The Team Leader in Points Per... May Surprise You!

[Boomhower]

I wanted to look further into how Weiss was performing in his minimal role and immediately noticed he is producing at a higher offensive point per minute rate than the leading scorer. So I compared him to the perceived top scorers on the team.

Since Zetterberg leads the team in total time on ice, I projected how many points the other players would have recorded if they played the same amount of minutes (930) as Zetterberg and continued to score at their current rate.

The results? Weiss would be the leading scorer with 56 points.

Henrik Zetterberg
930 TOI = 48 points
17% of IT on PP

Pavel Datsyuk
705 TOI (x1.32 = 930 TOI)
35 points (X1.32 = 46 points)
18% of IT on PP

Gustav Nyquist
817 TOI (X1.14 = 930 TOI)
37 points (X1.14 = 42 points)
17%o IT on PP

Stephen Weiss
282 TOI (X3.3 = 930 TOI)
17 points (X3.3 = 56 points)
19% of IT on PP

I know there are a ton of variables when considering offensive numbers. But as you can see; they all play similar percentages of PP time and none of the four players kill penalties. Weiss of course faces lesser opponents/matchups, but he also has lesser offensively inclined linemates.

It would be a stretch to say Weiss is the best offensive player on the team this year. But I thought this was an interesting (albeit very basic) baseline test to show that Stephen Weiss is back and producing at an incredible clip this season.


EDIT: Just did a little more digging. Maybe more Impressive stat than his per... The Wings simply win games when Weiss plays; Crazy.
With Stephen Weiss: 19-4-2
No Stephen Weiss: 9-7-7

Click to read more...

 

[TimoneX]

Nice. Thanks for posting this. A healthy and confident Stephen Weiss makes the Wings a handful to match up against IMO.

 

[LarKing]

Weiss has been great and would be producing more if he weren't condemned to the fourth line half the games.

 

[Retire91]

Nice the worst part about the signing has been all the injuries guy just can't stay on the ice. Its nice to see some statisitcs show he has an impact though. Would be nice if he can stay helathy and get a bigger sample size

 

[Henkka]

Did already know this... Weiss has been good on the icetime he gets.

Could anyone know how can we compare those points with quality of compeitition?

If Zetterberg has 48 points with highest competition (-1.014), how much easier is it for Weiss to score those "56 points" with a lot easier (4th lowest in team) competition level (-2.469)...? The relative different of their quality of competition is huge.

 

[Boomhower]

Did already know this...

Could anyone know how can we compare those points with quality of compeitition?

If Zetterberg has 48 points with highest competition (-1.014), how much easier is it for Weiss to score those "56 points" with a lot easier (4th lowest in team) competition level (-2.469)...? The relative different of their quality of competition is huge.

Absolutely. I pointed out it is very basic and variables are being ignored.
But if strength of competition is considered, so should offensive skills of linemates.

These are too advanced for the likes of me.
Just pointing out.. in his current role dude is producing like crazy.

 

[Hendricks433]

Did already know this... Weiss has been good on the icetime he gets.

Could anyone know how can we compare those points with quality of compeitition?

If Zetterberg has 48 points with highest competition (-1.014), how much easier is it for Weiss to score those "56 points" with a lot easier (4th lowest in team) competition level (-2.469)...? The relative different of their quality of competition is huge.

Yea Z is facing top competition while Weiss is facing 3rd and 4th lines.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Absolutely. I pointed out it is very basic and variables are being ignored.
But if strength of competition is considered, so should offensive skills of linemates.

These are too advanced for the likes of me.
Just pointing out.. in his current role dude is producing like crazy.

He has produced nicely. He's hardly put up the majority of his points from the 4th line though. Most of it has been with Datsyuk/Sheahan/Tatar/etc. or on the PP. Numbers can look better than reality sometimes, in the case of Weiss it's easy to believe he'd produce 3 times the points if he just got 3 times the ice-time, but I don't think that's true. He's had some rough games and sometimes looks a bit lost defensively. In order to be a top 6 player on a Babcock team he still has work to do. But in a bottom 6+PP role he's been a great addition for us this season.

 

[rx7dryver]

How many would Cleary have?

 

[ap3x]

EDIT: Just did a little more digging. Maybe more Impressive stat than his per... The Wings simply win games when Weiss plays; Crazy.
With Stephen Weiss: 19-4-2
No Stephen Weiss: 9-7-7

I was aware of the first part, but not really of the second one. I didn't expect such a huge difference. Great record so far.

 

[Henkka]

How many would Cleary have?

Maybe ~20 points.

 

[Bench]

Minutes aren't all equal, is the problem with just doubling or tripling them and getting numbers. And he has scored 5 points in his last 4 games. Remove that small stretch and things don't look so peachy when you're extrapolating by a multiplier of 3.

And while I'm happy with Weiss in his limited role, at $5 million for 3 years after this, he's not really having the impact we were hoping for. Regardless, the team is winning, so it's hard to be overly critical of ice time and usage when the current scheme is working. Weiss, at the very least, will continue to get favorable match-ups and hopefully exploit that.

 

[14ari13]

I wanted to look further into how Weiss was performing in his minimal role and immediately noticed he is producing at a higher offensive point per minute rate than the leading scorer. So I compared him to the perceived top scorers on the team.

Since Zetterberg leads the team in total time on ice, I projected how many points the other players would have recorded if they played the same amount of minutes (930) as Zetterberg and continued to score at their current rate.

The results? Weiss would be the leading scorer with 56 points.

