Timely Goal Scoring in Hockey History

[rhinoshawarma]

Really interesting, I always was thinking about this topic and wondered if anybody made this data for the current season. I may give it a go if nobody else is/no website is doing it

 

[TorontoMapleLindros]

Incredible job! Gives me a bit of a different perspective on Andreychuk's contributions.

 

[morehockeystats]

Clutch goals

I've done some aggregation for "clutch" goals:

http://morehockeystats.com/players/clutch/1987/2016/total

GEG - Game Ending Goal. The decisive goal scored in OT. 2.5 points
GWG - Game Winning Goal that was the last to be scored. 1.5 points
LGWG - Late GWG - GWG scored in the last 3 minutes of the game. 2 points
GTG - Game Tying Goal. The last or the penultimate goal that tied the game. 1 points
LGTG - Late GTG - GTG scored in the last 3 minutes of the game. 1.5 points

However, my definition of a clutch GWG is different - it's an NHL Game Winning Goal, after which the opponent did not score!
I only have data since 1987 - the earliest boxscores available on NHL.com

 

[Canadiens1958]

First Goal

These are the counts of goals as the goal# in the game.

I was primarily interested in the 1st goal column, as the first goal of a hockey game is particularly important in setting the direction for the rest of the game. I also included columns for the 2nd/3rd goal of the game, the 4th/5th goal, the 6th/7th goal, the 8th/9th goal, and the 10th+ goal.

Most of the variation in these numbers can be attributed to varying scoring levels over time, of course. But there are still some interesting points. For example, Wayne Gretzky and Jari Kurri rarely scored the first goal of the game.

