Tobias Enstrom and Dustin Byfuglien are Really Good

[razorsedge]

I like Enstrom because he makes the smart play with an accurate pass. Don't need stats to see it.

 

[garret9]

I like Enstrom because he makes the smart play with an accurate pass. Don't need stats to see it.

Correction, you don't.

Some even with stats can't see it...

Some of them are our own media and "hockey experts".

 

[Positive]

I traded away Lidstrom for Enstrom plus Gaborik in my fantasy pool one year. For Enstrom it was a breakout year, and Gaborik scored 5 goals the next day when I put him on my roster. That was sweet. True story. Bro.

 

[ps241]

Correction, you don't.

Some even with stats can't see it...

Some of them are our own media and "hockey experts".

I don't think there are many experts in the media yet somehow that clown show gets to vote for player awards??

locally I will listen to Beyak and Hnidy when they are interviewed because I think they have ACCESS AND KNOWLEDGE. Past that its a stretch and I can't think of anyone this morning that I go out of my way to listen to or read.

 

[Grind]

I don't think there are many experts in the media yet somehow that clown show gets to vote for player awards??

locally I will listen to Beyak and Hnidy when they are interviewed because I think they have ACCESS AND KNOWLEDGE. Past that its a stretch and I can't think of anyone this morning that I go out of my way to listen to or read.

totally agree. Especially our radio guys. Not one of our radio guys has any cred's as a hockey voice, so why do people insist on treating them as if they're some sort of authority?

They have no more access to information then the rest of us, and, for my money, apparently don't do much homework- baseless claims aplenty.

Toby is a perfect microcosm IMO of the "old vs new" in hockey and fans.

He doesn't hit or block shots or "look" the part and so he gets ragged on.

meanwhile,

you can't hit if you have the puck
you can't block shots if you have the puck
you don't get in board battles if you make good passes

high hit/block numbers should almost be a bad thing as they can only happen when you don't have puck possession.

 

[Duke749]

Enstrom can block shots, he just rarely has to and I don't think deflections off of your stick out of play always count see as how 1on1 with him is almost impossible to get a clean shot off.

 

[VictoriaJetsFan]

Garret9's numbers are always beyond reproach. His research is always really interesting and I enjoy reading his stuff here and on AIH. If anyone wants to know anything about advanced stats he is the guy to go to.

That said, I have issues with the Buff/Toby pairing and whatever it is, no matter how solid they play, I can't shake the feeling. I could be on to something, or I honestly have not realized yet I am too stupid to do math.

I think others have this feeling too, so there must be something there.

For starters, Enstrom and Buff have been largely minus players since they got here. For a supposed top pair, thy are not good when lined up against top players. I remember some of the early Jets games against Pittsburgh when the Jets got scored on 8 times, the Buff/Enstrom pair was like minus 5.

It is not unreasonable, or too old-school to expect your top defenceman to take care of their own zone first. In regards to their offense, I also feel they get most of their points on the powerplay. That's great, but it does undermine somewhat their offensive contribution if its not so much 5 on 5.

I also think the physicality of the pairing is maddeningly frustrating for the fan base. Enstrom because he has no physical game at all, Byfuglien because he doesn't use his size and strength as much as we would like. Sometimes when you watch a player the things they don't do leave you frustrated and overshadow the things they do do. Buff is certainly one of those.

the other factor is coaching related. It looked ike at the begining of the year Bogo was going to play with Enstrom and I was excited about that. I though Bogo could be a steady stay at home guy and Enstrom could grow his point totals not having to worry about Buff. This does not appear to be the case anymore.

Also, the Jets, a few days ago I heard this, were second in the league in turnovers with 40, how many of those are Enstrom/Buff related? It would be interesting to know.

Overall I think the pair leaves you wanting something. maybe its fair, maybe it isn't. I think the perception has validity.

 

[Flair Hay]

Garret9's numbers are always beyond reproach. His research is always really interesting and I enjoy reading his stuff here and on AIH. If anyone wants to know anything about advanced stats he is the guy to go to.

That said, I have issues with the Buff/Toby pairing and whatever it is, no matter how solid they play, I can't shake the feeling. I could be on to something, or I honestly have not realized yet I am too stupid to do math.

I think others have this feeling too, so there must be something there.

For starters, Enstrom and Buff have been largely minus players since they got here. For a supposed top pair, thy are not good when lined up against top players. I remember some of the early Jets games against Pittsburgh when the Jets got scored on 8 times, the Buff/Enstrom pair was like minus 5.

