Blue Jays Discussion: The "We could use the Man in White after today" Edition
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Daisy Jane
everything is gonna be okay!
- Jul 2, 2009
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TF97
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I wouldnt move TT. We dont have a leadoff hitter but he is best option and no not revere, he has been basically useless. TT issue is timing more than anything and I think he will be okay
The Nemesis
Semper Tyrannus
that's a hilariously facetious argument. Saying batting average is a dumb stat to use on its own is in no way "hating" .300 guys. Because guess what, those guys you named who hit .300 were all great hitters and hit showed in a variety of other ways. The fact that hitting .300 allows for Ben Revere to be lumped in with them in some statistical realm shows where the holes in averages as a stat are.
Also we've explained the problems with batting average. It's an incomplete picture of what it purports to measure. It's supposed to be (and is used as by those that don't know any better) a measure of a player's overall hitting talent. But the fact that it doesn't include walks (for a completely ridiculous and largely arbitrary reason dreamed up 100+ years ago by a guy who barely knew what baseball was) cripples it because it shows that being a Ben Revere type who hacks and hacks and hacks and makes a lot of contact to get on base with slap singles can look as good or better than a very patient hitter who doesn't get as many cheap singles but generates far useful hits and takes a bunch of walks to get on base at a higher clip.
Batting average has its uses. In concert with other offensive measures to paint a complete picture. But looking at Ben Revere and seeing speed and a .300 average gets you in trouble because it ignores the fact that with his .325 OBP for this year and last, he'd be the 5th worst guy on the Blue Jays at getting on base. Only better than Smoak, Goins, Navarro, and Pillar. All that speed is useless if he doesn't get on base. And for all that gaudy .300 average, it turns out he's pretty bad at it (made worse when light-hit singles, which are basically the same for these purposes as walks, are like 90% of what he does)
This is not really an either/or type statement. your .240 hitters with 25 homers can have close to 30 doubles too. Hell, Bautista has, since his 2010 breakout, seasons of 35, 24, 14 (he was hurt), 24 (he was hurt, but less so), 27, and 22 (up to and including today) doubles. AND he provides you with 30+ HRs. I'll take a guy with a bunch of HRs, a bunch of doubles, a lot of walks and a higher OBP/other offensive measures.
and with the other hitters you can get just as many extra base hits AND a lot of homers and still score a bunch of runs. For what it's worth, there's a stronger correlation between a team's ability to score runs and its team on-base % than there is between its run-scoring ability and its batting average.
and if your contact hitters slump you're not scoring because you're getting fewer hits for less power (which has a lower chance of generating runs). It's the same thing.
Bomber0104
Registered User
From Stats01 last thread:
I don't think fine-tuning a batting order based on short-term rolling averages gives you the best chance at producing runs.
If we had Devon Travis back, yes I would suggest placing him leadoff, but then followed up with Tulo, Donny, and Jose....
You can't honestly expect Tulo to hit like this much longer, and that's what a good manager bets on..
The future.
Not the past.
I don't think fine-tuning a batting order based on short-term rolling averages gives you the best chance at producing runs.
If we had Devon Travis back, yes I would suggest placing him leadoff, but then followed up with Tulo, Donny, and Jose....
You can't honestly expect Tulo to hit like this much longer, and that's what a good manager bets on..
The future.
Not the past.
Swervin81
Leaf fan | YYZ -> SEA
This. How many times do I have to ****ing repeat it? .244 BABIP simply won't continue, especially with his batted ball splits of 25% liners, 40% grounders, 35% fly balls. He's hitting the ball well, just getting rotten luck with finding gloves. His BB rate is back up, K rate slightly down, and he's seeing lots of pitches, so he hasn't been hacking away.
He's very due to explode with that BABIP shooting back up to the mean.
Suntouchable13
Registered User
Swervin81
Leaf fan | YYZ -> SEA
Exactly. Hell, I hope that happens. Most of Cola's enormous BABIP is fed by soft liners. Just imagine if for every soft liner single you take away from Cola, you get a hard liner double from Tulo (ocassional single and rare triple too). That **** adds up over time.
Not how it works, sadly.
Tulo isn't really struggling when you look closer at the numbers. On the other hand, Revere is struggling Doesn't make sense to put Revere at leadoff now.
King Mapes
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Suntouchable13
Registered User
Eyedea
The Legend Continues
Convenient that Ryno thinks we hate batting average. Why would we hate Olerud, Alomar, and Molitor? Those were 3 of the best hitters in the league in 1993. There is however a lot more to their success than hitting over .300.
Bomber0104
Registered User
It's a longshot but at this point our September saviours are Travis at leadoff and Stroman back in the rotation.
King Mapes
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The Nemesis
Semper Tyrannus
Earlier I went back to look at all time Jays ineptitude in terms of run creation so I could contextualize Ben Revere's horri-awful 32 wRC+ mark with the Jays and I was surprised to notice that John Olerud's 1993 is tied for the franchise' 2nd best wRC+ season. I knew he was one of the best, but I never really pictured him as far-and-away the best ahead of Alomar, Molitor, etc.
the top 10 seasons in Jays history in terms of runs created vs that year's league average are:
Bautista (2011)
Alomar (1993)
Delgado (2000)
Bautista (2010)
Bautista (2014)
McGriff (1990)
McGriff (1989)
McGriff (1988)
Donaldson (2015 to date)
that really helps contextualize just how ridiculously amazing Donaldson has been this year. He's in the top 10 and he's not even done yet. He's probably in striking distance of the top 5 if he keeps it up. It also shows that considering Donaldson is in the MVP fight this year, just how blatantly bad it was that Delgado got jobbed in 2000 in favor of Giambi
the top 10 seasons in Jays history in terms of runs created vs that year's league average are:
Bautista (2011)
Alomar (1993)
Delgado (2000)
Bautista (2010)
Bautista (2014)
McGriff (1990)
McGriff (1989)
McGriff (1988)
Donaldson (2015 to date)
that really helps contextualize just how ridiculously amazing Donaldson has been this year. He's in the top 10 and he's not even done yet. He's probably in striking distance of the top 5 if he keeps it up. It also shows that considering Donaldson is in the MVP fight this year, just how blatantly bad it was that Delgado got jobbed in 2000 in favor of Giambi
The Nemesis
Semper Tyrannus
Not sure if it was mentioned before, but how did Seattle score 10 runs....and lose to Boston who scored 22?!?!
The leagues best offense by a mile hasn't crossed 13 runs this season
Red Sox also scored like 15 last night. Which begs the question of Why Seattle couldn't suck like that when the Jays were there.
Eyedea
The Legend Continues
Just like Bautista getting jobbed in 2011. Actually it's kind of amazing how Molitor finished 2nd in 1993 ahead of Olerud. Having Olerud not win the MVP that year was criminal (but Griffey placing 5th is even crazier looking back at the numbers).
Bomber0104
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