The "Video Scouting Era" failure

[TehDoak]

In case anyone is really looking for the "Reason" behind the rebuild, it really is simple. The gutting of the scouting department in 2004 up until Pegula's purchase in 2011.

I'll let the carnage speak for itself:

2011 Entry
Draft Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From GP G A Pts PIM
2011 Entry 16 1 Joel Armia F Assat Pori [SM-liiga] 1 0 0 0 0
2011 Entry 77 3 Daniel Catenacci C Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds [OHL]
2011 Entry 107 4 Colin Jacobs C Seattle Thunderbirds [WHL]
2011 Entry 137 5 Alex Lepkowski D Barrie Colts [OHL]
2011 Entry 167 6 Nathan Lieuwen G Kootenay Ice [WHL] 7 0 0 0 0
2011 Entry 197 7 Brad Navin F Waupaca H.S. (Wisc.)

2010 Entry
Draft Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From GP G A Pts PIM
2010 Entry 23 1 Mark Pysyk D Edmonton Oil Kings [WHL] 67 3 10 13 16
2010 Entry 68 3 Jerome Leduc D Rouyn-Noranda Huskies [QMJHL]
2010 Entry 75 3 Kevin Sundher C Chilliwack Bruins [WHL]
2010 Entry 83 3 Matt Mackenzie D Calgary Hitmen [WHL]
2010 Entry 98 4 Steven Shipley C Owen Sound Attack [OHL]
2010 Entry 143 5 Gregg Sutch R Mississauga St. Michael's Majors [OHL]
2010 Entry 173 6 Cedrick Henley L Val d'Or Foreurs [QMJHL]
2010 Entry 203 7 Christian Isackson F St. Thomas H.S. [Minn.]
2010 Entry 208 7 Riley Boychuk L Portland Winterhawks [WHL]

2009 Entry
Draft Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From GP G A Pts PIM
2009 Entry 13 1 Zack Kassian R Peterborough Petes [OHL] 187 30 31 61 265
2009 Entry 66 3 Brayden McNabb D Kootenay Ice [WHL] 86 1 23 24 56
2009 Entry 104 4 Marcus Foligno L Sudbury Wolves [OHL] 165 24 37 61 175
2009 Entry 134 5 Mark Adams D Malden Catholic H.S. (Mass.)
2009 Entry 164 6 Connor Knapp G Miami University (Ohio) [CCHA] 2 0 1 1 0
2009 Entry 194 7 Maxime Legault R Shawinigan Cataractes [QMJHL]

2008 Entry
Draft Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From GP G A Pts PIM
2008 Entry 12 1 Tyler Myers D Kelowna Rockets [WHL] 367 45 108 153 258
2008 Entry 26 1 Tyler Ennis C Medicine Hat Tigers [WHL] 322 82 115 197 143
2008 Entry 44 2 Luke Adam C St. John's Fog Devils [QMJHL] 87 15 11 26 32
2008 Entry 81 3 Corey Fienhage D Eastview H.S. (Minn.)
2008 Entry 101 4 Justin Jokinen R Cloquet H.S. (Minn.)
2008 Entry 104 4 Jordon Southorn D Prince Edward Island Rocket [QMJHL]
2008 Entry 134 5 Jacob Lagace L Chicoutimi Sagueneens [QMJHL]
2008 Entry 164 6 Nick Crawford D Saginaw Spirit [OHL]

2007 Entry
Draft Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From GP G A Pts PIM
2007 Entry 31 2 T.J. Brennan D St. John's Fog Devils [QMJHL] 40 4 7 11 14
2007 Entry 59 2 Drew Schiestel D Mississauga IceDogs [OHL]
2007 Entry 89 3 Corey Tropp R Sioux Falls Stampede [USHL] 127 6 18 24 104
2007 Entry 139 5 Bradley Eidsness G Okotoks Oilers [AJHL]
2007 Entry 147 5 Jean-Simon Allard C St. John's Fog Devils [QMJHL]
2007 Entry 179 6 Paul Byron C Gatineau Olympiques [QMJHL] 136 17 29 46 41
2007 Entry 187 7 Nick Eno G Green Mountain [EJHL]
2007 Entry 209 7 Drew Mackenzie D Taft H.S. (Conn.)

2006 Entry
Draft Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From GP G A Pts PIM
2006 Entry 24 1 Dennis Persson D Vasteras IK [Swe-1]
2006 Entry 46 2 Jhonas Enroth G Sodertalje SK [SEL] 119 0 0 0 2
2006 Entry 57 2 Mike Weber D Windsor Spitfires [OHL] 286 8 39 47 358
2006 Entry 117 4 Felix Schutz C Saint John Sea Dogs [QMJHL]
2006 Entry 147 5 Alex Biega D Salisbury School (Conn. H.S.)
2006 Entry 207 7 Benjamin Breault C Baie-Comeau Drakkar [QMJHL]