It is not unreasonable, or too old-school to expect your top defenceman to take care of their own zone first. In regards to their offense, I also feel they get most of their points on the powerplay. That's great, but it does undermine somewhat their offensive contribution if its not so much 5 on 5.

I also think the physicality of the pairing is maddeningly frustrating for the fan base. Enstrom because he has no physical game at all, Byfuglien because he doesn't use his size and strength as much as we would like. Sometimes when you watch a player the things they don't do leave you frustrated and overshadow the things they do do. Buff is certainly one of those.

the other factor is coaching related. It looked ike at the begining of the year Bogo was going to play with Enstrom and I was excited about that. I though Bogo could be a steady stay at home guy and Enstrom could grow his point totals not having to worry about Buff. This does not appear to be the case anymore.

Also, the Jets, a few days ago I heard this, were second in the league in turnovers with 40, how many of those are Enstrom/Buff related? It would be interesting to know.

Overall I think the pair leaves you wanting something. maybe its fair, maybe it isn't. I think the perception has validity.

This is about where I'm at. (Most) People don't rag on them because they are awful, but a lot have troubles with our team's top pairing not being all that great in our own end when we are there.

What I'm assuming from reading Garret's previous stuff is that Trouba is likely to be losing out in SA/GA this year? I remember the article about recent young defenseman said pretty much every guy was getting beat vs top minutes at 19 and the good ones became "plus" players around 20-21 regardless of how long they took getting to the NHL.

I think people are so impressed with how good Trouba looks at times they are forgetting that him and Bogo are statistically the ones dragging us down so far and not Toby/Buff. That might change as Trouba/Bogo get better throughout the season but we probably shouldn't expect it to either based on recent comparable players' performances.

 

[VictoriaJetsFan]

This is about where I'm at. (Most) People don't rag on them because they are awful, but a lot have troubles with our team's top pairing not being all that great in our own end when we are there.

What I'm assuming from reading Garret's previous stuff is that Trouba is likely to be losing out in SA/GA this year? I remember the article about recent young defenseman said pretty much every guy was getting beat vs top minutes at 19 and the good ones became "plus" players around 20-21 regardless of how long they took getting to the NHL.

I think people are so impressed with how good Trouba looks at times they are forgetting that him and Bogo are statistically the ones dragging us down so far and not Toby/Buff. That might change as Trouba/Bogo get better throughout the season but we probably shouldn't expect it to either based on recent comparable players' performances.

I think that is spot on. I worry about the Trouba/Bogo pairing for the reasons you mentioned. A 19 year old playing so many minutes is going to be difficult to maintain without issues. I really wish Bogo would play on his natural side with a really good partner. Trouba should be third pair. This is really on management and the coaches more than anything.

 

[Flair Hay]

I think that is spot on. I worry about the Trouba/Bogo pairing for the reasons you mentioned. A 19 year old playing so many minutes is going to be difficult to maintain without issues. I really wish Bogo would play on his natural side with a really good partner. Trouba should be third pair. This is really on management and the coaches more than anything.

I don't even think its a bad thing Trouba and Bogo are playing together. Just the reality of developing a young team. Despite how valuable the (necessary) experience is for Trouba, it's going to take a bit of time for him to surpass even the pre-scoring streak Ron Hainsey.

At the beginning of last season after his awful stint in Russia, Kane was in a similar position. Flashes greatness but didn't have much of a well rounded game. He comes back naturally bigger at 21 vs 20 and all of a sudden his body can do many of the things his mind wanted to but body wouldn't allow at 20. I'd expect something similar in Trouba. Until then he's similar to Frolik who plays big but can't actually outmuscle his peers. Like for example, Prust out-muscling him in front of the net for that ricochet at the end of a long shift vs Montreal.

Once he can overpower players and outsmart them (which he has at times every game already) then the results will follow.

 

[Grind]

Garret9's numbers are always beyond reproach. His research is always really interesting and I enjoy reading his stuff here and on AIH. If anyone wants to know anything about advanced stats he is the guy to go to.

That said, I have issues with the Buff/Toby pairing and whatever it is, no matter how solid they play, I can't shake the feeling. I could be on to something, or I honestly have not realized yet I am too stupid to do math.

I think others have this feeling too, so there must be something there.

For starters, Enstrom and Buff have been largely minus players since they got here. For a supposed top pair, thy are not good when lined up against top players. I remember some of the early Jets games against Pittsburgh when the Jets got scored on 8 times, the Buff/Enstrom pair was like minus 5.