Player | Goals | 1st Goal of Game | % | 2nd/3rd Goal | % | 4-5th Goal | % | 6-7th Goal | % | 8-9th goal | % | 10+ goal | %
Wayne Gretzky | 895 | 85 | 9% | 211 | 24% | 189 | 21% | 190 | 21% | 113 | 13% | 107 | 12%
Jaromir Jagr | 753 | 130 | 17% | 221 | 29% | 193 | 26% | 114 | 15% | 69 | 9% | 26 | 3%
Brett Hull | 742 | 131 | 18% | 232 | 31% | 195 | 26% | 106 | 14% | 54 | 7% | 24 | 3%
Marcel Dionne | 729 | 97 | 13% | 189 | 26% | 175 | 24% | 137 | 19% | 79 | 11% | 52 | 7%
Phil Esposito | 717 | 102 | 14% | 210 | 29% | 180 | 25% | 111 | 15% | 80 | 11% | 34 | 5%
Mike Gartner | 707 | 87 | 12% | 195 | 28% | 179 | 25% | 130 | 18% | 79 | 11% | 37 | 5%
Mark Messier | 693 | 110 | 16% | 181 | 26% | 157 | 23% | 109 | 16% | 89 | 13% | 47 | 7%
Steve Yzerman | 691 | 100 | 14% | 202 | 29% | 163 | 24% | 128 | 19% | 65 | 9% | 33 | 5%
Mario Lemieux | 690 | 100 | 14% | 148 | 21% | 156 | 23% | 145 | 21% | 77 | 11% | 64 | 9%
Teemu Selanne | 685 | 119 | 17% | 239 | 35% | 162 | 24% | 97 | 14% | 44 | 6% | 24 | 4%
Luc Robitaille | 668 | 83 | 12% | 222 | 33% | 164 | 25% | 100 | 15% | 61 | 9% | 38 | 6%
Brendan Shanahan | 658 | 109 | 17% | 189 | 29% | 198 | 30% | 99 | 15% | 43 | 7% | 20 | 3%
Gordie Howe | 641 | 104 | 16% | 212 | 33% | 190 | 30% | 93 | 15% | 32 | 5% | 10 | 2%
Dave Andreychuk | 639 | 105 | 16% | 194 | 30% | 164 | 26% | 110 | 17% | 43 | 7% | 23 | 4%
Joe Sakic | 625 | 117 | 19% | 193 | 31% | 148 | 24% | 103 | 16% | 44 | 7% | 20 | 3%
Jarome Iginla | 611 | 111 | 18% | 223 | 36% | 157 | 26% | 89 | 15% | 20 | 3% | 11 | 2%
Bobby Hull | 610 | 112 | 18% | 203 | 33% | 145 | 24% | 89 | 15% | 39 | 6% | 22 | 4%
Dino Ciccarelli | 609 | 91 | 15% | 162 | 27% | 150 | 25% | 107 | 18% | 59 | 10% | 40 | 7%
Jari Kurri | 589 | 56 | 10% | 133 | 23% | 139 | 24% | 104 | 18% | 86 | 15% | 71 | 12%
Mark Recchi | 576 | 78 | 14% | 186 | 32% | 163 | 28% | 87 | 15% | 42 | 7% | 20 | 3%
Mike Bossy | 574 | 65 | 11% | 150 | 26% | 139 | 24% | 111 | 19% | 62 | 11% | 47 | 8%
Joe Nieuwendyk | 566 | 84 | 15% | 189 | 33% | 138 | 24% | 95 | 17% | 42 | 7% | 18 | 3%
Mike Modano | 564 | 104 | 18% | 165 | 29% | 168 | 30% | 81 | 14% | 32 | 6% | 14 | 2%
Mats Sundin | 563 | 78 | 14% | 183 | 33% | 146 | 26% | 94 | 17% | 43 | 8% | 19 | 3%
Guy Lafleur | 560 | 67 | 12% | 171 | 31% | 130 | 23% | 115 | 21% | 50 | 9% | 27 | 5%
Johnny Bucyk | 556 | 89 | 16% | 176 | 32% | 140 | 25% | 87 | 16% | 38 | 7% | 26 | 5%
Ron Francis | 550 | 68 | 12% | 169 | 31% | 123 | 22% | 93 | 17% | 64 | 12% | 33 | 6%
Michel Goulet | 548 | 74 | 14% | 156 | 28% | 133 | 24% | 95 | 17% | 62 | 11% | 28 | 5%
Stan Mikita | 540 | 96 | 18% | 159 | 29% | 150 | 28% | 88 | 16% | 35 | 6% | 12 | 2%
Keith Tkachuk | 538 | 105 | 20% | 150 | 28% | 159 | 30% | 67 | 12% | 46 | 9% | 11 | 2%
Frank Mahovlich | 534 | 84 | 16% | 179 | 34% | 137 | 26% | 87 | 16% | 34 | 6% | 13 | 2%
Alex Ovechkin | 525 | 97 | 18% | 160 | 30% | 151 | 29% | 68 | 13% | 40 | 8% | 9 | 2%
Bryan Trottier | 524 | 84 | 16% | 138 | 26% | 140 | 27% | 82 | 16% | 50 | 10% | 30 | 6%
Pat Verbeek | 520 | 74 | 14% | 148 | 28% | 134 | 26% | 84 | 16% | 52 | 10% | 28 | 5%
Dale Hawerchuk | 518 | 67 | 13% | 152 | 29% | 127 | 25% | 98 | 19% | 37 | 7% | 37 | 7%
Pierre Turgeon | 515 | 84 | 16% | 162 | 31% | 139 | 27% | 78 | 15% | 30 | 6% | 22 | 4%
Gilbert Perreault | 513 | 83 | 16% | 145 | 28% | 139 | 27% | 85 | 17% | 33 | 6% | 28 | 5%
Jeremy Roenick | 513 | 92 | 18% | 175 | 34% | 130 | 25% | 69 | 13% | 37 | 7% | 10 | 2%
Jean Beliveau | 502 | 84 | 17% | 163 | 32% | 126 | 25% | 79 | 16% | 33 | 7% | 17 | 3%
Joe Mullen | 502 | 61 | 12% | 138 | 27% | 122 | 24% | 99 | 20% | 44 | 9% | 38 | 8%
Peter Bondra | 502 | 70 | 14% | 172 | 34% | 121 | 24% | 83 | 17% | 41 | 8% | 15 | 3%
Lanny McDonald | 501 | 76 | 15% | 121 | 24% | 118 | 24% | 86 | 17% | 58 | 12% | 42 | 8%
Marian Hossa | 500 | 72 | 14% | 147 | 29% | 152 | 30% | 98 | 20% | 23 | 5% | 8 | 2%
Glenn Anderson | 497 | 59 | 12% | 130 | 26% | 119 | 24% | 90 | 18% | 55 | 11% | 44 | 9%
Jean Ratelle | 491 | 83 | 17% | 157 | 32% | 120 | 24% | 70 | 14% | 42 | 9% | 19 | 4%
Norm Ullman | 488 | 77 | 16% | 148 | 30% | 132 | 27% | 80 | 16% | 34 | 7% | 17 | 3%
Brian Bellows | 484 | 69 | 14% | 146 | 30% | 110 | 23% | 95 | 20% | 36 | 7% | 28 | 6%
Darryl Sittler | 484 | 68 | 14% | 120 | 25% | 115 | 24% | 104 | 21% | 52 | 11% | 25 | 5%
Sergei Fedorov | 483 | 81 | 17% | 165 | 34% | 120 | 25% | 78 | 16% | 26 | 5% | 13 | 3%
Patrick Marleau | 478 | 81 | 17% | 157 | 33% | 152 | 32% | 58 | 12% | 21 | 4% | 9 | 2%

