Speculation: Thomas's next contract

[Spektre]

Robert the Thomas is about to turn 22. He's coming off a bad year of 12 points in 33 games. I think it's a fluke year because of injuries but unlike Kyrou this decision seems to be more clear cut. I think he gets a 2-3 year deal in the low 2 million range per season.

I say 2 years @ 2.185 per season.

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[Linkens Mastery]

Same as the Kyrou thread.

I'm kinda expecting Thomas and Kyrou to make a combined 4.5-5mil for the next two seasons. I could see both of them with matching 2.25-2.5milx2year contacts

 

[MissouriMook]

I think if he is still here he’ll get a 1 year “prove it” deal at $2M, but I think there is a reasonable chance that his next contract is going to be with another team. I feel like Army has a big deal in him between now and the entry draft, and I see Thomas going the other way if we’re trading for an upgrade at the center position.

 

[TheDizee]

Package him for Tkachuk

 

[Mike Liut]

Package him for Tkachuk

I wouldn’t

 

[Blueston]

Package him for Tkachuk

Matt can have his old room back.

 

[Xanadude]

Package him for Tkachuk

I'm on board 100%, but I'd imagine at least some of Matt's motivation to come here would be to play with Thomas. They're good family friends IIRC.

I agree with other posters that we have to be shopping Thomas for a win-now type move. If Eichel or someone near that talent level is available it has to be explored, as this core doesn't have time to sit and wait for Thomas to develop anymore.

Either way. I think Thomas gets a 'prove-it' 2 x 2.5 contract and hits the trading block soon (if not already) if either he or the team underwhelm next year.

 

[ChuckLefley]

Thomas is going to get a bridge deal and a chance to prove that his next deal should be big. In my opinion unless you get a can’t miss star, who has no question marks, you don’t deal Thomas.

 

[bluesXwinXtheXcup]

Thomas is going to get a bridge deal and a chance to prove that his next deal should be big. In my opinion unless you get a can’t miss star, who has no question marks, you don’t deal Thomas.

I agree with this.

Let Thomas prove it.

 

[molotce]

I'm on board 100%, but I'd imagine at least some of Matt's motivation to come here would be to play with Thomas. They're good family friends IIRC.

I agree with other posters that we have to be shopping Thomas for a win-now type move. If Eichel or someone near that talent level is available it has to be explored, as this core doesn't have time to sit and wait for Thomas to develop anymore.

Either way. I think Thomas gets a 'prove-it' 2 x 2.5 contract and hits the trading block soon (if not already) if either he or the team underwhelm next year.

Ofc if we are talking Eichel kind of good (who is still young) Thomas shouldn't stay but otherwise I feel like St louis centers are getting a little old (Schenn and O'reilly) and thomas is the guy I see as a center with first line potential right now... Not sure I would deal him as i thnk he is a potentially a huge part of the future's top 6. Nothing is garanteed but I feel I have seen enough to believe in him reaching his potential, as frustrating as last year was. Your other options would be to trade for a young center which is not easy if we are talking above thomas's ceiling, or Kyrou moving back to center from junor years. I also think a 2 year bridge deal could be huge if he steps up for cheap with kyrou in your top 6 next year. They bring great speed and skill (got both in my keeper)

 

[boots legrand]

I think if he is still here he’ll get a 1 year “prove it” deal at $2M, but I think there is a reasonable chance that his next contract is going to be with another team. I feel like Army has a big deal in him between now and the entry draft, and I see Thomas going the other way if we’re trading for an upgrade at the center position.

 

[boots legrand]

no way

 

[boots legrand]

Thomas is going to get a bridge deal and a chance to prove that his next deal should be big. In my opinion unless you get a can’t miss star, who has no question marks, you don’t deal Thomas.