It is not unreasonable, or too old-school to expect your top defenceman to take care of their own zone first. In regards to their offense, I also feel they get most of their points on the powerplay. That's great, but it does undermine somewhat their offensive contribution if its not so much 5 on 5.

I also think the physicality of the pairing is maddeningly frustrating for the fan base. Enstrom because he has no physical game at all, Byfuglien because he doesn't use his size and strength as much as we would like. Sometimes when you watch a player the things they don't do leave you frustrated and overshadow the things they do do. Buff is certainly one of those.

the other factor is coaching related. It looked ike at the begining of the year Bogo was going to play with Enstrom and I was excited about that. I though Bogo could be a steady stay at home guy and Enstrom could grow his point totals not having to worry about Buff. This does not appear to be the case anymore.

Also, the Jets, a few days ago I heard this, were second in the league in turnovers with 40, how many of those are Enstrom/Buff related? It would be interesting to know.

Overall I think the pair leaves you wanting something. maybe its fair, maybe it isn't. I think the perception has validity.

I feel like those still critiquing this maybe aren't really understanding the numbers.

Even if they are responsible for the turnovers, what they've been shown to be good at (in the numbers above) better correlates to success/goals/etc then +/-, turnovers, blocked shots, hits.

So it comes down to, quite literally, do you want results or aesthetics?

Buff and Toby are top 5 in the results which are most indicative of skill. They are not so good in aesthetics that actually have a fairly poor correlation to success/winning games.

A lot of people seem to prefer aesthetics, which is what i mean when i say old verse new. Buff and toby are not top 5 leagwide in aesthetics. You want aesthetics, I want a winning team. To me its pretty cut and dry.



you want a pairing tahts top 5 n both? Well... i want a unicorn. We have a very good thing here, i hate seeing people complaining because they want something that is (results wise) inferior, or simply unrealistic.

 

[Flair Hay]

I feel like those still critiquing this maybe aren't really understanding the numbers.

Even if they are responsible for the turnovers, what they've been shown to be good at (in the numbers above) better correlates to success/goals/etc then +/-, turnovers, blocked shots, hits.

So it comes down to, quite literally, do you want results or aesthetics?

Buff and Toby are top 5 in the results which are most indicative of skill. They are not so good in aesthetics that actually have a fairly poor correlation to success/winning games.

A lot of people seem to prefer aesthetics, which is what i mean when i say old verse new. Buff and toby are not top 5 leagwide in aesthetics. You want aesthetics, I want a winning team. To me its pretty cut and dry.



you want a pairing tahts top 5 n both? Well... i want a unicorn. We have a very good thing here, i hate seeing people complaining because they want something that is (results wise) inferior, or simply unrealistic.

Inconsistency in hockey can be a very infectious trait. It can be difficult to get everyone to raise their level of play and compete when there is teammates capable of more that aren't providing it. I don't think many have issues with Buff's overall results, it's more that its difficult to play a complete, 60 minute team game when your teams best player isn't always dialed in. That is something that I feel is real, and affects the outcome of periods, games and seasons. That can't be quantified, or at least hasn't.

It's hard to deny the impact a pack mentality, us against the world, or, Claude's favourite "everyone buying into the system" can have. There's no way of proving it but I think some feel there will never be any significant change with a guy like Buff around, regardless of how much he helps at times. I haven't figured out which side is right yet.

Just because people can't express something in proper logical reasoning (re: highly educated) terms doesn't make them wrong or their views invalid.

 

[garret9]

Garret9's numbers are always beyond reproach. His research is always really interesting and I enjoy reading his stuff here and on AIH. If anyone wants to know anything about advanced stats he is the guy to go to.

That said, I have issues with the Buff/Toby pairing and whatever it is, no matter how solid they play, I can't shake the feeling. I could be on to something, or I honestly have not realized yet I am too stupid to do math.

I think others have this feeling too, so there must be something there.

For starters, Enstrom and Buff have been largely minus players since they got here. For a supposed top pair, thy are not good when lined up against top players. I remember some of the early Jets games against Pittsburgh when the Jets got scored on 8 times, the Buff/Enstrom pair was like minus 5.

It is not unreasonable, or too old-school to expect your top defenceman to take care of their own zone first. In regards to their offense, I also feel they get most of their points on the powerplay. That's great, but it does undermine somewhat their offensive contribution if its not so much 5 on 5.

