Blue Jays Discussion: The trade deadline approaches (Tue, Aug 2 at 6pm ET/3pm PT) and the market is taking shape

[The Nemesis]

Previous thread: Blue Jays Discussion: - Save some runs for the other games, guys. (Jays score team record 28 runs in Friday night drubbing of Red Sox. Yes, that says 28. In one game)

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[Dr.Funk]

 

[Hurt]

That's a big price but Castillo is really friggin' good.

Can't imagine what Soto is going to haul from the Dodgers.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

I say we should go after Rodon. He's higher risk, but high reward (at least a 2 starter when healthy), which is what we need. He'll also come cheaper as a rental.

(3.7 WAR) 8-6 3.18era 116ip 91h 39bb 148so 3.7 (95.8MPH AV/FB)



Rodon + Yastremski/Pederson/Gonzales + Doval for ???

You get a 2 starter, lefty outfielder, and reliever. Might be better to just get Rodon and shop for the other parts elsewhere since we don't have great multi-piece offers without including Moreno and Tiedemann.

 

[Dr.Funk]

I want Soto.

Gregory Soto.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Double post.

 

[Dr.Funk]

 

[trellaine201]

Texas is stupid! There 8 games back. Why are they buying. Dumb.

 

[The Nemesis]

Texas is stupid! There 8 games back. Why are they buying. Dumb.

Probably because they spent stupid crazy amounts of money in free agency to get Semien and Seager and they're gonna use those sunk costs to justify it as they power ahead in a vain attempt to dig themselves out of the hole they're in.

 

[phillipmike]

Great timing Otto.

Unless we are getting Ohtani or Soto, would be great to address our needs, preferable with players that need to be added to the 40 man who we would lose anyways and leave the deadline with Moreno, Tiedemann and Orelvis.

Have no problems moving Groshans, Lopez, Kloffenstein, and Hiraldo. Same with Taylor, Van Eyk, Capra, and Francis but they are likely worth close to nothing of substance.

Have guys like Merryweather, Hatch, Kay, Warmoth, and Murray.

Other guys that can be hand depending on the return could be Pearson, Barger, Jimenez, Palmer, Santos and Horwitz.

Could come out of the deadline with no holes and a very solid top 10;

1. Moreno
2. Tiedemann
3. O. Martinez
4. Barriera
5. Toman
6. Kasevich
7. Robberse
8. Beltre
9. Doughty
10. G. Martinez

And you still have a bunch of guys to like from 11-30; Frasso, Juenger, Zueleta, Carter, Machado, De Castro, Meza, Rodon, Danner, Dallas, Brown, Morris, Palmegiani, Pinto, Cano, Mesia, Pardinho, Melean, Ohashi, Hernandez and Aponte.

 

[Blitzkrug]

The Jays are going to get left in the dust with these prices.

Not ideal to say the least. That's a hell of a haul for a guy like Castillo

 

[The Nemesis]

I want Soto.

Gregory Soto.

Soto is going to be pricey and the pen probably needs more than one arm to fix it.

As it stands now:

Romano, Cimber, Garcia are your high-end locks in the pen.

Phelps is relatively reliable but probably shouldn't be a high-leverage guy. He's a very good middle-leverage reliever though. The kind who comes in for an inning to knock out the bottom half of the order with very little risk of implosion.

Richards and Mayza are kind of your swingy "should be good, might blow up" guys who have been good more often than not but have some bumps in the road this season (Richards has mostly been good since he came off the DL, though he did get roughed up in Boston). Mayza gives you lefty value, while Richards probably has a higher ceiling but more risk. In a perfect world Mayza is your lefty specialist who comes with outs on the board to take out a tough lefty or two and Richards is paired with Phelps for middle-leverage.

Banda should probably be better than he has been, but he has to prove he can pitch to his peripherals rather than teasing better performance. His being a lefty is useful but he has moderately pronounced splits over his career so he's kind of redundant with Mayza already better vs lefties. He's eminently replacable

And Castillo is basically the guy who inherits Stripling's long-man/mop-up/emergency fill-in starter role. Though if it comes down to it they can also probably sacrifice this gig to get another better reliever in since they have 2-4 relatively reliable starters depending on whether Berrios levels off at his old performance threshold again and what you think of Stripling's probability of holding up over the rest of the season and becoming the new Estrada.

