Thoughts on the Canes at the (three) quarter pole: a novella

[GoldiFox]

Scott Darling currently has a better SV% on the Penalty Kill (89.5%) than on 5v5 (89.4%).

I don't know what to do with this information.

 

[bleedgreen]

I was looking forward to writing a book here, but kev said it almost exactly how I wouldn’t said it. I have little to add, I agree with all of that with exception of I’m a little more higher on Nylander that he is (but not by much).

Thank you for bringing up the Faulk clown show and it’s effect on the whole defensive layout as well as affecting Dougie - and bringing up how good a Dougie is. Part of Brindy’s ridiculous misuse has been leaving Slavin with Dougie together, and on the surface it’s at least 50% about helping Faulk rebound. Faulk should be gone, SlavinPesce should be reunited and see how Dehaan and Dougie do. Dougie should be the primary pp dman. Williams on the pp?!? On the second line?!? Tripp keeps going on about the third line being our best at times, that’s because Williams has made our second line a fourth.

 

[My Special Purpose]

I'm not disagreeing with you per se; I just think the boat has sailed on that option. I would rather target someone else at this point.

Oh for sure. I just thought we were in the business of second-guessing.

 

[My Special Purpose]

Where there's smoke with "culture change", there's surely fire. I believe it was Civian who stated that Faulk is a big presence in the locker room. That doesn't translate into someone you want to discard.

I find it very hard to believe that Skinner wasn't at least as big a presence as Faulk in the room. And having an extra year on the contract should make Faulk *easier* to trade. There's really no excuse for not following through on a Faulk deal after Hamilton was acquired.

 

[bleedgreen]

They said they wanted to move out people who had been here too long without winning a thing. That puts a bright spotlight on Skinner and Faulk and those are the two I immediately assumed. Rask and Staal were next for me but they love Staal so his lack of success was cool, and they tried to trade Rask I thought.

So Faulk getting moved seemed obvious. If all that rhetoric was purely for Skinner this regime can eff off x2. He played on the third line and was usually at best on the second pp unit, nothing about Skinner should’ve been the face of culture change and winning especially if the other three are staying.

 

[The Faulker 27]

I'm hoping Rask comes back, has chemistry with Svech, and somehow they play there way into the 2nd line. That would force Rod to move Staal and Williams to the 3rd line, which would actually be much better, and where they belong.

 

[bleedgreen]

Don’t disagree with that, Staal hasn’t really shown himself to be much more than a 3c plus. Since our other two centers aren’t that great at the position it makes him a great need here. My problem with Staal has mostly been expectations and contract. If the expectation was that he would be a high end three I probably would’ve loved him the whole time.

 

[My Special Purpose]

I'm hoping Rask comes back, has chemistry with Svech, and somehow they play there way into the 2nd line. That would force Rod to move Staal and Williams to the 3rd line, which would actually be much better, and where they belong.

See, I want to know why Staal- Williams are joined at the hip. They don't play off each other particularly well and their games don't compliment each other. I think it's worth a look to try Svechnikov with Staal and McGinn/Foegele. And maybe Williams fits with Rask or Wallmark. We'll never know.

 

[The Faulker 27]

See, I want to know why Staal- Williams are joined at the hip. They don't play off each other particularly well and their games don't compliment each other. I think it's worth a look to try Svechnikov with Staal and McGinn/Foegele. And maybe Williams fits with Rask or Wallmark. We'll never know.

I'm not sure. Rod holds the answer to that question in his infinite wisdom.

 

[AD Skinner]

I think that, much like his brother, Staal is a good Indian but not much of a chief. I really don't understand, especially looking back, the organization through multiple eras of management being so hellbent on making him part of the leadership group. I may be misremembering but didn't he say in an interview that he wasn't interested in being a captain? Maybe that was a while ago and he changed his mind, I don't know. I don't want it sound like I'm trying to criticize him as a person or player- some people take to leadership, want it, relish it, and some don't and neither way is right or wrong. I just wonder why if you have a player who is telling you I'd rather not have this position the brass would continue to put that square peg in the round hole.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

I love that there's a big to-do about who's on the first PP unit vs. who's on the second.

For the first month and a half of the season, it didn't matter who was on what unit. No one was producing. Hamilton, Faulk, Slavin, Williams, Staal, whoever. No one was putting it together.

Lately, we've actually improved a bit. In that it went from complete tirefire to occasionally scoring on the PP over the course of the game. Given how fragile the team generally is in all aspects of the game, my advice would be: DON'T TOUCH IT. It's working for now, meddling with the lines could screw that up.

 

[Ole Gil]

So, we want a No. 1 scoring center, but we don't want to pay for him? Is that how this works?

The team has a #1 scoring center in Aho. What the team needs is a 3C. But they also have Necas and Rask just around the corner.

The success of Aho and Ferlund have really shifted the teams needs up front from where it was in the offseason.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Trading Faulk for what he was likely worth on the market wouldn't have made Carolina a better team. Having Hamilton on PP1 perhaps improves his statline, but a better statline for Hamilton ≠ team success. Swapping out Faulk for Fleury/van Riemsdyk full-time would have made a team that struggles to score worse offensively. No, it wouldn't have been a defensive upgrade. Faulk has had his best sustained stretch of defensive hockey in a half-decade. He's been a brightspot. Maybe I shouldn't be, but I'm surprised he's drawing any ire right now.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

I really dislike Brind'Amour's resistance to changing it up when things aren't working, but the mediocrity of this group really isn't on him. This is a team capped by the talent on the roster. Stop trying to pin this on coaching. Stop trying to pin this on culture. Stop trying to pin this on leadership. There just aren't enough good players in a Carolina uniform when they take the ice. Until the FO addresses the talent deficit or Svechnikov and Necas develop, the team will continue to wallow in mediocrity.