I also think the physicality of the pairing is maddeningly frustrating for the fan base. Enstrom because he has no physical game at all, Byfuglien because he doesn't use his size and strength as much as we would like. Sometimes when you watch a player the things they don't do leave you frustrated and overshadow the things they do do. Buff is certainly one of those.

the other factor is coaching related. It looked ike at the begining of the year Bogo was going to play with Enstrom and I was excited about that. I though Bogo could be a steady stay at home guy and Enstrom could grow his point totals not having to worry about Buff. This does not appear to be the case anymore.

Also, the Jets, a few days ago I heard this, were second in the league in turnovers with 40, how many of those are Enstrom/Buff related? It would be interesting to know.

Overall I think the pair leaves you wanting something. maybe its fair, maybe it isn't. I think the perception has validity.

Thanks, I'll add some notes onto your comments though:

Enstrom and Byfuglien have been minus players here but almost all those have come from there minutes apart from each other. I put the numbers on here back after 2011-12 but Byfuglien that season was a + for 75% of his icetime, but was a very severe minus for his ~25% of his icetime with Stuart that overcame his other percentage. Remember that Jets own 60% of the 5v5 goals when Tobi-Buff are on the ice, so the '-' rating isn't coming when they are together.

This is one of the reasons why team win%, +/- and GAA are pretty much (well not pretty much, definitively are) the worst statistics in the world when it comes to evaluating individual player/goalie talent.

Enstrom-Byfuglien are actually one of the top 5v5 pairs in the league. I compared them to the 30 top pairs in the league and they came in 6th in possession and 2nd in 5v5 points. That is a huge ****ing accomplishment when you think most of the pairs to beat them are on top possession teams:

STL Pietro-Bouw, BOS Chara-Seid, LAK Doughty-Scud, VAN Garr-Ham...

Those teams are some of the top teams for outscoring and outshooting in the league.


To me I don't care that they don't hit or physically impose if they are outplaying their opposition.

Results > style

Sure I hope and wish certain things, but the results are good on the ice when they are together, the problem just is everywhere else.


Turnovers are also a really bad stat. Try tracking puck possession loses for one game and check out how many end up being turnovers. It's actually completely random. The stat tends to correlate with possession time as well, which is why guys like Dats tend to be in the top of the league. However, Jets haven't been doing well in possession, so that would be concerning if turnovers were decently tracked, which they are not.

I do however track unforced possession loses in the the d-zone and Enstrom and Byfuglien are 1 and 2 for the least of our defensemen per puck touch.

 

[VictoriaJetsFan]

Thanks, I'll add some notes onto your comments though:

Enstrom and Byfuglien have been minus players here but almost all those have come from there minutes apart from each other. I put the numbers on here back after 2011-12 but Byfuglien that season was a + for 75% of his icetime, but was a very severe minus for his ~25% of his icetime with Stuart that overcame his other percentage. Remember that Jets own 60% of the 5v5 goals when Tobi-Buff are on the ice, so the '-' rating isn't coming when they are together.

This is one of the reasons why team win%, +/- and GAA are pretty much (well not pretty much, definitively are) the worst statistics in the world when it comes to evaluating individual player/goalie talent.

Enstrom-Byfuglien are actually one of the top 5v5 pairs in the league. I compared them to the 30 top pairs in the league and they came in 6th in possession and 2nd in 5v5 points. That is a huge ****ing accomplishment when you think most of the pairs to beat them are on top possession teams:

STL Pietro-Bouw, BOS Chara-Seid, LAK Doughty-Scud, VAN Garr-Ham...

Those teams are some of the top teams for outscoring and outshooting in the league.


To me I don't care that they don't hit or physically impose if they are outplaying their opposition.

Results > style

Sure I hope and wish certain things, but the results are good on the ice when they are together, the problem just is everywhere else.


Turnovers are also a really bad stat. Try tracking puck possession loses for one game and check out how many end up being turnovers. It's actually completely random. The stat tends to correlate with possession time as well, which is why guys like Dats tend to be in the top of the league. However, Jets haven't been doing well in possession, so that would be concerning if turnovers were decently tracked, which they are not.

I do however track unforced possession loses in the the d-zone and Enstrom and Byfuglien are 1 and 2 for the least of our defensemen per puck touch.

Thanks for the feedback. Much appreciated.

I wonder what your thoughts are on the Clitsome/Buff success from last year and the jets won-loss record when Enstrom is not in the lineup.

 

[garret9]

Thanks for the feedback. Much appreciated.

I wonder what your thoughts are on the Clitsome/Buff success from last year and the jets won-loss record when Enstrom is not in the lineup.