Sure at minimum you could get one big reliever, swap him with Banda, and call it a day. I'd argue they would be better off adding a second one and replacing Castillo on the understanding that they likely don't need a regular long-man in the pen all the time if Stripling keeps pitching as he has. And if you want to be really ballsy you pick up 3 relievers and someone goes on the DL with a mystery ailment (the only guys with options besides Castillo are the ones who are too good to send down, or the only current lefty in Mayza)

Then in an ideal world you have:

Closer
Romano

High Leverage
Garcia
Cimber
???

Medium Leverage/Specialist
Mayza*
Richards
Phelps
???

Joe Mantiply from the D'Backs isn't a fireballer but he is a strong lefty specialist with a funky delivery. So he would be like lefty Cimber. He also comes with control until 2027. Jimenez or Fulmer from the Tigers would be interesting too. Jimenez has pitched well and has an extra year of control. Fulmer is an ex-starter who might be able to give you 2 innings and while he doesn't have is old starter heat, he's played well as he heads into free agency. Any of these guys would probably cost less than Soto largely because Soto has control for several more years and his status as an actual saves-accruing closer inflates his value over and above functionally similar non-closer relievers.

 

[Blitzkrug]

There's also a good amount of data to suggest Soto isn't as good as his numbers suggest. The dude has basically zero control but gets away with it because he throws absolute gas.

Manitply is an interesting one. His stuff is anything but overpowering but as already alluded to, he's kind of like a Cimber type where his stuff his soft, but it's enhanced/complimented by a janky delivery.

My off the radar suggestion would be call the Pirates and see if you can swing a package deal for Bednar and Bryan Reynolds. Would cost you an absolute assload but you get a high leverage reliever and a switch hitter who would be under team control until 2026.

 

[phillipmike]

Soto is going to be pricey and the pen probably needs more than one arm to fix it.

As it stands now:

Romano, Cimber, Garcia are your high-end locks in the pen.

Phelps is relatively reliable but probably shouldn't be a high-leverage guy. He's a very good middle-leverage reliever though. The kind who comes in for an inning to knock out the bottom half of the order with very little risk of implosion.

Richards and Mayza are kind of your swingy "should be good, might blow up" guys who have been good more often than not but have some bumps in the road this season (Richards has mostly been good since he came off the DL, though he did get roughed up in Boston). Mayza gives you lefty value, while Richards probably has a higher ceiling but more risk. In a perfect world Mayza is your lefty specialist who comes with outs on the board to take out a tough lefty or two and Richards is paired with Phelps for middle-leverage.

Banda should probably be better than he has been, but he has to prove he can pitch to his peripherals rather than teasing better performance. His being a lefty is useful but he has moderately pronounced splits over his career so he's kind of redundant with Mayza already better vs lefties. He's eminently replacable

And Castillo is basically the guy who inherits Stripling's long-man/mop-up/emergency fill-in starter role. Though if it comes down to it they can also probably sacrifice this gig to get another better reliever in since they have 2-4 relatively reliable starters depending on whether Berrios levels off at his old performance threshold again and what you think of Stripling's probability of holding up over the rest of the season and becoming the new Estrada.

Sure at minimum you could get one big reliever, swap him with Banda, and call it a day. I'd argue they would be better off adding a second one and replacing Castillo on the understanding that they likely don't need a regular long-man in the pen all the time if Stripling keeps pitching as he has. And if you want to be really ballsy you pick up 3 relievers and someone goes on the DL with a mystery ailment (the only guys with options besides Castillo are the ones who are too good to send down, or the only current lefty in Mayza)

Then in an ideal world you have:

Closer
Romano

High Leverage
Garcia
Cimber
???

Medium Leverage/Specialist
Mayza*
Richards
Phelps
???

