The travesty that is Justin Schultz on the PP

[McJadeddog]

There has been a lot of talk about how our PP has really suffered by having Schultz on it, and how he is essentially useless on the PP. I would argue that he is pretty useless all around, and not just on the PP, but that is a different thread altogether. So I figured I'd look up some stats and see if this opinion is warranted or not.

I looked at the past 3 NHL regular seasons for all Dmen that have played 200+ mins of PP time in total over the 3 seasons. This works out to a minimum of 48 seconds a game of PP time (if the player played all games). I figured 48+ seconds/game was a good mark as it would allow even guys who are 2nd PP unit players into the analysis. The total number of players that meet this criteria is 95.

Here are what the cold, hard numbers say.

- 24th highest in the group for avg PP toi/game during this time period (3.05)
- DEAD LAST in the group for G/60 with 0.12/60
- 45th in the group for A/60 with 2.84/60
- 75th in the group for P/60 with 2.96/60

So Schultz is getting a pretty good push on the PP, being in the top-30 for ice time over the past 3 years, but is *dramatically* under performing. In short, he is a disaster on the PP.

Just for reference, here are Sekera's numbers (albeit with 3 different teams) over that same time period.
- 53rd highest in the group for avg PP toi/game during this time period (2.21)
- 39th in the group for G/60 with 0.93/60
- 41st in the group for A/60 with 2.93/60
- 39th in the group for P/60 with 3.86/60

So Sekera has outperformed Shultz by a wide margin, but yet still isn't used more than Schultz. Sekera is 2nd in avg PP TOI, while Schultz is first.

In fact for this year, Schultz is effectively last on the Oilers in P/60 on the PP with 2.73. Gryba and Fayne don't have any points, but have each played less than 2 mins on the PP in total. Klefbom has 3.22/60, Sekera has 3.71. Davidson and Nurse both have much higher (6.84 and 9, respectively) but have played less than 10 mins each on the PP so far.

Schultz is a travesty on the PP, and should be the 3rd, or potentially even 5th, option on the team. Sekera and Klefbom are clearly better choices, and both Davidson and Nurse deserve longer looks.

Click to read more...

 

[Mr Positive]

I think he's on there just for the hope that he will crack open and gain confidence. This is a new year with a better team and a better coach so there is reason to believe that previous bad stats should be taken with a grain of salt.

Having said that, I am a Schultz sympathizer who is getting fed up with him. He is out of excuses. He came back from injury and was cold after that, which I forgave, but the injury shouldn't be a factor anymore.

I would not be surprised if McLellan stayed with him a bit longer. A good version of Schultz is exactly what we need. If we give up on that project we will be trying either a very young guy like Nurse there, or a risky option like Nikitin, or start using forwards there like we used to do.

I'm okay with whatever McLellan decides to do. I also don't think that the best PP possible is just putting the biggest names together.

 

[oStealthKiller*]

He definitely isn't helping. He fooled me in the summer, I thought he was going to break out this year. I give him another 7-10 games with Tm to see if he can unlock him, but after that if he still is horrid, which I suspect, flush him. Give that valuable time to someone who will be developed(nurse) or help the team win(sekera).

 

[Ragss]

He just lost his game entirely. Remember in the lockout year how he played in the AHL? That player is long gone.

 

[Beerfish]

Yeah the pp, pk and the national debt is all because of schultz. It has nothing to do with the other 9 guys out there and nothing to do with coaching. Get him off the pp and we will undoubtably be top 3 in the league.

Our pp% with him in the lineup and without (when he was injured) is pretty close to the same.

 

[Da McBomb]

If Schultz isn't providing any offence for this team or contributing on the PP.. then what use, really, does he have on this team?

 

[Stoneman89]

Isn't there already a specific thread just started on the issues of the PP already? Mods, I think this would be better served to merge with that one, so Justin can be duly and rightfully beaten up by more combatants.

 

[Mc5RingsAndABeer]

I said this in the PGT: I think he has utility on the PP as a forward, at least until the other injured guys come back. I definitely would not use him for the point shot. It isn't good enough to work in the NHL.