No problem. Love to help. OT: Wonder if we met before. I lived in Victoria for about 12 years.

As I placed in that quote, Win/Loss records for players is more a function of circumstances than individual player value. I believe the Penguins have a greater win% without Crosby.

The fact is the statistic is very descriptive but not predictive. That's what Corsi is all about. It's not liek goals or wins, which is the goal of the game, so it's function of a descriptive statistic is pretty weak. However, it is very strong in being predictive.

A lot of Enstrom's win/loss record is due to the fact that the one month where Pavelec played consistently above average was Dec 2011, where Jets went on a huge win streak thanks to Pavelec. Enstrom was out for much of that. Now did Pavelec play better because Enstrom was not on the ice? Possible, but the evidence to me makes me think unlikely.

In the end, can you blame a guy who for more minutes than not, outshoots and outscores their opponent. The team historically is a bubble team that goes on streaks here and there, mostly sitting around 50% (both in wins and Corsi). It's not surprising that way that some will get short end of the stick with the win/loss record when they miss games.


For the Clit-Buff thingy:

Historically Byfuglien plays above 50% line with Clitsome, but it's not by much. The idea that having Buff with Clitsome or Enstrom with Bogo let's either one of them "free" to do their thing or improve them offensively seems to be a misconception, but we'll see.

Enstrom is the stronger player (well no ****, ha) but coach is desperate for the team to have a real top 4 so I understand why he could be trying this.

 

[VictoriaJetsFan]

No problem. Love to help. OT: Wonder if we met before. I lived in Victoria for about 12 years.

As I placed in that quote, Win/Loss records for players is more a function of circumstances than individual player value. I believe the Penguins have a greater win% without Crosby.

The fact is the statistic is very descriptive but not predictive. That's what Corsi is all about. It's not liek goals or wins, which is the goal of the game, so it's function of a descriptive statistic is pretty weak. However, it is very strong in being predictive.

A lot of Enstrom's win/loss record is due to the fact that the one month where Pavelec played consistently above average was Dec 2011, where Jets went on a huge win streak thanks to Pavelec. Enstrom was out for much of that. Now did Pavelec play better because Enstrom was not on the ice? Possible, but the evidence to me makes me think unlikely.

In the end, can you blame a guy who for more minutes than not, outshoots and outscores their opponent. The team historically is a bubble team that goes on streaks here and there, mostly sitting around 50% (both in wins and Corsi). It's not surprising that way that some will get short end of the stick with the win/loss record when they miss games.


For the Clit-Buff thingy:

Historically Byfuglien plays above 50% line with Clitsome, but it's not by much. The idea that having Buff with Clitsome or Enstrom with Bogo let's either one of them "free" to do their thing or improve them offensively seems to be a misconception, but we'll see.

Enstrom is the stronger player (well no ****, ha) but coach is desperate for the team to have a real top 4 so I understand why he could be trying this.

Thanks Garret9, much appreciated.

We have flipped cities. I moved here in June 2012, lived in Van for 6 years prior. Winnipeg before that. Was around for all the jets 1.0 debacle. So no, I don't think we have met. Plus, I would surely remember a jets fan such as yourself.

Not quite sure about your reference to the '50% line' in regards to Buff, please elaborate.

I will give Enstrom this in his defence, he was plus 14 in one of his Atlanta years.

In regards to defence pairs, I have a buddy who briefly played goal with the Tri-City Americans. I asked him about defence pairs vis a vis stay at home types versus puck-movers. He said, emphatically, he wanted one of each. It makes sense in regards to maintaining balance.

 

[knorthern knight]

People are attacking me on twitter over Enstrom...

Bogosian, Byfuglien, and Enstrom have positive +/-, unlike Postma (zero), and Clitsome+Stuart+Trouba who are all negative. Bet you never thought you'd get support from me on that front

 

[Flair Hay]

Bogosian, Byfuglien, and Enstrom have positive +/-, unlike Postma (zero), and Clitsome+Stuart+Trouba who are all negative. Bet you never thought you'd get support from me on that front

Haha nice

 

[Stej]

What I like most about Garret's numbers are that they almost always verify my eye test.

I will have a problem with him if his numbers ever start disagreeing with me though.

 

[Whileee]

Whether you like to look at numbers or not, Buff and Enstrom were absolutely terrific last night. The shift when Enstrom scored the tying goal was pure brilliance. Buff is becoming dominant this season - over 30 minutes last night and he looked fresh as ever in OT.