Joe Mantiply from the D'Backs isn't a fireballer but he is a strong lefty specialist with a funky delivery. So he would be like lefty Cimber. He also comes with control until 2027. Jimenez or Fulmer from the Tigers would be interesting too. Jimenez has pitched well and has an extra year of control. Fulmer is an ex-starter who might be able to give you 2 innings and while he doesn't have is old starter heat, he's played well as he heads into free agency. Any of these guys would probably cost less than Soto largely because Soto has control for several more years and his status as an actual saves-accruing closer inflates his value over and above functionally similar non-closer relievers.

It’s not a bad pen if you get some insurance. I trust most of it except for Richards and the funny thing is Richards has the best whiff rate out of the pen for us and the best K% on the team. He just can’t limit HRs and hits.

Soto and Jimenez would be good adds but we went over them. Jimenez is easier to get but Soto not so much.

Eovaldi would be a perfect add. One of the hardest throwers in the league. Kills the Yankees and Rays. Knows the division and can be you starter insurance but also play the multi inning guy out of the pen. Lots of playoff experience with Boston. If not Eovaldi, Syndergaard could do it too. His velo could play higher out of the pen as well.

If you want a traditional reliever the Daniel Bard is a perfect fit. Won’t cost much, misses bats, high K% and has the results in a batter friendly park. Should cost much.

At the letters with Zwelling and BNS brought up Bard, buying low on Joe Trivino, Robertson and Bednar. Says Bednar will probably cost you Orelvis and that’s a non starter. Robertson can be had but he will go to the highest bidder which is likely to be someone else. They like Lange out of Detroit but they won’t be trading him. Anthony Bass is having a great season. Also said Mantiply will be moved but I’m not a fan.

It’s a shame pens aren’t more consistent, a few ex Jays are doing well;

Bass: 1.4 WAR
Jason Adam: 1.2 WAR
Bryan Baker: 0.9 WAR
Jesse Chavez: 0.7 WAR
Brad Hand: 0.5 WAR



But I agree here. Rather deal with the rental market prices.

There's also a good amount of data to suggest Soto isn't as good as his numbers suggest. The dude has basically zero control but gets away with it because he throws absolute gas.

Manitply is an interesting one. His stuff is anything but overpowering but as already alluded to, he's kind of like a Cimber type where his stuff his soft, but it's enhanced/complimented by a janky delivery.

My off the radar suggestion would be call the Pirates and see if you can swing a package deal for Bednar and Bryan Reynolds. Would cost you an absolute assload but you get a high leverage reliever and a switch hitter who would be under team control until 2026.

I like a Reynolds and Bednar package too. But at least one of Moreno or Kirk have to go back plus more and I don’t know I do that.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

There's also a good amount of data to suggest Soto isn't as good as his numbers suggest. The dude has basically zero control but gets away with it because he throws absolute gas.

Manitply is an interesting one. His stuff is anything but overpowering but as already alluded to, he's kind of like a Cimber type where his stuff his soft, but it's enhanced/complimented by a janky delivery.

My off the radar suggestion would be call the Pirates and see if you can swing a package deal for Bednar and Bryan Reynolds. Would cost you an absolute assload but you get a high leverage reliever and a switch hitter who would be under team control until 2026.

Yup. The guy has great stuff but he's also a guy who can implode in an inning and cost you a game (4bb/9ip). I preferred Chafin before the vax info. Mantiply would be my other target from the left side. We may just be better off bringing up Tiedemann in the playoffs.

 

[phillipmike]

Literally word for word this guy and I posted the same stats, at around the same time of day;



And this is important to note too;

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Field General or Backstop?: Evaluating the catcher's influence on pitcher performance - Baseball Prospectus

What do we know about catching?

www.baseballprospectus.com

[C]atcher game-calling isn't a statistically significant skill, I'm well aware that many of you will want to see the results for your favorite catcher, or to review how other catchers measured up. I've listed seasonal and career RPR and XRA for most catchers in the appendix. Just keep in mind that the results are almost certainly due to randomness rather than aptitude.