Very interesting and excellent work.Jean Beliveau to Wayne Gretzky comparable is very striking. The difference in first goals is1, favouring Gretzky but the difference in total goals is 3913. Also the 10+ column gives us a clear indication about playing time in blow-outs - Gretzky and Kurri are the only players over 10%. Likewise they have the losest percentages for first goals. Somewhat understandable given their knack for multiple goal games but revealing nonetheless.

It would be interesting to see how the first goal numbers are supported by assists on first goals scored by teammates. How many assists does Gretzky have on the first goal of the game and so forth.

 

[morehockeystats]

Here's the big table with the numbers for all 50 players.

Rk | Player | Goals | Blowout L Goals | Rally Goals | Tying Goals | Go-Ahead Goals | Insurance Goals | Blowout W Goals | Blowout L VsExpected | Rally VsExpected | Tying VsExpected | Go-Ahead VsExpected | Insurance VsExpected | Blowout W VsExpected
1 | Wayne Gretzky | 895 | 20 | 95 | 137 | 213 | 295 | 135 | -3 | -15 | -1 | -24 | 29 | 14
2 | Jaromir Jagr | 753 | 9 | 93 | 124 | 258 | 209 | 60 | -6 | 4 | -2 | 14 | -9 | 0
3 | Brett Hull | 742 | 21 | 88 | 127 | 264 | 191 | 51 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 27 | -30 | -9
4 | Marcel Dionne | 729 | 27 | 109 | 109 | 215 | 207 | 62 | -6 | 0 | -13 | 6 | 14 | -1
5 | Phil Esposito | 717 | 17 | 52 | 109 | 194 | 244 | 101 | -2 | -13 | 14 | -1 | 13 | -11
6 | Mike Gartner | 707 | 18 | 105 | 112 | 191 | 210 | 71 | -2 | 18 | -3 | -23 | 6 | 5
7 | Mark Messier | 693 | 12 | 86 | 107 | 221 | 199 | 68 | -6 | 2 | -1 | 26 | -11 | -10
8 | Steve Yzerman | 691 | 17 | 91 | 118 | 200 | 206 | 59 | -3 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 7 | -8
9 | Mario Lemieux | 690 | 27 | 84 | 106 | 205 | 202 | 66 | 0 | -8 | -11 | 11 | 10 | -2
10 | Teemu Selanne | 686 | 10 | 74 | 124 | 232 | 215 | 31 | -6 | -15 | -4 | 3 | 26 | -4
11 | Luc Robitaille | 668 | 13 | 94 | 118 | 197 | 190 | 56 | -4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 | -3
12 | Brendan Shanahan | 658 | 13 | 65 | 101 | 221 | 212 | 46 | -1 | -5 | -11 | 5 | 14 | -1
13 | Gordie Howe | 641 | 17 | 69 | 112 | 180 | 208 | 55 | -2 | -2 | 9 | -16 | 14 | -2
14 | Dave Andreychuk | 639 | 11 | 86 | 137 | 203 | 166 | 36 | -4 | 11 | 22 | -2 | -15 | -13
15 | Joe Sakic | 625 | 13 | 77 | 132 | 210 | 161 | 32 | -4 | -2 | 19 | 10 | -9 | -13
16 | Jarome Iginla | 613 | 9 | 73 | 116 | 206 | 187 | 22 | 0 | 1 | -2 | -15 | 21 | -6
17 | Bobby Hull | 611 | 8 | 56 | 98 | 186 | 199 | 63 | -3 | -4 | 10 | 2 | 2 | -8
18 | Dino Ciccarelli | 609 | 17 | 94 | 88 | 176 | 184 | 50 | -1 | 8 | -11 | -2 | 13 | -6
19 | Jari Kurri | 589 | 13 | 63 | 96 | 151 | 193 | 73 | -1 | -4 | 9 | -8 | 11 | -7