2005 Entry
Draft Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From GP G A Pts PIM
2005 Entry 13 1 Marek Zagrapan C Chicoutimi Sagueneens [QMJHL]
2005 Entry 48 2 Philipp Gogulla L Cologne Sharks [DEL]
2005 Entry 87 3 Marc-Andre Gragnani D Prince Edward Island Rocket [QMJHL] 74 3 15 18 34
2005 Entry 96 4 Chris Butler D Sioux City Musketeers [USHL] 375 12 69 81 171
2005 Entry 142 5 Nathan Gerbe C U.S. Junior National Team [Intl] 319 50 71 121 144
2005 Entry 182 6 Adam Dennis G London Knights [OHL]
2005 Entry 191 6 Vyacheslav Buravchikov D Krylia-2 (Russia)
2005 Entry 208 7 Matt Generous D New England Jr. Falcons (EJHL)
2005 Entry 227 7 Andrew Orpik D Thayer Academy (Mass.)

Thats 7 drafts (2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011) primarily scouted via video.

I'm including 2011 because Pegula took ownership in Jan 2011 and the majority of scouting had already been done for the 2011 draft.

From those SEVEN drafts:

Tyler Myers
Tyler Ennis
Marcus Foligino
Chris Butler
Nathan Gerbe
Mike Weber
Jhonas Enroth
Zach Kassian
Corey Tropp
Paul Byron
Joel Armia

That's one top pairing d-man, one top 6 forwards, and 1 mid-level starting goalie and a bunch of bottom 6 forwards/depth d-men to show for SEVEN drafts. Armia MAYBE adds a 2nd top 6 forward to that group. But that's it.

Compare that to 2012, 2013, 2014:

2012:

Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From GP G A Pts PIM
2014 Entry 2 1 Sam Reinhart C Kootenay Ice [WHL] 9 0 1 1 2
2014 Entry 31 2 Brendan Lemieux L Barrie Colts [OHL]
2014 Entry 44 2 Eric Cornel C Peterborough Petes [OHL]
2014 Entry 49 2 Vaclav Karabacek R Gatineau Olympiques [QMJHL]
2014 Entry 61 3 Jonas Johansson G Brynas (Sweden Jrs.)
2014 Entry 74 3 Brycen Martin D Swift Current Broncos [WHL]
2014 Entry 121 5 Max Willman L Williston-Northampton (Mass. H.S.)
2014 Entry 151 6 Christopher Brown F Cranbrook Kingston (Mich. H.S.)
2014 Entry 181 7 Victor Olofsson F MODO (Sweden Jrs.)

2013 Entry
Draft Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From GP G A Pts PIM
2013 Entry 8 1 Rasmus Ristolainen D TPS Turku [SM-liiga] 86 6 7 13 24
2013 Entry 16 1 Nikita Zadorov D London Knights [OHL] 46 3 10 13 41
2013 Entry 35 2 J.T. Compher L U.S. National Development Team [USHL]
2013 Entry 38 2 Connor Hurley C Edina (Minn. H.S.)
2013 Entry 52 2 Justin Bailey R Kitchener Rangers [OHL]
2013 Entry 69 3 Nick Baptiste R Sudbury Wolves [OHL]
2013 Entry 129 5 Cal Petersen G Waterloo Black Hawks [USHL]
2013 Entry 130 5 Gustav Possler R Modo Jrs. (Sweden)
2013 Entry 143 5 Anthony Florentino D South Kent (Conn. H.S.)
2013 Entry 159 6 Sean Malone C U.S. National Development Team [USHL]
2013 Entry 189 7 Eric Locke C Saginaw Spirit [OHL]

2012 Entry
Draft Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From GP G A Pts PIM
2012 Entry 12 1 Mikhail Grigorenko C Quebec Remparts [QMJHL] 55 4 6 10 2
2012 Entry 14 1 Zemgus Girgensons C Dubuque Fighting Saints [USHL] 125 22 26 48 35
2012 Entry 44 2 Jake McCabe D U. of Wisconsin [WCHA] 7 0 1 1 15
2012 Entry 73 3 Justin Kea C Saginaw Spirit [OHL]
2012 Entry 133 5 Logan Nelson C Victoria Royals [WHL]
2012 Entry 163 6 Linus Ullmark G MODO Jrs. [Sweden]
2012 Entry 193 7 Brady Austin D Belleville Bulls [OHL]
2012 Entry 204 7 Judd Peterson R Duluth Marshall [Minn. H.S.]

While it is too early to really compare, its possible we'll see more NHL forwards out of the last 3 drafts than the last 7 combined. And yes, we've had more draft picks to work with, etc, but still, the rate of conversion already appears to be at least double it was under video scouting.

Click to read more...

 

[stokes84]

You left Pysyk out, so that makes 8. And they still use video scouting heavily. In 2010 and 2011 they didn't have 2nd round picks, so that hurts.

Also, 2012 and 2013 were still under Devine and Regier, so they were relying on the same methods that they had been using since 2008.

 

[StlSwedes]

The 'Pegula' Effect



Need to see how other teams match up to understand the big picture. But I think getting at least 2 NHL players from each draft should be the goal, getting 7-8 from 7 drafts is not something you can build a franchise around.