Henrik Zetterberg
930 TOI = 48 points
17% of IT on PP

Pavel Datsyuk
705 TOI (x1.32 = 930 TOI)
35 points (X1.32 = 46 points)
18% of IT on PP

Gustav Nyquist
817 TOI (X1.14 = 930 TOI)
37 points (X1.14 = 42 points)
17%o IT on PP

Stephen Weiss
282 TOI (X3.3 = 930 TOI)
17 points (X3.3 = 56 points)
19% of IT on PP

I know there are a ton of variables when considering offensive numbers. But as you can see; they all play similar percentages of PP time and none of the four players kill penalties. Weiss of course faces lesser opponents/matchups, but he also has lesser offensively inclined linemates.

It would be a stretch to say Weiss is the best offensive player on the team this year. But I thought this was an interesting (albeit very basic) baseline test to show that Stephen Weiss is back and producing at an incredible clip this season.


EDIT: Just did a little more digging. Maybe more Impressive stat than his per... The Wings simply win games when Weiss plays; Crazy.
With Stephen Weiss: 19-4-2
No Stephen Weiss: 9-7-7

This is not a surprise to me at all.
19-6 vs 9-14 is real impressive.
I like his game.
I really like what he, Sheanen, Helm, Abdelkader bring to the table.

I would like to see those kind of stats on DeKeyser cause I assume it would be the same.

 

[Flowah]

He's getting points but I'm with Bench. He's not looking like an impact player out there. He's still coughing it up far too much and losing too many battles. Datsyuk, Tatar, Nyquist, Zetterberg, Helm, Sheahan. Those guys are making an impact. They drive play. Weiss is there picking up points but he's not driving play.

Oh well. I'll take the production I guess.

 

[14ari13]

Minutes aren't all equal, is the problem with just doubling or tripling them and getting numbers. And he has scored 5 points in his last 4 games. Remove that small stretch and things don't look so peachy when you're extrapolating by a multiplier of 3.

And while I'm happy with Weiss in his limited role, at $5 million for 3 years after this, he's not really having the impact we were hoping for. Regardless, the team is winning, so it's hard to be overly critical of ice time and usage when the current scheme is working. Weiss, at the very least, will continue to get favorable match-ups and hopefully exploit that.

You can't get the best from all the players all the time.
They all have their ups and downs.

 

[Bench]

You can't get the best from all the players all the time.
They all have their ups and downs.

I agree. But I'm not sure what you're driving at?

 

[needzmoarcleary]

Interesting seeing those numbers. I still think the guy has some stuff going on upstairs and might be worried about getting re-injured, maybe playing "safer" so to speak. I'm glad to see him playing and producing. I think if he can go a somewhat extended period of time injury free then we might see him step up his tenacity and drive a bit. As long as he keeps producing (given his TOI and linemates) and wings keep winning I'd be happy.

 

[Frk It]

He's getting points but I'm with Bench. He's not looking like an impact player out there. He's still coughing it up far too much and losing too many battles. Datsyuk, Tatar, Nyquist, Zetterberg, Helm, Sheahan. Those guys are making an impact. They drive play. Weiss is there picking up points but he's not driving play.

Oh well. I'll take the production I guess.

Trade him while he has some value. We have plenty of top 9 guys to choose from next year. We should probably unload that contract if we can, because I doubt Babcock will ever use him as more than a depth winger.

 

[Actual Thought*]

Trade him while he has some value. We have plenty of top 9 guys to choose from next year. We should probably unload that contract if we can, because I doubt Babcock will ever use him as more than a depth winger.

Why do you believe that?

 

[Frk It]

Why do you believe that?

Beat writers have echoed this..

Weiss, a career center, said he's adjusted to playing the wing. He's likely to remain there permanently since Riley Sheahan's strong two-way play has elevated him on the depth chart.

http://www.mlive.com/redwings/index.ssf/2015/01/red_wings_stephen_weiss_trying.html

I've seen it mentioned more than once I'm pretty sure. Maybe a new coach would think otherwise, but Babcock doesn't seem to think he's suited for it.

 

[Mijatovic]

Weiss is there picking up points but he's not driving play.

Nyquist is so very much this problem right now. Say what you will about his goals and points. Majority are on the PP. Last season he was scoring 5v5 constantly. This season, he cant seem to get a decent attempt on net in 5v5.

I am so very disappointed with Nyquists play. I dont see how other people dont see it. Bar the PP making his stats look much better, he isnt the same as last season.

Here are the stats: 50 GP, 20G with 12 on PP, that means 8 5v5 Goals
Last Year: 57 GP, 28G with 6 on the PP, which means 22 5v5 Goals.

He is under half of his 5v5 production last year. That is a big problem and we cannot rely on PP's to win us games.

 

[Fugu]

What about Tatar?

 

[Mijatovic]

Tatar drives 5v5. Eye test.

Stats back it up. Only 7 of his 22 Goals on the Powerplay.

 

[aar000n]

Weiss has been great and would be producing more if he weren't condemned to the fourth line half the games.

This weiss min should be 3rd line I like him in the 2nd.

 

[FissionFire]

With all the hockey Weiss missed the past few seasons I think Babcock is utilizing him perfectly. He's put him on the wing to lessen his mental responsibilities and limited his minutes to let him get his body used to the game again. I think Weiss isn't quite ready for big minutes yet. I'll bet next year if Babcock is still around and Weiss has another healthy offseason to really get his conditioning and body into peak form he'll be in a much larger role with a big jump in his minutes.