20 | Mark Recchi | 577 | 28 | 74 | 102 | 171 | 170 | 32 | 11 | 1 | -2 | -11 | 11 | -10
21 | Mike Bossy | 574 | 11 | 61 | 89 | 139 | 190 | 84 | 1 | 7 | 7 | -25 | 9 | 3
22 | Joe Nieuwendyk | 566 | 7 | 57 | 93 | 185 | 166 | 58 | -1 | -1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1
23 | Mike Modano | 565 | 11 | 58 | 106 | 191 | 161 | 38 | 1 | -7 | 8 | -3 | 0 | 1
24 | Mats Sundin | 563 | 12 | 88 | 103 | 170 | 160 | 30 | -2 | 15 | 3 | -13 | 4 | -7
25 | Guy Lafleur | 560 | 11 | 38 | 84 | 148 | 180 | 99 | 0 | -11 | 9 | -2 | 1 | 3
26 | Johnny Bucyk | 556 | 16 | 60 | 84 | 166 | 175 | 55 | -3 | -1 | 0 | 9 | 8 | -13
27 | Ron Francis | 550 | 18 | 66 | 105 | 165 | 143 | 53 | -1 | -8 | 9 | -9 | -5 | 14
28 | Michel Goulet | 548 | 16 | 74 | 88 | 167 | 154 | 49 | -3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | -1 | -7
29 | Stan Mikita | 540 | 13 | 44 | 72 | 171 | 185 | 55 | 3 | -10 | -8 | 10 | 14 | -8
30 | Keith Tkachuk | 538 | 13 | 63 | 109 | 175 | 150 | 28 | -2 | -6 | 8 | -7 | 5 | 3
31 | Frank Mahovlich | 534 | 12 | 51 | 58 | 159 | 195 | 59 | 0 | -5 | -17 | 0 | 22 | 0
32 | Alex Ovechkin | 532 | 14 | 68 | 98 | 186 | 144 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | -7
33 | Bryan Trottier | 524 | 7 | 53 | 71 | 144 | 188 | 61 | -3 | 1 | -6 | -6 | 26 | -13
34 | Pat Verbeek | 520 | 22 | 82 | 91 | 147 | 138 | 40 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -14 | 1 | 8
35 | Dale Hawerchuk | 518 | 22 | 58 | 115 | 153 | 129 | 41 | -1 | -11 | 25 | -1 | -10 | -2
36 | Pierre Turgeon | 515 | 10 | 56 | 87 | 179 | 147 | 36 | -1 | -5 | -6 | 17 | -3 | -2
37 | Jeremy Roenick | 513 | 8 | 50 | 82 | 171 | 164 | 38 | -4 | -3 | -1 | -2 | 9 | 0
38 | Gilbert Perreault | 513 | 5 | 50 | 92 | 156 | 145 | 65 | -8 | -5 | 11 | 6 | -6 | 1
39 | Jean Beliveau | 502 | 4 | 36 | 66 | 139 | 191 | 66 | -3 | -2 | -2 | -12 | 22 | -3
40 | Peter Bondra | 502 | 8 | 54 | 101 | 155 | 141 | 43 | -2 | -10 | 9 | -9 | 3 | 9
41 | Joe Mullen | 502 | 22 | 56 | 89 | 154 | 131 | 50 | 6 | -4 | 7 | 10 | -14 | -5
42 | Lanny McDonald | 501 | 12 | 75 | 88 | 128 | 155 | 43 | -7 | 0 | 1 | -10 | 18 | -2
43 | Marian Hossa | 500 | 8 | 39 | 83 | 161 | 163 | 46 | 2 | -7 | -6 | -9 | 14 | 6
44 | Glenn Anderson | 497 | 6 | 38 | 66 | 136 | 188 | 63 | -5 | -17 | -9 | 2 | 32 | -3
45 | Jean Ratelle | 491 | 11 | 57 | 68 | 141 | 158 | 56 | -2 | 12 | -5 | -2 | 1 | -4
46 | Norm Ullman | 488 | 17 | 74 | 65 | 144 | 136 | 52 | 2 | 11 | -20 | -4 | 1 | 10
47 | Brian Bellows | 484 | 15 | 79 | 87 | 150 | 122 | 31 | -1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | -8 | -4
48 | Darryl Sittler | 484 | 17 | 69 | 85 | 152 | 113 | 48 | -3 | 0 | 4 | 15 | -18 | 3
49 | Sergei Fedorov | 483 | 10 | 38 | 66 | 189 | 143 | 37 | 2 | -9 | -10 | 31 | -6 | -8
50 | Patrick Marleau | 481 | 5 | 57 | 74 | 164 | 154 | 27 | -1 | 5 | -13 | 2 | 16 | -9