 

[boots legrand]

agree with your sentiments

 

[Brian39]

If I were Thomas I wouldn't even consider a 3 year deal in the low $2Ms and I probably wouldn't accept a 2 year deal for that either. If those were the only two options, I'd probably just sign my qualifying offer and then take my chances on earning a big raise next summer with arbitration rights. Or I would explore the offer sheet market since anything up to $4.1M would only require the new team to give up their 2nd. Offer sheets are rare, but if the Blues aren't willing to budge over $2.2 or $2.3 on their offer, then I could see a team gambling that they could pry him away for a 2nd rounder if they offered $3.5M. That is above his current value, but there is a good chance he exceeds that shortly and paying him that now would be worth getting 3 additional years of RFA control. I'm guessing that we will only keep him below $2.3M on a 1 year deal and will need to cross the $2.5M threshold in order to get 2+ years.

If I were the Blues, I'd be relying heavily on the league's financial data to get the best sense of when the league thinks the HRR deficit gets back to 50/50. There is going to be a cap explosion whenever that happens and I'd be trying my hardest to time the expiration of his bridge deal to the summer before then. Ideally, I'd like to be negotiating long term extensions to any RFAs before the cap skyrockets. My guess is that we are looking at 3 more seasons before that happens. If the NHL's internal models suggest that, then I am pushing hard for a 2 year deal.

 

[Celtic Note]

If I were Thomas I wouldn't even consider a 3 year deal in the low $2Ms and I probably wouldn't accept a 2 year deal for that either. If those were the only two options, I'd probably just sign my qualifying offer and then take my chances on earning a big raise next summer with arbitration rights. Or I would explore the offer sheet market since anything up to $4.1M would only require the new team to give up their 2nd. Offer sheets are rare, but if the Blues aren't willing to budge over $2.2 or $2.3 on their offer, then I could see a team gambling that they could pry him away for a 2nd rounder if they offered $3.5M. That is above his current value, but there is a good chance he exceeds that shortly and paying him that now would be worth getting 3 additional years of RFA control. I'm guessing that we will only keep him below $2.3M on a 1 year deal and will need to cross the $2.5M threshold in order to get 2+ years.

If I were the Blues, I'd be relying heavily on the league's financial data to get the best sense of when the league thinks the HRR deficit gets back to 50/50. There is going to be a cap explosion whenever that happens and I'd be trying my hardest to time the expiration of his bridge deal to the summer before then. Ideally, I'd like to be negotiating long term extensions to any RFAs before the cap skyrockets. My guess is that we are looking at 3 more seasons before that happens. If the NHL's internal models suggest that, then I am pushing hard for a 2 year deal.

And this would be in conflict to what we have been doing the last few years by making sure we are signing players to longer term contracts at their peak value.

 

[GoldenSeal]

Thomas is going to get a bridge deal and a chance to prove that his next deal should be big. In my opinion unless you get a can’t miss star, who has no question marks, you don’t deal Thomas.

This is what I feel in my heart too.

 

[GoldenSeal]

If I were Thomas I wouldn't even consider a 3 year deal in the low $2Ms and I probably wouldn't accept a 2 year deal for that either. If those were the only two options, I'd probably just sign my qualifying offer and then take my chances on earning a big raise next summer with arbitration rights. Or I would explore the offer sheet market since anything up to $4.1M would only require the new team to give up their 2nd. Offer sheets are rare, but if the Blues aren't willing to budge over $2.2 or $2.3 on their offer, then I could see a team gambling that they could pry him away for a 2nd rounder if they offered $3.5M. That is above his current value, but there is a good chance he exceeds that shortly and paying him that now would be worth getting 3 additional years of RFA control. I'm guessing that we will only keep him below $2.3M on a 1 year deal and will need to cross the $2.5M threshold in order to get 2+ years.

If I were the Blues, I'd be relying heavily on the league's financial data to get the best sense of when the league thinks the HRR deficit gets back to 50/50. There is going to be a cap explosion whenever that happens and I'd be trying my hardest to time the expiration of his bridge deal to the summer before then. Ideally, I'd like to be negotiating long term extensions to any RFAs before the cap skyrockets. My guess is that we are looking at 3 more seasons before that happens. If the NHL's internal models suggest that, then I am pushing hard for a 2 year deal.

