avssuc
Hockey is for everyone!
Boston Bruins. And they are still rolling that way.
Well, not you, but here is one of my replies to this fodder:
1) THe Bruins didn't tank to win, and don't think they had hardly any high draft pcks on the 2011 team except Seguin, who never hit his stride in Boston anyhow.
2) Perhaps the most depressing thing is however, is I don't think the Wings are in a position to tank well.
1) Define "high picks". I know your qualifying remark was "on the team", but you can't simply ignore trades from the recent past. Part of the package that came back for Sampsonov was a 2nd round pick used to get Lucic. Sampsonov himself was taken with a pick acquired from Carolina years prior.
Going deeper, Thornton (former #1 overall) returned Brad Stuart (former #3 overall pick), Wayne Primeau (former 17th overall), and Marco Strum (former 21st overall). Stuart was a UFA to be in 2007, so instead of potentially crippling the team with his demand Boston (Chiarelli, now with Edmonton) packaged him with Primeau for Andrew Ference and Chuck Kobasew. Ference was credited with shifting momentum in the 2011 Final; Kobasew was flipped in 2011 for 2nd and 4th round picks. Strum was a perennial 20 goal scorer prior to the trade and continued for several years in Boston before an injury cut his career short in 2010. Kessel (former #5 overall) was flipped for the second picks of rounds 1 & 2 in 2010, and the 9th overall in 2011.
All of the early salary management permitted Boston to snag a Norris trophy caliber UFA in 2006. So essentially, you might be correct with what you said, but the formula underneath your comment is something that's totally foreign to Holland and Wings brass. They have reached the total opposite end of this spectrum, capped by the most recent bloody July 1st that may go down in infamy.
In terms of picks, here are the 14 years prior to the cup, and the cup draft. Let's just say that any team in the lottery that has 5% or greater chance of winning is good placement (that's the single digit picks). Just how many did Boston have in this period? A total of 7, just under 50% of which came from aggressive trading.
1 9 2011 (FROM TOR) DOUGIE HAMILTON
1 2 2010 (FROM TOR) TYLER SEGUIN
1 25 2009 JORDAN CARON
1 16 2008 JOE COLBORNE
1 8 2007 ZACH HAMILL
1 5 2006 PHIL KESSEL
1 22 2005 MATT LASHOFF
1 21 2003 (FROM TOR)MARK STUART
1 29 2002 HANNU TOIVONEN
1 19 2001 (FROM EDM)SHAONE MORRISONN
1 7 2000 LARS JONSSON
1 27 2000 (FROM NJD) MARTIN SAMUELSSON L
1 21 1999 NICK BOYNTON
1 1 1997 JOE THORNTON
1 8 1997 SERGEI SAMSONOV
2) So yea, you touch on the fact that the Wings may not be able to tank well. Problem is, they aren't in position to build like Boston did either. As I mentioned earlier, your suggestion is nullified by reality. The Datsyuk trade (what apologists use as proof positive that Holland is a genius) may have been the worst thing to happen to this franchise in decades. It let Holland go hog wild in FA when they needed the exact opposite, and 'may have' gifted a blue-chip defender in the process. I'm not trying to be Chicken Little, but there isn't much to be optimistic about 2 games in. The season is very young though, so it's way too early to write this years team off. However, using history, advanced analytics, and common sense... it's fairly easy to write them off in 2017 and years to come after.
THe Bruins didn't tank to win, and don't think they had hardly any high draft pcks on the 2011 team except Seguin, who never hit his stride in Boston anyhow.
I also agree with Claypool that the league is changing.
The Edmonton Oilers will likely be a cap team in another year or two (They currently only have $4 million in cap space).
Not that he still has more GM magic, but Pete Chiarelli guided Boston into their cap era cup runs, got canned, and was hired by Edmonton a month later. He is seemingly the Anti-Holland, so I doubt Edmonton will be too bad off with their cap. There's obviously an element of luck in what he does, but same went for Holland finding two-thirds, of his only real claim to modern success, in the last rounds of the draft. But I guess that success falls on Nill... right? Didn't he turn into the whipping boy in that area? In that respect, we can also blame Nill for overseeing the Datsyuk pick... since it eventually turned into the trade that 'may have' set the franchise back many years.
That trade to get rid of Datsyuks contract was good in that moment as we needed it to go after Stamkos. The biggest problem was we didnt get Stamkos though its still not a bad trade.
The bad part came when we dropped $4M on Helm, $5M on Nielsen for another 6 years or whatever.
Since when did Stamkos play D?
Joking aside, I'm aware of the 'supposed' strategy (the one pumped by Wings PR staff at the FREEP, News, MLive and most media outlets), but if the trade never happened, Holland would have been restrained. Since we all know that Holland loves to go hogging in FA (like that one friend we have that raises his numbers by lowering his standards), we should have seen the ugliness that cap space presented. Problem this time is, Holland may have gotten one of the hogs pregnant... with pain for many years the result.
In terms of the percentages behind drafting high, you could make a case either way, but it seems pretty obvious that it's much harder to build without. You certainly can't sign top 9 fodder long term for inflated prices and repackage them as top tier. That's what the Wings brass have done. Instead of calling for a medivac and planning on a tactical retreat, they've left the tourniquet on the org to keep them in the fight. A totally unnecessary fight where ego is the only item being protected.
http://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-expected-value-of-nhl-draft-picks-1.317819
This latest update goes through NHL Drafts from 1990 through 2010:
10 - Generational
9 - Elite Player
8 - First Line, Top Pair D
7 - Top Six Forward, Top Four D
6 - Top Nine Forward, Top Six D
5 - NHL Regular, 350+ NHL games
4 - Fringe NHLer, 200+ NHL games
3 - Very Good Minor Leaguer, 50-200 NHL games
2 - Minor Leaguer, under 50 NHL games
1 - 10 or fewer NHL games
-Forwards in First 5 Picks
Average Rating: 7.22
Ranked 7 or better: 73.8%
Ranked 5 or worse: 12.3%
At Least 100 NHL Games (or very likely): 95.4%
Points Per Game: 0.75
-Defencemen in First 5 Picks
Average Rating: 6.85
Ranked 7 or better: 64.7%
Ranked 5 or worse: 8.9%
At Least 100 NHL Games (or very likely): 100.0%
-Goaltenders in First 5 Picks
Average Rating: 7.30
Ranked 7 or better: 80.0%
Ranked 5 or worse: 0.0%
At Least 100 NHL Games (or very likely): 100.0%
-Forwards in First 30 Picks
Average Rating: 5.04
Ranked 7 or better: 34.5%
Ranked 5 or worse: 48.5%
At Least 100 NHL Games (or very likely): 74.7%
Points Per Game: 0.58
-Defencemen in First 30 Picks
Average Rating: 4.69
Ranked 7 or better: 30.9%
Ranked 5 or worse: 53.1%
At Least 100 NHL Games (or very likely): 70.5%
-Goaltenders in First 30 Picks
Average Rating: 4.00
Ranked 7 or better: 28.3%
Ranked 5 or worse: 63.0%
At Least 100 NHL Games (or very likely): 47.8%
And not to beat this dead horse up too much... but if Boston stands as an example, the Wings should be very open to the idea of trading Mrazek and Larkin. DeKeyser, Abdelkader, Helm, and everyone that can possibly be moved too, but that goes without saying.
Even if tanking isn't the goal, Boston made moves that they thought presented gains in more areas than one. They traded Kessel after a cup run, and the Thornton trade was a huge area of distress for some time.
This is a pretty good piece on the Thornton trade:
http://thehockeywriters.com/the-joe-thornton-trade-10-years-later/
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