The goal totals are off by 1 or 2 for a couple of players, which is probably because of inconsistencies with the sources data.

Why does Gordie Howe have only 641 goal in this table?
As I understand, it's # of the game's goal, not team's goal, i.e. 10+ can easily be off 5-5 and 10-0 at the same time?

 

[overpass]

Why does Gordie Howe have only 641 goal in this table?

Stats only go back to 1952-53.

As I understand, it's # of the game's goal, not team's goal, i.e. 10+ can easily be off 5-5 and 10-0 at the same time?

Correct. I was mostly interested in the first goal of the game stat, and then extended the concept to the remaining goals.

Thanks for posting the link to your stats on clutch goals. Many of the same names appear at the top. Marian Hossa ranked high for clutch late game goals - so he wasn't just scoring empty netters.

 

[morehockeystats]

Stats only go back to 1952-53.



Correct. I was mostly interested in the first goal of the game stat, and then extended the concept to the remaining goals.

Thanks for posting the link to your stats on clutch goals. Many of the same names appear at the top. Marian Hossa ranked high for clutch late game goals - so he wasn't just scoring empty netters.

The latter ones appear to be Joe Thornton's speciality this season, he doesn't even always need to shoot to score them.

 

[RageQuit77]

Excellent work with relevant stats, and with quite comprehensive handling of the data of the topic.

This kind of stuff really pays all hours put for it to get it together.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Great work doing all of this research!

One thing that stands out is how "typical" Guy Lafleur's numbers are (that is, how there aren't major variances between expected and actual goals). Given that the 1970s Canadiens may have been the greatest team of all-time, I found it interesting that he didn't score more blowout win goals than expected.

Also interesting that Sakic has more playoff OT goals than regular season OT goals. I can't imagine that's true for many star players.

 

[overpass]

Great work doing all of this research!

One thing that stands out is how "typical" Guy Lafleur's numbers are (that is, how there aren't major variances between expected and actual goals). Given that the 1970s Canadiens may have been the greatest team of all-time, I found it interesting that he didn't score more blowout win goals than expected.

Also interesting that Sakic has more playoff OT goals than regular season OT goals. I can't imagine that's true for many star players.

The expected numbers are calculated using the player's own team as a baseline. The intention was, among other things, to provide a fair comparison for players like Lafleur, Esposito and Gretzky who played on great offensive teams in a lot of blowouts.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

The expected numbers are calculated using the player's own team as a baseline. The intention was, among other things, to provide a fair comparison for players like Lafleur, Esposito and Gretzky who played on great offensive teams in a lot of blowouts.