 

[MinJaBen]

So, we want a No. 1 scoring center, but we don't want to pay for him? Is that how this works?

Duchene being a No. 1 scoring center is up for debate.

 

[MinJaBen]

Don’t disagree with that, Staal hasn’t really shown himself to be much more than a 3c plus. Since our other two centers aren’t that great at the position it makes him a great need here. My problem with Staal has mostly been expectations and contract. If the expectation was that he would be a high end three I probably would’ve loved him the whole time.

I think half the problem with Staal this year is that he is handcuffed to Williams. Williams doesn't/can't play the game that Staal's line should play. I'd trade away Williams before any player if I had the say to do so...even any of the defense.

 

[Canes]

I really dislike Brind'Amour's resistance to changing it up when things aren't working, but the mediocrity of this group really isn't on him. This is a team capped by the talent on the roster. Stop trying to pin this on coaching. Stop trying to pin this on culture. Stop trying to pin this on leadership. There just aren't enough good players in a Carolina uniform when they take the ice. Until the FO addresses the talent deficit or Svechnikov and Necas develop, the team will continue to wallow in mediocrity.

Even if Svechnikov AND Necas develop soon, this franchise has shown it can't ever build around the talent they do have. So I won't even be surprised to see us still suck when these two are scoring 60-80 points, especially as long we continue to cheap out on team salary year after year.

I have zero confidence Waddell can build a good team. He basically never did in Atlanta despite having several years and 1-2 franchise level talents there. Part of that can be attributed to the ownership group there, but Dundo looks to be pretty incompetent too until proven otherwise.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Even if Svechnikov AND Necas develop soon, this franchise has shown it can't ever build around the talent they do have. So I won't even be surprised to see us still suck when these two are scoring 60-80 points, especially as long we continue to cheap out on team salary year after year.

I have zero confidence Waddell can build a good team. He basically never did in Atlanta despite having several years and 1-2 franchise level talents there. Part of that can be attributed to the ownership group there, but Dundo looks to be pretty incompetent too until proven otherwise.

If Svechnikov and Necas develop to that level to go along with the Finns, the FO would have a tough time screwing that up. 3-4 60+ point forwards of prime age at the same time would put the organization in a much different place than they've been for much, if not all, of the decade. Questioning the financial commitment of ownership is fair. You just have to hope that while there's seemingly been an unwillingness to risk losses to make the team better, Dundon will be committed enough to maintain what's in place when they are better.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Forward Scoring Position	Mean Extrapolated Points (Playoff Teams) (17-18)	Carolina Extrapolated Points (17-18)	Net	Carolina Extrapolated Points (18-19)	Net
1	89	68	-21	94	5
2	75	64	-11	66	-9
3	65	51	-14	57	-8
4	52	49	-3	49	-3
5	47	48	1	37	-10
6	42	44	2	33	-9
7	39	39	0	25	-14
8	33	36	3	21	-13
9	28	31	3	21	-8

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Breaking out my table at the quarter point. Not perfect, but it gives a general idea of how the Top 9 stacks up. Last year, the middle-6 was playoff caliber, but the top end held them back. This year, the top end is closer to playoff caliber, but the middle-6, particularly the 3rd line, is hemorrhaging in the red.

 

[The Faulker 27]

I think half the problem with Staal this year is that he is handcuffed to Williams. Williams doesn't/can't play the game that Staal's line should play. I'd trade away Williams before any player if I had the say to do so...even any of the defense.

Let's be honest though, he's had his fair share of grade A chances on that line and can't put the biscuit in the basket. Absolutely, can not do it.

 

[Unsustainable]

Scott Darling currently has a better SV% on the Penalty Kill (89.5%) than on 5v5 (89.4%).

I don't know what to do with this information.

He understands what the other team is trying to do on the PP, but is not sure what they are doing in 5v5

 

[Blueline Bomber]

He understands what the other team is trying to do on the PP, but is not sure what they are doing in 5v5

The answer is always put the puck into the net behind him. His job is to stop that puck from entering the net by any means necessary. He fails at that job. A lot. More than anyone who's played as an NHL goaltender for as long as he has should be doing

 

[My Special Purpose]

Duchene being a No. 1 scoring center is up for debate.

Are we really doing this again? He's the No.3 scoring center in the NHL right now. There are more than three teams, right? A 70-point pace since joining Ottawa. I'd love to hear an argument that puts him outside the top 30 centers in the league.

 

[MinJaBen]

Are we really doing this again? He's the No.3 scoring center in the NHL right now. There are more than three teams, right? A 70-point pace since joining Ottawa. I'd love to hear an argument that puts him outside the top 30 centers in the league.

Aho has been on a greater point pace as a center here, so Duchene would be 2nd line here. Which is frankly all I hope Waddell is considering when deciding who gets #1C money here. Other 30 teams be damned.

 

[Sens1Canes2]

Are we really doing this again? He's the No.3 scoring center in the NHL right now. There are more than three teams, right? A 70-point pace since joining Ottawa. I'd love to hear an argument that puts him outside the top 30 centers in the league.

I watch Duchene, and I watch Aho. I really don’t like Aho at center. Imagine Duchene 1C and Aho on his wing OR on the second line. That’d be some scoring depth.

All this to say, yeah, Duchene is a 1C.