Honestly any deal made now will be great in the future when the cap goes up. If you’re giving out 4+ year extensions, mows the time to do it, then if you have to move the contract, the Cap has already gone up and it adds value to the deal because of the lower amount of the contract.

 

[Brian39]

Honestly any deal made now will be great in the future when the cap goes up. If you’re giving out 4+ year extensions, mows the time to do it, then if you have to move the contract, the Cap has already gone up and it adds value to the deal because of the lower amount of the contract.

Yeah, but that benefit has to be balanced against the cost it will take to convince a player to sign a 4+ year deal and how much "extra" cap space we can afford to allocate to players in a flat cap environment. Right now, neither Kyrou nor Thomas have proven enough to me that I'd be comfortable with a 4+ year deal at $5M+ and neither of them should be selling their mid/late twenties for anything less than that type of AAV.

I like both players, but they just haven't shown enough for a long term deal to make sense right now. But I hope (and think) that both will show enough over the next 1-2 years to merit a long term deal, so I want to make sure I time their next free agency to hit before the cap explodes. A continued flat cap is only going to squeeze teams and players more as time goes on, so we should be in a similar buyer's market in a year or two.

 

[GoldenSeal]

Yeah, but that benefit has to be balanced against the cost it will take to convince a player to sign a 4+ year deal and how much "extra" cap space we can afford to allocate to players in a flat cap environment. Right now, neither Kyrou nor Thomas have proven enough to me that I'd be comfortable with a 4+ year deal at $5M+ and neither of them should be selling their mid/late twenties for anything less than that type of AAV.

I like both players, but they just haven't shown enough for a long term deal to make sense right now. But I hope (and think) that both will show enough over the next 1-2 years to merit a long term deal, so I want to make sure I time their next free agency to hit before the cap explodes. A continued flat cap is only going to squeeze teams and players more as time goes on, so we should be in a similar buyer's market in a year or two.

Agreed

 

[Stealth JD]

This is as good of a place as any to ask the question. Is Robert Thomas a building-block for this club, bordering on untouchable? Or has some of the luster started to come off after an injury plagued third season?

Yes - the Blues need cost-controlled players with upside to step into a top-6 roll. Yes, they need young skaters capable of becoming part of the next core. Yes they love his talent and pedigree. And after trading away a young center who went on to become a HOF'er in 'Rod the Bod', Blues fans would have to be a little hesitant about pulling the trigger on a deal featuring somebody who has been compared to Patrice Bergeron.

But...there's probably not a more valuable asset on the roster that could be used to improve the team. Taking away actual top-line talent creates a hole that doesn't exist if they're merely trading away a potential, future top-line player, such as Thomas. And if we're looking at the roster from a position of strength that can be used to shore up a weakness, I'd more than comfortable dealing a forward, even a center, knowing what's in the system now and coming through the ranks in the next 2-3 seasons. The fact that he is the last guy signed isn't meaningless, even if there's no chance that a guy like Sanford is valued by the club more than RT. I guess I'm wondering what it would take for everyone to part with Robert Thomas, or if he's simply too important to the franchise to consider parting with at this time?

I see ROR, Schenn, Bozak, Sunny down the middle...and if needed Sanford/Barby/Joshua for 4C duties....with Alexandrov coming quickly and Bolduc also in the C-mix amongst the Blues top-end prospects, and think of all the possibilities for trade targets that would command RT as part of the return package. While that may have once seemed unfathomable; I'm not so sure the Blues' couldn't suitably replace him easier than they could, say, a top-4 LHD.

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

This is as good of a place as any to ask the question. Is Robert Thomas a building-block for this club, bordering on untouchable? Or has some of the luster started to come off after an injury plagued third season?

Yes - the Blues need cost-controlled players with upside to step into a top-6 roll. Yes, they need young skaters capable of becoming part of the next core. Yes they love his talent and pedigree. And after trading away a young center who went on to become a HOF'er in 'Rod the Bod', Blues fans would have to be a little hesitant about pulling the trigger on a deal featuring somebody who has been compared to Patrice Bergeron.