Thanks for clarifying. In other words, Lafleur scored a lot of blowout win goals (#3 on the list by my count), but that was roughly what we would have expected given the strength of his team.

 

[decma]

Here's another way to slice the data posted above. I've added the numbers for Tying Goals and Go-Ahead Goals and called them Game-Changing Goals - because they change the game from a tied state to one team having the advantage, or vice versa.

Here are all 50 players, sorted by Game-Changing Goals.

Brett Hull, Jaromir Jagr, and Teemu Selanne all move ahead of Wayne Gretzky on the all-time leaders when looking only at Game-Changing Goals. Something to keep in mind when discussing the top goal-scorers of all time.

Joe Sakic, Dave Andreychuk, and Mark Messier also had very impressive totals in Game-Changing Goals.

Rk | Player | Goals | Game-Changing Goals | Other Goals | G-C VsExpected | Other VsExpected
1 | Brett Hull | 742 | 391 | 351 | 29 | -29
2 | Jaromir Jagr | 753 | 382 | 371 | 12 | -12
3 | Teemu Selanne | 686 | 356 | 330 | -1 | 1
4 | Wayne Gretzky | 895 | 350 | 545 | -25 | 25
5 | Joe Sakic | 625 | 342 | 283 | 28 | -28
6 | Dave Andreychuk | 639 | 340 | 299 | 21 | -21
7 | Mark Messier | 693 | 328 | 365 | 25 | -25
8 | Marcel Dionne | 729 | 324 | 405 | -7 | 7
9 | Brendan Shanahan | 658 | 322 | 336 | -6 | 6
10 | Jarome Iginla | 613 | 322 | 291 | -16 | 16
11 | Steve Yzerman | 691 | 318 | 373 | -1 | 1
12 | Luc Robitaille | 668 | 315 | 353 | 2 | -2
13 | Mario Lemieux | 690 | 311 | 379 | 0 | 0
14 | Phil Esposito | 717 | 303 | 414 | 13 | -13
15 | Mike Gartner | 707 | 303 | 404 | -26 | 26
16 | Mike Modano | 565 | 297 | 268 | 6 | -6
17 | Gordie Howe | 641 | 292 | 349 | -8 | 8
18 | Bobby Hull | 578 | 284 | 326 | 11 | -12
19 | Keith Tkachuk | 538 | 284 | 254 | 0 | 0
20 | Alex Ovechkin | 532 | 284 | 248 | 2 | -2
21 | Joe Nieuwendyk | 566 | 278 | 288 | 3 | -3
22 | Mark Recchi | 577 | 273 | 304 | -13 | 13
23 | Mats Sundin | 563 | 273 | 290 | -10 | 10
24 | Ron Francis | 550 | 270 | 280 | 0 | 0
25 | Dale Hawerchuk | 518 | 268 | 250 | 23 | -23
26 | Pierre Turgeon | 515 | 266 | 249 | 11 | -11
27 | Dino Ciccarelli | 609 | 264 | 345 | -14 | 14
28 | Peter Bondra | 502 | 256 | 246 | 0 | 0
29 | Michel Goulet | 548 | 255 | 293 | 11 | -11
30 | Sergei Fedorov | 483 | 255 | 228 | 21 | -21
31 | Jeremy Roenick | 513 | 253 | 260 | -2 | 2
32 | Johnny Bucyk | 556 | 250 | 306 | 9 | -9
33 | Gilbert Perreault | 513 | 248 | 265 | 17 | -17
34 | Jari Kurri | 589 | 247 | 342 | 1 | -1
35 | Marian Hossa | 500 | 244 | 256 | -15 | 15
36 | Stan Mikita | 540 | 243 | 297 | 1 | -1
37 | Joe Mullen | 502 | 243 | 259 | 17 | -17
38 | Pat Verbeek | 520 | 238 | 282 | -13 | 13
39 | Patrick Marleau | 481 | 238 | 243 | -11 | 11
40 | Darryl Sittler | 484 | 237 | 247 | 19 | -19
41 | Brian Bellows | 484 | 237 | 247 | 12 | -12
42 | Guy Lafleur | 560 | 232 | 328 | 7 | -7
43 | Mike Bossy | 574 | 228 | 346 | -19 | 19
44 | Frank Mahovlich | 534 | 217 | 317 | -16 | 16
45 | Lanny McDonald | 501 | 216 | 285 | -9 | 9
46 | Bryan Trottier | 524 | 215 | 309 | -12 | 12
47 | Jean Ratelle | 491 | 209 | 282 | -7 | 7
48 | Norm Ullman | 488 | 209 | 279 | -24 | 24
49 | Jean Beliveau | 502 | 205 | 297 | -14 | 14
50 | Glenn Anderson | 497 | 202 | 295 | -8 | 8