 

[TehDoak]

You left Pysyk out, so that makes 8. And they still use video scouting heavily. In 2010 and 2011 they didn't have 2nd round picks, so that hurts.

Also, 2012 and 2013 were still under Devine and Regier, so they were relying on the same methods that they had been using since 2008.

To be fair, Pysyk IS playing in the AHL...

But, at this point I'd consider him a depth guy as well.

ALL teams use video scouting...in addendum to the boots on the ground with scouts attending games.

The Golisano/Quinn era slashed the hockey ops budget, fired scouts, and forced the team to rely heavily of video from 3rd parties rather than pay scouts to travel, watch players in person, etc.

The very first thing Pegula did when taking over ownership was restore the scouting department. And yes, Devine and Regier were running the drafts, they were doing so with much more resources than they ever had under Golisano.

 

[Djp]

This is a stretch....sure the video scouting hurt them but things started to change in 2008.

Anything from 4th round or later you don't count on to develop into a hockey player outside of someone who does a few call ups or a few seasons as a 6-7th Dman or 3rd/4th liner.

Evaluate rounds 1-3 only...Ben 3rd rounds are not likely to be much.

2005-2007 were poor and it hurt buffalo today because these players now would be around 25-27 at the start of the season.

2008-2010 Myers, Ennis, kassian, and Pysyk in the 1st. They hit on a few other pics.

2010 and 2011 they had no 2nds. They picked Armia in 2011.

Do a comparison with other teams in those drafts. For example if buffalo got the only dud when they drafted but teams hit tight after their pick thorn you can fault scouting and how they drafted. If the 5 after that pick were duds then you could blame more on the quality of the draft.

 

[sabrebuild]

This is a stretch....sure the video scouting hurt them but things started to change in 2008.

Anything from 4th round or later you don't count on to develop into a hockey player outside of someone who does a few call ups or a few seasons as a 6-7th Dman or 3rd/4th liner.

Evaluate rounds 1-3 only...Ben 3rd rounds are not likely to be much.

2005-2007 were poor and it hurt buffalo today because these players now would be around 25-27 at the start of the season.

2008-2010 Myers, Ennis, kassian, and Pysyk in the 1st. They hit on a few other pics.

2010 and 2011 they had no 2nds. They picked Armia in 2011.

Do a comparison with other teams in those drafts. For example if buffalo got the only dud when they drafted but teams hit tight after their pick thorn you can fault scouting and how they drafted. If the 5 after that pick were duds then you could blame more on the quality of the draft.

Agreed. Misses in the first round really hurt, but after that its pretty tough to consistently hit. Considering how high they drafted for most of that stretch you can't complain too much. I think compared to other teams I read the Sabres had a pretty high nhl games played rate.

Zagrapan is the one that really hurts. 13 pick I think and was a complete miss. Lot of good options behind him too. Maybe even more depressing, LA took Kopitar at 11. If he drops two spots and Regier takes him, which seems possible since Regier wasn't adverse to euros, we probably never have a tank thought in our heads.

Vanek Kopitar Pominville
Stafford Roy Afinogenov
Kotalik Connolly MacArthur
Kaleta Gaustad Paille

That's a pretty good offense. Some guys would be to old by now or hurt, but Circa 2009-10 that team is super legit.

 

[TehDoak]

This is a stretch....sure the video scouting hurt them but things started to change in 2008.

Anything from 4th round or later you don't count on to develop into a hockey player outside of someone who does a few call ups or a few seasons as a 6-7th Dman or 3rd/4th liner.

Evaluate rounds 1-3 only...Ben 3rd rounds are not likely to be much.

2005-2007 were poor and it hurt buffalo today because these players now would be around 25-27 at the start of the season.

2008-2010 Myers, Ennis, kassian, and Pysyk in the 1st. They hit on a few other pics.

2010 and 2011 they had no 2nds. They picked Armia in 2011.

Do a comparison with other teams in those drafts. For example if buffalo got the only dud when they drafted but teams hit tight after their pick thorn you can fault scouting and how they drafted. If the 5 after that pick were duds then you could blame more on the quality of the draft.

I'll agree that late round picks certainly have lower conversion rates.

And yes, drafts evaluated one at a time, pick by pick is the proper way to do things.

But, when you take a step back and look at the severe lack of any real core players being produced outside of Myers and Ennis over a long (7 drafts!) time frame, you really have a systemic issue with your scouting and drafting.

 

[Husko]

It's really all about 05-07. A combo of trading away picks and busting hard on our top picks is what landed us where we were the past few years. People like to hate on the Rochester core, and often it's deserving, but another big element is that there was never a second wave behind them, because the likes of Person and Zagrapan never panned out at all

 

[jBuds]

I don't think this metric is valuable without proof of in person scouting success from other teams. The draft is a crapshoot and I'd guess we fall right in line with most other organizations. Guys we've drafted are NHLers - it's just that the group we deemed "core" failed to get te job done as a collective unit and was subsequently gutted.