But...there's probably not a more valuable asset on the roster that could be used to improve the team. Taking away actual top-line talent creates a hole that doesn't exist if they're merely trading away a potential, future top-line player, such as Thomas. And if we're looking at the roster from a position of strength that can be used to shore up a weakness, I'd more than comfortable dealing a forward, even a center, knowing what's in the system now and coming through the ranks in the next 2-3 seasons. The fact that he is the last guy signed isn't meaningless, even if there's no chance that a guy like Sanford is valued by the club more than RT. I guess I'm wondering what it would take for everyone to part with Robert Thomas, or if he's simply too important to the franchise to consider parting with at this time?

I see ROR, Schenn, Bozak, Sunny down the middle...and if needed Sanford/Barby/Joshua for 4C duties....with Alexandrov coming quickly and Bolduc also in the C-mix amongst the Blues top-end prospects, and think of all the possibilities for trade targets that would command RT as part of the return package. While that may have once seemed unfathomable; I'm not so sure the Blues' couldn't suitably replace him easier than they could, say, a top-4 LHD.

If we’re moving any center in the next couple years, I’d much rather get out of the back end of Schenn’s deal. Bring back ROR and run him, Thomas, and Alexandrov in the top 9.

Ideally, we’d have Buchnevich, Kyrou, Kostin, Perron, Bolduc, Neighbours, and hopefully someone like Matthew as our winger group a few years from now.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

This is as good of a place as any to ask the question. Is Robert Thomas a building-block for this club, bordering on untouchable? Or has some of the luster started to come off after an injury plagued third season?

Yes - the Blues need cost-controlled players with upside to step into a top-6 roll. Yes, they need young skaters capable of becoming part of the next core. Yes they love his talent and pedigree. And after trading away a young center who went on to become a HOF'er in 'Rod the Bod', Blues fans would have to be a little hesitant about pulling the trigger on a deal featuring somebody who has been compared to Patrice Bergeron.

But...there's probably not a more valuable asset on the roster that could be used to improve the team. Taking away actual top-line talent creates a hole that doesn't exist if they're merely trading away a potential, future top-line player, such as Thomas. And if we're looking at the roster from a position of strength that can be used to shore up a weakness, I'd more than comfortable dealing a forward, even a center, knowing what's in the system now and coming through the ranks in the next 2-3 seasons. The fact that he is the last guy signed isn't meaningless, even if there's no chance that a guy like Sanford is valued by the club more than RT. I guess I'm wondering what it would take for everyone to part with Robert Thomas, or if he's simply too important to the franchise to consider parting with at this time?

I see ROR, Schenn, Bozak, Sunny down the middle...and if needed Sanford/Barby/Joshua for 4C duties....with Alexandrov coming quickly and Bolduc also in the C-mix amongst the Blues top-end prospects, and think of all the possibilities for trade targets that would command RT as part of the return package. While that may have once seemed unfathomable; I'm not so sure the Blues' couldn't suitably replace him easier than they could, say, a top-4 LHD.

It’s a great question. I think some of the enthusiasm for his ceiling has worn off. Armstrong hasn’t been shy about spending young players as assets when he doubts their ceiling. I don’t believe Thomas has been in any serious rumors as being available. But I believe this season is very important for him.

Supposedly his off-season preparation wasn’t as great as hoped for last year. If it’s just a young guy maturing a bit, we should see a more impactful player this season. If he fails to take another step forward, I could see him moved in a package.

 

[Blueston]

This is as good of a place as any to ask the question. Is Robert Thomas a building-block for this club, bordering on untouchable? Or has some of the luster started to come off after an injury plagued third season?

Yes - the Blues need cost-controlled players with upside to step into a top-6 roll. Yes, they need young skaters capable of becoming part of the next core. Yes they love his talent and pedigree. And after trading away a young center who went on to become a HOF'er in 'Rod the Bod', Blues fans would have to be a little hesitant about pulling the trigger on a deal featuring somebody who has been compared to Patrice Bergeron.