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

it seems to me the problem with schultz is he doesn't have a good enough shot to be able to fire it from the point.....none of our D really do. Maybe Davidson and Klefbom but I'd say they aren't proven.

So Schultz is probably ****ed either way. IF he jumps into the play to score he needs the forwards to maintain possession and not **** up generating the rebound or passing to him.....which they will do.....and then Schultz gets blamed for the odd man rush. So he is stuck at the point where he is useless.

The fact that he hasn't developed the ability to gain the zone is pretty awful. That should be his one skill considering his skating. He generates nothing at all with his skating aside from opening a lane for a predictable pass. I guess that's ok for maintaining possession....on a powerplay but that is all he is good for.

He has been better at defending, IMO, he'll even win an occasional board battle. But I'd say he is a decent 7th defender right now.....which is brutal considering his pedigree and fanfare and what his price tag is and is likely to be. Still he has earned himself a demotion from nhl regular to depth player....i'd keep him if he can fill that role and take a pay cut to 2million-ish and work on generating offense from the blueline.

That or move him to wing.

 

[Mr Positive]

Isn't there already a specific thread just started on the issues of the PP already? Mods, I think this would be better served to merge with that one, so Justin can be duly and rightfully beaten up by more combatants.

imo this is a much bigger issue than just some line combos thread. It's about a years long project that is going very sour and may be reaching its end. It is more of a Schultz thread than a Schultz on the PP thread, but it's pertinent since Schultz should be our powerplay specialist. If he can't work the pp worth a damn it does put his whole usefulness into question.

 

[Mc5RingsAndABeer]

He has been better at defending, IMO, he'll even win an occasional board battle. But I'd say he is a decent 7th defender right now.....which is brutal considering his pedigree and fanfare and what his price tag is and is likely to be. Still he has earned himself a demotion from nhl regular to depth player....i'd keep him if he can fill that role and take a pay cut to 2million-ish and work on generating offense from the blueline.

That or move him to wing.

There is nothing saying that a 7th defender can't win a Norris, though

 

[rasarhdasd]

For a guy that was so highly touted as an offensive defensemen, I'm not sure his offense is better than Klefbom/Petry/Nurse's.

Does he take the puck away in the defensive zone and pass our skate it out effectively? No, it'd be hard to argue he does.

Is he good in the offensive zone? Kind of, good at finding the random space and jumping into it, or good on the rush if someone else has it.

Which comes back to playing on the powerplay, and he's just not good on the powerplay. Put Klefbom/Davidson/Sekera/Nurse in the minutes he got and I'd be amazed if they couldn't put up similar numbers.

Klefobm/Sekera are way better at shooting from the point and I really want Davidson to get another look, his shot looks very good.

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

There is nothing saying that a 7th defender can't win a Norris, though

Indeed.

I hate schultz and like gryba but it would make more sense to keep schultz if you can sign him for under 3.

Of course a decent agent might be able to get him that as an FA.

 

[Aerchon]

The position Schultz had success from was so low in the zone that it's easy to defend against and if you miss or are blocked it's coming back hard into our own zone.

From his "area" he can't ever get back to either point to keep the zone either.

In short what has worked for him to date just doesn't in the nhl.

 

[Aceboogie]

Schultz is horrible. There is no other way to put it. This guy sucks on the PP, sucks at offense and is putrid at defense. He offers almost nothing besides ok skating.

 

[Draw Me a McElephant]

Meanwhile Davidson has scored on every shot he has taken on the PP all year.

 

[Spawn]

The position Schultz had success from was so low in the zone that it's easy to defend against and if you miss or are blocked it's coming back hard into our own zone.

From his "area" he can't ever get back to either point to keep the zone either.

In short what has worked for him to date just doesn't in the nhl.

The thing is, it did work for him in the NHL at one point. Schultz in his rookie year was one of the absolute best I've seen at finding the soft spot in the offensive zone and having all the time in the world to unleash one of his pin point accurate wrist shots. He was on pace for nearly 50 points in that lockout shortened year.

Schultz (much like Yakupov to be honest) has seen an inexplicable decline in his offensive abilities after his rookie year, and I really don't buy that this is a case of other teams just adjusting to him. He never sneaks into the slot anymore. He never seems to join the play off the rush.