Very interesting work. Did you also look at goals vs expected goals in close games vs. non-close games (with close defined as margin of <3 goals, e.g.)? This would be similar to game-changing, but with a slightly looser definition.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Very interesting and excellent work.Jean Beliveau to Wayne Gretzky comparable is very striking. The difference in first goals is1, favouring Gretzky but the difference in total goals is 3913. Also the 10+ column gives us a clear indication about playing time in blow-outs - Gretzky and Kurri are the only players over 10%. Likewise they have the losest percentages for first goals. Somewhat understandable given their knack for multiple goal games but revealing nonetheless.

It would be interesting to see how the first goal numbers are supported by assists on first goals scored by teammates. How many assists does Gretzky have on the first goal of the game and so forth.

Just because it's a 10+ goal of a game doesn't mean the game is a blowout, these could be goals in 6-5 games. It's 10+ in total goals for the game, not 10+ for their own team.

I think it's fair to say that as league scoring levels increase the first goal (or one-goal leads in general) become less valuable.

The benefit of getting a lead is that it may force your opponent to change their style of play...I wonder if in high scoring eras coaches would wait until down by 2-3 goals to change their style of play whereas in lower scoring eras coaches would make the change as soon as they found themselves down by 1 goal?

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

This is great work overpass. Do you have tables that show a player's goals in each of the 6 situations as a percentage of their total career goals?

I would be interested in seeing the same thing for trailing/leading/tied as well as game changing goals.

This project sure does make Brett Hull look good.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Quick Check

Just because it's a 10+ goal of a game doesn't mean the game is a blowout, these could be goals in 6-5 games. It's 10+ in total goals for the game, not 10+ for their own team.

I think it's fair to say that as league scoring levels increase the first goal (or one-goal leads in general) become less valuable.

The benefit of getting a lead is that it may force your opponent to change their style of play...I wonder if in high scoring eras coaches would wait until down by 2-3 goals to change their style of play whereas in lower scoring eras coaches would make the change as soon as they found themselves down by 1 goal?

Quick check, two random seasons from each of Beliveau's and Gretzky's careers show a rough total of 80 such games where combined the two teams scored 10+ goals. about 18% were ties or one goal differentials. Even then there are few back and forth games, some late game rallies making it close.

The high scoring games 10+ tend to point to a fatigue factor especially when a contending teams gets blown out by a bottom third team.

Key element seems to be first goal scored by the home or away team. Away team scoring the first goal has a distinct advantage, since their coach can simply run his best checking line as first option off the bench and keep them on the ice. Home team coach then has a choice - play the scoring line against the checking line or sit them on the bench and reducing their TOI.

 

[TOGuy14]

Not as in-depth as your research but Mats Sundin seemed to be a right moment goal scorer.

He is the Leafs career leader in overtime goals (15) and game winning goals (79).

Not sure if that has to do with "clutch" or just being the best player on the team, meaning the puck was on his stick more than anyone elses.

 

[morehockeystats]

Not as in-depth as your research but Mats Sundin seemed to be a right moment goal scorer.

He is the Leafs career leader in overtime goals (15) and game winning goals (79).

Not sure if that has to do with "clutch" or just being the best player on the team, meaning the puck was on his stick more than anyone elses.

I, personally, have a problem with the NHL GWG definition. For me, the true GWG is the goal that breaks a tie and remains unanswered. Otherwise it's a subject to really random factors, such as a 19:55 goal scored by the opposition with empty net to cut it down from 2-4 to 3-4, or a game that goes 1-0,2-0,3-0,3-1,4-1,5-1,5-2. In such games I don't see a true GWG worthy of noting at all.