 

[The Nemesis]

It’s not a bad pen if you get some insurance. I trust most of it except for Richards and the funny thing is Richards has the best whiff rate out of the pen for us and the best K% on the team. He just can’t limit HRs and hits.

Soto and Jimenez would be good adds but we went over them. Jimenez is easier to get but Soto not so much.

Eovaldi would be a perfect add. One of the hardest throwers in the league. Kills the Yankees and Rays. Knows the division and can be you starter insurance but also play the multi inning guy out of the pen. Lots of playoff experience with Boston. If not Eovaldi, Syndergaard could do it too. His velo could play higher out of the pen as well.

If you want a traditional reliever the Daniel Bard is a perfect fit. Won’t cost much, misses bats, high K% and has the results in a batter friendly park. Should cost much.

At the letters with Zwelling and BNS brought up Bard, buying low on Joe Trivino, Robertson and Bednar. Says Bednar will probably cost you Orelvis and that’s a non starter. Robertson can be had but he will go to the highest bidder which is likely to be someone else. They like Lange out of Detroit but they won’t be trading him. Anthony Bass is having a great season. Also said Mantiply will be moved but I’m not a fan.

It’s a shame pens aren’t more consistent, a few ex Jays are doing well;

Bass: 1.4 WAR
Jason Adam: 1.2 WAR
Bryan Baker: 0.9 WAR
Jesse Chavez: 0.7 WAR
Brad Hand: 0.5 WAR



But I agree here. Rather deal with the rental market prices.



I like a Reynolds and Bednar package too. But at least one of Moreno or Kirk have to go back plus more and I don’t know I do that.

Seeing Hand doing well makes me irrationally angry given how much of a bust he was for the Jays. Him and Drew Storen.

also I think that while the Jays would go the rental route on expensive relievers, I don't think they're above taking on guys who cheap deals with control. It's how they got Cimber and Richards. If someone's just getting into their arb years then you've got a chance to have a good reliever for 2-4 more years. And if they happen to pumpkin it's not a big deal to bury or cut them since they're not making like $5m a season.

 

[TGB]

What the Jays really need is for the rotation to stabilize which is something that isn't going to be fixed by grabbing a starter. Their best bet going forward is to solidify the bullpen to preserve those shaky starts. They should still get the starter but this rotation has already proven it can dominate. They just need to figure out how to get back on track.

So going on what the Mariners gave up for Castillo, it would have cost Moreno, Tiedman, and Lopez to get him. Yeah, way too costly. Looks like the Jays will be trading with the Athletics again, lol.

 

[MAB1]

I'd still take Montas from Oakland if the price isn't inflated like the Mariners-Reds trade. Groshans + Jimenez + Lopez + Robberse is about = in value and still keeps Moreno, Tiedmann, Martinez, Zulu, Pearson in the farm.

Starting pitching is something you can never have too much of. Manoah-Gausman and whoever is pitching the best out of Montas/Berrios/Stripling for the third game gives the Jays plenty of depth. And should they win that round they'd still have 2 of Berrios/Montas/Stripling for the first two games of the ALDS. If Kikuchi can maintain his command, he could be a great option to be the long-man in the bullpen come playoff time or a lefty specialist and saves them needing an extra BP arm (Kikuchi has very good #'s against LHB this year).

 

[stats1]

I wonder about Rondon. SF are now 2 games under .500 and 4 games back of the WC. They have really struggled lately

 

[Blitzkrug]

San Fran is only four games out of a wild card spot and the teams in front of them aren't exactly barn burners.

It's going to be interesting to see what kind of effect those new wild card spots have on the market. With it being more accessible there's going to be teams that are going to try and push when they probably shouldn't. Texas and San Francisco likely being the most obvious ones.

 

[stats1]

I wonder about Rondon. SF are now 2 games under .500 and 4 games back of the WC. They have really struggled lately

Sorry double post

 

[phillipmike]

The Rockies always stay true to themselves.

 

[stats1]

Jon Morosi reporting Jays are interested in Fullmer. No surprise considering he threw a scoreless 8th inning and has a solid season. Most important question and I guess the only question now is what’s the price