Breaking into the league he was legitimately elite at those two aspects of offense.

Unfortunately, all that sublime offensive instinct that he had seems to be gone with no return anywhere in sight. Schultz certainly has culpability in that fact. But does anyone else think that Dallas Eakins plays a large role in what has transpired with this player? I don't think it's a stretch at all to suggest that Mr. Eakins holds a great deal of responsibility in ruining both Schultz and Yakupov as NHL players in this league to the point that it's unlikely either reaches anywhere near the heights that it looked like they might have coming out of their rookie years. It's so frustrating that him and MacT not only wasted two years of our lives as Oiler fans, but also have potentially irreversibly damaged the careers of a number of players. Hell, RNH doesn't even seem to have his offensive flare anymore that he showed as a younger player.

As it stands right now, there is no way Schultz gets a qualifying offer from the Oilers. This was his "prove it" year, and he's just not brought an ounce of offensive, and while his defensive play has been.... passable at times, that doesn't make up for the fact that 1/3 way through the year he's got 3 assists on the season.

 

[Aceboogie]

Teams on the PK dont even bother to cover Schultz anymore. Its pathetic. They cut away his passing options but leave the shot open because they know hes not taking it

Schultz, wind it up and blast on on net. Itll work

 

[Aceboogie]

Someone had a great post

Since Schultz entered the league, Marchand has more PK goals than Schultz has PP goals

 

[Spawn]

Someone had a great post

Since Schultz entered the league, Marchand has more PK goals than Schultz has PP goals

Marchand has as many PK goals as RNH has PP goals in that same time frame, and his 12 short handed goals is only one fewer than the 13 the Oilers have scored (shorthanded) as a whole in that time period.

Uh oh

Honestly, that stat is more of an indication of how dangerous of a PK player Brad Marchand is than anything else.

 

[McAsuno]

Just a putrid "offensive" d man.

 

[Jet Walters]

Someone had a great post

Since Schultz entered the league, Marchand has more PK goals than Schultz has PP goals

That was me, and Marchand actually has double the SH goals as Schultz has PP goals in that time span. I make trade proposals from time to time for Marchand with the fantasy of he and McDavid on the PK together. Those two could score a SH goal once a week together. Then I get barraged with "he's a cheap shot artist and a third liner" reply's.

I think the big problem for Schultz is the 4 forwards, 1 defenseman set up. He hasn't been given the luxury of being able to jump into the slot under our last few coaches like he did in his rookie year with Krueger. Such is life when you have three quarters of your forwards needing PP time because they are soooooooooo skilled.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

He was at his best when he was able to "disappear", and able to rome around the ice. However the Oilers have gone away from working the puck down low on the PP, and created more of an umbrella style with 4 forwards and 1 defenceman. However that doesn't excuse his craptacular production.



Going back through his highlights from the AHL, he was never an Eirk Karlsson style player, who had the puck on a string, but rather someone whom excelled at sneaking into the play.






However the doesn't explain why the skills he had have seemingly disappeared. When he came into the league I'd argue he was as fast as Hall, nowadays his skating merely gets a "solid" grade, plus his puck handling and even wrist shot seem much worse.

Could his back be that big an hindrance? And if yes, is he anything more than damaged goods moving forward?

 

[TheBusDriver]

Schultz is junk. We gotta trade him asap and put a real d man in his spot.

 

[McAsuno]

He was at his best when he was able to "disappear", and able to rome around the ice. However the Oilers have gone away from working the puck down low on the PP, and created more of an umbrella style with 4 forwards and 1 defenceman. However that doesn't excuse his craptacular production.



Going back through his highlights from the AHL, he was never an Eirk Karlsson style player, who had the puck on a string, but rather someone whom excelled at sneaking into the play.






However the doesn't explain why the skills he had have seemingly disappeared. When he came into the league I'd argue he was as fast as Hall, nowadays his skating merely gets a "solid" grade, plus his puck handling and even wrist shot seem much worse.

Could his back be that big an hindrance? And if yes, is he anything more than damaged goods moving forward?

Who knows. He was outstanding in the AHL. He looks like a junior playing in the NHL.