 

[BenchBrawl]

I, personally, have a problem with the NHL GWG definition. For me, the true GWG is the goal that breaks a tie and remains unanswered. Otherwise it's a subject to really random factors, such as a 19:55 goal scored by the opposition with empty net to cut it down from 2-4 to 3-4, or a game that goes 1-0,2-0,3-0,3-1,4-1,5-1,5-2. In such games I don't see a true GWG worthy of noting at all.

I'd go as far as saying that any goal not scored in the 3rd period or overtime is not a ''true'' game winning goal, on top of your definition.

For me, a ''true'' game winning goal, insofar as we name it that way to define it as a clutch goal, is a goal in the 3rd period where the game is tied and the player breaks that tie, with the other team never answering.Maybe a late 2nd period goal who fits those criterias can qualify too, but the further we go from the end of the game, the less comfortable I am with it.

Maybe there's a neat way to weight the value of any such game winning goal (based on your definition) based on how temporally far from the end of the game it is.The further from the end of the game, the less value it has as a ''clutch goal''.

 

[morehockeystats]

I'd go as far as saying that any goal not scored in the 3rd period or overtime is not a ''true'' game winning goal, on top of your definition.

For me, a ''true'' game winning goal, insofar as we name it that way to define it as a clutch goal, is a goal in the 3rd period where the game is tied and the player breaks that tie, with the other team never answering.Maybe a late 2nd period goal who fits those criterias can qualify too, but the further we go from the end of the game, the less comfortable I am with it.

Maybe there's a neat way to weight the value of any such game winning goal (based on your definition) based on how temporally far from the end of the game it is.The further from the end of the game, the less value it has as a ''clutch goal''.

On my website I do a very rough implementation of that, in that I have three factors:
a GEG (Game-Ending Goal) is worth 2.5 pts.
a non-answered GWG in the last 3 minutes is worth 2 pts.
a non-answered GWG otherwise is worth 1 pts.
However, I like your idea of finer scaling and will think of implementing it, thanks.

 

[Ralph Spoilsport]

Maybe there's a neat way to weight the value of any such game winning goal (based on your definition) based on how temporally far from the end of the game it is.The further from the end of the game, the less value it has as a ''clutch goal''.

I've seen it proposed elsewhere on this forum: the clutch value of any goal can be measured by how much it increases the scoring team's expectation of winning, depending on the effect it has on the lead and the amount of time left on the clock.

All it needs is someone with access to the data and a lot of time on their hands.

 

[Ralph Spoilsport]

On my website I do a very rough implementation of that, in that I have three factors:
a GEG (Game-Ending Goal) is worth 2.5 pts.
a non-answered GWG in the last 3 minutes is worth 2 pts.
a non-answered GWG otherwise is worth 1 pts.
However, I like your idea of finer scaling and will think of implementing it, thanks.

Seems to me an overtime goal should be the least valuable…how clutch can it be when the game will just be decided by a shootout anyway even if no one scores? More importantly though each team is already guaranteed a point in the standings, so unlike a regulation time winning/tying goal the extra point doesn't come at the opponent's expense.

Talking regular season of course. Playoffs is a different story.

 

[morehockeystats]

Seems to me an overtime goal should be the least valuable…how clutch can it be when the game will just be decided by a shootout anyway even if no one scores? More importantly though each team is already guaranteed a point in the standings, so unlike a regulation time winning/tying goal the extra point doesn't come at the opponent's expense.

Talking regular season of course. Playoffs is a different story.

The OT goal decides the game, without leaving your opponent any chance to respond.

But everyone is welcome to rank the goals differently, moreover I provide breakdown by goal types.

 

[threetimer*]

Great job gentlemen.

 

[The Panther]

Those are interesting stats. It would be interesting, I think, to see 'Go-ahead', 'Rally', 'Tying', etc. goals for each player expressed as a percentage of their totals, rather than in raw terms.

 

[morehockeystats]

I gathered a team-based statistic for allowing a goal quickly after scoring a lead-changing goal and vice versa. Quite a timely goal scoring metric imho.

http://morehockeystats.com/teams/relaxation