But...there's probably not a more valuable asset on the roster that could be used to improve the team. Taking away actual top-line talent creates a hole that doesn't exist if they're merely trading away a potential, future top-line player, such as Thomas. And if we're looking at the roster from a position of strength that can be used to shore up a weakness, I'd more than comfortable dealing a forward, even a center, knowing what's in the system now and coming through the ranks in the next 2-3 seasons. The fact that he is the last guy signed isn't meaningless, even if there's no chance that a guy like Sanford is valued by the club more than RT. I guess I'm wondering what it would take for everyone to part with Robert Thomas, or if he's simply too important to the franchise to consider parting with at this time?

I see ROR, Schenn, Bozak, Sunny down the middle...and if needed Sanford/Barby/Joshua for 4C duties....with Alexandrov coming quickly and Bolduc also in the C-mix amongst the Blues top-end prospects, and think of all the possibilities for trade targets that would command RT as part of the return package. While that may have once seemed unfathomable; I'm not so sure the Blues' couldn't suitably replace him easier than they could, say, a top-4 LHD.

For reasons you mention, I think Thomas is available for similar aged D who could slot into top 4.

 

[Brian39]

This is as good of a place as any to ask the question. Is Robert Thomas a building-block for this club, bordering on untouchable? Or has some of the luster started to come off after an injury plagued third season?

Yes - the Blues need cost-controlled players with upside to step into a top-6 roll. Yes, they need young skaters capable of becoming part of the next core. Yes they love his talent and pedigree. And after trading away a young center who went on to become a HOF'er in 'Rod the Bod', Blues fans would have to be a little hesitant about pulling the trigger on a deal featuring somebody who has been compared to Patrice Bergeron.

But...there's probably not a more valuable asset on the roster that could be used to improve the team. Taking away actual top-line talent creates a hole that doesn't exist if they're merely trading away a potential, future top-line player, such as Thomas. And if we're looking at the roster from a position of strength that can be used to shore up a weakness, I'd more than comfortable dealing a forward, even a center, knowing what's in the system now and coming through the ranks in the next 2-3 seasons. The fact that he is the last guy signed isn't meaningless, even if there's no chance that a guy like Sanford is valued by the club more than RT. I guess I'm wondering what it would take for everyone to part with Robert Thomas, or if he's simply too important to the franchise to consider parting with at this time?

I see ROR, Schenn, Bozak, Sunny down the middle...and if needed Sanford/Barby/Joshua for 4C duties....with Alexandrov coming quickly and Bolduc also in the C-mix amongst the Blues top-end prospects, and think of all the possibilities for trade targets that would command RT as part of the return package. While that may have once seemed unfathomable; I'm not so sure the Blues' couldn't suitably replace him easier than they could, say, a top-4 LHD.

I don't think Thomas is likely to be the "roster piece" going back in a trade where we give up a roster piece plus futures for a guy. I get what you're saying about opening up a hole by trading other guys, but the salary cap is a real consideration. Thomas is a cost-controlled asset and at this point we are on a strict "dollar out for every dollar in" situation. How many legit top 4 LHD are available that cost less than $3M against the cap? If they cost much more than that, suddenly moving Thomas as the quality roster piece to get it done isn't an option. It needs to be Thomas plus another roster player just to make the money work. I don't think he is untouchable, but I think we would be getting back another team's previously untouchable young guy in return. Or he could be part of a blockbuster that likely won't happen mid-season.

I still think he is very much in the medium and long term plans. The center group you list is strong right now, but ROR and Sunny are UFAs in 2 years. Schenn will start declining in the not-so-distant future. Bozak is 35 and is already a bottom 6 option instead of a middle 6 option. Thomas has had some bumps in his development trajectory, but the organization doesn't need him to really actualize until 2022 or 2023. Being a supporting cast member the next 2 years and then being a core guy by 2023 lines up perfectly with the time our center group faces uncertainty. On what should be a value contract, he brings a lot of value to this group if he is simply in between his last season and the one before. I expect him to be the 3rd best center on the Blues this year offensively and likely the 3rd best all around center on this team. And I think your 3rd best center is often as important as your 4th best winger.

I don't see him as untouchable, but I think we'd have to view a trade as a clear win in order to send him the other way.