at the top according to EH and second according to Moneypuck. Give him minutes!

5v5 only, score adjusted, no "flurries", and other than a couple of other players...

OK sure. How about during the McNugget minute? If he's not leading the league in expected nuggets then he sucks, right?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

We all have known that McMichael is the Capitals' best forward.

Probably the second coming of McJesus, just held back by one man….lol….

 

[Baszie]

Over this and last season he is 27e in xGF% and 26e in CF% of the 28 players who played a minimum of 120 minutes.

He offense has been very lackluster since last season.

 

[g00n]

Over this and last season he is 27e in xGF% and 26e in CF% of the 28 players who played a minimum of 120 minutes.

He offense has been very lackluster since last season.

What the f*** are you guys talking about?

When did expected percentage of imaginary goals scored when the full moon is passing through Orion's belt become the measure of "offense"?

Wilson is 4th on the team in points and has 13 goals, which is 3rd behind Kuzy's 14 and Ovie's 29.

Last year Wilson was 5th on the team in goals and points.

But sure, he's the worst player on the team.

JFC

 

[Capsman]

How has this evolved from he’s a good player but not all star caliber to “but sure, he’s the worst player on the team”?

In my view, it’s Ovi, Kuzy, Orlov, Backstrom (in yesteryear would be #2), Carlson, Wilson in that order. No shame in that whatsoever.

 

[twabby]

5v5 only, score adjusted, no "flurries", and other than a couple of other players...

OK sure. How about during the McNugget minute? If he's not leading the league in expected nuggets then he sucks, right?

Yes, you need to consider the game state, otherwise players who play on the power play would look better under this metric than those who don’t for instance.

Just for the record I think Tom Wilson is a good player and I’m glad he’s going to the all star game. But you did post a misleading stat, and if there’s one thing that boils my blood it’s stat abuse!

 

[g00n]

Yes, you need to consider the game state, otherwise players who play on the power play would look better under this metric than those who don’t for instance.

Just for the record I think Tom Wilson is a good player and I’m glad he’s going to the all star game. But you did post a misleading stat, and if there’s one thing that boils my blood it’s stat abuse!

Right. The actual goals and assist are misleading and not really "offense".

Good thinking.


Since the PP no longer counts Wilson is still 4th on the team in 5v5 goals. His G/60 drops a bit to 9th at 5v5 among players with 10 games or more, but his .78 is still close to CMM's .84 and everyone think's he's an unheralded offensive dynamo.


You guys are digging for some reason to shit on TW's achievements. It's actually amusing and a little satisfying to see TW making the ASG upset so many people.

 

[twabby]

Right. The actual goals and assist are misleading and not really "offense".

Good thinking.


Since the PP no longer counts Wilson is still 4th on the team in 5v5 goals. His G/60 drops a bit to 9th at 5v5 among players with 10 games or more, but his .78 is still close to CMM's .84 and everyone think's he's an unheralded offensive dynamo.


You guys are digging for some reason to shit on TW's achievements. It's actually amusing and a little satisfying to see TW making the ASG upset so many people.

The expected goals numbers are misleading for sure, but even the point rates are misleading because it’s not an apples to apples comparison. Those who don’t get power play time are likely going to have lower point rates because they aren’t deployed in these offensive situations where it’s easier to collect points.

I think the point you make about McMichael is a good one. Why isn’t he getting ice time if he’s producing at rates similar to Evgeny Kuznetsov and Nicklas Backstrom? Especially since unlike the latter two, McMichael should only improve. Baffling coaching decisions!

 

[txpd]

You guys are digging for some reason to shit on TW's achievements. It's actually amusing and a little satisfying to see TW making the ASG upset so many people.

What is funny is how so many are Caps fans.

 

[txpd]

The expected goals numbers are misleading for sure, but even the point rates are misleading because it’s not an apples to apples comparison. Those who don’t get power play time are likely going to have lower point rates because they aren’t deployed in these offensive situations where it’s easier to collect points.

I think the point you make about McMichael is a good one. Why isn’t he getting ice time if he’s producing at rates similar to Evgeny Kuznetsov and Nicklas Backstrom? Especially since unlike the latter two, McMichael should only improve. Baffling coaching decisions!

Umm....this gives me a headache. The players on the power play are not really the best offensive players on the team while a player getting scratched is a top player. Sounds like if we just got McMichael on the power play we could kill his analytics and.....oh, nevermind

Edit: Have we established that McMichael and Sprong are better than Ovechkin yet?

 

[twabby]

Umm....this gives me a headache. The players on the power play are not really the best offensive players on the team while a player getting scratched is a top player. Sounds like if we just got McMichael on the power play we could kill his analytics and.....oh, nevermind

Edit: Have we established that McMichael and Sprong are better than Ovechkin yet?

The point isn’t that McMichael is better than these guys, but yes McMichael could be one of the team’s better offensive threats despite getting healthy scratches. There’s a reason so many here are upset at McMichael’s lack of ice time, it’s hardly a fringe opinion.

Anyways, this is the Tom Wilson thread. He’s a good player, no one here said he’s bad. They just pointed out some of his flaws because it’s a player discussion thread. Apparently TWDS (Tom Wilson Derangement Syndrome) goes both ways. You don’t have to take offense to criticism of him!

 

[txpd]

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Fringe opinions among armchair NHL coaches…..don’t mean jack except to like-minded people.


I take this with a grain of salt….many of the same people criticizing Wilson, called him ruined, a bust, and if you watch GDTs, they criticize him anytime anything physical happens.